scholarly journals A global indicator of the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain biological diversity under climate change: the Bioclimatic Ecosystem Resilience Index

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Ferrier ◽  
Thomas D Harwood ◽  
Chris Ware ◽  
Andrew J Hoskins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Spatial Configuration ◽  
Natural Habitat ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Ecosystem Resilience ◽  
Forest Change ◽  
Habitat Condition ◽  
Resilience Index ◽  
Projected Changes

AbstractAn important element of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi Target 15 – i.e. to enhance “ecosystem resilience … through conservation and restoration” – remains largely unaddressed by existing indicators. We here develop an indicator addressing just one of many possible dimensions of ecosystem resilience, by focusing on the capacity of ecosystems to retain biological diversity in the face of ongoing, and uncertain, climate change. The Bioclimatic Ecosystem Resilience Index (BERI) assesses the extent to which a given spatial configuration of natural habitat will promote or hinder climate-induced shifts in biological distributions. The approach uses existing global modelling of spatial turnover in species composition within three broad biological groups (plants, invertebrates and vertebrates) to scale projected changes in composition under a plausible range of climate scenarios. These projections serve as filters through which to analyse the configuration of habitat observed at a given point in time (e.g. for a particular year) – represented as a grid in which cells are scored in terms of habitat condition. BERI is then calculated, for each cell in this grid, as a function of the connectedness of that cell to areas of natural habitat in the surrounding landscape which are projected to support a similar composition of species under climate change to that currently associated with the focal cell. All analyses are performed at 30-arcsecond grid resolution (approximately 1km cells at the equator). Results can then be aggregated to report on status and trends for any desired set of reporting units – e.g. ecoregions, countries, or ecosystem types. We present example outputs for the Moist Tropical Forest Biome, based on a habitat-condition time series derived from the Global Forest Change dataset. We also describe how BERI is now being extended to cover all biomes (forest and non-forest) across the entire terrestrial surface of the planet.

scholarly journals Reduced resilience of terrestrial ecosystems locally is not reflected on a global scale

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuhao Feng ◽  
Haojie Su ◽  
Zhiyao Tang ◽  
Shaopeng Wang ◽  
Xia Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Ecological Resilience ◽  
Terrestrial Vegetation ◽  
Ecosystem Resilience

AbstractGlobal climate change likely alters the structure and function of vegetation and the stability of terrestrial ecosystems. It is therefore important to assess the factors controlling ecosystem resilience from local to global scales. Here we assess terrestrial vegetation resilience over the past 35 years using early warning indicators calculated from normalized difference vegetation index data. On a local scale we find that climate change reduced the resilience of ecosystems in 64.5% of the global terrestrial vegetated area. Temperature had a greater influence on vegetation resilience than precipitation, while climate mean state had a greater influence than climate variability. However, there is no evidence for decreased ecological resilience on larger scales. Instead, climate warming increased spatial asynchrony of vegetation which buffered the global-scale impacts on resilience. We suggest that the response of terrestrial ecosystem resilience to global climate change is scale-dependent and influenced by spatial asynchrony on the global scale.

Climate-forced changes of bio-productivity of Belorussian terrestrial ecosystems

2019 ◽  
pp. 77-88
Author(s):  
S. A. Lysenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Current Century ◽  
The Impact

The spatial and temporal particularities of Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) changes over territory of Belarus in the current century and their relationship with climate change were investigated. The rise of NDVI is observed at approximately 84% of the Belarus area. The statistically significant growth of NDVI has exhibited at nearly 35% of the studied area (t-test at 95% confidence interval), which are mainly forests and undeveloped areas. Croplands vegetation index is largely descending. The main factor of croplands bio-productivity interannual variability is precipitation amount in vegetation period. This factor determines more than 60% of the croplands NDVI dispersion. The long-term changes of NDVI could be explained by combination of two factors: photosynthesis intensifying action of carbon dioxide and vegetation growth suppressing action of air warming with almost unchanged precipitation amount. If the observed climatic trend continues the croplands bio-productivity in many Belarus regions could be decreased at more than 20% in comparison with 2000 year. The impact of climate change on the bio-productivity of undeveloped lands is only slightly noticed on the background of its growth in conditions of rising level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick L. Barnard ◽  
Jenifer E. Dugan ◽  
Henry M. Page ◽  
Nathan J. Wood ◽  
Juliette A. Finzi Hart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Coastal Systems ◽  
Projected Changes

AbstractAs the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

scholarly journals Mediterranean Olive Orchards under Climate Change: A Review of Future Impacts and Adaptation Strategies

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Helder Fraga ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Luisa Leolini ◽  
João A. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is an ancient traditional crop in the Mediterranean Basin. In the Mediterranean region, traditional olive orchards are distinguishable by their prevailing climatic conditions. Olive trees are indeed considered one of the most suitable and best-adapted species to the Mediterranean-type climate. However, new challenges are predicted to arise from climate change, threatening this traditional crop. The Mediterranean Basin is considered a climate change “hotspot,” as future projections hint at considerable warming and drying trends. Changes in olive tree suitability have already been reported over the last few decades. In this context, climate change may become particularly challenging for olive growers. The growing evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation measures to be taken. To effectively cope with the projected changes, both short and long-term adaptation strategies must be timely planned by the sector stakeholders and decision-makers to adapt for a warmer and dryer future. The current manuscript is devoted to illustrating the main impacts of climate change on olive tree cultivation in the Mediterranean Basin, by reviewing the most recent studies on this subject. Additionally, an analysis of possible adaptation strategies against the potentially negative impacts of climate change was also performed.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Assessment Indicator of Ecosystem Resilience in Central Asia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Xue Fan ◽  
Xingming Hao ◽  
Haichao Hao ◽  
Jingjing Zhang ◽  
Yuanhang Li
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Ecosystem Resilience ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Grassland Vegetation ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Casa Model ◽  
Assessment Indicator ◽  
Multiple Dimensions ◽  
Resilience Index

The ecosystems in the arid inland areas of Central Asia are fragile and severely degraded. Understanding and assessing ecosystem resilience is a challenge facing ecosystems. Based on the net primary productivity (NPP) data estimated by the CASA model, this study conducted a quantitative analysis of the ecosystem’s resilience and comprehensively reflected its resilience from multiple dimensions. Furthermore, a comprehensive resilience index was constructed. The result showed that plain oasis’s ecosystem resilience is the highest, followed by deserts and mountainous areas. From the perspective of vegetation types, the highest resilience is artificial vegetation and the lowest is forest. In warm deserts, the resilience is higher in shrubs and meadows and lower in grassland vegetation. High coverage and biomass are not the same as the strong adaptability of the ecosystem. Moderate and slightly inelastic areas mainly dominate the ecosystem resilience of the study area. The new method is easy to use. The evaluation result is reliable. It can quantitatively analyze the resilience latitude and recovery rate, a beneficial improvement to the current ecosystem resilience evaluation.

A coupled multi-proxy and process modelling approach for extraction of quantitative terrestrial ecosystem information from speleothems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Lechleitner ◽  
Christopher C. Day ◽  
Oliver Kost ◽  
Micah Wilhelm ◽  
Negar Haghipour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Respiration ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Clear Correlation ◽  
Northern Spain ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Global Carbon

<p>Terrestrial ecosystems are intimately linked with the global climate system, but their response to ongoing and future anthropogenic climate change remains poorly understood. Reconstructing the response of terrestrial ecosystem processes over past periods of rapid and substantial climate change can serve as a tool to better constrain the sensitivity in the ecosystem-climate response.</p><p>In this talk, we will present a new reconstruction of soil respiration in the temperate region of Western Europe based on speleothem carbon isotopes (δ<sup>13</sup>C). Soil respiration remains poorly constrained over past climatic transitions, but is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and its response to ongoing anthropogenic warming. Our study builds upon two decades of speleothem research in Western Europe, which has shown clear correlation between δ<sup>13</sup>C and regional temperature reconstructions during the last glacial and the deglaciation, with exceptional regional coherency in timing, amplitude, and absolute δ<sup>13</sup>C variation. By combining innovative multi-proxy geochemical analysis (δ<sup>13</sup>C, Ca isotopes, and radiocarbon) on three speleothems from Northern Spain, and quantitative forward modelling of processes in soil, karst, and cave, we show how deglacial variability in speleothem δ<sup>13</sup>C is best explained by increasing soil respiration. Our study is the first to quantify and remove the effects of prior calcite precipitation (PCP, using Ca isotopes) and bedrock dissolution (open vs closed system, using the radiocarbon reservoir effect) from the speleothem δ<sup>13</sup>C signal to derive changes in respired δ<sup>13</sup>C over time. Our approach allows us to estimate the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Q<sub>10</sub>), which is higher than current measurements, suggesting that part of the speleothem signal may be related to a change in the composition of the soil respired δ<sup>13</sup>C. This is likely related to changing substrate through increasing contribution from vegetation biomass with the onset of the Holocene.</p><p>These results highlight the exciting possibilities speleothems offer as a coupled archive for quantitative proxy-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem conditions.</p>

Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 3

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Ostoja ◽  
Tapan Pathak ◽  
Katherine Jarvis-Shean ◽  
Mark Battany ◽  
George Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Agricultural Economy ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
The Face ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Large Acreage ◽  
On Farm

The agricultural economy is more vulnerable to projected changes in climate in some California counties than in others. This flyer highlights on-farm adaptation strategies to mitigate some of the effects of increased winter temperatures and more frequent summer heatwaves. Projected conditions will put the most strain on heat intolerant crops and crops with high chill requirements. When crops with these characteristics also have a high market value or are grown in large acreage, counties can be at risk for economic declines. Information on this flyer identifies the most vulnerable counties in California Area 3 for some key, climate-sensitive crops.

Mediterranean climate change projections: an update from CMIP5 and CMIP6.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Cos ◽  
Francisco J Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Martin Jury
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Weighting Scheme ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Model Weighting

<p>The Mediterranean has been identified as a climate change hot-spot due to increased warming trends and precipitation decline. Recently, CMIP6 was found to show a higher climate sensitivity than its predecessor CMIP5, potentially further exacerbating related impacts on the Mediterranean region.</p><p>To estimate the impacts of the ongoing climate change on the region, we compare projections of various CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments and scenarios. In particular, we focus on summer and winter changes in temperature and precipitation for the 21st century under RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as well as the high resolution HighResMIP experiments. Additionally, to give robust estimates of projected changes we apply a novel model weighting scheme, accounting for historical performance and inter-independence of the multi-member multi-model ensembles, using ERA5, JRA55 and WFDE5 as observational reference. </p><p>Our results indicate a significant and robust warming over the Mediterranean during the 21st century irrespective of the used ensemble and experiments. Nevertheless, the often attested amplified Mediterranean warming is only found for summer. The projected changes vary between the CMIP5 and CMIP6, with the latter projecting a stronger warming. For the high emission scenarios and without weighting, CMIP5 indicates a warming between 4 and 7.7ºC in summer and 2.7 and 5ºC in winter, while CMIP6 projects temperature increases between 5.6 and 9.2ºC in summer and 3.2 to 6.8ºC in winter until 2081-2100 in respect to 1985-2005. In contrast to temperature, precipitation changes show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, for the high emission scenario, a robust decline in precipitation is projected for large parts of the Mediterranean during summer. First results applying the model weighting scheme indicate reductions in CMIP6 and increases in CMIP5 warming trends, thereby reducing differences between the two ensembles.</p>

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