scholarly journals Modeling Mayaro and Chikungunya Control Strategies in Rio de Janeiro Outbreaks

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esteban Dodero-Rojas ◽  
Luiza G. Ferreira ◽  
Vitor B. P. Leite ◽  
José N. Onuchic ◽  
Vinícius G. Contessoto

AbstractMosquito-borne diseases have become a significant health issue in many regions around the world. For tropical countries, diseases such as Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya, became epidemic in the last decades. Health surveillance reports during this period were crucial in providing scientific-based information to guide decision making and resources allocation to control outbreaks. In this work, we perform data analysis of last Chikungunya epidemics in the city of Rio de Janeiro by applying a compartmental mathematical model. We estimate the “basic reproduction number” for those outbreaks and predict the potential epidemic outbreak of Mayaro virus. We also simulated several scenarios with different public interventions to decrease the number of infected people. Such scenarios should provide insights about possible strategies to control future outbreaks.

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Hongwu Tan ◽  
Hui Cao

We build and study the transmission dynamics of a hand-foot-mouth disease model with vaccination. The reproduction number is given, the existence of equilibria is obtained, and the global stability of disease-free equilibrium is proved by constructing the Lyapunov function. We also apply optimal control theory to the hand-foot-mouth disease model. The treatment and vaccination interventions are considered in the hand-foot-mouth disease model, and the optimal control strategies based on minimizing the cost of intervention and minimizing the number of the infected people are given. Numerical results show the usefulness of the optimization strategies.


2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (26) ◽  
pp. 98-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
MONICA LIMA

O artigo trata sobre aspectos que definem a importá¢ncia do sá­tio histórico e arqueológico Cais do Valongo, situado na cidade do Rio de Janeiro, para a história da escravização de africanos e seus descendentes nas Américas e, em especial, no Brasil. Além de ressaltar a relevá¢ncia desse bem, reconhecido em 2017 como Patrimônio Mundial pela UNESCO, também aborda o seu significado como sá­tio histórico de memória sensá­vel e lugar de memória do tráfico atlá¢ntico de africanos escravizados. Ao longo do texto, são abordadas ideias-chave, tais como passados sensá­veis, violência, dor e sofrimento em perspectiva histórica, indicando possibilidades de comparação com outros espaços no mundo, considerando tragédias humanas e conceitos utilizados nos estudos sobre esses processos. Finalmente, o texto analisa elementos em torno da história da região do Cais do Valongo como espaço de resistência e de afirmação das populações negras.Palavras-chave: Cais do Valongo. História da Escravidão. Passados Sensá­veis. Patrimônio Mundial. História dos africanos no Brasil.HISTORY, PATRIMONY AND SENSITIVE MEMORY:  the Pier of Valongo in Rio de JaneiroAbstract: The article deals with aspects that define the importance of the historical and archaelogical site of Valongo Wharf, located in the city of Rio de Janeiro, for the history of enslavement of Africans and their descendants in the Americas and especially in Brazil. In addition to highlighting the relevance of this property, recognized in 2017 as a Worl Heritage Site by UNESCO, it also addresses its significance as a historical site of sensitive memory and a place of memory for the Atlantic traffic of enslaved Africans. Throughout the text, key ideas such as sensitive past, violence, pain and suffering are discussed in historical perspective, which indicates possibilities of comparison with other spaces in the world, considering human tragedies and concepts used in the studies on these processes. Finally, the text analyzes other elements around the history of the Valongo Wharf region as space of resistance and affirmation of the black populations.Keywords: Valongo Wharf. History of Slavery. Sensitive Pasts. World Heritage. History of Africans in Brazil.HISTORIA, PATRIMONIO Y MEMORIA SENSIBLE:  el Cais do Valongo en Rá­o de JaneiroResumen: El artá­culo trata sobre aspectos que definen la importancia del sitio histórico y arqueológico Cais do Valongo, situado en la ciudad de Rá­o de Janeiro, para la historia de la esclavización de africanos y sus descendientes en las Américas y, en especial, en Brasil. Además de resaltar la relevancia de ese bien, reconocido en 2017 como Patrimonio Mundial por la UNESCO, también aborda su significado como sitio histórico de memoria sensible y lugar de memoria de la trata atlántica de africanos esclavizados. A lo largo del texto, se abordan ideas clave, tales como pasados sensibles, violencia, dolor y sufrimiento en perspectiva histórica, indicando posibilidades de comparación con otros espacios en el mundo y considerando tragedias humanas y conceptos utilizados en los estudios sobre esos procesos. Finalmente, el texto analiza elementos en torno a la historia de la región del Cais do Valongo como espacio de resistencia y de afirmación de las poblaciones negras.Palabras clave:  Muelle de Valongo. Historia de la Esclavitud. Pasados Sensibles. Patrimonio Mundial. Historia de los africanos en Brasil.


Author(s):  
Marisa Schincariol De Mello

Resumo O presente artigo tem por objetivo principal apresentar uma investigação acerca das múltiplas práticas de leitura em bibliotecas localizadas na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Para a realização deste estudo, buscamos delimitar o universo de frequentadores, suas práticas de leitura na biblioteca, os mediadores entre os textos, sons, imagens e a leitura, bem como as relações entre os espaços das bibliotecas e os territórios onde estão inseridos. Investiga-se ainda qual a importância e a função da leitura para os que a praticam, nos níveis objetivo, subjetivo, simbólico e imaginário. Através de entrevistas e da observação participante, procuramos trazer à tona a relação dos usuários com os livros, outros conteúdos, mídias e suportes. Cada vez mais, observamos práticas que combinam leitura, oralidade e escrita em um cenário transmidiático. Com os resultados, procura-se também contribuir com informações sobre a experiência dos usuários para a formulação e avaliação das políticas públicas de leitura e aquelas voltadas para as bibliotecas.   Palavras-chave: Rio de Janeiro, bibliotecas, práticas de leitura, leitura do mundo, experiências.   Resumen El presente artículo tiene por objetivo principal presentar una investigación acerca de las múltiples prácticas de lectura en bibliotecas ubicadas en la ciudad de Rio de Janeiro. Para la realización de este estudio, buscamos delimitar el universo de sus frecuentadores, sus prácticas en la biblioteca, los mediadores entre los textos, sonidos, imágenes y la lectura, además de las relaciones entre los espacios de las bibliotecas y los territorios que las abarcan. Investigamos además cual es la importancia y función de la lectura para sus practicantes, en los niveles objetivo, subjetivo, simbólico e imaginario. A través de entrevistas y de la observación participante, buscamos recuperar la relación del público con los libros y otras formas de lectura del mundo, a través de otros suportes, como el audiovisual, la música, etc. Cada vez más, observamos prácticas que combinan lectura, oralidad y escrita en un escenario transmediático. A partir de los resultados se pretende contribuir para la formulación y evaluación de las políticas públicas de lectura y bibliotecas.   Palabras clave: Rio de Janeiro, bibliotecas, prácticas de lectura, lectura de mundo, experiencias.     Abstract The major purpose of this article is to present a research on the multiple reading practices in libraries in the city of Rio de Janeiro. We attempted, firstly, to define the universe of its users, their reading practices at the library, the mediators between the texts, sounds, images and reading, as well as the relationships between the libraries´ venues and the territory in which they are set in. It is also analyzed what is the importance and function of the reading for those who practice it, in objective, subjective, symbolic and imaginary levels. Through interviews and participant observation, we tried to highlight the users´ relationship with books, other contents, medias and formats. We increasingly observe practices that combine reading, orality and writing in a transmedia scenery. Thus, we hope to contribute with information on the experience of the users for the formulation and evaluation of public reading and libraries´ policies.   Key words: Rio de Janeiro, libraries, reading practices, reading the world, experiences.


Author(s):  
Helcio R.B. Orlande ◽  
Marcelo Colaco ◽  
George S. Dulikravich ◽  
Luiz F.S. Ferreira

Evolution model is based on that used by Hernandez et al., which considers the following groups: Susceptible, Incubating, Asymptomatic, Symptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered and Accumulated deaths. Evolution model considers the possibility of infections from asymptomatic, symptomatic and hospitalized individuals. Evolution model considers the possibility that individuals who have recovered from the disease become symptomatic again. Observation model accounts for underreport of cases and deaths. Observation model accounts for delays in reporting cases and deaths. Model parameters were initially estimated with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, by using the data of the city of Rio de Janeiro from February 28, 2020 to April 29, 2020. These estimations were used as initial input values for the solution of the state estimation problem for the city of Rio de Janeiro. Algorithm of Liu & West for the Particle Filter was used for the solution of the state estimation problem because it allows the simultaneous estimation of state variables and model parameters. State estimation problem was solved with the data of the city of Rio de Janeiro, from February 28, 2020 to May 05, 2020. Monte Carlo simulations were run for 20 future days, considering uncertainties in the model parameters and state variables. Initial conditions were given by the state variables and corresponding distributions estimated with the particle filter on May 05, 2020. Distributions of the model parameters were also given by the estimations obtained for this date. Data of the city of Rio de Janeiro, from May 06, 2020 to May 15, 2020, were used for the validation of the solution of the state estimation problem. The present model, with the parameters obtained with the Particle Filter, accurately fits the number of reported cases and the number of reported deaths, for 10 days ahead of the period used for the solution of the state estimation problem. The Ratio of Infected Individuals per Reported Cases was around 15 on May 05, 2020. The Indexes of Under-Reported Cases and Deaths were around 12 and 2, respectively, on May 05, 2020. The Effective Reproduction Number was around 1.6 on February 28, 2020 and dropped to around 0.9 on May 05, 2020. However, uncertainties related to this parameter are large and the effective reproduction number is between 0.3 and 1.5, at the 95% credibility level. The particle filter must be used to periodically update the estimation of state variables and model parameters, so that future predictions can be made. Day 0 is February 28, 2020.


2015 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-278
Author(s):  
Mark Doidge ◽  
Bárbara Schausteck de Almeida

During his playing days, the Brazilian striker Romário was one of the most famous footballers in the world. He played for three of Brazil’s top clubs in Rio de Janeiro, as well as Barcelona and PSV Eindhoven. He won the World Cup and scored over one-thousand goals throughout his career. After this successful career, Romário entered politics, first as a deputy in the city of Rio and later as a senator in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Romário’s electoral success is not simply down to his footballing ability, nor the popularity of the sport in Brazil. Sports stardom, celebrity and celebrity politicians are also engaging with complex cultural processes. He has traded on his footballing stardom, but he also connects with his electorate through specific policy campaigns that resonate particularly well with his Brazilian voters. More importantly, he uses football and his footballer career as a metaphor for the wider problems facing Brazilian society. Drawing on literature from Sports Stardom, Celebrity and Celebrity Politicians, this paper charts the political career of Romário within the socio-political context of Brazil and argues that celebrity politicians still need to engage with their audiences regardless of their previous careers.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsin Ali ◽  
Mudassar Imran ◽  
Adnan Khan

Abstract BackgroundCOVID-19 is a pandemic that has swept across the world in 2020. To date the only effective control mechanisms were non-pharmaceutical interventions, however there have been encouraging reports regarding possible medication in the literature, with emergency approval given to some drugs in various countries.MethodsWe formulate a deterministic epidemic model to study the effects of medication on the transmission dynamics of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We are especially interested in how the availability of medication could change the necessary quarantine measures for effective control of the disease. We model the transmission by extending the SEIR model to include asymptomatic, quarantined, isolated and medicated population compartments.ResultsWe calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and show that for R0<1 the disease dies out and for R0>1 the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that R0 is most sensitive to the rates of quarantine and medication. We also study how the effectiveness and the rate of medication along with the quarantine rate affect R0. We devise optimal quarantine, medication and isolation strategies, noting that availability of medication reduces the duration and severity of the lock-down needed for effective disease control.ConclusionOur study also reinforces the idea that with the availability of medication, while the severity of the lock downs can be eased over time some social distancing protocols need to be observed, at least till a vaccine is found. We also analyze the COVID-19 outbreak data for four different countries, in two of these, India and Pakistan the curve is still rising, and in he other two, Italy and Spain, the epidemic curve is now falling due to effective quarantine measures. We provide estimates of R0 and the proportion of asymptomatic individuals in the population for these countries.


Author(s):  
MARCELO MORENO ◽  
Marina de Lourdes Ribeiro Alves Coelho ◽  
Fernando Portela Camara

We analyzed the contagion of Covid-19 among male players and football from clubs in the city of Rio de Janeiro in the Brazilian soccer championship 2020. We observed a high percentage of infected people, up to about 26, revealing the high transmission in these professionals


2014 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
Ranieli Piccinini

In 2006, Daros Latinamerica – one of the most comprehensive collections dedicated to Latin American contemporary art in the world – acquired a building, designed by the architect Francisco Joaquim Bethencourt da Silva (1831-1912) and listed as official historical heritage of the city of Rio de Janeiro. After seven years of refurbishment, Casa Daros and its library opened its doors on 23 March 2013. The library has maintained and improved its collection about contemporary Latin American art – considered unique in the region – ever since, with a view to motivating and increasing the amount of research on the subject in Brazil. At the same time, the library team plays an important role in the preparation of the programming planned in the cultural centre – considered a platform for art, education, and communication – and also during the events at Casa Daros, providing support for the researchers’ needs.


Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) a pandemic and a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of 29 March 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected 199 countries and territories, resulting in 683,536 positive cases and causing 32,139 deaths. The pandemic has the potential to become extremely destructive globally if not treated seriously. In this study, we propose a generalized SEIR model of COVID-19 to study the behaviour of its transmission under different control strategies. In the model, all possible cases of human-to-human transmission are considered and its reproduction number is formulated to analyse the accurate transmission dynamics of the coronavirus outbreak. Optimal control theory is applied to the model to demonstrate the impact of various intervention strategies, including voluntary quarantine, isolation of infected individuals, improving an individual's immunity, and hospitalization. In addition, the effect of control strategies on the model is analysed graphically by simulating the model numerically.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. M. Villela ◽  
L. S. Bastos ◽  
L. M. de Carvalho ◽  
O. G. cruz ◽  
M. F. C. Gomes ◽  
...  

AbstractZika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study we use notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of Zika in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We also obtain estimates of R0 of dengue from time series of dengue cases in the outbreaks registered in 2002 and 2012 in the city, when DENV-3 and DENV-4 serotypes respectively, had just emerged. Our estimates of the basic reproduction number for Zika in Rio de Janeiro based on surveillance notifications (R0 = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.97 − 2.97) were higher than those obtained for dengue in the city (year 2002: R0 = 1.70 [1.50 − 2.02]; year 2012: Ro = 1.25 [1.18 − 1.36]). Given the role of Aedes aegypti as vector of both the Zika and dengue viruses, we also derive Ro of Zika as a function of both dengue reproduction number and entomological and epidemiological parameters for dengue and Zika. Using the dengue outbreaks from previous years allowed us to estimate the potential R0 of Zika. Our estimates were closely in agreement with our first Zika’s R0 estimation from notification data. Hence, these results validate deriving the potential risk of Zika transmission in areas with recurring dengue outbreaks. Whether transmission routes other than vector-based can sustain a Zika epidemic still deserves attention, but our results suggest that the Zika outbreak in Rio de Janeiro emerged due to population susceptibility and ubiquitous presence of Ae. aegypti.


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