scholarly journals The impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Vittoria Barbarossa ◽  
Jan Fuhrmann ◽  
Jan H. Meinke ◽  
Stefan Krieg ◽  
Hridya Vinod Varma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Initial Work ◽  
Current Outbreak ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about 2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as of April 17, 2020 [37]. In view of most recent information on testing activity [32], we present here an update of our initial work [4]. In this work, mathematical models have been developed to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended here to account for undetected infections, as well as for stages of infections and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until April 5, data from April 6 to 14 are used for model validation. We simulate different possible strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually the number of fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual) lifting of introduced control measures could soon be possible if accompanied by further increased testing activity, strict isolation of detected cases and reduced contact to risk groups.

scholarly journals A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Vittoria Barbarossa ◽  
Jan Fuhrmann ◽  
Julian Heidecke ◽  
Hridya Vinod Varma ◽  
Noemi Castelletti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Mathematical Study ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe, with about 571,700 confirmed cases and about 26,500 deaths as of March 28th, 2020. We present here the preliminary results of a mathematical study directed at informing on the possible application or lifting of control measures in Germany. The developed mathematical models allow to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

scholarly journals Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheikh Taslim Ali ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Eric H. Y. Lau ◽  
Xiao-Ke Xu ◽  
Zhanwei Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mainland China ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Real Time Estimation ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month. This change is driven by enhanced non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also demonstrated that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time would provide more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers, than by using conventional definition of fixed serial interval distributions. These findings are essential to improve the assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Mini-Review: D614G Mutation as an Independent Risk-Factor to the Expression of ACE2 and DPP4 Associated Increased Severity in COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 1175-1186
Author(s):  
Siti Asmaa Mat Jusoh ◽  
Parisa Foroozandeh ◽  
Yan Fen Lee ◽  
Mardani Abdul Halim ◽  
Manoj Kumar Laskmanan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Groups ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Dominant Form ◽  
Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 ◽  
Dipeptidyl Peptidase 4 ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The People ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Cluster Of Differentiation

The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has struck more than 99 million people worldwide and had claimed more than 2 million lives as of 23 January 2021, which affecting 221 countries/nations. Until now, the pandemic has not shown signals of slowing down, with no proven vaccine in sight. People are speculating on this unprecedented event. It is well documented that the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the viral spiked S1 glycoprotein directly bind angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 (DPP4) or CD26 (cluster of differentiation 26) receptors lead to their entry. The latest evidence demonstrated that SAR-CoV-2 possesses genetic heterogeneity, lead to the existence of a new SAR-CoV-2 variant, such as D614G encoded the spiked S1. The mutation involved changes in amino acid sequence of D (aspartic acid) into G (guanine) at position 614. D614G was reported to confer high infectivity and became the dominant form of the virus globally. Interestingly, current evidence found that D614G protein increases its infectivity dependent on the ACE2 receptor, and its co-binding receptor, DPP4. This proclaims implied to COVID-19 high-risk groups; the aging population and the people with comorbidities; hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes, which constituted the most of lethal cases, that overexpressed ACE2 and DPP4. The review aims to find an association between COVID-19 infectivity and severity relating to D614G mutation with the expression of ACE2 or DPP4 in these groups. We proposed that D614G mutation and expressions of ACE2 and DPP4 were mutually inclusive for increase infectivity, but not severity in COVID-19’s patients.

scholarly journals Estimating the global reduction in transmission and rise in detection capacity of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in early 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Belloir ◽  
Francois Blanquart
Keyword(s):  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Data ◽  
Global Reduction

To better control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, it is essential to quantify the impact of control measures and the fraction of infected individuals that are detected. To this end we developed a deterministic transmission model based on the renewal equation and fitted the model to daily case and death data in the first few months of 2020 in 79 countries and states, representing 4.2 billions individuals. Based on a region-specific infection fatality ratio, we inferred the time-varying probability of case detection and the time-varying decline in transmissiblity. As a validation, the predicted total number of infected was close to that found in serosurveys; more importantly, the inferred probability of detection strongly correlated with the number of daily tests per inhabitant, with 50% detection achieved with 0.003 daily tests per inhabitants. Most of the decline in transmission was explained by the reductions in transmissibility (social distancing), which avoided 10 millions deaths in the regions studied over the first four months of 2020. In contrast, symptom-based testing and isolation of positive cases was not an efficient way to control the spread of the disease, as a large part of transmission happens before symptoms and only a small fraction of infected individuals was typically detected. The latter is explained by the limited number of tests available, and the fact that increasing test capacity increases the probability of detection less than proportionally. Together these results suggest that little control can be achieved by symptom-based testing and isolation alone.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of a Coronavirus Vaccine Among Low and High Risk Populations in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Ruffin ◽  
Ariana Richardson ◽  
Enahoro A Iboi
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
High Risk Populations ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was first reported in the U.S. on December 29, 2019 and has spread rapidly throughout the country, affecting individuals with varying severity due to their risk status. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it is estimated that 45.4% of US adults are at higher risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of a COVID-19 vaccine among low and high risk groups. Numerical simulations shows vaccinating both low and high risk groups simultaneously, rather than prioritizing the vaccine on high risk group only, further reduces the daily mortality. The result supports the need for an aggressive vaccination program, regardless of whether individuals are within the low or high risk population.

scholarly journals The Disproportionate Impact of COVID-19 on Older Latino Mortality: The Rapidly Diminishing Latino Paradox

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rogelio Sáenz ◽  
Marc A Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Future Research ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Latino Paradox ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Causes Of Deaths ◽  
The Impact ◽  
White Adults

Abstract Objectives This brief report aims to highlight stark mortality disparities among older Latinos that result from the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods We use recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to compute age-specific death rates (ASDRs) for 3 causes of death: deaths from COVID-19, residual deaths, and total deaths for 4 age groups (55–64, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and older) to assess the impact of COVID-19 on older Latino mortality relative to non-Latino Whites and non-Latino Blacks and also in comparison to residual deaths. Additionally, we obtain ASDRs for all causes of deaths from 1999 to 2018 to provide a pre-pandemic context and assess the extent to which the consistently observed mortality advantage among Latinos persists during the pandemic. Results Consistent with previous research, our findings show that Latinos have lower ASDRs for non-COVID-19 causes of death across all age groups compared to non-Latino Whites. However, our findings indicate that Latinos have significantly higher ASDRs for COVID-19 deaths than non-Latino Whites. Furthermore, although the Latino advantage for total deaths persists during the pandemic, it has diminished significantly compared to the 1999–2018 period. Discussion Our findings indicate that as a result of the pandemic, the time-tested Latino paradox has rapidly diminished due to higher COVID-19 mortality among older Latino adults compared to non-Latino Whites. Future research should continue to monitor the impact of COVID-19 to assess the disparate impact of the pandemic on older non-Latino Black, Latino, and non-Latino White adults as additional data become available.

scholarly journals Tech Trends of COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 257-260
Author(s):  
Mary Adewunmi
Keyword(s):  
Communication Technology ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
The World ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Current Outbreak ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

With the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus called several acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) was first selected in Wuhan (Hubei, China) in December 2019. This disease has spread to almost all the countries in the world with hundreds of thousands of deaths. This study aims to review the tech trends topping the chart in the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to highlight the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and how it has improved the quality of human lives by increasing business operations, economic and social activities in the world.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Association and treatment of diabetes in patients affected by Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1198-1201
Author(s):  
Syed Yasir Afaque
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Treatment Of Diabetes ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Composite Outcomes ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

In December 2019, a unique coronavirus infection, SARS-CoV-2, was first identified in the province of Wuhan in China. Since then, it spread rapidly all over the world and has been responsible for a large number of morbidity and mortality among humans. According to a latest study, Diabetes mellitus, heart diseases, Hypertension etc. are being considered important risk factors for the development of this infection and is also associated with unfavorable outcomes in these patients. There is little evidence concerning the trail back of these patients possibly because of a small number of participants and people who experienced primary composite outcomes (such as admission in the ICU, usage of machine-driven ventilation or even fatality of these patients). Until now, there are no academic findings that have proven independent prognostic value of diabetes on death in the novel Coronavirus patients. However, there are several conjectures linking Diabetes with the impact as well as progression of COVID-19 in these patients. The aim of this review is to acknowledge about the association amongst Diabetes and the novel Coronavirus and the result of the infection in such patients.

Impact of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Pregnant Women: A Review

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saima Habeeb ◽  
Manju Chugani
Keyword(s):  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Vertical Transmission ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Fetal Outcome ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

: The novel coronavirus infection (COVID‐19) is a global public health emergency.Since its outbreak in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the infection has spread at an alarming rate across the globe and humans have been locked down to their countries, cities and homes. As of now, the virus has affected over 20million people globally and has inflicted over 7 lac deaths. Nevertheless, the recovery rate is improving with each passing day and over 14 million people have recuperated so far. The statistics indicate that nobody is immune to the disease as the virus continues to spread among all age groups; newborns to the elders, and all compartmentsincluding pregnant women. However, pregnant women may be more susceptible to this infection as they are, in general, highly vulnerable to respiratory infections. There is no evidence for vertical transmission of the COVID-19 virus among pregnant women, but an increased prevalence of preterm deliveries. Besides this, the COVID-19 may alter immune response at the maternal-fetal interface and affect the well-being of mothers as well as infants. Unfortunately, there is limited evidence available in the open literature regarding coronavirus infection during pregnancy and it now appears that certain pregnant women have infected during the present 2019-nCoV pandemic. In this short communication, we study the impact of the COVID-19 infection on vertical transmission and fetal outcome among pregnant women.

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