scholarly journals Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Pretis ◽  
Moritz Schwarz ◽  
Kevin Tang ◽  
Karsten Haustein ◽  
Myles R. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Income ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Warming World

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

scholarly journals ECONOMIC GROWTH, URBANISATION AND CARBON EMISSIONS: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED ASEAN COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 9-16
Author(s):  
Seng-Huat Tan ◽  
Meenchee Hong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Environmental Governance ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Pollution Problem ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Government

Climate change is considered as the most severe and urgent environmental issue in this present era. There is a clear consensus that the climate change problem is much related to the rising level of carbon emissions in the atmosphere. The link between economic growth, urbanization and carbon emissions was examined extensively in the literature. Fast-paced economic growth will advance urbanization in a country and result in higher energy consumption to meet various needs in an urban economy. This conditions will trigger more carbon emissions and generate more pollution problem. This paper aims to discuss and compare the growth pattern of economic growth, urbanization and carbon emissions between five selected ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam for the period 1990-2018. All these five countries have recorded at least 4% economic growth rate in the year 2018. In the same period, Indonesia has the largest in term of total value added in manufacturing. Similarly, Vietnam has the largest growth of value-added in the same industry. Among all, Indonesia has the largest urban population whilst Malaysia has the highest rate in urbanization and carbon emissions per capita. The upward trend of urban population and carbon emissions per capita in these countries exhibit certain pressures and challenges to the countries’ environmental quality. Therefore, the government in these countries should pay attention to environmental governance to achieve sustainable urbanization while prioritizing economic growth

scholarly journals Building equity in: strategies for integrating equity into modelling for a 1.5°C world

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klinsky Sonja ◽  
Winkler Harald
Keyword(s):  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Policy Action ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Political Debates ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Loss And Damage ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Current Modelling

Emission pathways consistent with limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C raise pressing questions from an equity perspective. These pathways would limit impacts and benefit vulnerable communities but also present trade-offs that could increase inequality. Meanwhile, rapid mitigation could exacerbate political debates in which equity has played a central role. In this paper, we first develop a set of elements we suggest are essential for evaluating the equity implications of policy actions consistent with 1.5°C. These elements include (i) assess climate impacts, adaptation, loss and damage; (ii) be sensitive to context; (iii) compare costs of mitigation and adaptation policy action; (iv) incorporate human development and poverty; (v) integrate inequality dynamics; and (vi) be clear about normative assumptions and responsive to users. We then assess the ability of current modelling practices to address each element, focusing on global integrated assessment models augmented by national modelling and scenarios. We find current practices face serious limitations across all six dimensions although the severity of these varies. Finally, based on our assessment we identify strategies that may be best suited for enabling us to generate insights into each of the six elements in the context of assessing pathways for a 1.5°C world. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

The Pattern of Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
pp. 66-98
Author(s):  
Tirthankar Roy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Economic Change ◽  
National Income ◽  
The Other ◽  
Colonial India ◽  
Definite Pattern ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The One

Economic change in colonial India followed a definite pattern. Chapter 3 describes the pattern with statistical data. The chapter shows that the average rate of growth of national income per capita was low, but that the average picture is misleading since the experiences of agriculture on the one hand and industry and services on the other differed greatly. The presence of dissimilar trajectories complicates the task of explaining the pattern of change. The chapter suggests that instead of asking if colonialism and globalization made India rich or poor, we should be asking why colonialism and globalization made some livelihoods rich and left some others poor. Chapter 3 surveys the statistical data that enables asking question like this one.

scholarly journals Can ‘loss and damage’ carry the load?

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20170070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert R. M. Verchick
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
Global Consensus ◽  
Loss And Damage ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Warming World

Even assuming a heroic rush towards carbon reduction and adaptation, some regions of the world will be hammered hard by climate impacts. Thus, a global consensus now sees the need for a supplemental plan to deal with the kind of harms that cannot be avoided—what Parties call ‘loss and damage’. For a loss-and-damage plan to work, it must be capable of carrying the load, the load being whatever minimal standards that morality and political consensus require. But if residual risk climbs too high, it will fall short of even the most basic expectations. The Paris Agreement calls for holding the rise in global average temperature to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’, while working to limit the increase to 1.5°C. How much difference is in that half-degree? From the point of view of residual risk, quite a lot. According to a 2016 study published by the European Geosciences Union, a jump from 1.5°C to 2°C could produce outsize impacts, particularly in tropical latitudes. That difference could mark the line between a plan that is politically and morally defensible and one that is not. At the very least, the difference is enough to inform the design and expectations of any future plan. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

scholarly journals ECONOMIC GROWTH, URBANISATION AND CARBON EMISSIONS: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED ASEAN COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 9-16
Author(s):  
Huat Tan Seng ◽  
Hong Meenchee ◽  
Tze-Haw Chan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Environmental Governance ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Pollution Problem ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Government

Climate change is considered as the most severe and urgent environmental issue in this present era. There is a clear consensus that the climate change problem is much related to the rising level of carbon emissions in the atmosphere. The link between economic growth, urbanization and carbon emissions was examined extensively in the literature. Fas-paced economic growth will advance urbanization in a country and result in higher energy consumption to meet various needs in an urban economy. This conditions will trigger more carbon emissions and generate more pollution problem. This paper aims to discuss and compare the growth pattern of economic growth, urbanization and carbon emissions between five selected ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam for the period 1990-2018. All these five countries have recorded at least 4% economic growth rate in the year 2018. In the same period, Indonesia has the largest in term of total value added in manufacturing. Similarly, Vietnam has the largest growth of value-added in the same industry. Among all, Indonesia has the largest urban population whilst Malaysia has the highest rate in urbanization and carbon emissions per capita. The upward trend of urban population and carbon emissions per capita in these countries exhibit certain pressures and challenges to the countries’ environmental quality. Therefore, the government in these countries should pay attention to environmental governance to achieve sustainable urbanization while prioritizing economic growth.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Economic Growth: The Role of Environmental Policy Stringency

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2273
Author(s):  
Enrico Maria de Angelis ◽  
Marina Di Giacomo ◽  
Davide Vannoni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Shaped Pattern

The paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in the context of the Kuznets curve, which foresees that growth, while initially causing negative externalities for the environment, eventually can be seen also as the solution to environmental degradation. The novelty of the paper is to analyze the role of environmental policies, and in particular the use of market-based and non-market instruments to challenge the pollution plague and mitigate climate change. The results of fixed effects estimates on a sample of 32 countries observed for the period 1992–2012 show the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and per-capita CO2 emissions for the quadratic specification, as well as of an N-shaped pattern for the cubic specification. Most importantly, the stringency indexes, i.e., the proxies used to account for environmental regulation, exhibit negative and strongly significant coefficients, suggesting that the policies are effective in reducing environmental damages associated with economic growth.

International support for environmental protection

2004 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 757-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
DEBRA K. ISRAEL
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
National Income ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Per Capita

This paper uses household-level survey data from a 1989 Harris poll conducted in 12 developing and three developed countries to examine the empirical relationship between the support for paying higher taxes for environmental protection and per capita national income. Results from ordered probit estimation suggest that as per capita real gross domestic product rises, controlling for other household characteristics, the strength of the support for somewhat higher taxes for environmental protection is falling for low-income countries and rising for high-income countries. The evidence also suggests that environmental protection may be important to people in developing countries during the process of economic growth. The high level of support for environmental protection found among the lower-income African countries included in this study is one result that warrants additional research. Higher economic growth rates are also found to be associated with greater support for environmental protection.

scholarly journals Growth at Risk From Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (054) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Michael T. Kiley ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Average Level ◽  
Quantile Regressions ◽  
Effects Of Temperature

How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more likely using quantile regressions linking growth to temperature. The effects of temperature on downside risks to economic growth are large and robust across specifications. These results suggest the growth at risk from climate change is large—climate change may make economic contractions more likely and severe and thereby significantly impact economic and financial stability and welfare.

Book Reviews

2011 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1303-1305
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
External Debt ◽  
National Income ◽  
Technology Entrepreneurship ◽  
Poverty And Inequality ◽  
Wealth Of Nations

Marti Mestieri of Toulouse School of Economics reviews “Understanding Growth and Poverty: Theory, Policy, and Empirics” by Raj Nallari and Breda Griffith. The EconLit abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Presents an introduction to the theories and policies that affect economic growth and poverty. Discusses poverty and how we measure it; national income and how we measure it; growth, poverty, and inequality--an overview; government and the economy--a focus on fiscal policy; monetary policy, inflation, and exchange rates; financial development; development assistance; external debt; trade policy; institutions and growth; education; health; labor markets; land and agriculture; technology, entrepreneurship, and productivity; urbanization and growth; corruption and poverty; regulation and economic growth; shocks, volatility, and growth; the politics of growth and poverty; and climate change and the wealth of nations. Glossary; index.”

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on volcanic processes: current understanding and future challenges

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Aubry ◽  
Jamie Farquharson ◽  
Colin Rowell ◽  
Sebastian Watt ◽  
Virginie Pinel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Climate Conditions

The impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate are increasingly well understood, but the mirror question of how climate changes affect volcanic systems and processes, which we term “climate-volcano impacts”, remains understudied. Accelerating research on this topic is critical in view of rapid climate change driven by anthropogenic activities. Over the last two decades, we have improved our understanding of how mass distribution on the Earth’s surface, in particular changes in ice and water distribution linked to glacial cycles, affects mantle melting, crustal magmatic processing and eruption rates. New hypotheses on the impacts of climate change on eruption processes have also emerged, including how eruption style and volcanic plume rise are affected by changing surface and atmospheric conditions, and how volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle, radiative forcing and climate impacts are modulated by background climate conditions. Future improvements in past climate reconstructions and current climate observations, volcanic eruption records and volcano monitoring, and numerical models will contribute to boost research on climate-volcano impacts. Important mechanisms remain to be explored, such as how changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation will affect the volcanic ash lifecycle. Fostering a holistic and interdisciplinary approach to climate-volcano impacts is critical to gain a full picture of how ongoing climate changes may affect the environmental and societal impacts of volcanic activity.

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