scholarly journals pomp-astic Inference for Epidemic Models: Simple vs. Complex

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Stocks ◽  
Tom Britton ◽  
Michael Höhle

AbstractInfectious disease surveillance data often provides only partial information about the progression of the disease in the individual while disease transmission is often modelled using complex mathematical models for large populations, where variability only enters through a stochastic observation process. In this work it is shown that a rather simplistic, but truly stochastic transmission model, is competitive with respect to model fit when compared with more detailed deterministic transmission models and even preferable because the role of each parameter and its identifiability is clearly understood in the simpler model. The inference framework for the stochastic model is provided by iterated filtering methods which are readily implemented in theR package pomp. We illustrate our findings on German rotavirus surveillance data from 2001 to 2008 and calculate a model based estimate for the basic reproduction numberR0using these data.

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (45) ◽  
pp. E10625-E10633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew F. Brouwer ◽  
Joseph N. S. Eisenberg ◽  
Connor D. Pomeroy ◽  
Lester M. Shulman ◽  
Musa Hindiyeh ◽  
...  

Israel experienced an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in 2013–2014, detected through environmental surveillance of the sewage system. No cases of acute flaccid paralysis were reported, and the epidemic subsided after a bivalent oral polio vaccination (bOPV) campaign. As we approach global eradication, polio will increasingly be detected only through environmental surveillance. We developed a framework to convert quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) cycle threshold data into scaled WPV1 and OPV1 concentrations for inference within a deterministic, compartmental infectious disease transmission model. We used this approach to estimate the epidemic curve and transmission dynamics, as well as assess alternate vaccination scenarios. Our analysis estimates the outbreak peaked in late June, much earlier than previous estimates derived from analysis of stool samples, although the exact epidemic trajectory remains uncertain. We estimate the basic reproduction number was 1.62 (95% CI 1.04–2.02). Model estimates indicate that 59% (95% CI 9–77%) of susceptible individuals (primarily children under 10 years old) were infected with WPV1 over a little more than six months, mostly before the vaccination campaign onset, and that the vaccination campaign averted 10% (95% CI 1–24%) of WPV1 infections. As we approach global polio eradication, environmental monitoring with qPCR can be used as a highly sensitive method to enhance disease surveillance. Our analytic approach brings public health relevance to environmental data that, if systematically collected, can guide eradication efforts.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Havumaki ◽  
Joseph NS Eisenberg ◽  
Claire P Mattison ◽  
Benjamin A Lopman ◽  
Ismael R Ortega-Sanchez ◽  
...  

1AbstractBackgroundNorovirus outbreaks are notoriously explosive, with dramatic symptomology and rapid disease spread. Children are particularly vulnerable to infection and drive norovirus transmission due to their high contact rates with each other and the environment. Despite the explosive nature of norovirus outbreaks, attack rates in schools and daycares remain low with the majority of students not reporting symptoms.MethodsWe explore immunologic and epidemiologic mechanisms that may underlie epidemic norovirus transmission dynamics using a disease transmission model. Towards this end, we compared different model scenarios, including innate resistance and acquired immunity (collectively denoted ‘immunity’), stochastic extinction, and an individual exclusion intervention. We calibrated our model to daycare and school outbreaks from national surveillance data.ResultsRecreating the low attack rates observed in daycare and school outbreaks required a model with immunity. However, immunity alone resulted in shorter duration outbreaks than what was observed. The addition of individual exclusion (to the immunity model) extended outbreak durations by reducing the amount of time that symptomatic people contribute to transmission. Including both immunity and individual exclusion mechanisms resulted in simulations where both attack rates and outbreak durations were consistent with surveillance data.ConclusionsThe epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in daycare and school settings cannot be well described by a simple transmission model in which all individuals start as fully susceptible. Interventions should leverage population immunity and encourage more rigorous individual exclusion to improve venue-level control measures.


2005 ◽  
Vol 13 (04) ◽  
pp. 331-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
PRASENJIT DAS ◽  
DEBASIS MUKHERJEE ◽  
A. K. SARKAR

This study analyzes a model of hepatitis C with acute infectious, chronic infectious and the recovery or immune classes. Stability characters of disease-free and endemic proportionate equilibrium points are discussed. The role of immune system on the long-term survival of the susceptible population is derived. It has been shown that chronic infected populations persist whenever acute infected class persists and conversely. Lastly, the criterion for robustness of the system is established under stochastic perturbations. Numerical simulations are also performed to validate the results obtained.


2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frosso Motti-Stefanidi ◽  
Ann S. Masten

Academic achievement in immigrant children and adolescents is an indicator of current and future adaptive success. Since the future of immigrant youths is inextricably linked to that of the receiving society, the success of their trajectory through school becomes a high stakes issue both for the individual and society. The present article focuses on school success in immigrant children and adolescents, and the role of school engagement in accounting for individual and group differences in academic achievement from the perspective of a multilevel integrative model of immigrant youths’ adaptation ( Motti-Stefanidi, Berry, Chryssochoou, Sam, & Phinney, 2012 ). Drawing on this conceptual framework, school success is examined in developmental and acculturative context, taking into account multiple levels of analysis. Findings suggest that for both immigrant and nonimmigrant youths the relationship between school engagement and school success is bidirectional, each influencing over time the other. Evidence regarding potential moderating and mediating roles of school engagement for the academic success of immigrant youths also is evaluated.


Acta Naturae ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. V. Elizar’ev ◽  
D. V. Lomaev ◽  
D. A. Chetverina ◽  
P. G. Georgiev ◽  
M. M. Erokhin

Maintenance of the individual patterns of gene expression in different cell types is required for the differentiation and development of multicellular organisms. Expression of many genes is controlled by Polycomb (PcG) and Trithorax (TrxG) group proteins that act through association with chromatin. PcG/TrxG are assembled on the DNA sequences termed PREs (Polycomb Response Elements), the activity of which can be modulated and switched from repression to activation. In this study, we analyzed the influence of transcriptional read-through on PRE activity switch mediated by the yeast activator GAL4. We show that a transcription terminator inserted between the promoter and PRE doesnt prevent switching of PRE activity from repression to activation. We demonstrate that, independently of PRE orientation, high levels of transcription fail to dislodge PcG/TrxG proteins from PRE in the absence of a terminator. Thus, transcription is not the main factor required for PRE activity switch.


2019 ◽  
pp. 22-29
Author(s):  
Н. В. Фрадкіна

The purpose and tasks of the work are to analyze the contemporary Ukrainian mass culture in terms of its value and humanistic components, as well as the importance of cultural studies and Ukrainian studies in educational disciplines for the formation of a holistic worldview of modern youth.Analysis of research and publications. Scientists repeatedly turned to the problems of the role of spirituality in the formation of society and its culture. This problem is highlighted in the publications by O. Losev, V. Lytvyn, D. Likhachev, S. Avierintsev, M. Zakovych, I. Stepanenko and E. Kostyshyn.Experts see the main negative impact of mass culture on the quality approach, which determines mass culture through the market, because mass culture, from our point of view, is everything that is sold and used in mass demand.One of the most interesting studies on this issue was the work by the representatives of Frankfurt School M. Horkheimer and T. Adorno «Dialectics of Enlightenment» (1947), devoted to a detailed analysis of mass culture. Propaganda at all socio-cultural levels in the form is similar in both totalitarian and democratic countries. It is connected, according to the authors, with the direction of European enlightenment. The tendency to unify people is a manifestation of the influence of mass culture, from cinema to pop. Mass culture is a phenomenon whose existence is associated with commerce (accumulation in any form – this is the main feature of education), in general, the fact that it exists in this form is related to the direction of the history of civilization.Modern mass culture, with its externally attractive and easily assimilated ideas and symbols, appealing to the trends of modern fashion, becomes a standard of prestigious consumption, does not require intense reflection, allows you to relax, distract, not teach, but entertains, preaches hedonism as the main spiritual value. And as a consequence, there are socio-cultural risks: an active rejection of other people, which leads to the formation of indifference; cruelty as a character trait; increase of violent and mercenary crime; increase in the number of alcohol and drug addicts; anti-patriotism; indifference to the values of the family and as a result of social orphanhood and prostitution.Conclusions, perspectives of research. Thus, we can conclude that modern Ukrainian education is predominantly formed by the values of mass culture. Namely, according to the «Dialectic» by Horkheimer and Adorno, «semi-enlightenment becomes an objective spirit» of our modern society.It is concluded that only high-quality education can create the opposite of the onset of mass culture and the destruction of spirituality in our society. It is proved that only by realizing the importance of cultivating disciplines in the educational process and the spiritual upbringing of the nation, through educational reforms, humanitarian knowledge will gradually return to student audiences.Formation of youth occurs under the influence of social environment, culture, education and self-education. The optimal combination of these factors determines both the process of socialization itself and how successful it will be. In this context, one can see the leading role of education and upbringing. It turns out that the main task of modern education is to spread its influence on the development of spiritual culture of the individual, which eventually becomes a solid foundation for the formation of the individual. Such a subject requires both philosophical and humanitarian approaches in further integrated interdisciplinary research, since the availability of such research will provide the theoretical foundation for truly modern educational and personal development.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinichi Nakagawa ◽  
Malgorzata Lagisz ◽  
Rose E O'Dea ◽  
Joanna Rutkowska ◽  
Yefeng Yang ◽  
...  

‘Classic’ forest plots show the effect sizes from individual studies and the aggregate effect from a meta-analysis. However, in ecology and evolution meta-analyses routinely contain over 100 effect sizes, making the classic forest plot of limited use. We surveyed 102 meta-analyses in ecology and evolution, finding that only 11% use the classic forest plot. Instead, most used a ‘forest-like plot’, showing point estimates (with 95% confidence intervals; CIs) from a series of subgroups or categories in a meta-regression. We propose a modification of the forest-like plot, which we name the ‘orchard plot’. Orchard plots, in addition to showing overall mean effects and CIs from meta-analyses/regressions, also includes 95% prediction intervals (PIs), and the individual effect sizes scaled by their precision. The PI allows the user and reader to see the range in which an effect size from a future study may be expected to fall. The PI, therefore, provides an intuitive interpretation of any heterogeneity in the data. Supplementing the PI, the inclusion of underlying effect sizes also allows the user to see any influential or outlying effect sizes. We showcase the orchard plot with example datasets from ecology and evolution, using the R package, orchard, including several functions for visualizing meta-analytic data using forest-plot derivatives. We consider the orchard plot as a variant on the classic forest plot, cultivated to the needs of meta-analysts in ecology and evolution. Hopefully, the orchard plot will prove fruitful for visualizing large collections of heterogeneous effect sizes regardless of the field of study.


2021 ◽  
pp. 104-109
Author(s):  
Chernysh O.O.

The urgency of the researched problem is connected with the growing role of mass media in modern conditions leads to change of values and transformation of identity of the person. The active growth of the role of the media, their influence on the formation and development of personality leads to the concept of “media socialization” and immutation in the media. The aim of the study is to outline the possibilities of the process of media socialization in the context of immutation in the media. The methods of our research are: analysis of pedagogical, psychological, literature, synthesis, comparison, generalization. The article analyzes the views of domestic and foreign scientists on the problem of immutation in the media and the transformation of the information space. In the context of the mass nature of the immutation of society, the concept of “media socialization” becomes relevant, which is the basis for reducing the negative impact of the media on the individual.The author identifies the lack of a thorough study of the concept of “media socialization” in modern scientific thought. Thus, media socialization is associated with the transformation of traditional means of socialization, and is to assimilate and reproduce the social experience of mankind with the help of new media.The article analyzes the essence of the concepts “media space”, “mass media” and “immutation”. The influence of mass media on the formation and development of the modern personality is described in detail.The study concluded that it is necessary to form a media culture of the individual, to establish safe and effective interaction of young people with the modern media system, the formation of media awareness, media literacy and media competence in accordance with age and individual characteristics for successful media socialization. The role of state bodies in solving the problem of media socialization of the individual was also determined. It is determined that the process of formation of media culture in youth should take place at the level of traditional institutions of socialization of the individual.The author sees the prospect of further research in a detailed analysis and study of the potential of educational institutions as an institution and a means of counteracting the mass nature of the immutation of society.Key words: immutation, media socialization, mass media, media space, information.


2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Kopasker

Existing research has consistently shown that perceptions of the potential economic consequences of Scottish independence are vital to levels of support for constitutional change. This paper attempts to investigate the mechanism by which expectations of the economic consequences of independence are formed. A hypothesised causal micro-level mechanism is tested that relates constitutional preferences to the existing skill investments of the individual. Evidence is presented that larger skill investments are associated with a greater likelihood of perceiving economic threats from independence. Additionally, greater perceived threat results in lower support for independence. The impact of uncertainty on both positive and negative economic expectations is also examined. While uncertainty has little effect on negative expectations, it significantly reduces the likelihood of those with positive expectations supporting independence. Overall, it appears that a general economy-wide threat is most significant, and it is conjectured that this stems a lack of information on macroeconomic governance credentials.


Author(s):  
Gulbarshyn Chepurko ◽  
Valerii Pylypenko

The paper examines and compares how the major sociological theories treat axiological issues. Value-driven topics are analysed in view of their relevance to society in times of crisis, when both societal life and the very structure of society undergo dramatic change. Nowadays, social scientists around the world are also witnessing such a change due to the emergence of alternative schools of sociological thought (non-classical, interpretive, postmodern, etc.) and, subsequently, the necessity to revise the paradigms that have been existed in sociology so far. Since the above-mentioned approaches are often used to address value-related issues, building a solid theoretical framework for these studies takes on considerable significance. Furthermore, the paradigm revision has been prompted by technological advances changing all areas of people’s lives, especially social interactions. The global human community, integral in nature, is being formed, and production of human values now matters more than production of things; hence the “expansion” of value-focused perspectives in contemporary sociology. The authors give special attention to collectivities which are higher-order units of the social system. These units are described as well-organised action systems where each individual performs his/her specific role. Just as the role of an individual is distinct from that of the collectivity (because the individual and the collectivity are different as units), so too a distinction is drawn between the value and the norm — because they represent different levels of social relationships. Values are the main connecting element between the society’s cultural system and the social sphere while norms, for the most part, belong to the social system. Values serve primarily to maintain the pattern according to which the society is functioning at a given time; norms are essential to social integration. Apart from being the means of regulating social processes and relationships, norms embody the “principles” that can be applied beyond a particular social system. The authors underline that it is important for Ukrainian sociology to keep abreast of the latest developments in the field of axiology and make good use of those ideas because this is a prerequisite for its successful integration into the global sociological community.


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