scholarly journals Correction for Nicholls and Tol, Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century

2006 ◽  
Vol 364 (1849) ◽  
pp. 3539-3540
Author(s):  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
Richard S. J. Toll
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
First Century ◽  
Print Version ◽  
Related Article ◽  
Correct Figure ◽  
Article Type ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Sres Scenarios

Correction for ‘Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century’ by Robert J. Nicholls and Richard S. J. Toll (Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 364 , 1073–1095. (doi: 10.1098/rsta.2006.1754 )). Figure 10 in the print version of this paper is incorrect; the correct figure is shown in the next page. The first full paragraph of p. 1089 in the print version of this paper is incorrect; the correct paragraph is as follows.

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century

2006 ◽  
Vol 364 (1841) ◽  
pp. 1073-1095 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J Nicholls ◽  
Richard S.J Tol
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 ‘future worlds’), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost–benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

scholarly journals “We Would Ride Safely in the Harbor of the Future”: Historical Parallels between the Existential Threats of Yellow Fever and Sea Level Rise in New Orleans and Norfolk

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-335
Author(s):  
Morris W. Foster ◽  
Emily E. Steinhilber
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Yellow Fever ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Sanitary Reform ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
And Sea Level

AbstractThe nineteenth-century experiences of yellow fever epidemics in New Orleans and Norfolk present historical parallels for how those cities, and others, are experiencing existential threats from climate change and sea level rise in the twenty-first century. In particular, the nineteenth-century “sanitary reform” movement can be interpreted as a model for challenges facing twenty-first-century “climate resilience” initiatives, including denialism and political obfuscation of scientific debates as well as tensions between short-term profit and the cost of long-term infrastructure investments and between individualism and communitarianism. The history of sanitary reform suggests that, at least in the United States, climate resilience initiatives will advance largely on a regional basis through extended local debates around these and other challenges until resilient infrastructure and practices are taken for granted, much as sanitary waterworks and sewers are today.

scholarly journals The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 570-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jochen Hinkel ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
Sally Brown ◽  
Jose A. Jiménez ◽  
Daniel Lincke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1934) ◽  
pp. 161-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
Natasha Marinova ◽  
Jason A. Lowe ◽  
Sally Brown ◽  
Pier Vellinga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

scholarly journals Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 1191-1209 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. A. Slangen ◽  
C. A. Katsman ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal ◽  
L. L. A. Vermeersen ◽  
R. E. M. Riva
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
First Century ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Ipcc Sres Scenarios

scholarly journals Correction for Braendle et al. , Genetic variation for an aphid wing polyphenism is genetically linked to a naturally occurring wing polymorphism

2005 ◽  
Vol 272 (1581) ◽  
pp. 2659-2659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Braendle ◽  
Ilvy Friebe ◽  
Marina C. Caillaud ◽  
David L. Stern
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variation ◽  
Wing Polymorphism ◽  
Print Version ◽  
Related Article ◽  
Correct Figure ◽  
Link Type ◽  
Naturally Occurring ◽  
Article Type

Correction for ‘Genetic variation for an aphid wing polyphenism is genetically linked to a naturally occurring wing polymorphism’ by Christian Braendle, Ilvy Friebe, Marina C. Caillaud and David L. Stern (Proc. R. Soc. B 272 , 657–664. (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2004.2995 )). Figure 2 in the print version of this paper is incorrect; the correct figure is as follows.

scholarly journals Spatial Variability of Sea Level Rise in Twenty-First Century Projections

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (17) ◽  
pp. 4585-4607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianjun Yin ◽  
Stephen M. Griffies ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
First Century ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract A set of state-of-the-science climate models are used to investigate global sea level rise (SLR) patterns induced by ocean dynamics in twenty-first-century climate projections. The identified robust features include bipolar and bihemisphere seesaws in the basin-wide SLR, dipole patterns in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and a beltlike pattern in the Southern Ocean. The physical and dynamical mechanisms that cause these patterns are investigated in detail using version 2.1 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model (CM2.1). Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the steric sea level changes relative to the global mean (the local part) in different ocean basins are attributed to differential heating and salinity changes of various ocean layers and associated physical processes. As a result of these changes, water tends to move from the ocean interior to continental shelves. In the North Atlantic, sea level rises north of the Gulf Stream but falls to the south. The dipole pattern is induced by a weakening of the meridional overturning circulation. This weakening leads to a local steric SLR east of North America, which drives more waters toward the shelf, directly impacting northeastern North America. An opposite dipole occurs in the North Pacific. The dynamic SLR east of Japan is linked to a strong steric effect in the upper ocean and a poleward expansion of the subtropical gyre. In the Southern Ocean, the beltlike pattern is dominated by the baroclinic process during the twenty-first century, while the barotropic response of sea level to wind stress anomalies is significantly delayed.

scholarly journals Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures

One Earth ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 691-703
Author(s):  
Martin Siegert ◽  
Richard B. Alley ◽  
Eric Rignot ◽  
John Englander ◽  
Robert Corell
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century

Sensitivity of Twenty-First-Century Global-Mean Steric Sea Level Rise to Ocean Model Formulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2947-2956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Hallberg ◽  
Alistair Adcroft ◽  
John P. Dunne ◽  
John P. Krasting ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Model Formulation ◽  
Steric Sea Level ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Two comprehensive Earth system models (ESMs), identical apart from their oceanic components, are used to estimate the uncertainty in projections of twenty-first-century sea level rise due to representational choices in ocean physical formulation. Most prominent among the formulation differences is that one (ESM2M) uses a traditional z-coordinate ocean model, while the other (ESM2G) uses an isopycnal-coordinate ocean. As evidence of model fidelity, differences in twentieth-century global-mean steric sea level rise are not statistically significant between either model and observed trends. However, differences between the two models’ twenty-first-century projections are systematic and both statistically and climatically significant. By 2100, ESM2M exhibits 18% higher global steric sea level rise than ESM2G for all four radiative forcing scenarios (28–49 mm higher), despite having similar changes between the models in the near-surface ocean for several scenarios. These differences arise primarily from the vertical extent over which heat is taken up and the total heat uptake by the models (9% more in ESM2M than ESM2G). The fact that the spun-up control state of ESM2M is warmer than ESM2G also contributes by giving thermal expansion coefficients that are about 7% larger in ESM2M than ESM2G. The differences between these models provide a direct estimate of the sensitivity of twenty-first-century sea level rise to ocean model formulation, and, given the span of these models across the observed volume of the ventilated thermocline, may also approximate the sensitivities expected from uncertainties in the characterization of interior ocean physical processes.

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