scholarly journals A Doubly Stochastic Change Point Detection Algorithm for Noisy Biological Signals

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Gold ◽  
Martin G. Frasch ◽  
Christoph Herry ◽  
Bryan S. Richardson ◽  
Xiaogang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Physiological Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fetal Sheep ◽  
Robust Statistical Method ◽  
Point Detection

ABSTRACTExperimentally and clinically collected time series data are often contaminated with significant confounding noise, creating short, noisy time series. This noise, due to natural variability and measurement error, poses a challenge to conventional change point detection methods.We propose a novel and robust statistical method for change point detection for noisy biological time sequences. Our method is a significant improvement over traditional change point detection methods, which only examine a potential anomaly at a single time point. In contrast, our method considers all suspected anomaly points and considers the joint probability distribution of the number of change points and the elapsed time between two consecutive anomalies. We validate our method with three simulated time series, a widely accepted benchmark data set, two geological time series, a data set of ECG recordings, and a physiological data set of heart rate variability measurements of fetal sheep model of human labour, comparing it to three existing methods. Our method demonstrates significantly improved performance over the existing pointwise detection methods.

scholarly journals Change Point Enhanced Anomaly Detection for IoT Time Series Data

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1633
Author(s):  
Elena-Simona Apostol ◽  
Ciprian-Octavian Truică ◽  
Florin Pop ◽  
Christian Esposito
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Anomaly Detection ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Prediction And Forecasting ◽  
Point Detection

Due to the exponential growth of the Internet of Things networks and the massive amount of time series data collected from these networks, it is essential to apply efficient methods for Big Data analysis in order to extract meaningful information and statistics. Anomaly detection is an important part of time series analysis, improving the quality of further analysis, such as prediction and forecasting. Thus, detecting sudden change points with normal behavior and using them to discriminate between abnormal behavior, i.e., outliers, is a crucial step used to minimize the false positive rate and to build accurate machine learning models for prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we propose a rule-based decision system that enhances anomaly detection in multivariate time series using change point detection. Our architecture uses a pipeline that automatically manages to detect real anomalies and remove the false positives introduced by change points. We employ both traditional and deep learning unsupervised algorithms, in total, five anomaly detection and five change point detection algorithms. Additionally, we propose a new confidence metric based on the support for a time series point to be an anomaly and the support for the same point to be a change point. In our experiments, we use a large real-world dataset containing multivariate time series about water consumption collected from smart meters. As an evaluation metric, we use Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The low MAE values show that the algorithms accurately determine anomalies and change points. The experimental results strengthen our assumption that anomaly detection can be improved by determining and removing change points as well as validates the correctness of our proposed rules in real-world scenarios. Furthermore, the proposed rule-based decision support systems enable users to make informed decisions regarding the status of the water distribution network and perform effectively predictive and proactive maintenance.

scholarly journals WATCH: Wasserstein Change Point Detection for High-Dimensional Time Series Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamil Faber ◽  
Roberto Corizzo ◽  
Bartlomiej Sniezynski ◽  
Michael Baron ◽  
Nathalie Japkowicz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Series Data ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Point Detection

DEVELOPING TIME-BASED CLUSTERING NEURAL NETWORKS TO USE CHANGE-POINT DETECTION: APPLICATION TO FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (01) ◽  
pp. 51-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
KYONG JOO OH ◽  
TAE HYUP ROH ◽  
MYUNG SANG MOON
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Point Groups ◽  
Point Detection

This study suggests time-based clustering models integrating change-point detection and neural networks, and applies them to financial time series forecasting. The basic concept of the proposed models is to obtain intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to involve them in the forecasting model. The proposed models consist of two stages. The first stage, the clustering neural network modeling stage, is to detect successive change points in the dataset, and to forecast change-point groups with backpropagation neural networks (BPNs). In this stage, three change-point detection methods are applied and compared. They are: (1) the parametric approach, (2) the nonparametric approach, and (3) the model-based approach. The next stage is to forecast the final output with BPNs. Through the application to financial time series forecasting, we compare the proposed models with a neural network model alone and, in addition, determine which of three change-point detection methods performs better. Furthermore, we evaluate whether the proposed models play a role in clustering to reflect the time. Finally, this study examines the predictability of the integrated neural network models based on change-point detection.

CPMAN: Change Point Detection Approach in Time Series Based on the Prediction of Multi-stage Attention Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (05) ◽  
pp. 2150026
Author(s):  
Haizhou Du ◽  
Ziyi Duan ◽  
Yang Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Attention Networks ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Detection Approach ◽  
Point Detection

Time series change point detection can identify the locations of abrupt points in many dynamic processes. It can help us to find anomaly data in an early stage. At the same time, detecting change points for long, periodic, and multiple input series data has received a lot of attention recently, and is universally applicable in many fields including power, environment, finance, and medicine. However, the performance of classical methods typically scales poorly for such time series. In this paper, we propose CPMAN, a novel prediction-based change point detection approach via multi-stage attention networks. Our model consists of two key modules. First, in the time series prediction module, we employ the multi-stage attention-based networks and integrate the multi-series fusion mechanism. This module can adaptively extract features from the relevant input series and capture the long-term temporal dependencies. Secondly, in the change point detection module, we use the wavelet analysis-based algorithm to detect change points efficiently and identify the change points and outliers. Extensive experiments are conducted on various real-world datasets and synthetic datasets, proving the superiority and effectiveness of CPMAN. Our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by up to 12.1% on the F1 Score.

scholarly journals Change-point detection in time-series data by relative density-ratio estimation

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 72-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song Liu ◽  
Makoto Yamada ◽  
Nigel Collier ◽  
Masashi Sugiyama
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Relative Density ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Density Ratio ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ratio Estimation ◽  
Point Detection
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