scholarly journals Impact of global change on future Ebola emergence and epidemic potential in Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Redding ◽  
P. M. Atkinson ◽  
A. A. Cunningham ◽  
G. Lo Iacono ◽  
L. M. Moses ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Zoonotic Diseases ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Major Health ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
Future Risk

ABSTRACTAnimal-borne or zoonotic human diseases (e.g., SARS, Rabies) represent major health and economic burdens throughout the world, disproportionately impacting poor communities. In 2013-2016, an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD), a zoonotic disease spread from animal reservoirs caused by the Zaire Ebola virus (EBOV), infected approximately 30,000 people, causing considerable negative social and economic impacts in an unexpected geographical location(Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia). It is not known whether the spatial distribution of this outbreak and unprecedented severity was precipitated by environmental changes and, if so, which areas might be at risk in the future. To better address the major health and economic impacts of zoonotic diseases we develop a system-dynamics approach to capture the impact of future climate, land use and human population change on Ebola (EVD). We create future risk maps for affected areas and predict between a 1.75-3.2 fold increase in EVD outbreaks per year by 2070. While the best case future scenarios we test saw a reduction in the likelihood of epidemics, other future scenarios with high human population growth and low rates of socioeconomic development saw a fourfold increase in the risk of epidemics occurring and almost 50% increase in the risk of catastrophic epidemics. As well as helping to target where health infrastructure might be further developed or vaccines best deployed, our modelling framework can be used to target global interventions and forecast risk for many other zoonotic diseases.Significance StatementDespite the severe health and economic impacts of outbreaks of diseases like SARS or Zika, there has been surprisingly little progress in predicting where and when human infectious disease outbreaks will occur next. By modelling the impacts of future climate, land use and human population change on one particular disease Ebola, we develop future risk maps for the affected areas and predict 1.7-3.2 times as many human Ebola outbreaks per year by 2070, and a 50% increase in the chance that these outbreaks will become epidemics. As well as helping to target where health infrastructure might be further developed or vaccines deployed, our approach can also be used to target actions and predict risk hotspots for many other infectious diseases.

Participatory methods for developing a Bayesian network model for simulating catchment resilience under future scenarios. 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerr Adams ◽  
Miriam Glendell ◽  
Marc Metzger ◽  
Rachel Helliwell ◽  
Christopher (Kit) Macleod ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Cumulative Impacts ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Arable Farming ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Participatory Method

<p>The cumulative impacts of future climatic and socio-economic change have the potential to threaten the resilience of freshwater catchments and the important socio-ecological services they provide. Working with stakeholder groups from Scottish Water (statutory corporation that provides water and sewerage services across Scotland) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (environmental regulator), we established a participatory method for developing a Bayesian Network (BN) model to simulate the resilience of the Eden catchment, in eastern Scotland, to future pressures. The Eden catchment spans approximately 319km<sup>2</sup>, arable farming is the major land use, and the catchment falls within the Strathmore, Fife and Angus Nitrate Vulnerable Zone. The participatory method involves co-developing a BN model structure by conceptually mapping land management, water resource and wastewater services.  Working with stakeholders, appropriate baseline data is identified to define and parameterise variables that represent the Eden catchment system and future scenarios. Key factors including climate, land-use and population change were combined in future scenarios and are represented in the BN through causal relationships. Scenarios consider shocks and changes to the catchment system in a 2050-time horizon. Resilience is measured by simulating the impacts of the future scenarios and their influence on natural, social and manufactured capitals within a probabilistic framework. Relationships between specific components of the catchment system can be evaluated using sensitivity analysis and strength of influence to better understand the interactions between specific variables. The participatory modelling improved the structure of the BN through collaborative learning with stakeholders, increasing understanding of the catchment system and stakeholder confidence in the probabilistic outputs. This participatory method delivered a purpose built, user-friendly decision support tool to help stakeholders understand the cumulative impacts of both climatic and socio-economic factors on catchment resilience.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of spatiotemporal changes of agricultural land after the Second World War in Czechia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vít Zelinka ◽  
Johana Zacharová ◽  
Jan Skaloš
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Second World War ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
German Population ◽  
World War ◽  
Landscape Type ◽  
Second World

AbstractThe term Sudetenland refers to large regions of the former Czechoslovakia that had been dominated by Germans. German population was expelled directly after the Second World War, between 1945 and 1947. Almost three million people left large areas in less than two years. This population change led to a break in the relationship between the people and the landscape. The aim of the study is to compare the trajectories of these changes in agricultural landscapes in lower and higher altitudes, both in depopulated areas and areas with preserved populations. This study included ten sites in the region of Northern Bohemia in Czechia (18,000 ha in total). Five of these sites represent depopulated areas, and the other five areas where populations remained preserved. Changes in the landscape were assessed through a bi-temporal analysis of land use change by using aerial photograph data from time hoirzons of 2018 and 1953. Land use changes from the 1950s to the present are corroborated in the studied depopulated and preserved areas mainly by the trajectory of agricultural land to forest. The results prove that both population displacement and landscape type are important factors that affect landscape changes, especially in agricultural landscapes.

Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania

2021 ◽  
pp. 111101
Author(s):  
Eduardo Gomes ◽  
Miguel Inácio ◽  
Katažyna Bogdzevič ◽  
Marius Kalinauskas ◽  
Donalda Karnauskaitė ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Habitat Quality ◽  
Future Scenarios

scholarly journals Molecular evidence for human population change associated with climate events in the Maya lowlands

2021 ◽  
Vol 258 ◽  
pp. 106904
Author(s):  
Benjamin Keenan ◽  
Anic Imfeld ◽  
Kevin Johnston ◽  
Andy Breckenridge ◽  
Yves Gélinas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Population ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Molecular Evidence ◽  
Maya Lowlands ◽  
Climate Events

scholarly journals Assessment of the Ecological Stability of the Village of Bielovce as a Result of to Changes in Land Use

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Ivan ◽  
Tatiana Chebeňová
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Ecological Stability ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Negative Factors ◽  
The Village

Abstract Globally, the human population is growing, which causes increasing demands on landscapes. Human activity significantly influences the ecological balance, especially in the negative. Ecological stability is the basis for assessments of all environmental conditions and for assessments according to new land uses. The area of interest is evaluated according to both positive and negative factors. There are many methodologies for calculating ecological stability, e.g., Muchová et al. (2009); Řeháčková - Pauditšová (2007); Kupková (2002); Streďanský et al. (1995) and Löw et al. (1984). The aim of this paper is to compare the works of the mentioned authors concerning the ecological stability of the district of Levice (Slovakia), specifically in the municipal cadastre region of Bielovce. The land uses of this territory have changed during some periods. We compared the state of the land uses in the years 1950, 2012 and 2014. During this period, the proportion of arable land increased, and the proportion of forest decreased. In the area of interest, the ecological stability increased, but not as significantly as we expected. The processed data were prepared in GIS.

scholarly journals Comparative terrestrial feed and land use of an aquaculture-dominant world

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (20) ◽  
pp. 5295-5300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halley E. Froehlich ◽  
Claire A. Runge ◽  
Rebecca R. Gentry ◽  
Steven D. Gaines ◽  
Benjamin S. Halpern
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Protein Production ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Meat Production ◽  
Feed Composition ◽  
Land Sparing ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Future Potential

Reducing food production pressures on the environment while feeding an ever-growing human population is one of the grand challenges facing humanity. The magnitude of environmental impacts from food production, largely around land use, has motivated evaluation of the environmental and health benefits of shifting diets, typically away from meat toward other sources, including seafood. However, total global catch of wild seafood has remained relatively unchanged for the last two decades, suggesting increased demand for seafood will mostly have to rely on aquaculture (i.e., aquatic farming). Increasingly, cultivated aquatic species depend on feed inputs from agricultural sources, raising concerns around further straining crops and land use for feed. However, the relative impact and potential of aquaculture remains unclear. Here we simulate how different forms of aquaculture contribute and compare with feed and land use of terrestrial meat production and how spatial patterns might change by midcentury if diets move toward more cultured seafood and less meat. Using country-level aquatic and terrestrial data, we show that aquaculture requires less feed crops and land, even if over one-third of protein production comes from aquaculture by 2050. However, feed and land-sparing benefits are spatially heterogeneous, driven by differing patterns of production, trade, and feed composition. Ultimately, our study highlights the future potential and uncertainties of considering aquaculture in the portfolio of sustainability solutions around one of the largest anthropogenic impacts on the planet.

Unowned Free-Roaming Domestic Cats: Reflection of Animal Welfare and Ethical Aspects in Animal Laws in Six European Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugenia Natoli ◽  
Nadja Ziegler ◽  
Agnés Dufau ◽  
Maria Pinto Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Human Population ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Zoonotic Diseases ◽  
Domestic Cat ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Domestic Cats ◽  
Ethical Aspects ◽  
Human Control ◽  
The Third ◽  
Animal Laws

Abstract Besides the population of pet cats, another feline population that has regular and frequent relationships with the human population, is represented by unowned, free-roaming domestic cats. It is incontestable that part of human beings is responsible for the growing number of unwanted cats. The problems raised by the existence of free-roaming cat population range from acoustic and hygienic nuisance (because of loud vocalizations during the breeding season and bad smell due to sprayed urine from tomcats) to public health threat (because of the potential spread of zoonotic diseases and of diseases to pet cats and other species), to predation of wildlife (it can cause disruption of ecosystems). Undoubtedly, unowned free-roaming cat population has to be managed but, in the third millennium, human control strategies have to have an ethical dimension. In this paper, we propose an analysis of the National Laws in France, Spain, UK, Austria, Portugal and Italy. Based on the knowledge of domestic cat behavior, we suggest that when the TNR strategy for controlling domestic cat populations is applied by law in the mentioned countries, the basic needs and welfare of the species are respected.

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