scholarly journals Young Children Integrate Current Observations, Priors and Agent Information to Build Predictive Models of Others’ Actions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Kayhan ◽  
L. Heil ◽  
J. Kwisthout ◽  
I. van Rooij ◽  
S. Hunnius ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young Children ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Predictive Processing ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Pupillary Responses ◽  
Causal Bayesian Network ◽  
Processing Framework

AbstractFrom early on in life, children are able to use information from their environment to form predictions about events. For instance, they can use statistical information about a population to predict the sample drawn from that population and infer an agent’s preferences from systematic violations of random sampling. We investigated how young children build and update models of an agent’s sampling actions over time, and whether a computational model based on the causal Bayesian network formalization of predictive processing can explain this process.We formalized three hypotheses about how different explanatory variables (i.e., prior probabilities, current observations, and agent characteristics) are used to build predictive models of others’ actions. We measured pupillary responses as a behavioral marker of ‘prediction errors’ (i.e., the perceived mismatch between what one’s model of an agent predicts and what the agent actually does), as described in the predictive processing framework. Pupillary responses of 24-month-olds, but not 18-month-olds, showed that young children integrated information about current observations, priors and agents to generate predictive models of agents and their actions.These findings shed light on the mechanisms behind toddlers’ inferences about agent-caused events. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which young children’s pupillary responses are used as markers of prediction errors, and explained by a computational model based on the causal Bayesian network formalization of predictive processing. We argue that the predictive processing framework provides a promising explanation of the way in which young children process other persons’ actions.HighlightsWe present three formalized hypotheses on how young children generate predictive models of others’ sampling actions.We measured pupillary responses of children as a behavioral marker of prediction errors as described in the predictive processing framework.Results showed that young children integrated information about current observations, prior probabilities and agents to generate predictive models about others’ actions.A computational model based on the causal Bayesian network formalization of predictive processing can explain this process.

The Embodiment of Concepts

2018 ◽  
pp. 640-660
Author(s):  
Michiel Van Elk ◽  
Harold Bekkering
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Error ◽  
Predictive Processing ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Conceptual Representation ◽  
Recurrent Processing ◽  
Different Dimensions ◽  
Prior Models ◽  
Processing Framework

We characterize theories of conceptual representation as embodied, disembodied, or hybrid according to their stance on a number of different dimensions: the nature of concepts, the relation between language and concepts, the function of concepts, the acquisition of concepts, the representation of concepts, and the role of context. We propose to extend an embodied view of concepts, by taking into account the importance of multimodal associations and predictive processing. We argue that concepts are dynamically acquired and updated, based on recurrent processing of prediction error signals in a hierarchically structured network. Concepts are thus used as prior models to generate multimodal expectations, thereby reducing surprise and enabling greater precision in the perception of exemplars. This view places embodied theories of concepts in a novel predictive processing framework, by highlighting the importance of concepts for prediction, learning and shaping categories on the basis of prediction errors.

scholarly journals A computational model-based approach for atlas construction of aortic Doppler velocity profiles for segmentation purposes

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 23-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vedrana Baličević ◽  
Hrvoje Kalinić ◽  
Sven Lončarić ◽  
Maja Čikeš ◽  
Bart Bijnens
Keyword(s):  
Computational Model ◽  
Velocity Profiles ◽  
Doppler Velocity ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Atlas Construction

Probabilistic Model-Based Fault Diagnosis of the Rotor System

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiye Shao ◽  
Rixin Wang ◽  
Jingbo Gao ◽  
Minqiang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Rotating Machinery ◽  
Rotor System ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Diagnosis System ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Core Components ◽  
Fault Diagnosis System

The rotor is one of the most core components of the rotating machinery and its working states directly influence the working states of the whole rotating machinery. There exists much uncertainty in the field of fault diagnosis in the rotor system. This paper analyses the familiar faults of the rotor system and the corresponding faulty symptoms, then establishes the rotor’s Bayesian network model based on above information. A fault diagnosis system based on the Bayesian network model is developed. Using this model, the conditional probability of the fault happening is computed when the observation of the rotor is presented. Thus, the fault reason can be determined by these probabilities. The diagnosis system developed is used to diagnose the actual three faults of the rotor of the rotating machinery and the results prove the efficiency of the method proposed.

Priors and Prejudice: How prior knowledge shapes intergroup perception

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugh McGovern ◽  
Marte Otten
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Prior Knowledge ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Social Neuroscience ◽  
Intergroup Bias ◽  
Predictive Processing ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Intergroup Perception ◽  
The Brain ◽  
Processing Framework

Bayesian processing has become a popular framework by which to understand cognitive processes. However, relatively little has been done to understand how Bayesian processing in the brain can be applied to understanding intergroup cognition. We assess how categorization and evaluation processes unfold based on priors about the ethnic outgroup being perceived. We then consider how the precision of prior knowledge about groups differentially influence perception depending on how the information about that group was learned affects the way in which it is recalled. Finally, we evaluate the mechanisms of how humans learn information about other ethnic groups and assess how the method of learning influences future intergroup perception. We suggest that a predictive processing framework for assessing prejudice could help accounting for seemingly disparate findings on intergroup bias from social neuroscience, social psychology, and evolutionary psychology. Such an integration has important implications for future research on prejudice at the interpersonal, intergroup, and societal levels.

scholarly journals Bayesian Network Models with Decision Tree Analysis for Management of Childhood Malaria in Malawi

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanya B. Taneja ◽  
Gerald P. Douglas ◽  
Gregory F. Cooper ◽  
Marian G. Michaels ◽  
Marek J. Druzdzel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Tree ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Clinical Features ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Automated Method ◽  
Childhood Malaria

Abstract Background: Malaria is a major cause of death in children under five years old in low- and middle-income countries such as Malawi. Accurate diagnosis and management of malaria can help reduce the global burden of childhood morbidity and mortality. Trained healthcare workers in rural health centers manage malaria with limited supplies of malarial diagnostic tests and drugs for treatment. A clinical decision support system that integrates predictive models to provide an accurate prediction of malaria based on clinical features could aid healthcare worker in judicious use of testing and treatment. We developed Bayesian network (BN) models to predict the probability of malaria from clinical features and an illustrative decision tree to model the decision to use or not use a malaria rapid diagnostic test (mRDT).Methods: We developed two BN models from data that were collected in a national survey of outpatient encounters of children in Malawi. The target diagnosis is taken as the result of mRDT. The first BN model was created manually with expert knowledge, and the second model was derived using an automated method followed by modifications guided by expert knowledge. The performance of the BN models was compared to other statistical models on a range of performance metrics. We developed a decision tree that integrates predictions from these predictive models with the costs of mRDT and a course of recommended treatment. Results: Compared to the logistic regression and random forest models, the BN models had similar accuracy of 64% but had higher sensitivity at the cost of lower specificity at the default threshold. Sensitivity analysis of the decision tree showed that at low (below 0.04) and high (above 0.4) probabilities of malaria in a child, the preferred decision that minimizes expected costs is not to perform mRDT.Conclusion: In resource-constrained settings, judicious use of mRDT is important. Predictive models in combination with decision analysis can provide personalized guidance on when to use mRDT in the management of childhood malaria. BN models can be efficiently derived from data to support such clinical decision making.

scholarly journals Prefrontal solution to the bias-variance tradeoff during reinforcement learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongjae Kim ◽  
Jaeseung Jeong ◽  
Sang Wan Lee
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Control ◽  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Brain Regions ◽  
Decision Task ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Bias Variance ◽  
The Brain

AbstractThe goal of learning is to maximize future rewards by minimizing prediction errors. Evidence have shown that the brain achieves this by combining model-based and model-free learning. However, the prediction error minimization is challenged by a bias-variance tradeoff, which imposes constraints on each strategy’s performance. We provide new theoretical insight into how this tradeoff can be resolved through the adaptive control of model-based and model-free learning. The theory predicts the baseline correction for prediction error reduces the lower bound of the bias–variance error by factoring out irreducible noise. Using a Markov decision task with context changes, we showed behavioral evidence of adaptive control. Model-based behavioral analyses show that the prediction error baseline signals context changes to improve adaptability. Critically, the neural results support this view, demonstrating multiplexed representations of prediction error baseline within the ventrolateral and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, key brain regions known to guide model-based and model-free learning.One sentence summaryA theoretical, behavioral, computational, and neural account of how the brain resolves the bias-variance tradeoff during reinforcement learning is described.

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