scholarly journals Biotic interactions and climate in species distribution modelling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel P. Bebber ◽  
Sarah J. Gurr
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Host Preferences ◽  
Migration Rates

SummarySpecies have preferred environmental niches 1 and their geographical distributions respond to global climate change 2. Predicting range shifts under climate change has profound implications for conservation of biodiversity 3, provision of ecosystem services, and in the management of invasive species 4. Species distribution modelling (SDM) has largely focussed on climate variations, but biotic interactions, such as predation and competition, can alter potential distributions 5,6 and affect migration rates 7. However, a lack of data on biotic interactions has restricted consideration of these factors for many species 1. Here, we compare the power of biotic and climatic factors as predictors of global distributions of hundreds of crop pests and pathogens (CPPs), for which host preferences are known. We show that host availability is a more important predictor of endobiotic pathogen distributions (fungi, oomycetes, bacteria, viruses and nematodes) than of epibiotic pest distributions (insect herbivores). Conversely, climatic variables are better predictors of epibiotic pest distributions. These results are robust to statistical controls for varying observational capacity among countries. Our findings demonstrate that life history affects global scale species distributions and that SDM should incorporate biotic interactions as well as climate.

scholarly journals Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1761) ◽  
pp. 20170446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Jarvie ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
First Century ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Biodiversity And Ecosystem Function

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.

scholarly journals Strictly protected species of hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) in Serbia in the face of climate change

2018 ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marija Milicic ◽  
Marina Jankovic ◽  
Dubravka Milic ◽  
Snezana Radenkovic ◽  
Ante Vujic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Protected Species ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
The Face ◽  
Intensive Land Use

Climate change is happening. Due to a spectrum of possible conse?quences, numerous studies examine the effects of global warming on species distribution. This study examines the effects of changing climate on distribution of selected strictly protected species of hoverflies in Serbia, by using species distribution modelling. Ten species were included in the analysis. Three species were predicted to lose a part of their range across time, while for seven species the range expansion was predicted. Both in the present time and in the future, mountainous regions have the highest species richness, such as Golija, Kopaonik, and Prokletije in the western Serbia, and mountains Stara Planina, Besna Kobila, Suva Planina, and Dukat in the southeastern part of the country. However, beside climate change, there are several other factors that might influence the distribution of strictly pro?tected hoverflies in Serbia, such as intensive land use and degradation of habitats. Addition?ally, global warming also affects flowering plants that syrphids are dependent on, which could present another obstacle to their future range expansions. These results can contribute to planning future steps for the conservation of strictly protected hoverfly species.

Will tropical mountaintop plant species survive climate change? Identifying key knowledge gaps using species distribution modelling in Australia

2015 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 322-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig M. Costion ◽  
Lalita Simpson ◽  
Petina L. Pert ◽  
Monica M. Carlsen ◽  
W. John Kress ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Knowledge Gaps ◽  
Distribution Modelling

scholarly journals Examining floristic boundaries between garden types at the global scale

2014 ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Padullés Cubino ◽  
Josep Vila Subirós ◽  
Carles Barriocanal Lozano
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Plant Composition ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Future Income ◽  
Garden Plant

Gardens represent important sources of goods and services for their owners. This functionality translates directly into the types of plants cultivated in a given garden, and terminology has been developed to distinguish each category of garden according to its purpose. The factors explaining the differentiation and distribution of gardens have not previously been explored at the global scale. In this study, the plant lists for 44 sets of gardens from around the world were analyzed to explore their taxonomic similarities and the factors shaping each garden. Several biophysical and socioeconomic variables were examined at the appropriate scale for their roles in garden species distribution. Physical and climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and distance between settlements) were found to be significantly related with species makeup; all of these factors were less important than GDP per person, a proxy for household income, which was determined to be the primary driver of garden composition. All of the studied socioeconomic factors, such as language similarity among settlements and population density, were significant drivers of species distribution. However, the present analysis omits a number of variables due to data unavailability, such as garden size and owner gender, which have been previously recognized as influences on garden plant composition. The genera cultivated in different gardens were found to be very different from each other, and the definitions of each type are hard to establish from these data alone. Finally, the implications of likely future income variations, such those caused by severe economic crisis, and global climate change on bio-cultural diversity and food security are discussed.

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