scholarly journals Time-based reward maximization

2014 ◽  
Vol 369 (1637) ◽  
pp. 20120461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bilgehan Çavdaroğlu ◽  
Mustafa Zeki ◽  
Fuat Balcı
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Endogenous Timing ◽  
Subsequent Response ◽  
Timing Uncertainty ◽  
Empirical Performance ◽  
Optimal Target ◽  
Payoff Structure ◽  
Assessment Performance ◽  
Limited Precision

Humans and animals time intervals from seconds to minutes with high accuracy but limited precision. Consequently, time-based decisions are inevitably subjected to our endogenous timing uncertainty, and thus require temporal risk assessment. In this study, we tested temporal risk assessment ability of humans when participants had to withhold each subsequent response for a minimum duration to earn reward and each response reset the trial time. Premature responses were not penalized in Experiment 1 but were penalized in Experiment 2. Participants tried to maximize reward within a fixed session time (over eight sessions) by pressing a key. No instructions were provided regarding the task rules/parameters. We evaluated empirical performance within the framework of optimality that was based on the level of endogenous timing uncertainty and the payoff structure. Participants nearly tracked the optimal target inter-response times (IRTs) that changed as a function of the level of timing uncertainty and maximized the reward rate in both experiments. Acquisition of optimal target IRT was rapid and abrupt without any further improvement or worsening. These results constitute an example of optimal temporal risk assessment performance in a task that required finding the optimal trade-off between the ‘speed’ (timing) and ‘accuracy’ (reward probability) of timed responses for reward maximization.

scholarly journals Optimal time discrimination

2015 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 381-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filiz Çoşkun ◽  
Zeynep Ceyda Sayalı ◽  
Emine Gürbüz ◽  
Fuat Balcı
Keyword(s):  
Response Times ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Endogenous Timing ◽  
Bisection Task ◽  
Temporal Bisection ◽  
Expected Gain ◽  
Timing Uncertainty ◽  
Reward Functions ◽  
Human Participants ◽  
Temporal Bisection Task

In the temporal bisection task, participants categorize experienced stimulus durations as short or long based on their similarity to previously acquired reference durations. Reward maximization in this task requires integrating endogenous timing uncertainty as well as exogenous probabilities of the reference durations into temporal judgements. We tested human participants on the temporal bisection task with different short and long reference duration probabilities (exogenous probability) in two separate test sessions. Incorrect categorizations were not penalized in Experiment 1 but were penalized in Experiment 2, leading to different levels of stringency in the reward functions that participants tried to maximize. We evaluated the judgements within the framework of optimality. Our participants adapted their choice behaviour in a nearly optimal fashion and earned nearly the maximum possible expected gain they could attain given their level of endogenous timing uncertainty and exogenous probabilities in both experiments. These results point to the optimality of human temporal risk assessment in the temporal bisection task. The long categorization response times (RTs) were overall faster than short categorization RTs, and short but not long categorization RTs were modulated by reference duration probability manipulations. These observations suggested an asymmetry between short and long categorizations in the temporal bisection task.

scholarly journals Sequential Temporal Discrimination in Humans and Mice

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filiz Çoşkun ◽  
Dilara Berkay ◽  
Zeynep Ceyda Sayalı ◽  
Fuat Balcı
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Discrimination ◽  
Discrimination Performance ◽  
Endogenous Timing ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Units Of Analysis ◽  
Timing Uncertainty

Previous studies showed that humans and mice can maximize their rewards in two alternative temporal discrimination tasks by incorporating exogenous probabilities and endogenous timing uncertainty into their decisions. The current study investigated if the probabilistic relations modulated the temporal discrimination performance in scenarios with more than two temporal options. In order to address this question, we tested humans (Experiment 1) and mice (Experiment 2) in the dual-switch task, which required subjects to discriminate three time intervals (short, medium, and long durations) in a sequential fashion. The latencies of switches from short to medium and from medium to long option were the main units of analysis. The results revealed that the timing of switches between the first two options (short-to-medium) were sensitive to probabilistic information in both humans and mice. However, mice but not humans adapted the timing of their subsequent switches between the last two options (medium-to-long) based on the probabilistic information associated with these latter options. These results point at a suboptimal tendency in the temporal decisions of humans with multiple options.

Feature Selection Optimization Model for Business Risk Assessment Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 51-64
Author(s):  
Noura Metawa ◽  
◽  
◽  
Mohamed Elhoseny
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Functional Link ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Assessment Performance

Financial risk assessment becomes a hot research topic among financial firms or companies to assess the financial status and thereby avoid future crises. Earlier studies have focused on statistical models for the assessment of financial risks and the recently developed machine learning (ML) models find useful to improve the assessment performance. In this aspect, this study introduces a novel Butterfly Optimization based Feature Selection with Classification Model for Financial Risk Assessment (BOFS-CFRA) technique. The proposed BOFS-CFRA technique involves pre-processing at the primary stage to get rid of unwanted data. In addition, K-means clustering approach is developed to group the financial data into clusters. Then, the BOFS technique is applied to choose the subset of features from the clustered data. Finally, the classification of financial risks takes place by the use of functional link neural network (FLNN). In order to ensure the enhanced performance of the BOFS-CFRA technique, a series of simulations were carried out and the results are inspected under various measures. The simulation outcome portrayed the supremacy of the BOFS-CFRA technique over the other financial risk assessment models in terms of several performance measures.

The Efficacy of a Decision Support System in Enhancing Risk Assessment Performance

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Song ◽  
Siew H. Chan ◽  
Arnold M. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Assessment Performance

scholarly journals Association Between Surrogate Index of Insulin Resistance and Coronary Collateral Circulation in Patients with Coronary Chronic Total Occlusion Lesions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinxing Liu ◽  
Chengping Hu ◽  
Yan Liu ◽  
Yong Zhu ◽  
Hongya Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Insulin Resistance ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Collateral Circulation ◽  
Chronic Total Occlusion ◽  
Baseline Model ◽  
Total Occlusion ◽  
Coronary Collateral Circulation ◽  
Tyg Index ◽  
Coronary Collateral ◽  
Assessment Performance

Abstract Background: Recent studies have substantiated the role of triglyceride glucose index (TyG index) in the prognosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) patients while no relevant studies revealed the association between TyG index and coronary collateral circulation (CCC) in the event of coronary chronic total occlusion (CTO). Our study intends to explore whether or to what extent TyG index is associated with less developed CCC in CAD patients with CTO lesions.Methods: The study enrolled 1093 ACS patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for at least one CTO lesion. Relevant data was collected from Beijing Anzhen Hospital record system. The degree of collaterals was determined according to Rentrop classification system. The correlation between TyG index and coronary collateralization was assessed.Results: Overall, 318 patients were divided into poor CCC group. TyG index was significantly higher in patients with poor CCC (9.3±0.65 vs. 8.8±0.53, P＜0.001). After adjusting for various confounding factors, TyG index remained to be correlated with the occurrence of poor CCC, with an ORs (95% CIs) of 1.59 (1.07-2.36) in T2 group and 5.72 (3.83-8.54) in T3 group compared with the first tertile. Besides, subgroup analysis showed that higher TyG index values remained to be strongly associated with increased risks of poor CCC. Lastly, to compare the risk assessment efficacy for the formation of CCC between TyG index and glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and another insulin resistance (IR) surrogate marker triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was obtained, a significant improvement on the risk assessment performance for the poor CCC emerged when adding TyG index into a baseline model [AUC, 0.629 for baseline model vs. 0.724 for baseline model + TyG index vs. 0.638 for baseline model +HbA1c vs. 0.721 for baseline model +TG/HDL-C, P<0.001; net reclassification improvement (NRI) for TyG index, 0.238, P＜0.001; integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) for TyG index, 0.103, P＜0.001].Conclusions: The TyG index is strongly associated with the occurrence of poor CCC in CAD patients with CTO lesions and its risk assessment performance is better than HbA1c and TG-to-HDL-C ratio.

scholarly journals The Interaction Effect of Personality Factor on Capability and Competence Requirement

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ala'a Zuhair Mansour ◽  
Aidi Ahmi ◽  
Oluwatoyin Muse Johnson Popoola
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Personality Factor ◽  
Fraud Risk ◽  
Knowledge Requirements ◽  
Knowledge Capability ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Assessment Performance ◽  
Economic Developments

The auditing and accounting profession recently faced many challenges following fraudulent practices among the Jordanian public sector. The continuation of such fraudulent activities in the public sector impedes national economic developments and growth. This study's main objective is to have a practical and effective way of reducing the incidences of fraud in the Jordanian public sector. Specifically, this research explores the moderating role of neuroticism on knowledge requirements and fraud risk assessment performance in the Jordanian public sector. Adopting a survey method, the respondents of this study are forensic accountants and auditors in the Jordanian public sector. The research findings will contribute to the existing literature on forensic accountants, auditors, knowledge capability requirement, and neuroticism as a personality factor and fraud risk assessment performance of regulators regarding prevention and detection of fraud in the Jordanian public sector work environment.

Inflammatory pain disrupts the orbitofrontal neuronal activity and risk-assessment performance in a rodent decision-making task

Pain ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 153 (8) ◽  
pp. 1625-1635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Pais-Vieira ◽  
Paulo Aguiar ◽  
Deolinda Lima ◽  
Vasco Galhardo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Neuronal Activity ◽  
Inflammatory Pain ◽  
Assessment Performance

The Effect of Calibration on Caries Risk Assessment Performance by Students and Clinical Faculty

2017 ◽  
Vol 81 (6) ◽  
pp. 667-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas A. Young ◽  
Bernadette Alvear Fa ◽  
Nicholas Rogers ◽  
Peter Rechmann
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Clinical Faculty ◽  
Caries Risk ◽  
Caries Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Performance

Optimizing Youth Risk Assessment Performance: Development of the Modified Positive Achievement Change Tool in Washington State

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (8) ◽  
pp. 1106-1127
Author(s):  
Zachary Hamilton ◽  
Melissa A. Kowalski ◽  
Alex Kigerl ◽  
Douglas Routh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Theoretical Construction ◽  
Performance Development ◽  
Assessment Performance ◽  
Positive Achievement Change Tool ◽  
Racial Ethnic ◽  
Risk Scale

The Positive Achievement Change Tool (PACT) was developed in 1997 using a theoretical construction of items, responses, and weights. While derived from an original tool created for a Washington State probation population, the risk-need assessment is one of the most widely used youth tools utilized today. To advance the model from its theoretical construction, the current study demonstrates tool updates making use of a large sample of Washington State youth ( N = 50,862). Specifically, several mechanisms were utilized to customize the assessment, including (a) item weighting, (b) outcome specificity, and (c) gender responsivity. Based on the updated design, we identify improvements in predictive validity of the continuous risk scale, accuracy of risk-level assignment, and reductions in racial/ethnic disparity. Scheduled to be implemented in the coming year, this article describes the development of the Modified Positive Achievement Change Tool (M-PACT).

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