scholarly journals Coalescent models for populations with time-varying population sizes and arbitrary offspring distributions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Fraser ◽  
Lucy M Li
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Offspring Distribution ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Original Derivation ◽  
Large Population Limit

AbstractThe coalescent has been used to infer from gene genealogies the population dynamics of biological systems, such as the prevalence of an infectious disease. The offspring distribution affects the relationship between population dynamics and the genealogy, and for infectious diseases, the offspring distribution is often highly overdispersed. Here, we provide a general formula for the coalescent rate for populations with time-varying sizes and any offspring distribution. The formula is valid in the same large population limit as Kingman’s original derivation. By relating our derivation to existing formulations of the coalescent, we show that differences in the coalescent rate derived for many population models may be explained by differences in the offspring distribution. The coalescent derivations presented here could be used to quantify the overdispersion in the offspring distribution of infectious diseases, which is useful for accurate modelling disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals Relationship between Flooding and Out Break of Infectious Diseasesin Kenya: A Review of the Literature

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fredrick Okoth Okaka ◽  
Beneah D. O. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Relationship

Flooding can potentially increase the spread of infectious diseases. To enhance good understanding of the health consequences of flooding and facilitate planning for mitigation strategies, deeper consideration of the relationship between flooding and out-break of infectious diseases is required. This paper examines the relationship between occurrence of floods in Kenya and outbreak of infectious diseases and possible interventions. This review intended to build up the quality and comprehensiveness of evidence on infectious diseases arising after flooding incidence in Kenya. An extensive literature review was conducted in 2017, and published literature from 2000 to 2017 was retrieved. This review suggests that infectious disease outbreaks such as waterborne, rodent-borne, and vector-borne diseases have been associated with flooding in Kenya. But there is need for more good quality epidemiological data to cement the evidence. Comprehensive surveillance and risk assessment, early warning systems, emergency planning, and well-coordinated collaborations are essential in reducing future vulnerability to infectious diseases following flooding.

scholarly journals Sector-by-sector analysis of dependence dynamics between global large-cap companies and infectious diseases: A time-varying copula approach in EBOV and COVID-19 episodes

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259282
Author(s):  
Mahdi Ghaemi Asl ◽  
Hamid Reza Tavakkoli ◽  
Muhammad Mahdi Rashidi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Copula Approach ◽  
Sector Analysis ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

Infectious diseases and widespread outbreaks influence different sectors of the economy, including the stock market. In this article, we investigate the effect of EBOV and COVID-19 outbreaks on stock market indices. We employ time-varying and constant bivariate copula methods to measure the dependence structure between the infectious disease equity market volatility index (IEMV) and the stock market indices of several sectors. The results show that the financial and communication services sectors have the highest and the lowest negative dependency on IEMV during the Ebola virus (EBOV) pandemic, respectively. However, the health care and energy sectors have the highest and lowest negative dependency on IEMV during the COVID-19 outbreak, respectively. Therefore, the results confirm the heterogeneous time-varying dependency between infectious diseases and the stock market indices. The finding of our study contributes to the ongoing literature on the impact of disease outbreaks, especially the novel coronavirus outbreak on global large-cap companies in the stock market.

scholarly journals Evolutionary Method of Detecting Intrusions using Different Population Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1924-1931
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Local Optima ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Dynamic Population

Chaos theory plays a vital role in any evolutionary based algorithms for avoiding the local optima and to improve the convergence speed. Various researchers have used different methods to increase the detection rate and to speed up the convergence. Some researchers have used evolutionary algorithms for the same purpose and has proved that the application of those algorithms provide good results. Most of the researchers have used population sizes which remains constant throughout the evolution. It has been seen that small population size may result in premature convergence and large population size requires more computation time to find a solution. In this paper, a novel application of different population dynamics to the genetic programming (GP) algorithm has been applied to manage the population size. The main focus was to improve the accuracy of the normal GP algorithm by varying the population sizes at each generation. The experiments were conducted on the standard GP algorithm using static and dynamic population sizes. Different population dynamics has been used to check the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The results obtained has shown that dynamic population size gives better results compared to static population size and also solves the problem of local optima.

scholarly journals Pituitary MRI characteristics in 297 acromegaly patients based on T2-weighted sequences

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iulia Potorac ◽  
Patrick Petrossians ◽  
Adrian F Daly ◽  
Franck Schillo ◽  
Claude Ben Slama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Population ◽  
Optic Chiasm ◽  
Research Priority ◽  
Maximal Diameter ◽  
Magnetic Resonance Imaging Mri ◽  
Multimodal Management ◽  
Mri Characteristics ◽  
Weighted Sequences ◽  
The Relationship

Responses of GH-secreting adenomas to multimodal management of acromegaly vary widely between patients. Understanding the behavioral patterns of GH-secreting adenomas by identifying factors predictive of their evolution is a research priority. The aim of this study was to clarify the relationship between the T2-weighted adenoma signal on diagnostic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in acromegaly and clinical and biological features at diagnosis. An international, multicenter, retrospective analysis was performed using a large population of 297 acromegalic patients recently diagnosed with available diagnostic MRI evaluations. The study was conducted at ten endocrine tertiary referral centers. Clinical and biochemical characteristics, and MRI signal findings were evaluated. T2-hypointense adenomas represented 52.9% of the series, were smaller than their T2-hyperintense and isointense counterparts (P<0.0001), were associated with higher IGF1 levels (P=0.0001), invaded the cavernous sinus less frequently (P=0.0002), and rarely caused optic chiasm compression (P<0.0001). Acromegalic men tended to be younger at diagnosis than women (P=0.067) and presented higher IGF1 values (P=0.01). Although in total, adenomas had a predominantly inferior extension in 45.8% of cases, in men this was more frequent (P<0.0001), whereas in women optic chiasm compression of macroadenomas occurred more often (P=0.0067). Most adenomas (45.1%) measured between 11 and 20 mm in maximal diameter and bigger adenomas were diagnosed at younger ages (P=0.0001). The T2-weighted signal differentiates GH-secreting adenomas into subgroups with particular behaviors. This raises the question of whether the T2-weighted signal could represent a factor in the classification of acromegalic patients in future studies.

scholarly journals Linearity extensions of the market model: a case of the top 10 cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Serdar Neslihanoglu
Keyword(s):  
State Space Model ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Crypto Currency ◽  
Beta Risk ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis research investigates the appropriateness of the linear specification of the market model for modeling and forecasting the cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods. Two extensions are offered to compare the performance of the linear specification of the market model (LMM), which allows for the measurement of the cryptocurrency price beta risk. The first is the generalized additive model, which permits flexibility in the rigid shape of the linearity of the LMM. The second is the time-varying linearity specification of the LMM (Tv-LMM), which is based on the state space model form via the Kalman filter, allowing for the measurement of the time-varying beta risk of the cryptocurrency price. The analysis is performed using daily data from both time periods on the top 10 cryptocurrencies by adjusted market capitalization, using the Crypto Currency Index 30 (CCI30) as a market proxy and 1-day and 7-day forward predictions. Such a comparison of cryptocurrency prices has yet to be undertaken in the literature. The empirical findings favor the Tv-LMM, which outperforms the others in terms of modeling and forecasting performance. This result suggests that the relationship between each cryptocurrency price and the CCI30 index should be locally instead of globally linear, especially during the COVID-19 period.

scholarly journals Effects of Infectious Diseases on Population Dynamics of Marine Organisms in Chesapeake Bay

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerelle A. Jesse ◽  
M. Victoria Agnew ◽  
Kohma Arai ◽  
C. Taylor Armstrong ◽  
Shannon M. Hood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Eastern Oyster ◽  
Marine Organisms ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Pathogen Dynamics ◽  
Growth And Reproduction

AbstractDiseases are important drivers of population and ecosystem dynamics. This review synthesizes the effects of infectious diseases on the population dynamics of nine species of marine organisms in the Chesapeake Bay. Diseases generally caused increases in mortality and decreases in growth and reproduction. Effects of diseases on eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) appear to be low in the 2000s compared to effects in the 1980s–1990s. However, the effects of disease were not well monitored for most of the diseases in marine organisms of the Chesapeake Bay, and few studies considered effects on growth and reproduction. Climate change and other anthropogenic effects are expected to alter host-pathogen dynamics, with diseases of some species expected to worsen under predicted future conditions (e.g., increased temperature). Additional study of disease prevalence, drivers of disease, and effects on population dynamics could improve fisheries management and forecasting of climate change effects on marine organisms in the Chesapeake Bay.

scholarly journals Threshold Effects of Infectious Disease Outbreaks on Livestock Prices: Cases of African Swine Fever and Avian Influenza in South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5114
Author(s):  
Hyung-Chul Rah ◽  
Hyeon-Woong Kim ◽  
Aziz Nasridinov ◽  
Wan-Sup Cho ◽  
Seo-Hwa Choi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Impact Response ◽  
Threshold Effects ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
The Impact

In this paper we demonstrate the threshold effects of infectious diseases on livestock prices. Daily retail prices of pork and chicken were used as structured data; news and SNS mentions of African Swine Fever (ASF) and Avian Influenza (AI) were used as unstructured data. Models were tested for the threshold effects of disease-related news and SNS frequencies, specifically those related to ASF and AI, on the retail prices of pork and chicken, respectively. The effects were found to exist, and the values of ASF-related news on pork prices were estimated to be −9 and 8, indicating that the threshold autoregressive (TAR) model can be divided into three regimes. The coefficients of the ASF-related SNS frequencies on pork prices were 1.1666, 0.2663 and −0.1035 for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively, suggesting that pork prices increased by 1.1666 Korean won in regime 1 when ASF-related SNS frequencies increased. To promote pork consumption by SNS posts, the required SNS frequencies were estimated to have impacts as great as one standard deviation in the pork price. These values were 247.057, 1309.158 and 2817.266 for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The impact response periods for pork prices were estimated to last 48, 6, and 8 days for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. When the prediction accuracies of the TAR and autoregressive (AR) models with regard to pork prices were compared for the root mean square error, the prediction accuracy of the TAR model was found to be slightly better than that of the AR. When the threshold effect of AI-related news on chicken prices was tested, a linear relationship appeared without a threshold effect. These findings suggest that when infectious diseases such as ASF occur for the first time, the impact on livestock prices is significant, as indicated by the threshold effect and the long impact response period. Our findings also suggest that the impact on livestock prices is not remarkable when infectious diseases occur multiple times, as in the case of AI. To date, this study is the first to suggest the use of SNS to promote meat consumption.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between TSH and Free T4 in a Large Population Is Complex and Nonlinear and Differs by Age and Sex

2013 ◽  
Vol 98 (7) ◽  
pp. 2936-2943 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narelle C. Hadlow ◽  
Karen M. Rothacker ◽  
Robert Wardrop ◽  
Suzanne J. Brown ◽  
Ee Mun Lim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Population ◽  
Free T4 ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Age And Sex
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