scholarly journals Extended Bayesian inference incorporating symmetry bias

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuji Shinohara ◽  
Nobuhito Manome ◽  
Kouta Suzuki ◽  
Ung-il Chung ◽  
Tatsuji Takahashi ◽  
...  

AbstractIn this study, we start by proposing a causal induction model that incorporates symmetry bias. This model has two parameters that control the strength of symmetry bias and includes conditional probability and conventional models of causal induction as special cases. It can reproduce causal induction of human judgment with high accuracy. We further propose a human-like Bayesian inference method to replace the conditional probability in Bayesian inference with the aforementioned causal induction model. In this method, two components coexist: the component of Bayesian inference, which updates the degree of confidence for each hypothesis, and the component of inverse Bayesian inference that modifies the model of each hypothesis. In other words, this method allows not only inference but also simultaneous learning. Our study demonstrates that the method with both Bayesian inference and inverse Bayesian inference enables us to deal flexibly with unsteady situations where the target of inference changes occasionally.

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Hari Mohan Srivastava ◽  
Artion Kashuri ◽  
Pshtiwan Othman Mohammed ◽  
Dumitru Baleanu ◽  
Y. S. Hamed

In this paper, the authors define a new generic class of functions involving a certain modified Fox–Wright function. A useful identity using fractional integrals and this modified Fox–Wright function with two parameters is also found. Applying this as an auxiliary result, we establish some Hermite–Hadamard-type integral inequalities by using the above-mentioned class of functions. Some special cases are derived with relevant details. Moreover, in order to show the efficiency of our main results, an application for error estimation is obtained as well.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-Zheng Wang ◽  
Li Xiong ◽  
Hu-Chen Liu

Community detection is an important analysis task for complex networks, including bipartite networks, which consist of nodes of two types and edges connecting only nodes of different types. Many community detection methods take the number of communities in the networks as a fixed known quantity; however, it is impossible to give such information in advance in real-world networks. In our paper, we propose a projection-free Bayesian inference method to determine the number of pure-type communities in bipartite networks. This paper makes the following contributions: (1) we present the first principle derivation of a practical method, using the degree-corrected bipartite stochastic block model that is able to deal with networks with broad degree distributions, for estimating the number of pure-type communities of bipartite networks; (2) a prior probability distribution is proposed over the partition of a bipartite network; (3) we design a Monte Carlo algorithm incorporated with our proposed method and prior probability distribution. We give a demonstration of our algorithm on synthetic bipartite networks including an easy case with a homogeneous degree distribution and a difficult case with a heterogeneous degree distribution. The results show that the algorithm gives the correct number of communities of synthetic networks in most cases and outperforms the projection method especially in the networks with heterogeneous degree distributions.


2014 ◽  
Vol 989-994 ◽  
pp. 4680-4683
Author(s):  
Han Ru Pei ◽  
Zhi Jian Wang ◽  
Yu Wang

Information theoretic metrics is popular theory to measure anonymity. However the difficulty in getting the probability distribution of subjects hampers its practical usage. In this paper we propose a Bayesian inference method to tackle this problem. Our method makes it possible to compare the anonymity of different anonymous systems. We use this method to analyze Threshold Mix and point out different system parameters which do and do not have influence on anonymity.


Author(s):  
Joa˜o V. Sparano ◽  
Eduardo A. Tannuri ◽  
Alexandre N. Simos ◽  
Vini´cius L. F. Matos

The practicability of estimating directional wave spectra based on a vessel 1st order response has been recently addressed by several researchers. The interest is justified since on-board estimations would only require only a simple set of accelerometers and rate-gyros connected to an ordinary PC. The on-board wave inference based on 1st order motions is therefore an uncomplicated and inexpensive choice for wave estimation if compared to wave buoys and radar systems. The latest works in the field indicate that it is indeed possible to obtain accurate estimations and a Bayesian inference model seems to be the preferable method adopted for performing this task. Nevertheless, most of the previous analysis has been based exclusively on numerical simulations. At Polytechnic School, an extensive research program supported by Petrobras has been conducted since 2000, aiming to evaluate the possibility of estimating wave spectrum on-board offshore systems, like FPSO platforms. In this context, a series of small-scale tests has been performed at the LabOceano wave basin, comprising long and short crested seas. A possible candidate for on-board wave estimation has been recently studied: a crane barge (BGL) used for launching ducts offshore Brazil. The 1:48 model has been subjected to bow and quartering seas with different wave heights and periods and also different levels of directional spreading. A Bayesian inference method was adopted for evaluating the wave spectra based on the time-series of motions and the results were directly compared to the wave spectra measured in the basin by means of an array of wave probes. Very good estimations of the statistical parameters (significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction) were obtained and, in most cases, even the directional spreading could be properly predicted. Inversion of the mean direction (180° shift), mentioned by some authors as a possible drawback of the Bayesian inference method, was not observed in any case. Sensitivity analysis on errors in the input parameters, such as the vessel inertial characteristics, has also been performed and attested that the method is robust enough to cope well with practical uncertainties. Overall results once again indicate a good performance of the inference method, providing an important additional validation supported by a large set of model tests.


1993 ◽  
Vol 25 (03) ◽  
pp. 714-716
Author(s):  
K. D. Glazebrook

We propose a two-parameter family of conjugate prior distributions for the number of undiscovered objects in a class of Bayesian search models. The family contains the one-parameter Euler and Heine families as special cases. The two parameters may be interpreted respectively as an overall success rate and a rate of depletion of the source of objects. The new family gives enhanced flexibility in modelling.


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