The Met Office Hadley Centre climate modelling capability: the competing requirements for improved resolution, complexity and dealing with uncertainty

2007 ◽  
Vol 365 (1860) ◽  
pp. 2635-2657 ◽  
Author(s):  
V Pope ◽  
S Brown ◽  
R Clark ◽  
M Collins ◽  
W Collins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Global Environment ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Hadley Centre ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Complex Computer

Predictions of future climate change require complex computer models of the climate system to represent the full range of processes and interactions that influence climate. The Met Office Hadley Centre uses ‘families’ of models as part of the Met Office Unified Model Framework to address different classes of problems. The HadGEM family is a suite of state-of-the-art global environment models that are used to reduce uncertainty and represent and predict complex feedbacks. The HadCM3 family is a suite of well established but cheaper models that are used for multiple simulations, for example, to quantify uncertainty or to test the impact of multiple emissions scenarios.

scholarly journals Combining Information from Multiple Data Sources to Assess Population Health

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trivellore Raghunathan ◽  
Kaushik Ghosh ◽  
Allison Rosen ◽  
Paul Imbriano ◽  
Susan Stewart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Health ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Health Conditions ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Elderly Age ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Dummy Variables ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Information about an extensive set of health conditions on a well-defined sample of subjects is essential for assessing population health, gauging the impact of various policies, modeling costs, and studying health disparities. Unfortunately, there is no single data source that provides accurate information about health conditions. We combine information from several administrative and survey data sets to obtain model-based dummy variables for 107 health conditions (diseases, preventive measures, and screening for diseases) for elderly (age 65 and older) subjects in the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) over the fourteen-year period, 1999–2012. The MCBS has prevalence of diseases assessed based on Medicare claims and provides detailed information on all health conditions but is prone to underestimation bias. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), on the other hand, collects self-reports and physical/laboratory measures only for a subset of the 107 health conditions. Neither source provides complete information, but we use them together to derive model-based corrected dummy variables in MCBS for the full range of existing health conditions using a missing data and measurement error model framework. We create multiply imputed dummy variables and use them to construct the prevalence rate and trend estimates. The broader goal, however, is to use these corrected or modeled dummy variables for a multitude of policy analysis, cost modeling, and analysis of other relationships either using them as predictors or as outcome variables.

Balanced subsampling of future regional climate ensembles of opportunity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús Fernández ◽  
María Dolores Frías
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
National Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
The Impact

<p>International model intercomparison initiatives, such as CORDEX or CMIP5, along with several relatively recent projects at international and national level, provide a wealth of model simulations of future regional climate. In a recent work, Fernandez et al (2019) collected 196 different future climate change projections over Spain, considering data from ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX, along with their driving global climate projections from CMIP3 and CMIP5. This ensemble mixed different multi-model initiatives in an ensemble of opportunity, in the sense that it does not respond to any scientific design beyond the exploration of multi-model uncertainty. This ensemble of opportunity is not only the result of the mixture of different initiatives, but also responds to the lack of a balanced experimental design within most of the initiatives. Many of the initiatives -especially those unfunded, such as CORDEX- are carried out on a voluntary basis, with no strong constraint in the global climate models (GCMs) used as boundary conditions or in the number of contributing members per regional climate model (RCM).</p><p>Fernandez et al (2019) found in this ensemble a strong influence of the driving GCM on the regional climate change signal, along with favored GCMs, selected by many regional climate modelling groups to the detriment of GCMs publishing their output later or not at all. In this work, we quantitatively assess the impact of unbalanced GCM-RCM ensembles. For this purpose, we subsampled the ensemble of opportunity to obtain balanced sets of members according to different “what-if” situations: What if all RCMs had contributed a single member to the ensemble? What if each GCM had been dynamically downscaled only once? What if a given GCM/RCM had not contributed to the ensemble? For each hypothesis, there are a number of alternative sub-ensembles, which are used to evaluate uncertainty.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgement:</strong></p><p>This work is partially funded by the Spanish government through MINECO/FEDER co-funded projects INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R) and MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R). </p><p><strong>References:</strong></p><p>Fernández, J., et al. (2019) Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects. Clim Dyn 52:1139. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4181-8</p>

Impact of Chatbot in Transforming the Face of Retailing- An Empirical Model of Antecedents and Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kumari Anshu ◽  
Loveleen Gaur ◽  
Arun Solanki
Keyword(s):  
Research Work ◽  
Shopping Behavior ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Shopping Experience ◽  
The Face ◽  
Strongly Agree ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
Work Done ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Self Administered Questionnaire

Chatbot has emerged as a significant resolution to the swiftly growing customer caredemands in recent times. Chatbot has emerged as one of the biggest technological disruption. Simply speaking, it is a software agent facilitating interaction between computers and humans in natural language. So basically, it is a simulated, intellectual dialogue agent functional in a range of consumer engagement circumstances. It is the easiest and simplest means enable interaction between the retailers and the customers. </p><p> • Purpose- Most of the research work done in this field is concerned with their technical aspects. The recent research on chatbot pay little attention to the impact it is creating on users’ experience. Through this work, author is making an effort to know the customer-oriented impact that the chatbot bear on the shoppers. The purpose of this study is to develop and empirically test a framework that identify the customer oriented attributes of chatbot and impact of these attributes on customers. </p><p> • Objectives- The study intends to bridge the gap between concepts and actual attributes and applications on the subject of Chatbot. The following research objectives can address the various aspects of Chatbot affecting the different characteristics of consumers shopping behaviors: a) Identify the various attributes of chatbot that bears an impression on consumer shopping behavior. b) Evaluate the impact of chatbot on consumer shopping behavior that leads to the development of chatbot usage and adoption among the customer. </p><p> • Design/Methodology/Approach – For the purpose of analysis, author has administered Factor analysis and Multiple regression using SPSS version 23 for identification of various attributes of Chatbot and knowing their impact on shoppers. A self-administered questionnaire from the review of literature is developed. Industry experts in the field of retailing and academician evaluate the questionnaire. Primary information from the respondents is gathered using this questionnaire. The questionnaire comprises of Likert scale on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 stands for strongly disagree and 5 stands for strongly agree. Data is collected from 126 respondents, out of which 111 respondents were finally considered for study and analysis purpose. </p><p> • Findings – The empirical results show that the study identifies various attributes of chatbot like Trust, Usefulness, Satisfaction, Readiness to Use and Accessibility. It is also found that chatbot is really influencing the customers in providing them with shopping experience, which can be very helpful to the businesses for increasing the sales and creating repurchase intention among the customers. </p><p> • Originality/value – The recent research on chatbot pay little attention to the impact it is creating on customers who are actually interacting with it on regular basis. The research paper extends information for understanding and appreciating the customer oriented attributes of artificially intelligent Chatbot. In this regard, the author has developed a model framework and proposed the attributes identified. Through the work, author is also making an effort to test empirically the impact of the identified attributes on the shoppers.

Unfunded Public Employee Health Care Benefits and GASB No. 45

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 245-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth K. Keating ◽  
Eric S. Berman
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Employment Benefits ◽  
Care Plans ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Government Accounting ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) recently released Statement No. 45, Accounting and Financial Reporting by Employers for Post-Employment Benefits Other Than Pensions and its companion Statement No. 43 for pooled stand-alone health care plans, which will profoundly affect American governmental finance. The goal of this article is to encourage governments to consider carefully a full range of options in funding and restructuring other post-employment benefits (OPEB). This article will review Statement No. 45's potential impact on governments and review existing disclosures in financial reports as well as bond offering statements. The article will discuss the statement's impact on budgets and governmental operations, including collective bargaining. Funding options under Statement No. 45 will be detailed, including the advantages and disadvantages of irrevocable trusts and OPEB bonds. The article will also discuss the impact of Medicare Part D subsidies received by governments, as well as the bond rating implications of policy decisions surrounding OPEB. As the largest government entities are just now implementing GASB Statement No. 45, estimates of the magnitude of unfunded OPEB liabilities are limited as are the strategies likely to be adopted to cover these obligations. This article offers a summary of the unfunded OPEB liabilities reported by states and major cities and suggests some measures for assessing the ability of these entities to address these costs.

scholarly journals Comparison of Industrial Quenching Oils

Metals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 250
Author(s):  
Jiří Hájek ◽  
Zaneta Dlouha ◽  
Vojtěch Průcha
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Cooling Capacity ◽  
Steel Grade ◽  
Cooling Curves ◽  
Cooling Process ◽  
Industrial Practice ◽  
Product Size ◽  
Cct Curve ◽  
Hardening Power ◽  
The Impact

This article is a response to the state of the art in monitoring the cooling capacity of quenching oils in industrial practice. Very often, a hardening shop requires a report with data on the cooling process for a particular quenching oil. However, the interpretation of the data can be rather difficult. The main goal of our work was to compare various criteria used for evaluating quenching oils. Those of which prove essential for operation in tempering plants would then be introduced into practice. Furthermore, the article describes monitoring the changes in the properties of a quenching oil used in a hardening shop, the effects of quenching oil temperature on its cooling capacity and the impact of the water content on certain cooling parameters of selected oils. Cooling curves were measured (including cooling rates and the time to reach relevant temperatures) according to ISO 9950. The hardening power of the oil and the area below the cooling rate curve as a function of temperature (amount of heat removed in the nose region of the Continuous cooling transformation - CCT curve) were calculated. V-values based on the work of Tamura, reflecting the steel type and its CCT curve, were calculated as well. All the data were compared against the hardness and microstructure on a section through a cylinder made of EN C35 steel cooled in the particular oil. Based on the results, criteria are recommended for assessing the suitability of a quenching oil for a specific steel grade and product size. The quenching oils used in the experiment were Houghto Quench C120, Paramo TK 22, Paramo TK 46, CS Noro MO 46 and Durixol W72.

scholarly journals Smoothing additive manufactured parts using ns-pulsed laser radiation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Kuisat ◽  
Fernando Lasagni ◽  
Andrés Fabián Lasagni
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Mechanical Performance ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Pulsed Laser ◽  
Industrial Applications ◽  
Laser Source ◽  
Pulsed Laser Radiation ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIt is well known that the surface topography of a part can affect its mechanical performance, which is typical in additive manufacturing. In this context, we report about the surface modification of additive manufactured components made of Titanium 64 (Ti64) and Scalmalloy®, using a pulsed laser, with the aim of reducing their surface roughness. In our experiments, a nanosecond-pulsed infrared laser source with variable pulse durations between 8 and 200 ns was applied. The impact of varying a large number of parameters on the surface quality of the smoothed areas was investigated. The results demonstrated a reduction of surface roughness Sa by more than 80% for Titanium 64 and by 65% for Scalmalloy® samples. This allows to extend the applicability of additive manufactured components beyond the current state of the art and break new ground for the application in various industrial applications such as in aerospace.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeria Garbero ◽  
Massimo Milelli ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Paola Mercogliano ◽  
Mikhail Varentsov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Urban Canopy ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Cosmo Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat Flux ◽  
Urban Heat

The increase in built surfaces constitutes the main reason for the formation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI), that is a metropolitan area significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas. The urban heat islands and other urban-induced climate feedbacks may amplify heat stress and urban flooding under climate change and therefore to predict them correctly has become essential. Currently in the COSMO model, cities are represented by natural land surfaces with an increased surface roughness length and a reduced vegetation cover, but this approach is unable to correctly reproduce the UHI effect. By increasing the model resolution, a representation of the main physical processes that characterize the urban local meteorology should be addressed, in order to better forecast temperature, moisture and precipitation in urban environments. Within the COSMO Consortium a bulk parameterization scheme (TERRA_URB or TU) has been developed. It parametrizes the effects of buildings, streets and other man-made impervious surfaces on energy, moist and momentum exchanges between the surface and atmosphere, and additionally accounts for the anthropogenic heat flux as a heat source from the surface to the atmosphere. TU implements an impervious water-storage parameterization, and the Semi-empirical Urban canopy parametrization (SURY) that translates 3D urban canopy into bulk parameters. This paper presents evaluation results of the TU scheme in high-resolution simulations with a recent COSMO model version for selected European cities, namely Turin, Naples and Moscow. The key conclusion of the work is that the TU scheme in the COSMO model reasonably reproduces UHI effect and improves air temperature forecasts for all the investigated urban areas, despite each city has very different morphological characteristics. Our results highlight potential benefits of a new turbulence scheme and the representation of skin-layer temperature (for vegetation) in the model performance. Our model framework provides perspectives for enhancing urban climate modelling, although further investigations in improving model parametrizations, calibration and the use of more realistic urban canopy parameters are needed.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Cash Flow Bullwhip—Literature Review and Research Perspectives

Logistics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Hicham Lamzaouek ◽  
Hicham Drissi ◽  
Naima El Haoud
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Research Perspectives ◽  
Financial Perspective ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Exhaustive List

The bullwhip effect is a pervasive phenomenon in all supply chains causing excessive inventory, delivery delays, deterioration of customer service, and high costs. Some researchers have studied this phenomenon from a financial perspective by shedding light on the phenomenon of cash flow bullwhip (CFB). The objective of this article is to provide the state of the art in relation to research work on CFB. Our ambition is not to make an exhaustive list, but to synthesize the main contributions, to enable us to identify other interesting research perspectives. In this regard, certain lines of research remain insufficiently explored, such as the role that supply chain digitization could play in controlling CFB, the impact of CFB on the profitability of companies, or the impacts of the omnichannel commerce on CFB.

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