scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of Zika virus in island populations: a modelling analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia outbreak

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J. Kucharski ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
Rosalind M. Eggo ◽  
Henri-Pierre Mallet ◽  
W. John Edmunds ◽  
...  

AbstractBetween October 2013 and April 2014, more than 30,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease were estimated to have attended healthcare facilities in French Polynesia. ZIKV has also been reported in Africa and Asia, and in 2015 the virus spread to South America and the Caribbean. Infection with ZIKV has been associated with neurological complications including Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly, which led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2015. To better understand the transmission dynamics of ZIKV, we used a mathematical model to examine the 2013–14 outbreak on the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. Our median estimates for the basic reproduction number ranged from 2.6–4.8, with an estimated 11.5% (95% CI: 7.32–17.9%) of total infections reported. As a result, we estimated that 94% (95% CI: 91–97%) of the total population of the six archipelagos were infected during the outbreak. Based on the demography of French Polynesia, our results imply that if ZIKV infection provides complete protection against future infection, it would take 12–20 years before there are a sufficient number of susceptible individuals for ZIKV to reemerge, which is on the same timescale as the circulation of dengue virus serotypes in the region. Our analysis suggests that ZIKV may exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus in island populations, with transmission characterized by large, sporadic outbreaks with a high proportion of asymptomatic or unreported cases.Author SummarySince the first reported major outbreak of Zika virus disease in Micronesia in 2007, the virus has caused outbreaks throughout the Pacific and South America. Transmitted by the Aedes species of mosquitoes, the virus has been linked to possible neurological complications including Guillain-Barre Syndrome and microcephaly. To improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of Zika virus in island populations, we analysed the 2013–14 outbreak on the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. We found evidence that Zika virus infected the majority of population, but only around 12% of total infections on the archipelagos were reported as cases. If infection with Zika virus generates lifelong immunity, we estimate that it would take at least 15–20 years before there are enough susceptible people for the virus to reemerge. Our results suggest that Zika virus could exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus in the Pacific, producing large but sporadic outbreaks in small island populations.

2016 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Masiêro Araujo ◽  
Maria Lucia Brito Ferreira ◽  
Osvaldo JM Nascimento

ABSTRACT Zika virus (ZIKV) is now considered an emerging flavivirosis, with a first large outbreak registered in the Yap Islands in 2007. In 2013, a new outbreak was reported in the French Polynesia, with associated cases of neurological complications including Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). The incidence of GBS has increased in Brazil since 2015, what is speculated to be secondary to the ZIKV infection outbreak. The gold-standard test for detection of acute ZIKV infection is the polymerase-chain reaction technique, an essay largely unavailable in Brazil. The diagnosis of GBS is feasible even in resource-limited areas using the criteria proposed by the GBS Classification Group, which is based solely on clinical grounds. Further understanding on the relationship of ZIKV with neurological complications is a research urgency.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baz ◽  
Boivin

In 1947, Zika virus (ZIKV), a mosquito-borne flavivirus was identified in Uganda and subsequently spread to Asia and the Pacific regions. In 2015, it was introduced in Brazil causing an important social and sanitary alarm due to its increased virulence and rapid dissemination. Importantly, ZIKV infections have been associated with severe neurological complications such as Guillain–Barré syndrome and microcephaly in fetuses and newborns. Although enormous efforts were made by investigators in the development of effective countermeasures against ZIKV, there is still no approved specific antiviral drug for the treatment of ZIKV infections. Herein, we review several anti ZIKV candidates including drugs targeting both the virus (structural proteins and enzymes) and cellular elements.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-171
Author(s):  
Jose Marchan

After the outbreak in French Polynesia, Zika virus (ZIKV) explosive pandemic occurred in 2015, reports that ZIKV was linked to other diseases, especially neurological complications such as Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS), also burst in almost every continent, thereby turning into an international concern. In South America, the highest incidence occurred in Venezuela with approximately 680 cases of GBS after ZIKV infection. Currently, the main roots of this association remain unknown. In this regard, it is thought that the immune system plays a central role in such association through the host protection or even improving ZIKV establishment and progression. Nonneutralizing auto-antibodies, the complement system, self-reactive T cells, inflammation, the “cytokine storm”, prior exposures to other arboviruses such as dengue virus and chikungunya virus, the age and genetic susceptibility of the patient, and the biology of the vector are the main determinant factors, which perhaps, are involved in the pathological relationship: ZIKV and GBS. On the other hand, more multidisciplinary studies are required to provide means to develop effective therapeutics against this new global health threat that represents an emerging danger that can increase again and trigger other neurological disorders.


2012 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 36-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harmanjit Singh Hira ◽  
Amandeep Kaur ◽  
Anuj Shukla

ABSTRACT Background: Dengue infections may present with neurological complications. Whether these are due to neuromuscular disease or electrolyte imbalance is unclear. Materials and Methods: Eighty-eight patients of dengue fever required hospitalization during epidemic in year 2010. Twelve of them presented with acute neuromuscular weakness. We enrolled them for study. Diagnosis of dengue infection based on clinical profile of patients, positive serum IgM ELISA, NS1 antigen, and sero-typing. Complete hemogram, kidney and liver functions, serum electrolytes, and creatine phosphokinase (CPK) were tested. In addition, two patients underwent nerve conduction velocity (NCV) test and electromyography. Results: Twelve patients were included in the present study. Their age was between 18 and 34 years. Fever, myalgia, and motor weakness of limbs were most common presenting symptoms. Motor weakness developed on 2 nd to 4 th day of illness in 11 of 12 patients. In one patient, it developed on 10 th day of illness. Ten of 12 showed hypokalemia. One was of Guillain-Barré syndrome and other suffered from myositis; they underwent NCV and electromyography. Serum CPK and SGOT raised in 8 out of 12 patients. CPK of patient of myositis was 5098 IU. All of 12 patients had thrombocytopenia. WBC was in normal range. Dengue virus was isolated in three patients, and it was of serotype 1. CSF was normal in all. Within 24 hours, those with hypokalemia recovered by potassium correction. Conclusions: It was concluded that the dengue virus infection led to acute neuromuscular weakness because of hypokalemia, myositis, and Guillain-Barré syndrome. It was suggested to look for presence of hypokalemia in such patients.


Gerontology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 210-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson Savino ◽  
Carolina V. Messias ◽  
Daniella A. Mendes-da-Cruz ◽  
Pamela Passos ◽  
Ana Carolina A.F. Ferreira ◽  
...  

The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in French Polynesia, in 2013, and in Brazil, in 2015, was correlated with neurological complications, which comprised, among others, congenital microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), which includes a group of acute autoimmune neuropathies generally reported after respiratory or gastrointestinal infectious diseases. Despite being relatively rare, the incidence rate of GBS rises with age, which makes GBS more frequent in the elderly, in whom it is also a more severe disease with slower recovery than in younger patients. Different forms of GBS have been described having diagnostic confirmation of a previous infection with the ZIKV virus. Although we do not have enough evidence that elderly people are a particularly susceptible population to developing GBS following ZIKV infection, this is plausible. We should consider this possibility, particularly taking into account that aging subjects are more susceptible to infections. In this context, a deeper understanding of how the immune system in the elderly functions in relation to ZIKV infection is necessary, as well as an understanding of what kind of alterations of the nervous system such an infection triggers in the elderly, beyond GBS. This will be relevant for better therapeutic interventions and for designing vaccine candidates that can be applied in an aging population, particularly those prone to develop ZIKV-induced autoimmunity.


2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Oehler ◽  
L Watrin ◽  
P Larre ◽  
I Leparc-Goffart ◽  
S Lastère ◽  
...  

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Medicine ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 95 (14) ◽  
pp. e3257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Watrin ◽  
Frédéric Ghawché ◽  
Philippe Larre ◽  
Jean-Philippe Neau ◽  
Stéphane Mathis ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 71 (8) ◽  
pp. 451-452
Author(s):  
Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau ◽  
Alexandre Blake ◽  
Sandrine Mons ◽  
Stéphane Lastère ◽  
Claudine Roche ◽  
...  

The Lancet ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 387 (10027) ◽  
pp. 1531-1539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau ◽  
Alexandre Blake ◽  
Sandrine Mons ◽  
Stéphane Lastère ◽  
Claudine Roche ◽  
...  

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