scholarly journals Discrete confidence levels revealed by sequential decisions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Lisi ◽  
Gianluigi Mongillo ◽  
Andrei Gorea
Keyword(s):  
Stimulus Level ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Opt Out ◽  
Under Sampling ◽  
Subjective Confidence ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Bayesian Strategy

AbstractWhether humans are optimal decision makers is still a debated issue in the realm of perceptual decisions. Taking advantage of the direct link between an optimal decision-making and the confidence in that decision, we offer a new dual-decisions method of inferring such confidence without asking for its explicit valuation. Our method circumvents the well-known miscalibration issue with explicit confidence reports as well as the specification of the cost-function required by ‘opt-out’ or post-decision wagering methods. We show that observers’ inferred confidence in their first decision and its use in a subsequent decision (conditioned upon the correctness of the first) fall short of both the ideal Bayesian strategy, as well as of an under-sampling approximation or a modified Bayesian strategy augmented with an additional bias term to accommodate global miscalibration of confidence. The observed data are instead significantly better fitted by a model positing that observers use only few confidence levels or states, at odds with the continuous confidence function of stimulus level prescribed by a normative behavior. These findings question the validity of normative-Bayesian accounts of subjective confidence and metaperceptual judgments.

Auto-DR Optimal Decision-Making Method of Smart Home Based on RTP

2014 ◽  
Vol 602-605 ◽  
pp. 3817-3821
Author(s):  
Ying Liang ◽  
Rui Zou ◽  
Sun An Wang ◽  
Meng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Power Grids ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Cost Of Electricity ◽  
Decision Method ◽  
Home Based ◽  
Residential Electricity ◽  
Electricity Load ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
The Cost

One optimization decision method is presented in order to solve the problem of how to realize demand response according to RTP in residential electricity. This method aims at minimizing the cost of electricity and the dissatisfaction of the power consumer. Optimization decision model is built based on the classification of residential electricity load and the model is solved by genetic algorithm.The results of an example show that optimal decision-making method can help reduce the cost of electricity and be beneficial to regional power grids’ load shifting. Applying this optimization decision method to AMI can realize Auto-DR according to price signal.

scholarly journals Optimal decision making and matching are tied through diminishing returns

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (32) ◽  
pp. 8499-8504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Kubanek
Keyword(s):  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Matching Law ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Choice Situation ◽  
Social Settings ◽  
Diminishing Returns ◽  
The Law ◽  
Reward Contingencies ◽  
Optimal Decision Making

How individuals make decisions has been a matter of long-standing debate among economists and researchers in the life sciences. In economics, subjects are viewed as optimal decision makers who maximize their overall reward income. This framework has been widely influential, but requires a complete knowledge of the reward contingencies associated with a given choice situation. Psychologists and ecologists have observed that individuals tend to use a simpler “matching” strategy, distributing their behavior in proportion to relative rewards associated with their options. This article demonstrates that the two dominant frameworks of choice behavior are linked through the law of diminishing returns. The relatively simple matching can in fact provide maximal reward when the rewards associated with decision makers’ options saturate with the invested effort. Such saturating relationships between reward and effort are hallmarks of the law of diminishing returns. Given the prevalence of diminishing returns in nature and social settings, this finding can explain why humans and animals so commonly behave according to the matching law. The article underscores the importance of the law of diminishing returns in choice behavior.

scholarly journals Neurons in the Frontal Lobe Encode the Value of Multiple Decision Variables

2009 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1162-1178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven W. Kennerley ◽  
Aspandiar F. Dahmubed ◽  
Antonio H. Lara ◽  
Jonathan D. Wallis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Frontal Cortex ◽  
Behavioral Science ◽  
Anterior Cingulate ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Decision Variables ◽  
Probability Of Success ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
The Cost

A central question in behavioral science is how we select among choice alternatives to obtain consistently the most beneficial outcomes. Three variables are particularly important when making a decision: the potential payoff, the probability of success, and the cost in terms of time and effort. A key brain region in decision making is the frontal cortex as damage here impairs the ability to make optimal choices across a range of decision types. We simultaneously recorded the activity of multiple single neurons in the frontal cortex while subjects made choices involving the three aforementioned decision variables. This enabled us to contrast the relative contribution of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), the orbito-frontal cortex, and the lateral prefrontal cortex to the decision-making process. Neurons in all three areas encoded value relating to choices involving probability, payoff, or cost manipulations. However, the most significant signals were in the ACC, where neurons encoded multiplexed representations of the three different decision variables. This supports the notion that the ACC is an important component of the neural circuitry underlying optimal decision making.

scholarly journals Privileged access to drugs in Russia and differential inflation of its monetary substitute

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
V Vlassov ◽  
M Kornilov
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Opt Out ◽  
The Social ◽  
Real Value ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Drug Provision ◽  
Differential Inflation

Abstract Background and Objectives One of the most acute problems of current healthcare in Russia is the absence of drug provision in ambulatory care. Only invalids and war veterans are eligible for the free drugs. In 2005 this and other natural privileges were monetized - eligible people were offered to opt out for the money equivalent. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the monetary substitution of the social services, specifically the inflation of the money substitution of drugs. Materials and Methods We use the official state statistics and evaluate the inflation using the official inflation rate and using the BigMac Index from 2005 to 2019. Results Over the past 10 years, the nominal value of the monetary equivalent of the set of social services has grown by 149% in nominal prices (from 450 to 1121 roubles, years 2005-2018). Official inflation over these years was 197%. Measured by BigMac Index the set of social services depreciated from 10.7 to 8.3. The cost of the drug provision subset had depreciated even more - from 9.52 to 6.39 units. The pensions during this period had increased in nominal, inflation-adjusted monetary size, and as measured by BigMac index. A set of social services in the natural equivalent decreased by 22.4%. The drug subset had depreciated even more - by 67.1%. Conclusions During the period from 2005 to 2019, the cost of a set of social services provided to the eligible citizens in monetary terms grew, while inflation-adjusted value and in physical terms it depreciated. Especially significant was the decrease of the value of the drug provision due to incomplete indexation for inflation. The decrease in the real value of the set of social services provided to vulnerable groups of citizens is an alarming trend. It is long lasting, and reflect the low priority of the drug provision for the decision makers. Key messages The value of the drug provision package is insufficiently corrected for inflation. The depreciation of the drug provision is long term and different from the other components of social support.

scholarly journals Plithogenic n-Super Hypergraph in Novel Multi-Attribute Decision Making

2020 ◽  
pp. 08-30
Author(s):  
Florentin .. ◽  
◽  
◽  
Nivetha Martin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Vertex Classification ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
Novel Concept

An optimal decision-making environment demands feasible Multi-Attribute Decision-Making methods. Plithogenic n – Super Hypergraph introduced by Smarandache is a novel concept and it involves many attributes. This article aims to bridge the concept of Plithogenic n-Super Hypergraph in the vicinity of optimal decision making. This research work introduces the novel concepts of enveloping vertex, super enveloping vertex, dominant enveloping vertex, classification of the dominant enveloping vertex (input, intervene, output dominant enveloping vertices), plithogenic connectors. An application of Plithogenic n-super hypergraph in making optimum decisions is discussed under various decision-making scenarios. Several insights are drawn from this research work and will certainly benefit the decision-makers to overcome the challenges in building decisions.

Creative Thinking and Problem Finding Underlie Optimal Decision Making

2011 ◽  
pp. 24-44
Author(s):  
Robert Thierauf ◽  
James Hoctor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Problem Finding ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
Over Time

• To explore rethinking creative thinking in terms of what needs to be done organizationally over time • To look at the various creative techniques that are useful to decision makers • To explore the use of problem finding from the standpoint of turning problems into opportunities • To examine how problem finding can assist in expanding the wisdom of decision makers

scholarly journals Paying a price for information: Non-optimal decision making and preference for information over expected value outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 1394-1398
Author(s):  
Christopher D. Wickens ◽  
Charles Smith ◽  
Benjamin Clegg ◽  
Nathan Herdener
Keyword(s):  
Good Deal ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Current Experiment ◽  
Financial Gain ◽  
Purchase Cost ◽  
Expected Gain ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
The Cost ◽  
And Training

The information purchase bias describes a tendency to opt for information that reduces uncertainty, even when the cost of information is associated with a substantial net reduction in expected value. The current experiment quantified the amount of information that could be purchased in terms of increased certainty of finding a target (a downed aircraft) by purchasing a more expensive, but more powerful sensor. In a “good deal” block, the expected financial gain of finding the target with the upgraded purchase clearly exceeded the cost of the purchase. In a neutral deal block the two terms were equal and in the bad deal block the purchase cost far exceeded the expected gain. The neutral deal was purchased 65% of the time (15% bias); and the bad deal purchased 50% of the time, where the optimal strategy would have been to never purchase. Implications for automation and training are discussed.

scholarly journals OPTIMAL DECISION MAKING FOR ONLINE AND OFFLINE RETAILERS UNDER BOPS MODE

2016 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
XINGRAN CHEN ◽  
YONGMEI LIU ◽  
ZHONG WAN
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Online Retailer ◽  
Business Form ◽  
New Business ◽  
Managerial Implications ◽  
Stochastic Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
The Cost

As a new business form, the buy-online and pick-up-in-store (BOPS) mode allows consumers to pay for goods online and pick them up in a physical store. In this paper, an equilibrium model is constructed to formulate an optimal decision-making problem for online and offline retailers under the BOPS mode, where the online retailer determines the retail price of the goods and the consignment quantity in a physical store, while the offline retailer chooses the revenue share of profit by a consignment contract. Different to the existing models, the cost of overstocking and loss of understocking are incorporated into the profit function of the online retailer due to the randomness of demand. For the objective function of the offline retailer, the cross-sale quantity generated by the BOPS mode is taken into account. Then the game between the online and offline retailers is expressed as a stochastic Nash equilibrium model. Based on the analytic properties of the model, necessary conditions for the equilibrium solution are obtained. A case study and sensitivity analysis are employed to reveal the managerial implications of the model, which can provide a number of valuable suggestions on optimizing the strategies for the online and offline retailers under the BOPS mode.

Leading under pressure: evaluating the decision-making style of NHL coaches

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-112
Author(s):  
Kim Trottier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Heuristics And Biases ◽  
Corporate Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
Analytical Dimension ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to establish the optimal decision-making style in a fast-paced, complex, and dynamic environment. Design/methodology/approach Three decision-making attributes are explored: the use of intuition vs analysis, the proclivity to heuristics, and susceptibility to bias. The intuition/analysis is tested with a questionnaire that has been validated in prior research, while information on the two other dimensions is from an exploratory survey designed for this purpose. Responses to the survey questions provide some insight into the differential decision-making style of elite NHL hockey coaches’ vis-à-vis amateur coaches and news reporters. Findings The data suggest elite decision makers have no preference for intuitive or analytical settings, but exhibit a significantly higher perception of their ability to perform in both. While current literature shows sports athletes to be more intuitive, it appears coaches excel on the analytical dimension instead. This study finds that while elite hockey coaches have fewer biases overall, they tend in particular to be overly optimistic in comparison to amateur coaches and news reporters. Research limitations/implications The main limitation in this paper is that the survey on heuristics and biases is exploratory, making these results less robust than the findings on intuition and analysis. Originality/value This paper is first to extend the decision-making literature to coaches, and among few papers that obtain insights from NHL coaches directly. The findings are likely to extend to corporate leadership as well, increasing the relevance of the results.

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