scholarly journals Drivers of future urban flood risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2168) ◽  
pp. 20190216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily C. O'Donnell ◽  
Colin R. Thorne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
First Century ◽  
Urban Spaces ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Global Challenge ◽  
Science Technology ◽  
Economic Worth ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

Managing urban flood risk is a key global challenge of the twenty-first century. Drivers of future UK flood risk were identified and assessed by the Flood Foresight project in 2002–2004 and 2008; envisaging flood risk during the 2050s and 2080s under a range of scenarios for climate change and socio-economic development. This paper qualitatively reassesses and updates these drivers, using empirical evidence and advances in flood risk science, technology and practice gained since 2008. Of the original drivers, five have strengthened, three have weakened and 14 remain within their 2008 uncertainty bands. Rainfall, as impacted by climate change, is the leading source driver of future urban flood risk. Intra-urban asset deterioration, leading to increases in a range of consequential flood risks, is the primary pathway driver. Social impacts (risk to life and health, and the intangible impacts of flooding on communities) and continued capital investment in buildings and contents (leading to greater losses when newer buildings of higher economic worth are inundated) have strengthened as receptor drivers of urban flood risk. Further, we propose two new drivers: loss of floodable urban spaces and indirect economic impacts, which we suggest may have significant impacts on future urban flood risk. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Urban flood resilience’.

scholarly journals Predicting Future Urban Flood Risk Using Land Change and Hydraulic Modeling in a River Watershed in the Central Province of Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 262
Author(s):  
Huu Duy Nguyen ◽  
Dennis Fox ◽  
Dinh Kha Dang ◽  
Le Tuan Pham ◽  
Quan Vu Viet Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Land Change ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

Flood risk is a significant challenge for sustainable spatial planning, particularly concerning climate change and urbanization. Phrasing suitable land planning strategies requires assessing future flood risk and predicting the impact of urban sprawl. This study aims to develop an innovative approach combining land use change and hydraulic models to explore future urban flood risk, aiming to reduce it under different vulnerability and exposure scenarios. SPOT-3 and Sentinel-2 images were processed and classified to create land cover maps for 1995 and 2019, and these were used to predict the 2040 land cover using the Land Change Modeler Module of Terrset. Flood risk was computed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability using hydrodynamic modeling and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. We have compared flood risk in 1995, 2019, and 2040. Although flood risk increases with urbanization, population density, and the number of hospitals in the flood plain, especially in the coastal region, the area exposed to high and very high risks decreases due to a reduction in poverty rate. This study can provide a theoretical framework supporting climate change related to risk assessment in other metropolitan regions. Methodologically, it underlines the importance of using satellite imagery and the continuity of data in the planning-related decision-making process.

scholarly journals Urban Flood Risk Reduction by Increasing Green Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 2241-2246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Zimmermann ◽  
Laura Bracalenti ◽  
Rubén Piacentini ◽  
Luis Inostroza
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Green Areas ◽  
Flood Risk Reduction ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

scholarly journals Climate change-induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.N. Pedersen ◽  
P.S. Mikkelsen ◽  
K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

scholarly journals Special Issue on Actions Toward Futuristic Urban Flood Risk Research and Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-309
Author(s):  
Yoshihiro Shibuo ◽  
Kenji Kawaike ◽  
Hiroaki Furumai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

As rainfalls exceeding the designed level have increased, so has damage associated with pluvial flooding. Typhoon Hagibis, which swept Japan in 2019, left 140 municipalities in 15 prefectures scarred from flooding. The sewage networks damaged by the typhoon affected civic life by paralyzing urban functions, raising concerns in urban flood risk and management. Increases in heavy rainfall events associated with global climate change are expected to increase damage from pluvial flooding, thereby necessitating reviews of current urban flood risk management for the purpose of making further improvements against future threats. As we enter an era of frequent urban flooding, it is vitally important that we prepare for urban flood risk management by sharing scientific and technological knowledge among academics, private companies, and administrators. In this context, the current issue is a compilation of contemporary research studies in academia, technological advances in private companies, and practical applications in public administrations in Japan. The works include: the application of urban flood modeling in safe evacuation strategies, the assessment of economic loss, and the impact of climate change; state of the art technologies for urban flood management with the Internet of Things (IoT) and Internet Communication Technology (ICT), Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), and the next generation of weather radars; and best practices for flood countermeasures, based on knowledge and experience from historical flooding and applied in prefectural governments and local municipalities. We are grateful to all the authors and reviewers who contributed to this special issue, and we hope that it may internationally enhance knowledge-exchange in preparation for growing urban flood risks.

scholarly journals Increase in urban flood risk resulting from climate change – The role of storm temporal patterns

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suresh Hettiarachchi ◽  
Conrad Wasko ◽  
Ashish Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

Abstract. Warming temperatures are causing extreme rainfall to intensify resulting in increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The study presented in this manuscript uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk: (1) How does climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? The updated NOAA Atlas 14 intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns, widely used in design and planning modelling in the USA, form the basis of the assessment reported here. Current literature shows that a rise in temperature will result in intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation measures. We use the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081–2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The modelling analysis for a 22 km2 developed watershed show that temporal patterns cause substantial variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude between 1 to 35 % with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal pattern and the storm volume increasing flood risk by between 10 to 170 % across the locations that were referenced for a 50 year return period storm. The variability in catchment response to temporal patterns show that regional storage facilities are sensitive to rainfall patterns that are loaded at the latter part of the storm duration while the short duration extremely intense storms will cause extensive flooding at all locations. This study shows that changes in temporal patterns will have a significant impact on urban/suburban catchment response and need to be carefully considered and adjusted to account for climate change when used for design and planning future stormwater systems.

scholarly journals Urban Resilience of Shenzhen City under Climate Change

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 537
Author(s):  
Weiwei Shao ◽  
Xin Su ◽  
Jie Lu ◽  
Jiahong Liu ◽  
Zhiyong Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Shenzhen City ◽  
Taylor Diagram ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urban Flood Risk

The Chinese government attaches great importance to climate change adaptation and has issued relevant strategies and policies. Overall, China’s action to adapt to climate change remains in its infancy, and relevant research needs to be further deepened. In this paper, we study the future adaptive countermeasures of Shenzhen city in the Pearl River Delta in terms of climate change, especially urban flood risk resilience. Based on the background investigation of urban flood risk in Shenzhen, this paper calculates the annual precipitation frequency of Shenzhen from 1953 to 2020, and uses the extreme precipitation index as a quantitative indicator to analyze the changes in historical precipitation and the impact of major flood disasters in Shenzhen city in previous decades. Based on the six kinds of model data of the scenario Model Inter-comparison Project (MIP) in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6), uses the Taylor diagram and MR comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the ability of different climate models to simulate extreme precipitation in Shenzhen, and the selected models are aggregated and averaged to predict the climate change trend of Shenzhen from 2020 to 2100. The prediction results show that Shenzhen will face more severe threats from rainstorms and floods in the future. Therefore, this paper proposes a resilience strategy for the city to cope with the threat of flood in the future, including constructing a smart water management system and promoting the development of a sponge city. Moreover, to a certain extent, it is necessary to realize risk transfer by promoting a flood insurance system.

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