scholarly journals Socio-environmental and measurement factors drive spatial variation in influenza-like illness

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth C. Lee ◽  
Ali Arab ◽  
Sandra Goldlust ◽  
Cécile Viboud ◽  
Shweta Bansal

AbstractThe mechanisms hypothesized to drive spatial heterogeneity in reported influenza activity include: environmental factors, contact patterns, population age structure, and socioeconomic factors linked to healthcare access and quality of life. Harnessing the large volume and high specificity of diagnosis codes in medical claims data for influenza seasons from 2002-2009, we estimate the importance of socio-environmental determinants and measurement-related factors on observed variation in influenza-like illness (ILI) across United States counties. We found that South Atlantic states tended to have higher ILI seasonal intensity, and a combination of transmission, environmental, influenza subtype, socioeconomic and measurement factors explained the variation in seasonal intensity across our study period. Moreover, our models suggest that sentinel surveillance systems should have fixed report locations across years for the most robust inference and prediction, and high volumes of data can offset measurement biases in opportunistic data samples.

Author(s):  
Susannah Paul ◽  
Osaro Mgbere ◽  
Raouf Arafat ◽  
Biru Yang ◽  
Euncie Santos

ObjectiveThe objective was to forecast and validate prediction estimates of influenza activity in Houston, TX using four years of historical influenza-like illness (ILI) from three surveillance data capture mechanisms.BackgroundUsing novel surveillance methods and historical data to estimate future trends of influenza-like illness can lead to earlier detection of influenza activity increases and decreases. Anticipating surges gives public health professionals more time to prepare and increase prevention efforts.Methods Data was obtained from three surveillance systems, Flu Near You, ILINet, and hospital emergency center (EC) visits, with diverse data capture mechanisms. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted to data from each source for week 27 of 2012 through week 26 of 2016 and used to forecast influenza-like activity for the subsequent 10 weeks. Estimates were then compared to actual ILI percentages for the same period.ResultsForecasted estimates had wide confidence intervals that crossed zero. The forecasted trend direction differed by data source, resulting in lack of consensus about future influenza activity. ILINet forecasted estimates and actual percentages had the least differences. ILINet performed best when forecasting influenza activity in Houston, TX.ConclusionThough the three forecasted estimates did not agree on the trend directions, and thus, were considered imprecise predictors of long-term ILI activity based on existing data, pooling predictions and careful interpretations may be helpful for short term intervention efforts. Further work is needed to improve forecast accuracy considering the promise forecasting holds for seasonal influenza prevention and control, and pandemic preparedness.


2003 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 240-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Thomas ◽  
L Kaiser ◽  
W Wunderli ◽  

Surveillance requires time for analysis and for the communication to physicians. In order to reduce this delay, a new surveillance system based on the use of a near patient test (NPT) has been evaluated. The high specificity of NPT together with the rapidity in obtaining the results, make these tests attractive for surveillance of influenza epidemic in community practice. Such surveillance has been used in several countries including Switzerland. Four different seasons - between 1999 and 2003 - of this type of surveillance experienced in Switzerland have been analysed. The heterogeneity in terms of intensity and type of strains detected during these four epidemics seasons allowed an efficient evaluation. The average gain of time with NPT compared to cell culture was nine days. Furthermore, training of participants appeared to be essential to assure the quality of the surveillance system. A statement on the use of NPTs for influenza surveillance has finally been endorsed by EISS members. Included are recommendations that the network should use the NPTs data, which provides additional information to the classical surveillance systems, as an "early warning" system of a change in influenza activity.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
HeeKyung Choi ◽  
Won Suk Choi ◽  
Euna Han

BACKGROUND Influenza is an important public health concern. A national surveillance system that easily and rapidly detects influenza epidemics is lacking. OBJECTIVE We assumed that the rate of influenza-like illness (ILI) related-claims is similar to the current ILI surveillance system. METHODS We used the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service-National Patient Samples (HIRA-NPS), 2014-2018. We defined ILI-related claims as outpatient claims that contain both antipyretic and antitussive agents and calculated the weekly rate of ILI-related claims. We compared ILI-related claims and weekly ILI rates from clinical sentinel surveillance data. RESULTS We observed a strong correlation between the two surveillance systems each season. The absolute thresholds for the four-years were 84.64 and 86.19 cases claims per 1,000 claims for claims data and 12.27 and 16.82 per 1,000 patients for sentinel data (Figure 5). Both the claims and sentinel data surpassed the epidemic thresholds each season. The peak epidemic in the claims data was reached one to two weeks later than in the sentinel data. The epidemic patterns were more similar in the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 seasons than the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 seasons. CONCLUSIONS Based on hospital reports, ILI-related claims rates were similar to the ILI surveillance system. ILI claims data can be loaded to a drug utilization review system in Korea to make an influenza surveillance system.


Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Bandar Alosaimi ◽  
Asif Naeem ◽  
Majed F. Alghoribi ◽  
Lilian Okdah ◽  
Maaweya E. Hamed ◽  
...  

In December 2019, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in China led to a pandemic. Since both Influenza Like Illness (ILI) and COVID-19 case definitions overlap, we re-investigated the ILI cases using PCR for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in 739 nasopharyngeal swabs collected from November 2019 to March 2020. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in 37 samples (5%) collected mostly during February 2020. It was followed by confirmation of evolutionary and spatial relationships using next generation sequencing (NGS). We observed that the overall incidence of ILI cases during 2019–2020 influenza season was considerably higher than previous years and was gradually replaced with SARS-CoV-2, which indicated a silent transmission among ambulatory patients. Sequencing of representative isolates confirmed independent introductions and silent transmission earlier than previously thought. Evolutionary and spatial analyses revealed clustering in the GH clade, characterized by three amino acid substitutions in spike gene (D614G), RdRp (P323L) and NS3 (Q57H). P323L causes conformational change near nsp8 binding site that might affect virus replication and transcription. In conclusion, assessment of the community transmission among patients with mild COVID-19 illness, particularly those without epidemiological link for acquiring the virus, is of utmost importance to guide policy makers to optimize public health interventions. The detection of SARS-CoV-2 in ILI cases shows the importance of ILI surveillance systems and warrants its further strengthening to mitigate the ongoing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The effect of NS3 substitutions on oligomerization or membrane channel function (intra- and extracellular) needs functional validation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 271-276
Author(s):  
Danielle de Moissac ◽  
Jacinthe Savard ◽  
Sébastien Savard ◽  
Florette Giasson ◽  
Lucy-Ann Kubina

Evidence suggests that language barriers present obstacles to healthcare access and quality for Francophone seniors in official language minority communities across Canada. Addressing language barriers and providing continuity is challenging, as French language services (FLSs) rely heavily on bilingual providers and the practice of active offer by all staff. This qualitative research used semi-structured group and individual interviews to explore mechanisms supporting FLS coordination and continuity in two Canadian provinces. Identification of the language variable in health records, virtual healthcare, and FLS directories are conducive to FLS continuity, but financial and resource limitations present major obstacles. Management strategies to facilitate continuity of FLS across health organizations are discussed.


2003 ◽  
Vol 130 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. L. BROTHERTON ◽  
V. C. DELPECH ◽  
G. L. GILBERT ◽  
S. HATZI ◽  
P. D. PARASKEVOPOULOS ◽  
...  

In September 2000 an outbreak of influenza-like illness was reported on a cruise ship sailing between Sydney and Noumea with over 1100 passengers and 400 crew on board. Laboratory testing of passengers and crew indicated that both influenza A and B had been circulating on the ship. The cruise coincided with the peak influenza period in Sydney. Morbidity was high with 40 passengers hospitalized, two of whom died. A questionnaire was sent to passengers 3 weeks after the cruise and 836 of 1119 (75%) responded. A total of 310 passengers (37%) reported suffering from an influenza-like illness (defined as cough, fever, myalgia and weakness) and 528 (63%) had seen a doctor for illness related to the cruise. One-third of passengers reported receipt of influenza vaccination in 2000; however neither their rates of influenza-like illness nor hospitalization were significantly different from those in unvaccinated passengers. A case–control study also found no significant protective effect of influenza vaccination. With the increasing popularity of cruise vacations, such outbreaks are likely to affect increasing numbers of people. Whilst influenza vaccination of passengers and crew may afford some protection, uptake and effectiveness may not be sufficient to prevent outbreaks. Surveillance systems and early intervention measures, such as antiviral therapies, should be considered to detect and control such outbreaks.


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