scholarly journals Contact, travel, and transmission: The impact of winter holidays on influenza dynamics in the United States

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Ewing ◽  
Elizabeth C. Lee ◽  
Cécile Viboud ◽  
Shweta Bansal
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Influenza Epidemic ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Future Design ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns, and we aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial flu transmission.MethodsWe characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model.ResultsWinter holidays reduced flu transmission and delayed the trajectory of flu season epidemics. The holiday period itself observed a shift in relative risk of disease from children towards adults. Model results indicated that holidays delay epidemic peaks and synchronize incidence across locations, and contact reductions from school closures rather than age-specific mixing and travel produce these observed holiday dynamics.ConclusionsWinter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks due to changes in contact patterns. These findings may improve the future design of influenza intervention strategies, such as the proper timing and duration of school closures, and the spatial and demographic allocation of vaccines.

scholarly journals Contact surveys reveal heterogeneities in age-group contributions to SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Chin ◽  
Dennis M. Feehan ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

SARS-CoV-2 is spread primarily through person-to-person contacts. Quantifying population contact rates is important for understanding the impact of physical distancing policies and for modeling COVID-19, but contact patterns have changed substantially over time due to shifting policies and behaviors. There are surprisingly few empirical estimates of age-structured contact rates in the United States both before and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic that capture these changes. Here, we use data from six waves of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey (BICS), which collected detailed contact data between March 22, 2020 and February 15, 2021 across six metropolitan designated market areas (DMA) in the United States. Contact rates were low across all six DMAs at the start of the pandemic. We find steady increases in the mean and median number of contacts across these localities over time, as well as a greater proportion of respondents reporting a high number of contacts. We also find that young adults between ages 18 and 34 reported more contacts on average compared to other age groups. The 65 and older age group consistently reported low levels of contact throughout the study period. To understand the impact of these changing contact patterns, we simulate COVID-19 dynamics in each DMA using an age-structured mechanistic model. We compare results from models that use BICS contact rate estimates versus commonly used alternative contact rate sources. We find that simulations parameterized with BICS estimates give insight into time-varying changes in relative incidence by age group that are not captured in the absence of these frequently updated estimates. We also find that simulation results based on BICS estimates closely match observed data on the age distribution of cases, and changes in these distributions over time. Together these findings highlight the role of different age groups in driving and sustaining SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the U.S. We also show the utility of repeated contact surveys in revealing heterogeneities in the epidemiology of COVID-19 across localities in the United States.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luzhao Feng ◽  
Ting Zhang ◽  
Qing Wang ◽  
Yiran Xie ◽  
Zhibin Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Influenza Virus Infection ◽  
Northern China ◽  
The United States ◽  
Behavioral Changes ◽  
Influenza Epidemic ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Influenza Activity

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019–2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019–2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011–2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%–87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%–87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%–80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019–2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.

scholarly journals 2742. The Impact of Influenza Vaccination on Antibiotic Use in the United States, 2010–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S965-S966
Author(s):  
Eili Klein ◽  
Emily Schueller ◽  
Katie K Tseng ◽  
Arindam Nandi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Antibiotic Resistance ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Antibiotic Prescribing ◽  
Coverage Rates ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Antibiotic resistance is a cause of morbidity and mortality driven by inappropriate prescribing. In the United States, a third of all outpatient antibiotic prescriptions may be inappropriate. Seasonal influenza rates are significantly associated with antibiotic prescribing rates. The impact of influenza vaccination coverage on antibiotic prescribing is unknown. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of state-level vaccination coverage and antibiotic prescribing rates from 2010 to 2017. We used fixed effects regression to analyze the relationship between cumulative vaccine coverage rates for a season and the per capita number of prescriptions for systemic antibiotics for the corresponding season (January–March) controlling for temperature, poverty, healthcare infrastructure, population structure, and vaccine effectiveness. Results Rates of vaccination coverage ranged from 33% in Nevada to 52% in Rhode Island for the 2016–2017 season, while antibiotic use rates ranged from 25 prescriptions per 1,000 inhabitants in Alaska to 377 prescriptions per 1,000 inhabitants in West Virginia (Figure 1). Vaccination coverage rates were highly correlated with reduced prescribing rates, and controlling for other factors, we found that a one percent increase in the influenza vaccination rate was associated with 1.40 (95% CI: 2.22–0.57, P < 0.01) fewer antibiotic prescriptions per 1,000 inhabitants (Table 1). Increases in the vaccination coverage rate in the pediatric population (aged 0–18) had the strongest effect, followed by the elderly (aged 65+). Conclusion Vaccination can reduce morbidity and mortality from seasonal influenza. Though coverage rates are far below levels necessary to generate herd immunity, we found that higher coverage rates in a state were associated with lower antibiotic prescribing rates. While the effectiveness of the vaccine varies from year to year and the factors that drive antibiotic prescribing rates are multi-factorial, these results suggest that increased vaccination coverage for influenza would have significant benefit in terms of reducing antibiotic overuse and correspondingly antibiotic resistance. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals Quantifying population contact patterns in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis M. Feehan ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
At Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Interpersonal Contact ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Us ◽  
At Risk Populations ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSARS-CoV-2 is transmitted primarily through close, person-to-person interactions. Physical distancing policies can control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by reducing the amount of these interactions in a population. Here, we report results from four waves of contact surveys designed to quantify the impact of these policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. We surveyed 9,743 respondents between March 22 and September 26, 2020. We find that interpersonal contact has been dramatically reduced in the US, with an 82% (95%CI: 80%–83%) reduction in the average number of daily contacts observed during the first wave compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, we find increases in contact rates over the subsequent waves. We also find that certain demographic groups, including people under 45 and males, have significantly higher contact rates than the rest of the population. Tracking these changes can provide rapid assessments of the impact of physical distancing policies and help to identify at-risk populations.

Wrestling with 9/11: Immigrant Perceptions and Perceptions of Immigrants

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Brettell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Asian Indians ◽  
World Trade Center ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fort Worth ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Immigrant Populations ◽  
Trade Center ◽  
The Impact

Soon after 9/11 a research project to study new immigration into the Dallas Fort Worth metropolitan area got under way. In the questionnaire that was administered to 600 immigrants across five different immigrant populations (Asian Indians, Vietnamese, Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Nigerians) between 2003 and 2005 we decided to include a question about the impact of 9/11 on their lives. We asked: “How has the attack on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001 affected your position as an immigrant in the United States?” This article analyzes the responses to this question, looking at similarities and differences across different immigrant populations. It also addresses the broader issue of how 9/11 has affected both immigration policy and attitudes toward the foreign-born in the United States. 

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