Livestock market data for modeling disease spread among US cattle

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian T. Carroll ◽  
Shweta Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Market Data ◽  
Dynamic Representation ◽  
Cattle Movement ◽  
Livestock Movement ◽  
Livestock Markets ◽  
The Us

AbstractTransportation of livestock carries the risk of spreading foreign animal diseases, leading to costly public and private sector expenditures on disease containment and eradication. Livestock movement tracing systems in Europe, Australia and Japan have allowed epidemiologists to model the risks engendered by transportation of live animals and prepare responses designed to protect the livestock industry. Within the US, data on livestock movement is not sufficient for direct parameterization of models for disease spread, but network models that assimilate limited data provide a path forward in model development to inform preparedness for disease outbreaks in the US. Here, we develop a novel data stream, the information publicly reported by US livestock markets on the origin of cattle consigned at live auctions, and demonstrate the potential for estimating a national-scale network model of cattle movement. By aggregating auction reports generated weekly at markets in several states, including some archived reports spanning several years, we obtain a market-oriented sample of edges from the dynamic cattle transportation network in the US. We first propose a sampling framework that allows inference about shipments originating from operations not explicitly sampled and consigned at non-reporting livestock markets in the US, and we report key predictors that are influential in extrapolating beyond our opportunistic sample. As a demonstration of the utility gained from the data and fitted parameters, we model the critical role of market biosecurity procedures in the context of a spatially homogeneous but temporally dynamic representation of cattle movements following an introduction of a foreign animal disease. We conclude that auction market data fills critical gaps in our ability to model intrastate cattle movement for infectious disease dynamics, particularly with an ability to addresses the capacity of markets to amplify or control a livestock disease outbreak.Author SummaryWe have automated the collection of previously unavailable cattle movement data, allowing us to aggregate details on the origins of cattle sold at live-auction markets in the US. Using our novel dataset, we demonstrate potential to infer a complete dynamic transportation network that would drive disease transmission in models of potential US livestock epidemics.

scholarly journals Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Using a Two Parameter Transmission Model Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ty A Newell
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Effect ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Outdoor Temperature ◽  
Growth Path ◽  
Fall Season ◽  
Us States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Two Parameter

Covid-19 infection case predictions (total cases) are made for August through December 2020 for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, and NC). A two-parameter model based on social distance index (SDI) and disease transmission efficiency (G) parameters is used to characterize SARS-CoV-2 disease spread. Current lack of coherent and coordinated US policy causes the US to follow a linear infection growth path with a limit cycle behavior that modulates the US between accelerating and decaying infection growth on either side of a linear growth path boundary. Four prediction cases are presented: 1) No school re-openings; fall season temperature effect 2) No school re-openings; no fall season temperature effect 3) School re-openings; fall season temperature effect 4) School re-openings; no fall season temperature effect Fall outdoor temperatures, in contrast to the 1918 pandemic, are predicted to be beneficial for dampening SARS-CoV-2 transmission in States as they pass through swing season temperature range of 70F to 50F. Physical re-opening of schools in September are predicted to accelerate infections. States with low current infectious case numbers (eg, NY) are predicted to be minimally impacted while States with high current infectious case numbers (eg, CA and FL) will be significantly impacted by school re-openings. Updated infection predictions will be posted monthly (Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec) with adjustments based on actual trends in SDI and G. Assessments related to outdoor temperature impact, school re-openings, and other public gathering re-openings will be discussed in updated reports.

Military Transportation in State Freight and Defense Community Plans

2021 ◽  
pp. 1087724X2110466
Author(s):  
Chad R. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
State Level ◽  
Federal Agencies ◽  
Department Of Transportation ◽  
State Planning ◽  
Multimodal Transportation ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Defense

The US Department of Defense (DoD) makes extensive use of the US multimodal transportation network to move material for operational support, keep facilities supplied, and move personnel. Federal agencies, especially the US Department of Transportation, work closely with the DoD. States and localities also play a critical role in defense infrastructure. This research examines state freight and defense community plans to identify how the transportation needs of the DoD are being addressed in state planning. The findings are 72% of the 50 state freight plans mention defense transportation, while 34% considered defense transportation needs in-depth. About 6 of 19 identified state defense community plans mention transportation, but only 3 have specific defense transportation goals. Nationally, the DoD and federal agencies work closely together to maintain the nation’s defense transportation network, but at the local and state level closer cooperation on transportation issues should be developed. Military readiness remains high, but efficiencies in the system can be improved.

Building America

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean H. Baker
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Early Republic ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Water System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Early American ◽  
Transatlantic Exchange ◽  
The Us ◽  
Private Homes

Building America: The Life of Benjamin Henry Latrobe is a biography of America’s first professionally trained architect and engineer. Born in 1764, Latrobe was raised in Moravian communities in England and Germany. His parents expected him to follow his father and brother into the ministry, but he rebelled against the church. Moved to London, he studied architecture and engineering. In 1795 he emigrated to the United States and became part of the period’s Transatlantic Exchange. Latrobe soon was famous for his neoclassical architecture, designing important buildings, including the US Capitol and Baltimore Basilica as well as private homes. Carpenters and millwrights who built structures more cheaply and less permanently than Latrobe challenged his efforts to establish architecture as a profession. Rarely during his twenty-five years in the United States was he financially secure, and when he was, he speculated on risky ventures that lost money. He declared bankruptcy in 1817 and moved to New Orleans, the sixth American city that he lived in, hoping to recoup his finances by installing a municipal water system. He died there of yellow fever in 1820. The themes that emerge in this biography are the critical role Latrobe played in the culture of the early republic through his buildings and his genius in neoclassical design. Like the nation’s political founders, Latrobe was committed to creating an exceptional nation, expressed in his case by buildings and internal improvements. Additionally, given the extensive primary sources available for this biography, an examination of his life reveals early American attitudes toward class, family, and religion.

scholarly journals Identification of effective spreaders in contact networks using dynamical influence

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruaridh A. Clark ◽  
Malcolm Macdonald
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Laplacian Matrix ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Eigenvector Centrality ◽  
Contact Networks ◽  
Human Contact ◽  
Spread Dynamics ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
High Degree

AbstractContact networks provide insights on disease spread due to the duration of close proximity interactions. For systems governed by consensus dynamics, network structure is key to optimising the spread of information. For disease spread over contact networks, the structure would be expected to be similarly influential. However, metrics that are essentially agnostic to the network’s structure, such as weighted degree (strength) centrality and its variants, perform near-optimally in selecting effective spreaders. These degree-based metrics outperform eigenvector centrality, despite disease spread over a network being a random walk process. This paper improves eigenvector-based spreader selection by introducing the non-linear relationship between contact time and the probability of disease transmission into the assessment of network dynamics. This approximation of disease spread dynamics is achieved by altering the Laplacian matrix, which in turn highlights why nodes with a high degree are such influential disease spreaders. From this approach, a trichotomy emerges on the definition of an effective spreader where, for susceptible-infected simulations, eigenvector-based selections can either optimise the initial rate of infection, the average rate of infection, or produce the fastest time to full infection of the network. Simulated and real-world human contact networks are examined, with insights also drawn on the effective adaptation of ant colony contact networks to reduce pathogen spread and protect the queen ant.

scholarly journals Livestock movement informs the risk of disease spread in traditional production systems in East Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Divine Ekwem ◽  
Thomas A. Morrison ◽  
Richard Reeve ◽  
Jessica Enright ◽  
Joram Buza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Herd Size ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Transmission Distance ◽  
Risk Of Disease

AbstractIn Africa, livestock are important to local and national economies, but their productivity is constrained by infectious diseases. Comprehensive information on livestock movements and contacts is required to devise appropriate disease control strategies; yet, understanding contact risk in systems where herds mix extensively, and where different pathogens can be transmitted at different spatial and temporal scales, remains a major challenge. We deployed Global Positioning System collars on cattle in 52 herds in a traditional agropastoral system in western Serengeti, Tanzania, to understand fine-scale movements and between-herd contacts, and to identify locations of greatest interaction between herds. We examined contact across spatiotemporal scales relevant to different disease transmission scenarios. Daily cattle movements increased with herd size and rainfall. Generally, contact between herds was greatest away from households, during periods with low rainfall and in locations close to dipping points. We demonstrate how movements and contacts affect the risk of disease spread. For example, transmission risk is relatively sensitive to the survival time of different pathogens in the environment, and less sensitive to transmission distance, at least over the range of the spatiotemporal definitions of contacts that we explored. We identify times and locations of greatest disease transmission potential and that could be targeted through tailored control strategies.

scholarly journals Sheep scab spatial distribution: the roles of transmission pathways

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Joanne Nixon ◽  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Richard Wall
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Infected Sheep ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Psoroptes Ovis ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Sheep Scab ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Ovine psoroptic mange (sheep scab) is a highly pathogenic contagious infection caused by the mite Psoroptes ovis. Following 21 years in which scab was eradicated in the UK, it was inadvertently reintroduced in 1972 and, despite the implementation of a range of control methods, its prevalence increased steadily thereafter. Recent reports of resistance to macrocyclic lactone treatments may further exacerbate control problems. A better understanding of the factors that facilitate its transmission are required to allow improved management of this disease. Transmission of infection occurs within and between contiguous sheep farms via infected sheep-to-sheep or sheep–environment contact and through long-distance movements of infected sheep, such as through markets. Methods A stochastic metapopulation model was used to investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the spatial pattern of outbreaks. A range of model scenarios were considered following the initial infection of a cluster of highly connected contiguous farms. Results Scab spreads between clusters of neighbouring contiguous farms after introduction but when long-distance movements are excluded, infection then self-limits spatially at boundaries where farm connectivity is low. Inclusion of long-distance movements is required to generate the national patterns of disease spread observed. Conclusions Preventing the movement of scab infested sheep through sales and markets is essential for any national management programme. If effective movement control can be implemented, regional control in geographic areas where farm densities are high would allow more focussed cost-effective scab management. Graphical Abstract

Airborne Infection Isolation Rooms – A Review of Experimental Studies

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 584-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Hyttinen ◽  
Anna Rautio ◽  
Pertti Pasanen ◽  
Tiina Reponen ◽  
G. Scott Earnest ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Air Leakage ◽  
Crucial Issue ◽  
Actual Knowledge ◽  
Airborne Infection ◽  
The Us ◽  
Air Cleaners ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Save Energy

Ventilation guidelines for airborne infection isolation rooms (AIIRs) are highly variable in different countries indicating lack of actual knowledge about the guidance needed. However, US guidelines for AIIRs are extensive and have been widely adopted outside the US. AIIR performance has also been evaluated in numerous studies. For a long time, the aim has mainly been to evaluate how well the existing AIIRs meet US guidelines. For historical reasons, mixing-type ventilation has been emphasised and attention has been paid to air exchange rates, although the use of auxiliary devices, such as portable room-air cleaners and ultraviolet germicidal irradiation systems, has also been examined. Recently, the scope of the investigations has been widened. The most crucial issue is to minimise the potential for disease transmission and prevent the escape of contaminated air from the AIIR. Airflow direction inside the AIIR is also important and AIIRs minimise air leakage to save energy. On the other hand, it has been observed that efficient containment can be achieved even by using simple and inexpensive construction by considering pressure differential and air flow patterns. Nevertheless, additional research is needed to assist hospitals with improving their preparedness to cope with the threat of pandemics by building and using effective AIIRs.

scholarly journals Disease transmission by cannibalism: rare event or common occurrence?

2007 ◽  
Vol 274 (1614) ◽  
pp. 1205-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volker H.W Rudolf ◽  
Janis Antonovics
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Transmission Route ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
Common Occurrence ◽  
Endemic Diseases ◽  
Pathogen Dynamics ◽  
Transmission Modes

Cannibalism has been documented as a possible disease transmission route in several species, including humans. However, the dynamics resulting from this type of disease transmission are not well understood. Using a theoretical model, we explore how cannibalism (i.e. killing and consumption of dead conspecifics) and intraspecific necrophagy (i.e. consumption of dead conspecifics) affect host–pathogen dynamics. We show that group cannibalism, i.e. shared consumption of victims, is a necessary condition for disease spread by cannibalism in the absence of alternative transmission modes. Thus, endemic diseases transmitted predominantly by cannibalism are likely to be rare, except in social organisms that share conspecific prey. These results are consistent with a review of the literature showing that diseases transmitted by cannibalism are infrequent in animals, even though both cannibalism and trophic transmission are very common.

scholarly journals Human-induced changes in habitat preference by capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) and their potential effect on zoonotic disease transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thiago C. Dias ◽  
Jared A. Stabach ◽  
Qiongyu Huang ◽  
Marcelo B. Labruna ◽  
Peter Leimgruber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Selection ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Resource Selection ◽  
Spotted Fever ◽  
Space Use ◽  
Zoonotic Disease ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Selection Strategies ◽  
Hydrochoerus Hydrochaeris ◽  
Natural Landscapes

AbstractHuman activities are changing landscape structure and function globally, affecting wildlife space use, and ultimately increasing human-wildlife conflicts and zoonotic disease spread. Capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) is a conflict species that has been implicated in the spread and amplification of the most lethal tick-borne disease in the world, the Brazilian spotted fever (BSF). Even though essential to understand the link between capybaras, ticks and the BSF, many knowledge gaps still exist regarding the effects of human disturbance in capybara space use. Here, we analyzed diurnal and nocturnal habitat selection strategies of capybaras across natural and human-modified landscapes using resource selection functions (RSF). Selection for forested habitats was high across human- modified landscapes, mainly during day- periods. Across natural landscapes, capybaras avoided forests during both day- and night periods. Water was consistently selected across both landscapes, during day- and nighttime. This variable was also the most important in predicting capybara habitat selection across natural landscapes. Capybaras showed slightly higher preferences for areas near grasses/shrubs across natural landscapes, and this variable was the most important in predicting capybara habitat selection across human-modified landscapes. Our results demonstrate human-driven variation in habitat selection strategies by capybaras. This behavioral adjustment across human-modified landscapes may be related to BSF epidemiology.

scholarly journals Livestock Movement Informs the Risk of Disease Spread in Traditional Production Systems in East Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Divine Ekwem ◽  
Thomas A. Morrison ◽  
Richard Reeve ◽  
Jessica Enright ◽  
Joram Buza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Herd Size ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Transmission Distance ◽  
Cattle Movements ◽  
Risk Of Disease

Abstract In Africa, livestock are important to local and national economies, but their productivity is constrained by infectious diseases. Comprehensive information on livestock movements and contacts is required to devise appropriate disease control strategies; yet, understanding contact risk in systems where herds mix extensively, and where different pathogens can be transmitted at different spatial and temporal scales, remains a major challenge. We deployed Global Positioning System collars on cattle in 52 herds in a traditional agropastoral system in western Serengeti, Tanzania, to understand fine-scale movements and between-herd contacts, and to identify locations of greatest interaction between herds. We examined contact across spatiotemporal scales relevant to different disease transmission scenarios. Daily cattle movements increased with herd size and rainfall. Generally, contact was greatest away from households, during periods with low rainfall and in locations close to dipping points. We demonstrate how movements and contacts affect the risk of disease spread. For example, contact rate was relatively sensitive to the survival time of different pathogens in the environment, and less sensitive to transmission distance, at least over the range of values that we explored. We identify times and locations of greatest disease transmission potential and that could be targeted through tailored control strategies.

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