scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Quaife ◽  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
Amy Gimma ◽  
Kashvi Shah ◽  
Nicky McCreesh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundMany low- and middle-income countries have implemented control measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is not clear to what extent these measures explain the low numbers of recorded COVID-19 cases and deaths in Africa. One of the main aims of control measures is to reduce respiratory pathogen transmission through direct contact with others. In this study we collect contact data from residents of informal settlements around Nairobi, Kenya to assess if control measures have changed contact patterns, and estimate the impact of changes on the basic reproduction number (R0).MethodsWe conducted a social contact survey with 213 residents of five informal settlements around Nairobi in early May 2020, four weeks after the Kenyan government introduced enhanced physical distancing measures and a curfew between 7pm and 5am. Respondents were asked to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, alongside a questionnaire asking about the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined contact patterns by demographic factors, including socioeconomic status. We described the impact of COVID-19 and control measures on income and food security. We compared contact patterns during control measures to patterns from non-pandemic periods to estimate the change in R0.FindingsWe estimate that control measures reduced physical and non-physical contacts, reducing the R0 from around 2.6 to between 0.5 and 0.7, depending on the pre-COVID-19 comparison matrix used. Masks were worn by at least one person in 92% of contacts. Respondents in the poorest socioeconomic quintile reported 1.5 times more contacts than those in the richest. 86% of respondents reported a total or partial loss of income due to COVID-19, and 74% reported eating less or skipping meals due to having too little money for food.InterpretationCOVID-19 control measures have had a large impact on direct contacts and therefore transmission, but have also caused considerable economic and food insecurity. Reductions in R0 are consistent with the linear epidemic growth in Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries that implemented similar, early control measures. However, negative and inequitable impacts on economic and food security may mean control measures are not sustainable in the longer term.Research in contextEvidence before this studyWe conducted a PubMed search on 6 June 2020 with no language restrictions for studies published since inception, using the search terms (“social mix*” OR “social cont*” OR “contact pattern*) AND (“covid*”). The search yielded 53 articles, two of which reported changes in social contacts after COVID-19 control measures. The first study reported changes in contact patterns in Wuhan and Shanghai, and the second changes in contact patterns in the UK. We found no studies examining changes in contact patterns due to control measures in sub-Saharan Africa, and no studies disaggregating contacts by socioeconomic status.Added value of this studyThis is the first study to estimate the reproduction number of COVID-19 under control measures in sub-Saharan Africa using primary contact data. This study also moves beyond existing work to i) measure contacts in densely populated informal settlements, ii) explore how social contacts vary across socioeconomic status, and iii) assess the impact of control measures on economic and food security in these areas.Implications of all the evidenceCOVID-19 control measures have substantially reduced social contacts and disease transmission. People of lower socioeconomic status face greater transmission risk as they report more contacts. Control measures have led to considerable economic and food insecurity, and may not be sustainable in the long term without efforts to reduce the burden of control measures on households.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements

BMC Medicine ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Quaife ◽  
◽  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
Amy Gimma ◽  
Kashvi Shah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Respiratory Pathogen ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Many low- and middle-income countries have implemented control measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is not clear to what extent these measures explain the low numbers of recorded COVID-19 cases and deaths in Africa. One of the main aims of control measures is to reduce respiratory pathogen transmission through direct contact with others. In this study, we collect contact data from residents of informal settlements around Nairobi, Kenya, to assess if control measures have changed contact patterns, and estimate the impact of changes on the basic reproduction number (R0). Methods We conducted a social contact survey with 213 residents of five informal settlements around Nairobi in early May 2020, 4 weeks after the Kenyan government introduced enhanced physical distancing measures and a curfew between 7 pm and 5 am. Respondents were asked to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, alongside a questionnaire asking about the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined contact patterns by demographic factors, including socioeconomic status. We described the impact of COVID-19 and control measures on income and food security. We compared contact patterns during control measures to patterns from non-pandemic periods to estimate the change in R0. Results We estimate that control measures reduced physical contacts by 62% and non-physical contacts by either 63% or 67%, depending on the pre-COVID-19 comparison matrix used. Masks were worn by at least one person in 92% of contacts. Respondents in the poorest socioeconomic quintile reported 1.5 times more contacts than those in the richest. Eighty-six percent of respondents reported a total or partial loss of income due to COVID-19, and 74% reported eating less or skipping meals due to having too little money for food. Conclusion COVID-19 control measures have had a large impact on direct contacts and therefore transmission, but have also caused considerable economic and food insecurity. Reductions in R0 are consistent with the comparatively low epidemic growth in Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries that implemented similar, early control measures. However, negative and inequitable impacts on economic and food security may mean control measures are not sustainable in the longer term.

scholarly journals Food security impacts of industrial crop production in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of the impact mechanisms

Food Security ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Pawel Jarzebski ◽  
Abubakari Ahmed ◽  
Yaw Agyeman Boafo ◽  
Boubacar Siddighi Balde ◽  
Linda Chinangwa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Industrial Crop ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Perspective from Panel Data Analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 759
Author(s):  
Raïfatou Affoh ◽  
Haixia Zheng ◽  
Kokou Dangui ◽  
Badoubatoba Mathieu Dissani
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Food Utilization ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the relationship between climate variables such as rainfall amount, temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and the triple dimension of food security (availability, accessibility, and utilization) in a panel of 25 sub-Saharan African countries from 1985 to 2018. After testing for cross-sectional dependence, unit root and cointegration, the study estimated the pool mean group (PMG) panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The empirical outcome revealed that rainfall had a significantly positive effect on food availability, accessibility, and utilization in the long run. In contrast, temperature was harmful to food availability and accessibility and had no impact on food utilization. Lastly, CO2 emission positively impacted food availability and accessibility but did not affect food utilization. The study took a step further by integrating some additional variables and performed the panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression to ensure the robustness of the preceding PMG results. The control variables yielded meaningful results in most cases, so did the FMOLS and DOLS regression. The Granger causality test was conducted to determine the causal link, if any, among the variables. There was evidence of a short-run causal relationship between food availability and CO2 emission. Food accessibility exhibited a causal association with temperature, whereas food utilization was strongly connected with temperature. CO2 emission was linked to rainfall. Lastly, a bidirectional causal link was found between rainfall and temperature. Recommendations to the national, sub-regional, and regional policymakers are addressed and discussed.

Grey relational evaluation of impact and control of malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tawiah Kwatekwei Quartey-Papafio ◽  
Sifeng Liu ◽  
Sara Javed
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent States ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
And Control ◽  
Grey Relational ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The rise in malaria deaths discloses a decline of global malaria eradication that shows that control measures and fund distribution have missed its right of way. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to study and evaluate the impact and control of malaria on the independent states of the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region over the time period of 2010–2017 using Deng’s Grey incidence analysis, absolute degree GIA and second synthetic degree GIA model. Design/methodology/approach The purposive data sampling is a secondary data from World Developmental Indicators indicating the incidence of new malaria cases (per 1,000 population at risk) for 45 independent states in SSA. GIA models were applied on array sequences into a single relational grade for ranking to be obtained and analyzed to evaluate trend over a predicted period. Findings Grey relational analysis classifies West Africa as the highly infectious region of malaria incidence having Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Benin, Liberia and Gambia suffering severely. Also, results indicate Southern Africa to be the least of all affected in the African belt that includes Eswatini, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa and Mozambique. But, predictions revealed that the infection rate is expected to fall in West Africa, whereas the least vulnerable countries will experience a rise in malaria incidence through to the next ten years. Therefore, this study draws the attention of all stakeholders and interest groups to adopt effective policies to fight malaria. Originality/value The study is a pioneer to unravel the most vulnerable countries in the SSA region as far as the incidence of new malaria cases is a concern through the use of second synthetic GIA model. The outcome of the study is substantial to direct research funds to control and eliminate malaria.

scholarly journals Prioritizing Achievable Goals for Food Security in the Developing World

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-25
Author(s):  
Sanjaya Rajaram ◽  
Maarten van Ginkel
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Food System ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Rapid Responses ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
New Research ◽  
The Impact

Many solutions have been proposed to address food security. We present here a prioritized set of actions achievable within the next 2–10 years. By taking a systems approach we follow the impact pathway backwards starting from the needs and desires of the end-users to eventually define the research agenda that will exactly address those targeted solutions with positive impacts. The following actions emerge as high-priority and achievable in the near future: new research tools to study food systems; dis-aggregated intra-household surveys to reveal within-family inequalities in food access; increased scientific consensus on climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa; rapid response measures to address sudden emergencies, such as capturing excess rainfall water; financial tools to enable rapid responses with recovery measures afterwards; consideration of restrictions that excess heat and humidity impose on human productivity; secure land ownership and tenure rights to encourage long-term agricultural investment; mechanization at all stages along the food system.

scholarly journals Domestic and International Remittances and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-54
Author(s):  
Narges Ebadi ◽  
Davod Ahmadi ◽  
Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
International Remittances ◽  
Food Security Status ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

The amount of remittances to developing counties, defined as the flow of monetary and non-monetary goods, has increased globally and has surpassed the amount of money spent on foreign aid in these developing countries. The impact of remittances on households’ purchasing power has been studied; however, its link to food security status is yet to be explored. This paper quantitatively analyses the relationship between food security status (measured using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale) and the receipt of domestic/ international or both remittances on households in sub- Saharan Africa. Data are derived from the Gallup World Poll from the years 2014-2017. Multinomial logistic regression models and binary logistic regression analyses were conducted to analyze the data. Results showed that remittance recipients had significantly higher household incomes (especially if the remittance was coming internationally and domestically), lived with significantly more household members (7 or more members), and were more likely to be separated (including divorced or widowed). Households that received domestic remittances had significantly higher odds of being food insecure than households receiving no remittances. Conversely, households receiving remittances internationally or a combination of domestic and international remittances had significantly lower odds of food insecurity compared to non-receivers. This study found that receiving remittances affect the food security status of people living in SSA countries. 

Climate change and human heat stress exposure in sub-Saharan Africa.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (049) ◽  
Author(s):  
Desalegn Yayeh Ayal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Sahel Region ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Agricultural Food

Abstract The sub-Saharan Africa region has been affected by multifaceted interrelated challenges including climate change risks, environmental degradation, political crises, demographic, and food security. The region is geographically exposed to and heavily depends on heat stress-sensitive livelihood and economy. Unlike drought, flood, and erratic rainfall, the situation and impact of heat stress are not well documented. This paper summarized the impact of heat stress on various sectors of the Sahel region. The result revealed that exposure to heat stress contributed to water, agricultural, food security, health, and economic adverse impacts in sub-Saharan Africa. The study also shows in sub- Saharan Africa especially in semiarid and arid areas the future impact of heat stress in various sectors is expected to be more severe. The changes and impacts of heat stress are not uniform across the region. For instance, East Africa is at higher risk of acquiring concurrent health impacts. West Africa is projected to experience severe impacts on food production. South Africa observes the strongest decrease in precipitation with concurrent risks of drought. Thus, understanding the effect of heat stress on humans and various heat-sensitive sectors should be the focus of researchers. However, given the degree of uncertainty of the models' results and effect of heat stress in the region, it is important to develop adaptive capacities at different ecological settings that enable the region population to adapt to risk factors related to climate change and heat stress.

scholarly journals Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in urban settings in three sub-Saharan African countries (SeroCoV): a study protocol for a household-based cross-sectional prevalence study using two-stage cluster sampling

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. e056853
Author(s):  
Eva Lorenz ◽  
Aurélia Souares ◽  
John Amuasi ◽  
Wibke Loag ◽  
Christina Deschermeier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Study Protocol ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Cluster Sampling ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age And Sex

IntroductionThe current COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the entire world with increasing morbidity and mortality and has resulted in serious economic and social consequences. Assessing the burden of COVID-19 is essential for developing efficient pandemic preparedness and response strategies and for determining the impact of implemented control measures. Population-based seroprevalence surveys are critical to estimate infection rates, monitor the progression of the epidemic and to allow for the identification of persons exposed to the infection who may either have been asymptomatic or were never tested. This is especially important for countries where effective testing and tracking systems could not be established and where non-severe cases or under-reported deaths might have blurred the true burden of COVID-19. Most seroprevalence surveys performed in sub-Saharan Africa have targeted specific high risk or more easily accessible populations such as healthcare workers or blood donors, and household-based estimates are rarely available. Here, we present the study protocol for a SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimation in the general population of Burkina Faso, Ghana and Madagascar in 2021.Methods and analysisThe SeroCoV study is a household-based cross-sectional prevalence investigation in persons aged 10 years and older living in urban areas in six cities using a two-stage geographical cluster sampling method stratified by age and sex. The presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies will be determined using a sensitive and specific SARS-CoV-2 IgG ELISA. In addition, questionnaires will cover sociodemographic information, episodes of diseases and history of testing and treatment for COVID-like symptoms, travel history and safety measures. We will estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2, taking into account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of the respective populations.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval was received for all participating countries. Results will be disseminated through reports and presentations at the country level as well as peer-reviewed publications and international scientific conferences presentations.

scholarly journals Individual’s daily behaviour and intergenerational mixing in different social contexts of Kenya

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Del Fava ◽  
Irene Adema ◽  
Moses C. Kiti ◽  
Piero Poletti ◽  
Stefano Merler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Rural Setting ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Infection Transmission ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
African Context ◽  
Sub Saharan

AbstractWhich are the characteristics of contact patterns in diverse social contexts in sub-Saharan Africa, and which types of individuals and daily behaviours may play a pivotal role in infection transmission to the most vulnerable, such as older adults? We address these questions using novel survey data on social contacts and time use from a sample of 1407 individuals from rural, urban, and slum settings in Kenya. In the rural setting, we observed the highest number of daily social contacts (11.56, SD = 0.23) and the highest share of intergenerational mixing with older adults (7.5% vs. around 4% in the urban settings). Intergenerational mixing with older adults was mainly reported by individuals spending their day mostly in the general community (around 8%) or at home (5.1%), rather than at work (1.5%) or at school (3.6%). These results are essential to define effective interventions to control infection transmission in the African context.

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