scholarly journals Gaussian processes for time-series modelling

Author(s):  
S. Roberts ◽  
M. Osborne ◽  
M. Ebden ◽  
S. Reece ◽  
N. Gibson ◽  
...  

In this paper, we offer a gentle introduction to Gaussian processes for time-series data analysis. The conceptual framework of Bayesian modelling for time-series data is discussed and the foundations of Bayesian non-parametric modelling presented for Gaussian processes . We discuss how domain knowledge influences design of the Gaussian process models and provide case examples to highlight the approaches.

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Miguel Ángel Ruiz Reina

In this research, a new uncertainty method has been developed and applied to forecasting the hotel accommodation market. The simulation and training of Time Series data are from January 2001 to December 2018 in the Spanish case. The Log-log BeTSUF method estimated by GMM-HAC-Newey-West is considered as a contribution for measuring uncertainty vs. other prognostic models in the literature. The results of our model present better indicators of the RMSE and Ratio Theil’s for the predictive evaluation period of twelve months. Furthermore, the straightforward interpretation of the model and the high descriptive capacity of the model allow economic agents to make efficient decisions.


2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-88
Author(s):  
Nandita Dasgupta

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of international trade and investment related macro economic variables, namely, exports, imports and FDI inflows on the outflows of FDI from India over 1970 through 2005. Using time series data analysis, the empirical part of the paper finds unidirectional Granger Causality from export and import to FDI outflows but no such causality exists from FDI inflows to the corresponding outflows from India. Results confirm the assumption that lagged imports and exports are a driving force of ing front.


IEEE Access ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 223078-223088
Author(s):  
Haolong Zhang ◽  
Haoye Lu ◽  
Amiya Nayak

2019 ◽  
pp. 019251211988473
Author(s):  
Seung-Whan Choi ◽  
Henry Noll

In this study, we argue that ethnic inclusiveness is an important democratic norm that fosters interstate peace. When two states are socialized into the notion of ethnic tolerance, they acquire the ability to reach cooperative arrangements in time of crisis. Based on cross-national time-series data analysis covering the period 1950–2001, we illustrate how two states that are inclusive of their politically relevant ethnic groups are less likely to experience interstate disputes than states that remain exclusive. This finding was robust, regardless of sample size, intensity of the dispute, model specification, or estimation method. Therefore, we believe in the existence of ethnic peace: ethnic inclusiveness represents an unambiguous force for democratic peace.


2013 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 1464-1479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pramod K. Vemulapalli ◽  
Vishal Monga ◽  
Sean N. Brennan

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