Netanyahu's Congress gamble could backfire on Israel

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Barack Obama ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Political Candidates ◽  
Framework Agreement ◽  
Obama Administration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Intelligence Sharing ◽  
Senior Administration

Significance The speech comes two weeks before Israeli parliamentary elections on March 17 and a looming end of March deadline for reaching a framework agreement on Iran's nuclear programme. Netanyahu's speech aims to convince Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, which President Barack Obama has threatened to veto. The Obama administration accuses Netanyahu of trying to sabotage Iran negotiations and of meddling in US politics, while Netanyahu counters that world powers appear to have given up on their pledge to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. The president and other senior administration officials have refused to meet Netanyahu during his visit, which was orchestrated by Republican Congressional leaders without White House coordination, citing the long-standing policy of not appearing with foreign political candidates close to elections. Impacts Some Democratic lawmakers will boycott Netanyahu's speech, threatening to erode bipartisan support for Israel in Congress. US distrust of Netanyahu is limiting intelligence sharing, and could disrupt military cooperation, including some Israeli defence sales. The Obama administration could respond to the tensions by supporting a UNSC resolution laying out the parameters of a two state solution.

US armed UAV precedent will hinder global rules-making

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
International Norms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intelligence Sharing ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Wide Range

Subject Post-Obama armed UAV policy. Significance As President Barack Obama prepares to leave office in January 2017, his administration has called for the United States to lead development of a set of international norms to govern the use of armed UAVs ('unmanned aerial vehicles' or 'drones'). The international proliferation and military use of armed UAVs by nations outside the circle of trusted US allies have highlighted the urgency of formulating clearly articulated international rules to govern an otherwise vaguely defined arena of international behaviour dominated by US precedent. Impacts Congressional aversion to supporting ground interventions abroad will enable the next president further to delay UAV policy reform. A wide range of countries frustrated with restrictions from Washington may turn to China as a key supplier of armed UAVs. Failed US efforts to reform the covert drone programme may complicate intelligence-sharing with European allies.

Global Magnitsky Act will extend US sanctions reach

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Extrajudicial Killings ◽  
Official Corruption ◽  
National Defence

Subject The US Global Magnitsky Act. Significance Congress passed the Global Magnitsky Act as part of an annual national defence bill on December 8 and President Barack Obama is expected to sign it before the end of the year. The legislation allows the president to impose sanctions against individuals tied to official corruption and extrajudicial killings carried out in retaliation for uncovering illegal or corrupt acts. Impacts Jurisdictions in Australia, Canada, Singapore and the United Kingdom may also seek to boost real estate transparency. The White House may use its new sanctioning powers to pressure Iran and burnish its anti-Tehran credentials. The example set by Trump’s future use of the Global Magnitsky Act will be directly correlated with its chance of renewal in 2022.

US influence in South-east Asia is likely to wane

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House

Significance Trump had said his attendance was certain, but now he appears less sure. This is raising fresh questions about his administration’s policy towards South-east Asia, a region which received more attention under his predecessor, Barack Obama. Impacts Less US influence in ASEAN could benefit China, though ASEAN states will still seek US involvement to hedge against Beijing. US policy towards South-east Asia will be driven more by Congress than the White House. The White House is unlikely to prioritise good governance or human rights over trade initiatives.

US F-16 sale will strengthen Taiwan's China-sceptics

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Total Price ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject The US decision to sell advanced F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan. Significance The Trump administration has authorised the sale to Taiwan of 66 advanced F-16 fighter jets, the most coveted item among Taipei's wish-list of arms purchases from the United States. Taiwan has sought the purchase of advanced fighter aircraft for years, but the White House under both George W Bush and Barack Obama agreed only to upgrades for Taiwan's existing F-16 fleet. The total price is estimated to reach about 8 billion dollars. Impacts The arms sale will provide a boost in confidence for Taiwan, which has been falling behind China in defence capabilities. US-Taiwan cooperation will increase, despite Washington not formally recognising Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taipei will seek dialogue with Beijing, but will be rebuffed at least until after the 2020 elections. Any sanctions China imposes because of the arms sale will probably be folded into future trade negotiations with Washington.

Solih’s government could fragment in the Maldives

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Government

Subject The new Maldivian government. Significance Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, inaugurated in November after winning the presidential election in September, last month visited Delhi as part of efforts to re-establish the Maldives’s traditional ‘India First’ policy. Solih’s government, an alliance of parties that coalesced to oppose authoritarian, pro-China former President Abdulla Yameen, is implementing domestic reforms at pace. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for April. Impacts The re-entry into politics of formerly jailed politicians and officials will increase factionalism in the government. Indian influence in the Maldives will grow while Chinese influence will diminish, with Delhi likely to increase military cooperation. The Maldives will formally rejoin the Commonwealth.

Prospects for the United States in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Third ◽  
Global Entrepreneurship ◽  
Government Shutdown

Subject Prospects for the United States in the third quarter. Significance The third quarter will see President Barack Obama visit Kenya for the Global Entrepreneurship Summit on July 25-26. As the president travels, Washington will see Congress move further towards gridlock; appropriation committees will pass funding bills for fiscal year 2016 that will meet a White House veto. Resolution -- and some bipartisan compromise -- will be necessary before October 1; a government shutdown on that date is highly unlikely, but possible.

White House may ease Myanmar sanctions in May

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
International Crime ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Clinton Presidency ◽  
Legislative Measures

Subject Outlook for US sanctions on Myanmar. Significance In mid-May, President Barack Obama is expected to announce his decision on whether to renew the administration's sanctions on Myanmar under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Impacts Obama may defer major changes in sanctions policy for an assumed Hillary Clinton presidency, bolstering her political capital. Republicans could use any sanctions decision by Obama as justification to delay other legislative measures. The SDN list will probably be retained to help tackle human rights abuses, drug trafficking and other international crime in Myanmar. Myanmar's new government may lobby Washington to maintain US sanctions for now.

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Face

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2016. Significance President Barack Obama will leave office in January 2017, following the election of his successor on November 8, 2016. With most of his domestic agenda stalled in the face of a hostile Republican Congress, Obama is likely to turn to the international stage in 2016 to cement his political legacy. Meanwhile, the White House will also have to manage an array of international crises during an election year.

Brexit impact on UK-US ties will hinge on new leaders

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Data Transfer ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Position ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK 'Brexit' referendum's impact on US foreign policy. Significance President Barack Obama lobbied hard for the United Kingdom to remain in the EU, citing the need for a strong and trusted US partner within the organisation. The referendum results in favour of leaving ('Brexit') are clearly a setback that could curtail long-standing US economic, political and security interests in Europe. Impacts The United Kingdom may seek to use the upcoming NATO summit to regain some international stature following the Brexit vote. Brexit will complicate UK-US as well as EU-UK data transfer arrangements. Some Republicans' pro-Brexit positions are more likely to reflect political manoeuvring against the White House than a firm policy position.

Horowitz US poll probe implies new judicial risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Justice Department ◽  
Inspector General ◽  
Obama Administration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House

Significance The meeting is part of an agreement reached at the White House on May 21. That followed President Donald Trump's May 20 call for a probe into whether the FBI or justice department infiltrated his 2016 presidential campaign at the behest of the former Obama administration (2009-17). The same day, independent Inspector General Michael Horowitz was ordered by the justice department to expand his investigations to determine whether there was any impropriety in FBI investigations of Trump’s campaign. Impacts Trump will continue his tactic of undermining the credibility of the investigations, and belittle their participants. Congress may introduce bills to limit the president’s influence over the justice department. If Mueller, Rosenstein, Sessions or others were sacked, this would not necessarily stop investigations facing the White House. Concerns over FBI or justice department partisanship, and independence, will likely be election issues in November.

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