Developing an automated iterative near-term forecasting system for an ecological study

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.1101/268623 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Ethan P. White ◽

Glenda M. Yenni ◽

Shawn D. Taylor ◽

Erica M. Christensen ◽

Ellen K. Bledsoe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Software Development ◽

Scientific Progress ◽

List Type ◽

Ecological Forecasting ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Long Term Study ◽

New Models ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Near Term

AbstractMost forecasts for the future state of ecological systems are conducted once and never updated or assessed. As a result, many available ecological forecasts are not based on the most up-to-date data, and the scientific progress of ecological forecasting models is slowed by a lack of feedback on how well the forecasts perform.Iterative near-term ecological forecasting involves repeated daily to annual scale forecasts of an ecological system as new data becomes available and regular assessment of the resulting forecasts. We demonstrate how automated iterative near-term forecasting systems for ecology can be constructed by building one to conduct monthly forecasts of rodent abundances at the Portal Project, a long-term study with over 40 years of monthly data. This system automates most aspects of the six stages of converting raw data into new forecasts: data collection, data sharing, data manipulation, modeling and forecasting, archiving, and presentation of the forecasts.The forecasting system uses R code for working with data, fitting models, making forecasts, and archiving and presenting these forecasts. The resulting pipeline is automated using continuous integration (a software development tool) to run the entire pipeline once a week. The cyberinfrastructure is designed for long-term maintainability and to allow the easy addition of new models. Constructing this forecasting system required a team with expertise ranging from field site experience to software development.Automated near-term iterative forecasting systems will allow the science of ecological forecasting to advance more rapidly and provide the most up-to-date forecasts possible for conservation and management. These forecasting systems will also accelerate basic science by allowing new models of natural systems to be quickly implemented and compared to existing models. Using existing technology, and teams with diverse skill sets, it is possible for ecologists to build automated forecasting systems and use them to advance our understanding of natural systems.

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Do We Need to Review Outcome Measures in Schizophrenia to Capture ‘Real-life’ Situation?

European Psychiatry ◽

10.1016/s0924-9338(09)71429-4 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 24 (S1) ◽

pp. 1-1

Author(s):

A. Shrivastava

Keyword(s):

Outcome Measures ◽

Real Life ◽

List Type ◽

Life Situation ◽

Term Outcome ◽

Long Term Outcome ◽

Long Term Study ◽

Real Life Situation ◽

New Perspective

Introduction:Outcome measures in schizophrenia are defining aspects for deciding the status of recovery based upon which people’ scientific body forms opinions. It is also important in dealing with stigma related to schizophrenia. Recently the concept of ‘recovery’ and ’ outcome’ has come under scientific scrutiny. Literature does not show a consistent pattern in outcome. both short term and long-term outcome show variability, which is often, explained by cultural factors. It has been generally considered that devolved countries have poor outcome than developing, non-industrialized countries. This view has also been challenged recently. the paper draws from the conceptual aspects if our outcome measure are capturing ‘real-life’ situation. We conducted two studies in Mumbai, India:1.Study of stigma & discrimination, which brought out the facts of families’ expectation and disappointments with level of recovery.2.A 10 years long term study, to determine recovery status of recovered patients.80% patients and families felt that recovery is inadequate and short of social integration despite continued treatment in stigma study. in outcome study, 60% patients showed good recovery as per CGIS. These patients were reassessed on 13 outcome criteria's of Meltzer. It is observed tat half of the patients who recovered continue to live with symptoms, a quarter with varying suicidality and side effects, most of the patients were not socially integrated, majority have not returned to productivity, employment and education It is concluded that outcome criteria's need a thoughtful revision and a new perspective to capture ground reality.

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The drivers and consequences of unstable Plasmodium dynamics: A long-term study of three malaria species infecting a tropical lizard

10.1101/189696 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Luisa Otero ◽

Jos. J. Schall ◽

Virnaliz Cruz ◽

Kristen Aaltonen ◽

Miguel A. Acevedo

Keyword(s):

Body Condition ◽

Early Years ◽

Environmental Drivers ◽

Severe Drought ◽

List Type ◽

Infected Female ◽

Long Term Study ◽

Individual Probability ◽

Parasite Dynamics

ABSTRACTThe dynamics of vector-borne parasites are driven by interactions between factors intrinsic to the parasite, its host, as well as environmental fluctuations. Understanding these interactions requires a long-term view, especially to predict the consequences of climate change on parasite dynamics.The goal of this study is to evaluate temporal fluctuations in individual probability of infection, its environmental drivers and consequences for host body condition, of three malaria parasites (Plasmodium azurophilum, P. leucocytica, and P. floridense) infecting the lizard, Anolis gundlachi, in the rainforest of Puerto Rico.We conducted 13 surveys totaling N > 8000 lizards over 26 years. During the early years of the study, the lizard’s probability of infection by all three Plasmodium species appeared stable despite disturbances from short droughts and small to moderate hurricanes.Over a longer timescale, we found that the individual lizard probability of infection and overall prevalence varied significantly over the years, and this fluctuation was driven in non-linear ways by variations in temperature and rainfall. The probability of infection was maximized at intermediate levels of temperature and precipitation. This temporal variability in Plasmodium prevalence driven by environmental factors had two important consequences. First, temperature-mediated a decrease in body condition in infected female lizards relative to non-infected ones. Second, Plasmodium parasite species composition varied through time.Overall, the results show how environmental conditions, such a severe drought, can drive disease dynamics outside of their apparent stable equilibrium and mediate the potential negative effects of parasite infection on the host. Our results also emphasize the need for long-term studies to reveal host-parasite dynamics, their drivers and consequences.

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Do we Need to Review Outcome Measures in Schizophrenia to Capture ‘Real-life’ Situation?

European Psychiatry ◽

10.1016/s0924-9338(09)70581-4 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 24 (S1) ◽

pp. 1-1

Author(s):

A. Shrivastava

Keyword(s):

Outcome Measures ◽

Real Life ◽

List Type ◽

Life Situation ◽

Term Outcome ◽

Long Term Outcome ◽

Long Term Study ◽

Real Life Situation ◽

New Perspective

Introduction:Outcome measures in schizophrenia are defining aspects for deciding the status of recovery based upon which people’ scientific body forms opinions. It is also important in dealing with stigma related to schizophrenia. Recently the concept of ‘recovery’ and’ outcome’ has come under scientific scrutiny. Literature does not show a consistent pattern in outcome. Both short term and long-term outcome show variability, which is often, explained by cultural factors. It has been generally considered that devolved countries have poor outcome than developing, non-industrialized countries. This view has also been challenged recently. The paper draws from the conceptual aspects if our outcome measure are capturing ‘real-life’ situation. We conducted two studies in Mumbai, India:1.Study of stigma & discrimination, which brought out the facts of families’ expectation and disappointments with level of recovery.2.A 10 years long term study, to determine recovery status of recovered patients.80% patients and families felt that recovery is inadequate and short of social integration despite continued treatment in stigma study. In outcome study, 60% patients showed good recovery as per CGIS. These patients were reassessed on 13 outcome criteria's of Meltzer. It is observed tat half of the patients who recovered continue to live with symptoms, a quarter with varying suicidality and side effects, most of the patients were not socially integrated, majority have not returned to productivity, employment and education It is concluded that outcome criteria's need a thoughtful revision and a new perspective to capture ground reality.

Download Full-text