scholarly journals Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity

2012 ◽  
Vol 367 (1586) ◽  
pp. 236-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Clark ◽  
David M. Bell ◽  
Matthew Kwit ◽  
Anne Stine ◽  
Ben Vierra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Competitive Environments ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Competition For Light ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Individual Scale ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Demographic Responses

Anticipating how biodiversity will respond to climate change is challenged by the fact that climate variables affect individuals in competition with others, but interest lies at the scale of species and landscapes. By omitting the individual scale, models cannot accommodate the processes that determine future biodiversity. We demonstrate how individual-scale inference can be applied to the problem of anticipating vulnerability of species to climate. The approach places climate vulnerability in the context of competition for light and soil moisture. Sensitivities to climate and competition interactions aggregated from the individual tree scale provide estimates of which species are vulnerable to which variables in different habitats. Vulnerability is explored in terms of specific demographic responses (growth, fecundity and survival) and in terms of the synthetic response (the combination of demographic rates), termed climate tracking. These indices quantify risks for individuals in the context of their competitive environments. However, by aggregating in specific ways (over individuals, years, and other input variables), we provide ways to summarize and rank species in terms of their risks from climate change.

scholarly journals Global analysis reveals complex demographic responses of mammals to climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Paniw ◽  
Tamora James ◽  
C. Ruth Archer ◽  
Gesa Römer ◽  
Sam Levin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
Terrestrial Mammals ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Global Understanding ◽  
Demographic Responses

ABSTRACTApproximately 25 % of mammals are threatened globally with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change1. Persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development, reproduction), and hence, on population dynamics2. Thus, to quantify which species and places on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how demographic rates respond to climate is needed3. We synthesise information on such responses in terrestrial mammals, where extensive demographic data are available4. Given the importance of assessing the full spectrum of responses, we focus on studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We identify 106 such studies, corresponding to 86 mammal species. We reveal a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognised as most vulnerable to climate change5,6. Moreover, we show that the effects of climate change on mammals will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others. Assessments of population viability under climate change therefore need to account for multiple demographic responses. We advocate to prioritise coordinated actions to assess mammal demography holistically for effective conservation worldwide.

Données LiDAR aériennes: pertinence de l'interprétation visuelle pour la foresterie

2017 ◽  
Vol 168 (3) ◽  
pp. 127-133
Author(s):  
Matthew Parkan
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
Forest Edge ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
Visual Interpretation ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Interactive 3D ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Airborne Lidar Data ◽  
Stem Position

Airborne LiDAR data: relevance of visual interpretation for forestry Airborne LiDAR surveys are particularly well adapted to map, study and manage large forest extents. Products derived from this technology are increasingly used by managers to establish a general diagnosis of the condition of forests. Less common is the use of these products to conduct detailed analyses on small areas; for example creating detailed reference maps like inventories or timber marking to support field operations. In this context, the use of direct visual interpretation is interesting, because it is much easier to implement than automatic algorithms and allows a quick and reliable identification of zonal (e.g. forest edge, deciduous/persistent ratio), structural (stratification) and point (e.g. tree/stem position and height) features. This article examines three important points which determine the relevance of visual interpretation: acquisition parameters, interactive representation and identification of forest characteristics. It is shown that the use of thematic color maps within interactive 3D point cloud and/or cross-sections makes it possible to establish (for all strata) detailed and accurate maps of a parcel at the individual tree scale.

scholarly journals Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Clark ◽  
Robert Andrus ◽  
Melaine Aubry-Kientz ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Michal Bogdziewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Condition ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The West ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Species Abundances ◽  
Meta Analyses

AbstractIndirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

scholarly journals Crown Structure Explains the Discrepancy in Leaf Phenology Metrics Derived from Ground- and UAV-Based Observations in a Japanese Cool Temperate Deciduous Forest

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 425
Author(s):  
Noviana Budianti ◽  
Hiromi Mizunaga ◽  
Atsuhiro Iio
Keyword(s):  
Deciduous Forest ◽  
Leaf Expansion ◽  
Image Resolution ◽  
Leaf Phenology ◽  
Visual Interpretation ◽  
Temperate Deciduous Forest ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Crown Structure ◽  
Uav Images ◽  
The Individual

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) provide a new platform for monitoring crown-level leaf phenology due to the ability to cover a vast area while offering branch-level image resolution. However, below-crown vegetation, e.g., understory vegetation, subcanopy trees, and the branches of neighboring trees, along with the multi-layered structure of the target crown may significantly reduce the accuracy of UAV-based estimates of crown leaf phenology. To test this hypothesis, we compared UAV-derived crown leaf phenology results against those based on ground observations at the individual tree scale for 19 deciduous broad-leaved species (55 individuals in total) characterized by different crown structures. The mean crown-level green chromatic coordinate derived from UAV images poorly explained inter- and intra-species variations in spring leaf phenology, most probably due to the consistently early leaf emergence in the below-crown vegetation. The start dates for leaf expansion and end dates for leaf falling could be estimated with an accuracy of <1-week when the influence of below-crown vegetation was removed from the UAV images through visual interpretation. However, a large discrepancy between the phenological metrics derived from UAV images and ground observations was still found for the end date of leaf expansion (EOE) and start date of leaf falling (SOF). Bayesian modeling revealed that the discrepancy for EOE increased as crown length and volume increased. The crown structure was not found to contribute to the discrepancy in SOF value. Our study provides evidence that crown structure is a pivotal factor to consider when using UAV photography to reliably estimate crown leaf phenology at the individual tree-scale.

Incorporating predictions into an annual forest inventory

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 1709-1713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Van Deusen
Keyword(s):  
Forest Inventory ◽  
Variance Components ◽  
Growth Modeling ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Regression Estimator ◽  
Forest Types ◽  
Model Estimate ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Individual

Growth modeling of forests at the individual tree and stand levels is a highly refined procedure for many forest types. A method to incorporate predictions from such models into a forest inventory system is developed. Variance components from the actual measurements and from the predicted measurements are used to estimate the variance of the combined predicted value. The only assumption required to justify this method is that the model estimate has a bias that does not change from one time period to the next. The estimation procedure proposed here can also incorporate remotely sensed information via a regression estimator.

scholarly journals Estimation of Genetic and Phenotypic Parameters for Growth Traits in a Clonal Seed Orchard of Pinus kesiya in Malawi

ISRN Forestry ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Missanjo ◽  
Gift Kamanga-Thole ◽  
Vidah Manda
Keyword(s):  
Growth Traits ◽  
Seed Orchard ◽  
Direct Selection ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Clonal Seed Orchard ◽  
Pinus Kesiya ◽  
Individual Tree Model ◽  
The Individual

Genetic and phenotypic parameters for height, diameter at breast height (dbh), and volume were estimated for Pinus kesiya Royle ex Gordon clonal seed orchard in Malawi using an ASReml program, fitting an individual tree model. The data were from 88 clones assessed at 18, 23, 30, 35, and 40 years of age. Heritability estimates for height, dbh, and volume were moderate to high ranging from 0.19 to 0.54, from 0.14 to 0.53, and from 0.20 to 0.59, respectively, suggesting a strong genetic control of the traits at the individual level, among families, and within families. The genetic and phenotypic correlations between the growth traits were significantly high and ranged from 0.69 to 0.97 and from 0.60 to 0.95, respectively. This suggests the possibility of indirect selection in trait with direct selection in another trait. The predicted genetic gains showed that the optimal rotational age of the Pinus kesiya clonal seed orchard is 30 years; therefore, it is recommended to establish a new Pinus kesiya clonal seed orchard. However, selective harvest of clones with high breeding values in the old seed orchard should be considered so that the best parents in the old orchard can continue to contribute until the new orchard is well established.

A review of intervention methods used to reduce flying-fox mortalities in heat stress events

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Matthew Mo ◽  
Mike Roache
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Evaporative Heat Loss ◽  
Temperature And Humidity ◽  
Intervention Trials ◽  
Individual Scale ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Flying Fox

Heat stress events in Australian flying-fox camps have resulted in significant numbers of flying-fox deaths. The frequency and intensity of such events have increased in recent decades, attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Evidence-based interventions are required to address this growing threat. Responders currently use different combinations of a range of intervention methods. We undertook a systematic review of heat stress interventions, which we classified as either ‘camp-scale’ or ‘individual-scale’. Camp-scale interventions included manual and automated misting of roost vegetation, whereas individual-scale interventions included spraying individual animals or removing them for intensive cooling and rehydration procedures. Our study showed that to date, evaluation of the efficacy of heat stress interventions has been largely anecdotal rather than empirical. This highlights the need for dedicated rigorous studies to evaluate the effectiveness of all the intervention methods described here. It will be especially important to understand the relationship between camp temperature and humidity levels and their influence on flying-foxes’ ability to regulate their body temperature, because high relative humidity reduces the ability of mammals to cool themselves using evaporative heat loss. The development of biophysiological measures such as temperature and humidity indices for different flying-fox species would enable meaningful interpretations of intervention trials under controlled conditions.

Affine Versus Non-Affine Fibril Kinematics in Collagen Networks: Theoretical Studies of Network Behavior

2005 ◽  
Vol 128 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Preethi L. Chandran ◽  
Victor H. Barocas
Keyword(s):  
Network Model ◽  
Constitutive Modeling ◽  
Load Transfer ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Affine Model ◽  
Tissue Equivalents ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Macroscopic Deformation ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Open Question

The microstructure of tissues and tissue equivalents (TEs) plays a critical role in determining the mechanical properties thereof. One of the key challenges in constitutive modeling of TEs is incorporating the kinematics at both the macroscopic and the microscopic scale. Models of fibrous microstructure commonly assume fibrils to move homogeneously, that is affine with the macroscopic deformation. While intuitive for situations of fibril-matrix load transfer, the relevance of the affine assumption is less clear when primary load transfer is from fibril to fibril. The microstructure of TEs is a hydrated network of collagen fibrils, making its microstructural kinematics an open question. Numerical simulation of uniaxial extensile behavior in planar TE networks was performed with fibril kinematics dictated by the network model and by the affine model. The average fibril orientation evolved similarly with strain for both models. The individual fibril kinematics, however, were markedly different. There was no correlation between fibril strain and orientation in the network model, and fibril strains were contained by extensive reorientation. As a result, the macroscopic stress given by the network model was roughly threefold lower than the affine model. Also, the network model showed a toe region, where fibril reorientation precluded the development of significant fibril strain. We conclude that network fibril kinematics are not governed by affine principles, an important consideration in the understanding of tissue and TE mechanics, especially when load bearing is primarily by an interconnected fibril network.

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