scholarly journals The association between adiposity and inpatient hospital costs in the UK Biobank cohort

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Padraig Dixon ◽  
George Davey Smith ◽  
William Hollingworth
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Hospital Costs ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Inpatient Hospital

ABSTRACTBackgroundHigh adiposity is associated with higher risks for a variety of adverse health outcomes, including higher rates of age-adjusted mortality and increased morbidity. This has important implications for the management of healthcare systems, since the endocrinal, cardiometabolic and other changes associated with increased adiposity may be associated with substantial healthcare costs.MethodsWe studied the association between various measures of adiposity and inpatient hospital costs through record linkage between UK Biobank and records of inpatient care in England and Wales. UK Biobank is a large prospective cohort study that aimed to recruit men and women aged between 40 and 69 from 2006 to 2010. We applied generalised linear models to cost per person year to estimate the marginal effect and averaged adjusted predicted cost of adiposity on inpatient costs.ResultsValid cost and body mass index (BMI) data from 457,689 participants were available for inferential analysis. Some 54.4% of individuals included in the analysis sample had positive inpatient healthcare costs over the period of follow-up. Median hospital costs per person year of follow-up were £89, compared to mean costs of £481. Mean BMI overall was 27.4 kg/m2 (standard deviation 4.8). The marginal effect of a unit increase in BMI was £13.61 (99% confidence interval: £12.60 to £14.63) per person year of follow up. The marginal effect of a standard deviation increase in BMI was £69.20 (99% confidence interval: £64.98 to £73.42). The marginal effect of becoming obese was £136.35 (99% confidence interval: £124.62 to £148.08). Average adjusted predicted inpatient hospital costs increased almost linearly when modelled using continuous measure of adiposity. Sensitivity analysis of different scenarios did not substantially change these conclusions, although there was some evidence of attenuation of the effects of adiposity when controlling for waist-hip ratios, and when individuals who self-reported any pre-existing conditions were excluded from analysis.ConclusionsHigher adiposity is associated with higher inpatient hospital costs. Further scrutiny using causal inferential methods is warranted to establish if further public health investments are required to manage the large healthcare costs observationally associated with overweight and obesity.

scholarly journals The causal effect of adiposity on hospital costs: Mendelian Randomization analysis of over 300,000 individuals from the UK Biobank

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Padraig Dixon ◽  
William Hollingworth ◽  
Sean Harrison ◽  
Neil M Davies ◽  
George Davey Smith
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variants ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Mendelian Randomization ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Hospital Costs ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Omitted Variables

AbstractEstimates of the marginal effect of measures of adiposity such as body mass index (BMI) on healthcare costs are important for the formulation and evaluation of policies targeting adverse weight profiles. Many existing estimates of this association are affected by endogeneity bias caused by simultaneity, measurement error and omitted variables. The contribution of this study is to avoid this bias by using a novel identification strategy – random germline genetic variation in an instrumental variable analysis – to identify the presence and magnitude of the causal effect of BMI on inpatient hospital costs. We also use data on genetic variants to undertake much richer testing of the sensitivity of results to potential violations of the instrumental variable assumptions than is possible with existing approaches. Using data on over 300,000 individuals, we found effect sizes for the marginal unit of BMI more than 50% larger than multivariable effect sizes. These effects attenuated under sensitivity analyses, but remained larger than multivariable estimates for all but one estimator. There was little evidence for non-linear effects of BMI on hospital costs. Within-family estimates, intended to address dynastic biases, were null but suffered from low power. This paper is the first to use genetic variants in a Mendelian Randomization framework to estimate the causal effect of BMI (or any other disease/trait) on healthcare costs. This type of analysis can be used to inform the cost-effectiveness of interventions and policies targeting the prevention and treatment of overweight and obesity, and for setting research priorities.

scholarly journals Atrial fibrillation progression risk factors and associated cardiovascular outcome in well-phenotyped patients: data from the AF-RISK study

EP Europace ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 352-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruben R De With ◽  
Ernaldo G Marcos ◽  
Elton A M P Dudink ◽  
Henri M Spronk ◽  
Harry J G M Crijns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Left Atrial ◽  
Left Atrial Volume ◽  
Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor 1 ◽  
Atrial Volume ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Recent Onset ◽  
Pai 1

Abstract Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a progressive disease, but identifying patients at risk for AF progression is challenging. We aimed to identify factors associated with AF progression. Methods and results Atrial fibrillation progression was assessed in 392 patients with recent-onset paroxysmal or persistent AF included in the prospective, observational, multicentre identification of a risk profile to guide atrial fibrillation (AF-RISK) study. Progression of AF was assessed by Holter monitoring and 2-week event recorder at baseline and 1-year follow-up. AF progression was defined as: (i) doubling in AF burden at 1 year compared to baseline with a minimum AF burden of 10% in paroxysmal AF; or (ii) transition from paroxysmal to persistent or permanent AF; or (iii) persistent to permanent AF. Age was 60 ± 11 years, 62% were men, and 83% had paroxysmal AF. At 1 year, 52 (13%) had AF progression (11% in paroxysmal; 26% in persistent AF). Multivariable logistic regression showed that left atrial volume [odds ratio (OR) per 10 mL 1.251, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.078–1.450; P < 0.001], N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; OR per standard deviation increase 1.583, 95% CI 1.099–2.281; P = 0.014), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1; OR per standard deviation increase 0.660, 95% CI 0.472–0.921; P = 0.015) were associated with AF progression. In an additional follow-up of 1.9 (0.9–3.3) years patients with AF progression developed more cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality (12.4%/year vs. 2.3%/year, P < 0.001). Conclusion Atrial fibrillation progression occurred in 13% of patients with recent-onset AF during 1-year follow-up. Left atrial volume, NT-proBNP, and PAI-1 were associated with AF progression. Patients with AF progression had a higher event rate. Trial registration number Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01510210.

Translational delivery of Cool Little Kids to prevent child internalising problems: Randomised controlled trial

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordana K Bayer ◽  
Ruth Beatson ◽  
Lesley Bretherton ◽  
Harriet Hiscock ◽  
Melissa Wake ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Anxiety Disorders ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Adjusted Odds Ratio ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Secondary Outcomes ◽  
Randomised Controlled ◽  
Internalising Problems

Objective: To determine whether a population-delivered parenting programme assists in preventing internalising problems at school entry for preschool children at-risk with temperamental inhibition. Methods: Design: a randomised controlled trial was used. Setting: the setting was 307 preschool services across eight socioeconomically diverse government areas in Melbourne, Australia. Participants: a total of 545 parents of inhibited 4-year-old children: 498 retained at 1-year follow up. Early intervention: Cool Little Kids parenting group programme was implemented. Primary outcomes: the primary outcomes were child DSM-IV anxiety disorders (assessor blind) and internalising problems. Secondary outcomes: the secondary outcomes were parenting practices and parent mental health. Results: At 1-year follow up (mean (standard deviation) age = 5.8 (0.4) years), there was little difference in anxiety disorders between the intervention and control arms (44.2% vs 50.2%; adjusted odds ratio = 0.86, 95% confidence interval = [0.60, 1.25], p = 0.427). Internalising problems were reduced in the intervention arm (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: abnormal – 24.2% vs 33.0%; adjusted odds ratio = 0.56, 95% confidence interval = [0.35, 0.89], p = 0.014; symptoms – mean (standard deviation) = 2.5 (2.0) vs 2.9 (2.2); adjusted mean difference = –0.47, 95% confidence interval = [–0.81, –0.13], p = 0.006). Parents’ participation in the intervention was modest (29.4% attended most groups, 20.5% used skills most of the time during the year). A priori interaction tests suggested that for children with anxious parents, the intervention reduced anxiety disorders and internalising symptoms after 1 year. Conclusion: Offering Cool Little Kids across the population for inhibited preschoolers does not impact population outcomes after 1 year. Effects may be emerging for inhibited children at highest risk with parent anxiety. Trial outcomes will continue into mid-childhood.

scholarly journals Consumption of ultra-processed foods and the risk of overweight and obesity, and weight trajectories in the French cohort NutriNet-Santé

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (OCE2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Srour ◽  
Marie Beslay ◽  
Caroline Méjean ◽  
Benjamin Allès ◽  
Thibault Fiolet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Intake ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Prospective Study ◽  
Food Consumption ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Processed Foods ◽  
Processed Food ◽  
Weight Trajectories ◽  
Incident Cases

AbstractIntroductionPrevious epidemiological studies have found associations between the consumption of ultra-processed foods and the risk of obesity-related outcomes, such as post-menopausal breast cancer, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension and mortality. However, only one Spanish prospective study has explored the associations between the consumption of ultra-processed foods and the risk of overweight and obesity. The aim of this study is to investigate the associations between ultra-processed food consumption and the risk of overweight and obesity, as well as the associations between ultra-processed food consumption and weight trajectories, in middle-aged adults included in the French large scale NutriNet-Santé cohort.MethodsOverall, 110260 participants aged at least 18 years from the French NutriNet-Santé cohort (2009–2019) were included. Dietary intakes were collected using repeated 24 hour dietary records, merged with a food composition database of 3300 different products. These were categorized according to their degree of processing by the NOVA classification. Associations between ultra-processed food intake and risks of overweight and obesity were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Associations between ultra-processed food intake and weight trajectories were assessed using multivariable linear mixed models for repeated measures with random slope and intercept. Models were adjusted for known risk factors (sociodemographic, lifestyle, and nutritional factors).ResultsUltra-processed food intake was associated with a higher risk of overweight (n = 7063 incident cases; hazard ratio for an absolute increment of 10 in the percentage of ultra-processed foods in the diet = 1.11 (95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.14); P < 0.0001, median follow-up: 4.1y, 260304 person-years) and obesity (n = 3066 incident cases; HR = 1.09 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.13); P < 0.0001, median follow-up: 8.0y 365344 person-years). Higher consumers of ultra-processed foods (4th quartile) were more likely to present an increase in body mass index over time (change of BMI/time-unit in Q4 vs Q1 = 0.04, P < 0.0001). These results remained statistically significant after adjustment for several markers of the nutritional quality of the diet (fruits and vegetables and sugary drinks consumption, intakes of saturated fatty acids, sodium, sugar, dietary fiber or Healthy/Western patterns derived by principal component analysis) and after a large range of sensitivity analyses.ConclusionIn this large observational prospective study, higher consumption of ultra-processed foods in the diet was associated with a higher risk of overweight and obesity. Public health authorities in several countries recently started to recommend privileging unprocessed/minimally processed foods and limiting ultra-processed food consumption.

scholarly journals Predicting the effect of statins on cancer risk using genetic variants from a Mendelian randomization study in the UK Biobank

eLife ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Carter ◽  
Mathew Vithayathil ◽  
Siddhartha Kar ◽  
Rahul Potluri ◽  
Amy M Mason ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Cancer Risk ◽  
Genetic Variants ◽  
Ldl Cholesterol ◽  
Human Genetics ◽  
Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Lipid Lowering ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
The Uk

Laboratory studies have suggested oncogenic roles of lipids, as well as anticarcinogenic effects of statins. Here we assess the potential effect of statin therapy on cancer risk using evidence from human genetics. We obtained associations of lipid-related genetic variants with the risk of overall and 22 site-specific cancers for 367,703 individuals in the UK Biobank. In total, 75,037 individuals had a cancer event. Variants in the HMGCR gene region, which represent proxies for statin treatment, were associated with overall cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] per one standard deviation decrease in low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65–0.88, p=0.0003) but variants in gene regions representing alternative lipid-lowering treatment targets (PCSK9, LDLR, NPC1L1, APOC3, LPL) were not. Genetically predicted LDL-cholesterol was not associated with overall cancer risk (OR per standard deviation increase 1.01, 95% CI 0.98–1.05, p=0.50). Our results predict that statins reduce cancer risk but other lipid-lowering treatments do not. This suggests that statins reduce cancer risk through a cholesterol independent pathway.

scholarly journals Physical activity modifies the risk of atrial fibrillation in obese individuals: The HUNT3 study

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (15) ◽  
pp. 1646-1652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars E Garnvik ◽  
Vegard Malmo ◽  
Imre Janszky ◽  
Ulrik Wisløff ◽  
Jan P Loennechen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
High Body Mass Index ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Increased Risk

Background Atrial fibrillation is the most common heart rhythm disorder, and high body mass index is a well-established risk factor for atrial fibrillation. The objective of this study was to examine the associations of physical activity and body mass index and risk of atrial fibrillation, and the modifying role of physical activity on the association between body mass index and atrial fibrillation. Design The design was a prospective cohort study. Methods This study followed 43,602 men and women from the HUNT3 study in 2006–2008 until first atrial fibrillation diagnosis or end of follow-up in 2015. Atrial fibrillation diagnoses were collected from hospital registers and validated by medical doctors. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to assess the association between physical activity, body mass index and atrial fibrillation. Results During a mean follow-up of 8.1 years (352,770 person-years), 1459 cases of atrial fibrillation were detected (4.1 events per 1000 person-years). Increasing levels of physical activity were associated with gradually lower risk of atrial fibrillation ( p trend 0.069). Overweight and obesity were associated with an 18% (hazard ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.03–1.35) and 59% (hazard ratio 1.59, 95% confidence interval 1.37–1.84) increased risk of atrial fibrillation, respectively. High levels of physical activity attenuated some of the higher atrial fibrillation risk in obese individuals (hazard ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.03–2.28 in active and 1.96, 95% confidence interval 1.44–2.67 in inactive) compared to normal weight active individuals. Conclusion Overweight and obesity were associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation. Physical activity offsets some, but not all, atrial fibrillation risk associated with obesity.

scholarly journals Are Loneliness and Social Isolation Associated with Quality of Life in Older Adults? Insights from Northern and Southern Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 8637
Author(s):  
Giorgi Beridze ◽  
Alba Ayala ◽  
Oscar Ribeiro ◽  
Gloria Fernández-Mayoralas ◽  
Carmen Rodríguez-Blázquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
The North ◽  
Health Aging ◽  
Context Specific

Purpose: Loneliness and social isolation have detrimental effects on health in old age; however, the prospective associations with quality of life (QoL) remain unclear. Furthermore, despite the existence of a European north-south gradient in the distribution of loneliness and social isolation, little is known whether the associations are context-specific. We investigated the relationships between loneliness, social isolation and QoL of older adults residing in the North (Sweden) and South (Spain) of Europe. Methods: Study sample consisted of 2995 Swedish and 4154 Spanish older adults who participated in waves six and seven of the Study on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Loneliness and social isolation were measured at the baseline, and QoL was measured at the baseline and follow-up using CASP-12. Prospective associations were assessed via multivariate linear regression. Results: In Sweden, subjects with higher vs. lower loneliness had 1.01 (95% CI: −1.55, −0.40) units lower QoL, while every standard deviation increase in social isolation was associated with a 0.27 (95% CI: −0.42, −0.09)-unit decrease in QoL. In Spain, every standard deviation increase in social isolation was associated with a 0.66 (95% CI: −1.11, −0.22)-unit decrease in QoL. The association was stronger in subjects aged ≤65 years old and those with no chronic diseases. The association with loneliness was not statistically significant in Spain. Conclusion: Loneliness and social isolation are prospectively associated with decreased QoL among older adults, yet the associations are contextually bound. Future interventions should target both exposures, among others, in order to increase QoL in this group.

scholarly journals Common conditions associated with hereditary haemochromatosis genetic variants: cohort study in UK Biobank

BMJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. k5222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke C Pilling ◽  
Jone Tamosauskaite ◽  
Garan Jones ◽  
Andrew R Wood ◽  
Lindsay Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Community Sample ◽  
Hospital Inpatient ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
European Descent ◽  
Hereditary Haemochromatosis ◽  
Condition Versus ◽  
Early Case

Abstract Objective To compare prevalent and incident morbidity and mortality between those with the HFE p.C282Y genetic variant (responsible for most hereditary haemochromatosis type 1) and those with no p.C282Y mutations, in a large UK community sample of European descent. Design Cohort study. Setting 22 centres across England, Scotland, and Wales in UK Biobank (2006-10). Participants 451 243 volunteers of European descent aged 40 to 70 years, with a mean follow-up of seven years (maximum 9.4 years) through hospital inpatient diagnoses and death certification. Main outcome measure Odds ratios and Cox hazard ratios of disease rates between participants with and without the haemochromatosis mutations, adjusted for age, genotyping array type, and genetic principal components. The sexes were analysed separately as morbidity due to iron excess occurs later in women. Results Of 2890 participants homozygous for p.C282Y (0.6%, or 1 in 156), haemochromatosis was diagnosed in 21.7% (95% confidence interval 19.5% to 24.1%, 281/1294) of men and 9.8% (8.4% to 11.2%, 156/1596) of women by end of follow-up. p.C282Y homozygous men aged 40 to 70 had a higher prevalence of diagnosed haemochromatosis (odds ratio 411.1, 95% confidence interval 299.0 to 565.3, P<0.001), liver disease (4.30, 2.97 to 6.18, P<0.001), rheumatoid arthritis (2.23, 1.51 to 3.31, P<0.001), osteoarthritis (2.01, 1.71 to 2.36, P<0.001), and diabetes mellitus (1.53, 1.16 to 1.98, P=0.002), versus no p.C282Y mutations (n=175 539). During the seven year follow-up, 15.7% of homozygous men developed at least one incident associated condition versus 5.0% (P<0.001) with no p.C282Y mutations (women 10.1% v 3.4%, P<0.001). Haemochromatosis diagnoses were more common in p.C282Y/p.H63D heterozygotes, but excess morbidity was modest. Conclusions In a large community sample, HFE p.C282Y homozygosity was associated with substantial prevalent and incident clinically diagnosed morbidity in both men and women. As p.C282Y associated iron overload is preventable and treatable if intervention starts early, these findings justify re-examination of options for expanded early case ascertainment and screening.

scholarly journals PREPRINT: Contact and Psychological Adjustment following Divorce/Separation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karey O'Hara ◽  
Austin Grinberg ◽  
Allison Mary Tackman ◽  
Matthias R. Mehl ◽  
David Sbarra
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Distress ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Psychological Adjustment ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Interpersonal Contact ◽  
Person Variable ◽  
Over Time

This study examined the association between naturalistically-observed in-person contact with one’s ex-partner and separation-related psychological distress (SRPD). 122 recently separated adults were assessed using the Electronically Activated Recorder (Mehl, 2017) on three occasions across five months. The association between in-person contact with one’s expartner, as a between-person variable, and concurrent SRPD was not reliably different from zero, nor was the time-varying effect of in-person contact. However, more frequent in-person contact with one’s ex-partner predicted higher SRPD two months later, above and beyond the variance accounted for by oncurrent in-person contact, demographic, relationship, and attachment factors. Follow-up analyses yielded that this effect was only present for people without children; a one standard deviation increase in in-person contact offset and slowed the predicted decline in SRPD over two months by 112%. Our discussion emphasizes new ways to think about the role of interpersonal contact in shaping adults’ psychological adjustment to separation over time.

scholarly journals Estimating the causal effect of genetic liability to prevalent disease on hospital costs using Mendelian Randomization

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Padraig Dixon ◽  
Sean Harrison ◽  
William Hollingworth ◽  
Neil M Davies ◽  
George Davey Smith
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variants ◽  
Mendelian Randomization ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Hospital Costs ◽  
Disease Status ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Inpatient Hospital ◽  
Genome Wide ◽  
Split Sample ◽  
Randomization Analysis

BACKGROUND Accurate measurement of the effects of disease status on healthcare cost is important in the pragmatic evaluation of interventions but is complicated by endogeneity biases due to omitted variables and reverse causality. Mendelian Randomization, the use of random perturbations in germline genetic variation as instrumental variables, can avoid these limitations. We report a novel Mendelian Randomization analysis of the causal effect of liability to disease on healthcare costs. METHODS We used Mendelian Randomization to model the causal impact on inpatient hospital costs of liability to six highly prevalent diseases: asthma, eczema, migraine, coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and major depressive disorder. We identified genetic variants from replicated genome-wide associations studies and estimated their association with inpatient hospital costs using data from UK Biobank, a large prospective cohort study of individuals linked to records of hospital care. We assessed potential violations of the instrumental variable assumptions, particularly the exclusion restriction (i.e. variants affecting costs through alternative paths). We also conducted new genome wide association studies of hospital costs within the UK Biobank cohort as a further split sample sensitivity analysis. RESULTS We analyzed data on 307,032 individuals. Genetic variants explained only a small portion of the variance in each disease phenotype. Liability to coronary heart disease had substantial impacts (mean per person per year increase in costs from allele score Mendelian Randomization models: 712 pounds sterling (95% confidence interval: 238 pounds to 1,186 pounds)) on inpatient hospital costs in causal analysis, but other results were imprecise. There was concordance of findings across varieties of sensitivity analyses, including stratification by sex, and those obtained from the split sample analysis. CONCLUSION A novel Mendelian Randomization analysis of the causal effect of liability to disease on healthcare cost demonstrates that this type of analysis is feasible and informative in this context. There was concordance across data sources and across methods bearing different assumptions. Selection into the relatively healthy UK Biobank cohort and the modest proportion of variance in disease status accounted for by the allele scores reduced the precision of our estimates. We therefore could not exclude the possibility of substantial costs due to these diseases.

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