scholarly journals Using Phylogenomic Data to Explore the Effects of Relaxed Clocks and Calibration Strategies on Divergence Time Estimation: Primates as a Test Case

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario dos Reis ◽  
Gregg F. Gunnell ◽  
José Barba-Montoya ◽  
Alex Wilkins ◽  
Ziheng Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sequence Data ◽  
Divergence Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Base Pairs ◽  
Molecular Sequence Data ◽  
Divergence Time Estimation ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
Clock Models

AbstractPrimates have long been a test case for the development of phylogenetic methods for divergence time estimation. Despite a large number of studies, however, the timing of origination of crown Primates relative to the K-Pg boundary and the timing of diversification of the main crown groups remain controversial. Here we analysed a dataset of 372 taxa (367 Primates and 5 outgroups, 61 thousand base pairs) that includes nine complete primate genomes (3.4 million base pairs). We systematically explore the effect of different interpretations of fossil calibrations and molecular clock models on primate divergence time estimates. We find that even small differences in the construction of fossil calibrations can have a noticeable impact on estimated divergence times, especially for the oldest nodes in the tree. Notably, choice of molecular rate model (auto-correlated or independently distributed rates) has an especially strong effect on estimated times, with the independent rates model producing considerably more ancient estimates for the deeper nodes in the phylogeny. We implement thermodynamic integration, combined with Gaussian quadrature, in the program MCMCTree, and use it to calculate Bayes factors for clock models. Bayesian model selection indicates that the auto-correlated rates model fits the primate data substantially better, and we conclude that time estimates under this model should be preferred. We show that for eight core nodes in the phylogeny, uncertainty in time estimates is close to the theoretical limit imposed by fossil uncertainties. Thus, these estimates are unlikely to be improved by collecting additional molecular sequence data. All analyses place the origin of Primates close to the K-Pg boundary, either in the Cretaceous or straddling the boundary into the Palaeogene.

scholarly journals Uncertainty in divergence time estimation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Carruthers ◽  
Robert W Scotland
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Record ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Divergence Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Divergence Time Estimation ◽  
Diversification Rates ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Use Of Time ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
Highly Sensitive

Abstract Understanding and representing uncertainty is crucial in academic research, because it enables studies to build on the conclusions of previous studies, leading to robust advances in a particular field. Here, we evaluate the nature of uncertainty and the manner by which it is represented in divergence time estimation, a field that is fundamental to many aspects of macroevolutionary research, and where there is evidence that uncertainty has been seriously underestimated. We address this issue in the context of methods used in divergence time estimation, and with respect to the manner by which time-calibrated phylogenies are interpreted. With respect to methods, we discuss how the assumptions underlying different methods may not adequately reflect uncertainty about molecular evolution, the fossil record, or diversification rates. Therefore, divergence time estimates may not adequately reflect uncertainty, and may be directly contradicted by subsequent findings. For the interpretation of time-calibrated phylogenies, we discuss how the use of time-calibrated phylogenies for reconstructing general evolutionary timescales leads to inferences about macroevolution that are highly sensitive to methodological limitations in how uncertainty is accounted for. By contrast, we discuss how the use of time-calibrated phylogenies to test specific hypotheses leads to inferences about macroevolution that are less sensitive to methodological limitations. Given that many biologists wish to use time-calibrated phylogenies to reconstruct general evolutionary timescales, we conclude that the development of methods of divergence time estimation that adequately account for uncertainty is necessary.

scholarly journals The Implications of Lineage-Specific Rates for Divergence Time Estimation

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 660-670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Carruthers ◽  
Michael J Sanderson ◽  
Robert W Scotland
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Error ◽  
Divergence Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Rate Variation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Divergence Time Estimation ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Highest Posterior Density

Abstract Rate variation adds considerable complexity to divergence time estimation in molecular phylogenies. Here, we evaluate the impact of lineage-specific rates—which we define as among-branch-rate-variation that acts consistently across the entire genome. We compare its impact to residual rates—defined as among-branch-rate-variation that shows a different pattern of rate variation at each sampled locus, and gene-specific rates—defined as variation in the average rate across all branches at each sampled locus. We show that lineage-specific rates lead to erroneous divergence time estimates, regardless of how many loci are sampled. Further, we show that stronger lineage-specific rates lead to increasing error. This contrasts to residual rates and gene-specific rates, where sampling more loci significantly reduces error. If divergence times are inferred in a Bayesian framework, we highlight that error caused by lineage-specific rates significantly reduces the probability that the 95% highest posterior density includes the correct value, and leads to sensitivity to the prior. Use of a more complex rate prior—which has recently been proposed to model rate variation more accurately—does not affect these conclusions. Finally, we show that the scale of lineage-specific rates used in our simulation experiments is comparable to that of an empirical data set for the angiosperm genus Ipomoea. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that lineage-specific rates cause error in divergence time estimates, and that this error is not overcome by analyzing genomic scale multilocus data sets. [Divergence time estimation; error; rate variation.]

scholarly journals Diversification of Neoaves: integration of molecular sequence data and fossils

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 543-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per G.P Ericson ◽  
Cajsa L Anderson ◽  
Tom Britton ◽  
Andrzej Elzanowski ◽  
Ulf S Johansson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sequence Data ◽  
Divergence Time ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Molecular Data ◽  
Molecular Evidence ◽  
Molecular Sequence Data ◽  
Molecular Sequence ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
Early Tertiary

Patterns of diversification and timing of evolution within Neoaves, which includes almost 95% of all bird species, are virtually unknown. On the other hand, molecular data consistently indicate a Cretaceous origin of many neoavian lineages and the fossil record seems to support an Early Tertiary diversification. Here, we present the first well-resolved molecular phylogeny for Neoaves, together with divergence time estimates calibrated with a large number of stratigraphically and phylogenetically well-documented fossils. Our study defines several well-supported clades within Neoaves. The calibration results suggest that Neoaves, after an initial split from Galloanseres in Mid-Cretaceous, diversified around or soon after the K/T boundary. Our results thus do not contradict palaeontological data and show that there is no solid molecular evidence for an extensive pre-Tertiary radiation of Neoaves.

scholarly journals Ignoring stratigraphic age uncertainty leads to erroneous estimates of species divergence times under the fossilized birth-death process

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joëlle Barido-Sottani ◽  
Gabriel Aguirre-Fernández ◽  
Melanie Hopkins ◽  
Tanja Stadler ◽  
Rachel Warnock
Keyword(s):  
Divergence Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Divergence Times ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Species Divergence ◽  
Divergence Time Estimation ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
Birth Death

AbstractFossil information is essential for estimating species divergence times, and can be integrated into Bayesian phylogenetic inference using the fossilized birth-death (FBD) process. An important aspect of palaeontological data is the uncertainty surrounding specimen ages, which can be handled in different ways during inference. The most common approach is to fix fossil ages to a point estimate within the known age interval. Alternatively, age uncertainty can be incorporated by using priors, and fossil ages are then directly sampled as part of the inference. This study presents a comparison of alternative approaches for handling fossil age uncertainty in analysis using the FBD process. Based on simulations, we find that fixing fossil ages to the midpoint or a random point drawn from within the stratigraphic age range leads to biases in divergence time estimates, while sampling fossil ages leads to estimates that are similar to inferences that employ the correct ages of fossils. Second, we show a comparison using an empirical dataset of extant and fossil cetaceans, which confirms that different methods of handling fossil age uncertainty lead to large differences in estimated node ages. Stratigraphic age uncertainty should thus not be ignored in divergence time estimation and instead should be incorporated explicitly.

scholarly journals Strategies for Partitioning Clock Models in Phylogenomic Dating: Application to the Angiosperm Evolutionary Timescale

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles S. P. Foster ◽  
Simon Y. W. Ho
Keyword(s):  
Sequence Data ◽  
Divergence Time ◽  
Molecular Dating ◽  
Sequence Length ◽  
Rate Heterogeneity ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Molecular Sequence Data ◽  
Molecular Sequence ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Time Estimates

AbstractEvolutionary timescales can be inferred from molecular sequence data using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach. In these methods, the molecular clock is often calibrated using fossil data. The uncertainty in these fossil calibrations is important because it determines the limiting posterior distribution for divergence-time estimates as the sequence length tends to infinity. Here we investigate how the accuracy and precision of Bayesian divergence-time estimates improve with the increased clock-partitioning of genome-scale data into clock-subsets. We focus on a data set comprising plastome-scale sequences of 52 angiosperm taxa. There was little difference among the Bayesian date estimates whether we chose clock-subsets based on patterns of among-lineage rate heterogeneity or relative rates across genes, or by random assignment. Increasing the degree of clock-partitioning usually led to an improvement in the precision of divergence-time estimates, but this increase was asymptotic to a limit presumably imposed by fossil calibrations. Our clock-partitioning approaches yielded highly precise age estimates for several key nodes in the angiosperm phylogeny. For example, when partitioning the data into 20 clock-subsets based on patterns of among-lineage rate heterogeneity, we inferred crown angiosperms to have arisen 198–178 Ma. This demonstrates that judicious clock-partitioning can improve the precision of molecular dating based on phylogenomic data, but the meaning of this increased precision should be considered critically.

scholarly journals Ignoring stratigraphic age uncertainty leads to erroneous estimates of species divergence times under the fossilized birth–death process

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1902) ◽  
pp. 20190685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joëlle Barido-Sottani ◽  
Gabriel Aguirre-Fernández ◽  
Melanie J. Hopkins ◽  
Tanja Stadler ◽  
Rachel Warnock
Keyword(s):  
Divergence Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Divergence Times ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Species Divergence ◽  
Divergence Time Estimation ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
Birth Death

Fossil information is essential for estimating species divergence times, and can be integrated into Bayesian phylogenetic inference using the fossilized birth–death (FBD) process. An important aspect of palaeontological data is the uncertainty surrounding specimen ages, which can be handled in different ways during inference. The most common approach is to fix fossil ages to a point estimate within the known age interval. Alternatively, age uncertainty can be incorporated by using priors, and fossil ages are then directly sampled as part of the inference. This study presents a comparison of alternative approaches for handling fossil age uncertainty in analysis using the FBD process. Based on simulations, we find that fixing fossil ages to the midpoint or a random point drawn from within the stratigraphic age range leads to biases in divergence time estimates, while sampling fossil ages leads to estimates that are similar to inferences that employ the correct ages of fossils. Second, we show a comparison using an empirical dataset of extant and fossil cetaceans, which confirms that different methods of handling fossil age uncertainty lead to large differences in estimated node ages. Stratigraphic age uncertainty should thus not be ignored in divergence time estimation and instead should be incorporated explicitly.

scholarly journals Assessing the quality of molecular divergence time estimates by fossil calibrations and fossil–based model selection

2004 ◽  
Vol 359 (1450) ◽  
pp. 1477-1483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Near ◽  
Michael J. Sanderson
Keyword(s):  
Cross Validation ◽  
Sequence Data ◽  
Divergence Time ◽  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Optimal Estimation ◽  
Divergence Time Estimation ◽  
Fossil Calibration ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
The Impact

Estimates of species divergence times using DNA sequence data are playing an increasingly important role in studies of evolution, ecology and biogeography. Most work has centred on obtaining appropriate kinds of data and developing optimal estimation procedures, whereas somewhat less attention has focused on the calibration of divergences using fossils. Case studies with multiple fossil calibration points provide important opportunities to examine the divergence time estimation problem in new ways. We discuss two cross–validation procedures that address different aspects of inference in divergence time estimation. ‘Fossil cross–validation’ is a procedure used to identify the impact of different individual calibrations on overall estimation. This can identify fossils that have an exceptionally large error effect and may warrant further scrutiny. ‘Fossil–based model cross–validation’ is an entirely different procedure that uses fossils to identify the optimal model of molecular evolution in the context of rate smoothing or other inference methods. Both procedures were applied to two recent studies: an analysis of monocot angiosperms with eight fossil calibrations and an analysis of placental mammals with nine fossil calibrations. In each case, fossil calibrations could be ranked from most to least influential, and in one of the two studies, the fossils provided decisive evidence about the optimal molecular evolutionary model.

Molecular relationships of the cuscuses, brushtail and scaly-tailed possums (Phalangerinae)

2002 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 135 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Osborne ◽  
L. Christidis
Keyword(s):  
Middle Miocene ◽  
Sequence Data ◽  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
Divergence Time ◽  
Species Relationships ◽  
Base Pairs ◽  
Dna Sequence Data ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
Molecular Relationships

DNA sequence data (1040 base pairs) from the mitochondrial nicotinamide dehydrogenase subunit 2 gene (ND2) was used to elucidate species relationships within the Phalangerinae (cuscuses, brushtail and scaly-tailed possums). Phylogenetic analyses revealed three lineages within this family (Spilocuscus, Phalanger and Trichosurus-Wyulda), which is congruent with the results of other molecular studies. Sequence data also demonstrate that P. orientalis, P. carmelitae, P. vestitus, and P. sericeus are closely related and indicates that P. gymnotis is the sister lineage to the genus Phalanger. Divergence time estimates indicate that the radiation of Phalanger and Spilocuscus occurred during the middle Miocene to Pliocene periods.

Genetic Differentiation and Divergence Time of Chinese Parnassius (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) Species Based on Nuclear Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) Sequence Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 520-546
Author(s):  
Chengcai Si ◽  
Keke Chen ◽  
Ruisong Tao ◽  
Chengyong Su ◽  
Junye Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Analysis ◽  
Genetic Differentiation ◽  
Species Identification ◽  
Internal Transcribed Spacer ◽  
Sequence Data ◽  
Divergence Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Western China ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Divergence Time Estimation

Abstract Parnassius (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) is a genus of attractive butterflies mainly distributed in the mountainous areas of Central Asia, the Himalayas, and western China. In this study, we used the internal transcribed spacer (ITS1 and ITS2) sequence data as DNA barcodes to characterize the genetic differentiation and conduct the phylogenetic analysis and divergence time estimation of the 17 Parnassius species collected in China. Species identification and genetic differentiation analysis suggest that the ITS barcode is an effective marker for Parnassius species identification; additionally, a relatively high level of genetic diversity and low level of gene flow were detected in the five Parnassius species with diverse geographic populations. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the 17 species studied were clustered in six clades (subgenera), with subgenus Parnassius at the basal position in the phylogenetic trees. Bayesian divergence time estimation shows that the genus originated about 18 million years ago during the early Miocene, correlated with orogenic events in the distribution region, probably southwestern China about 20–10 million years ago. Our estimated phylochronology also suggests that the Parnassius interspecific and intraspecific divergences were probably related with the rapid rising of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Tibet Movement, the Kunlun-Yellow River Tectonic Movement, and global cooling associated with intensified glaciation in the region during the Quaternary Period.

scholarly journals Problems related to the taxonomic placement of incompletely preserved amber fossils: transfer of the Paleogene liverwort <i>Cylindrocolea dimorpha</i> (Cephaloziellaceae) to the extant <i>Odontoschisma</i> sect. <i>Iwatsukia</i> (Cephaloziaceae)

Fossil Record ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathrin Feldberg ◽  
Jiří Váňa ◽  
Alfons Schäfer-Verwimp ◽  
Michael Krings ◽  
Carsten Gröhn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dna Sequence ◽  
Sequence Data ◽  
Divergence Time ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Crown Group ◽  
Fossil Species ◽  
Dna Sequence Data ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. A revision of the Baltic and Bitterfeld amber fossils assigned to Cylindrocolea dimorpha (Cephaloziellaceae) has yielded evidence of the presence of multicellular, bifid underleaves, which have not previously been reported for this species and conflict with the current circumscription of the family. We transfer the fossil species to Odontoschisma (sect. Iwatsukia) and propose the new combination O. dimorpha of the Cephaloziaceae. Characteristics of the fossil include an overall small size of the plant, entire-margined, bifid leaves and underleaves, more or less equally thickened leaf cell walls, ventral branching that includes stoloniform branches with reduced leaves, and the lack of a stem hyalodermis and gemmae. Placement of the fossil in Cephaloziaceae profoundly affects divergence time estimates for liverworts based on DNA sequence variation with integrated information from the fossil record. Our reclassification concurs with hypotheses on the divergence times of Cephaloziaceae derived from DNA sequence data that provide evidence of a late Early Cretaceous to early Eocene age of the Odontoschisma crown group and an origin of O. sect. Iwatsukia in the Late Cretaceous to Oligocene.

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