An Advancing Front of Old Age Human Survival
Old age mortality decline has driven recent increases in lifespans, but there is no agreement about trends in the age-pattern of old deaths. Some hypotheses argue that old-age deaths should have become compressed at high ages, others that old-age deaths should have become more dispersed with age, and yet others are consistent with little change in dispersion. However, direct analyses of old-age deaths presents unusual challenges: death rates at the oldest ages are always noisy; published life tables must assume an asymptotic age pattern of deaths; and the definition of “old age” changes as lives lengthen. Here we use robust percentile-based methods to overcome these challenges and show, for 5 decades in 20 developed countries, that old-age survival follows an advancing front, like a traveling wave. The front lies between the 25th and 90th percentiles of old-age deaths, advancing with nearly constant long-term shape but annual fluctuations in speed. The existence of this front leads to several predictions that we verify, e.g., that advances in life expectancy at age 65 are highly correlated with the advance of the 25th percentile, but not with distances between higher percentiles. Our unexpected result has implications for biological hypotheses about human aging, and for future mortality change.