Good enough tools for global warming policy making

2007 ◽  
Vol 365 (1853) ◽  
pp. 897-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.H Socolow ◽  
S.H Lam
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
List Type ◽  
Target Level ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Urgent Task ◽  
Great Pressure ◽  
Mitigation Effort ◽  
Industrial Level

We present a simple analysis of the global warming problem caused by the emissions of CO 2 (a major greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. We provide quantitative tools which enable policymakers and interested citizens to explore the following issues central to the global warming problem. At what rate are we permitted to continue to emit CO 2 after the global average atmospheric concentration has ‘stabilized’ at some chosen target level? The answer here provides the magnitude of the effort , measured by the necessary total reduction of today's global (annual) emissions rate to achieve stabilization. We shall see that stabilized emissions rates for all interesting stabilized concentration levels are much lower than the current emissions rate, but these small finite values are very important. Across how many years can we spread the total effort to reduce the annual CO 2 emissions rate from its current high value to the above-mentioned low and stabilized target value? The answer here provides the time-scale of the total mitigation effort for any chosen atmospheric concentration target level. We confirm the common understanding that targets below a doubling of the pre-industrial concentration create great pressure to produce action immediately, while targets above double the pre-industrial level can tolerate longer periods of inaction. How much harder is the future mitigation effort, if we do not do our share of the job now? Is it a good idea to overshoot a stabilization target? The quantitative answers here provide the penalty of procrastination . For example, the mitigation task to avoid doubling the pre-industrial level is a problem that can be addressed gradually, over a period extending more than a century, if started immediately, but procrastination can turn the effort into a much more urgent task that extends over only a few decades. We also find that overshooting target levels is a bad idea. The quality of public discourse on this subject could be much enhanced if ball-park quantitative answers to these questions were more widely known.

scholarly journals Geoengineering the climate: an overview and update

2012 ◽  
Vol 370 (1974) ◽  
pp. 4166-4175 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Field Tests ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Magic Bullet ◽  
List Type ◽  
Research Activity

The climate change that we are experiencing now is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activities, including burning fossil fuels, agriculture and deforestation. There is now widespread belief that a global warming of greater than 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels would be dangerous and should therefore be avoided. However, despite growing concerns over climate change and numerous international attempts to agree on reductions of global CO 2 emissions, these have continued to climb. This has led some commentators to suggest more radical ‘geoengineering’ alternatives to conventional mitigation by reductions in CO 2 emissions. Geoengineering is deliberate intervention in the climate system to counteract man-made global warming. There are two main classes of geoengineering: direct carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management that aims to cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. The findings of the review of geoengineering carried out by the UK Royal Society in 2009 are summarized here, including the climate effects, costs, risks and research and governance needs for various approaches. The possible role of geoengineering in a portfolio of responses to climate change is discussed, and various recent initiatives to establish good governance of research activity are reviewed. Key findings include the following. — Geoengineering is not a magic bullet and not an alternative to emissions reductions. — Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions must remain our highest priority. (i) But this is proving to be difficult, and geoengineering may be useful to support it. — Geoengineering is very likely to be technically possible. (i) However, there are major uncertainties and potential risks concerning effectiveness, costs and social and environmental impacts. — Much more research is needed, as well as public engagement and a system of regulation (for both deployment and for possible large-scale field tests). — The acceptability of geoengineering will be determined as much by social, legal and political issues as by scientific and technical factors. Some methods of both types would involve release of materials to the environment, either to the atmosphere or to the oceans, in areas beyond national jurisdiction. The intended impacts on climate would in any case affect many or all countries, possibly to a variable extent. There are therefore inherent international implications for deployment of such geoengineering methods (and possibly also for some forms of research), which need early and collaborative consideration, before any deployment or large-scale experiments could be undertaken responsibly.

Prediction on Carbon Emissions Reduction and Analysis on Economic Development Based on Energy Consumption Policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 229-232
Author(s):  
Hailong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Computer Technology ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Carbon Emissions Reduction ◽  
Industrial Level

As to the global warming, China has confidence in the development of the economy by bearing responsibility and obligation toward curbing global warming, which at this time can be achieved by reducing carbon emissions. Industry is an important material production department in the national economy, and plays a leading role in the national economy. Chinese industrial production is mainly based on the consumption of fossil fuels, resulting in a large amount of CO2 emission. Therefore, how to find a way to predict the discharge of CO2 by computer technology and make people realize the importance of low carbon development at industrial level is the focus of this study.

Global Warming and Its Multiple Causes

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Romdhane Ben Slama
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Infrared Radiation ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The One ◽  
Heat Released ◽  
Emission Of Greenhouse Gases

The global warming which preoccupies humanity, is still considered to be linked to a single cause which is the emission of greenhouse gases, CO2 in particular. In this article, we try to show that, on the one hand, the greenhouse effect (the radiative imprisonment to use the scientific term) took place in conjunction with the infrared radiation emitted by the earth. The surplus of CO2 due to the combustion of fossil fuels, but also the surplus of infrared emissions from artificialized soils contribute together or each separately,  to the imbalance of the natural greenhouse effect and the trend of global warming. In addition, another actor acting directly and instantaneously on the warming of the ambient air is the heat released by fossil fuels estimated at 17415.1010 kWh / year inducing a rise in temperature of 0.122 ° C, or 12.2 ° C / century.

Political Preferences, Personality Traits, and Environmentalism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Soutter ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Environmental Attitudes ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Voting

Although the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change continues to grow, public discourse still reflects a high level of scepticism and political polarisation towards anthropogenic climate change. In this study (N = 499) we attempted to replicate and expand upon an earlier finding that environmental terminology (“climate change” versus “global warming”) could partly explain political polarisation in environmental scepticism (Schuldt, Konrath, & Schwarz, 2011). Participants completed a series of online questionnaires assessing personality traits, political preferences, belief in environmental phenomenon, and various pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Those with a Conservative political orientation and/or party voting believed less in both climate change and global warming compared to those with a Liberal orientation and/or party voting. Furthermore, there was an interaction between continuously measured political orientation, but not party voting, and question wording on beliefs in environmental phenomena. Personality traits did not confound these effects. Furthermore, continuously measured political orientation was associated with pro-environmental attitudes, after controlling for personality traits, age, gender, area lived in, income, and education. The personality domains of Openness, and Conscientiousness, were consistently associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, whereas Agreeableness was associated with pro-environmental attitudes but not with behaviours. This study highlights the importance of examining personality traits and political preferences together and suggests ways in which policy interventions can best be optimised to account for these individual differences.

Effect of Co, Cu, and Zn on FeAlK catalyst in CO2 hydrogenation to C5+ hydrocarbons

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khasan Nasriddinov ◽  
Ji-Eun Min ◽  
Hae-Gu Park ◽  
Seung Ju Han ◽  
Jingyu Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Catalytic Activity ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Co2 Hydrogenation ◽  
High Catalytic Activity ◽  
Long Chain ◽  
Cu And Zn

Direct CO2 hydrogenation to long-chain hydrocarbons can mitigate global warming by extensively replacing fossil fuels. However, designing a suitable catalyst with high catalytic activity and C5+ hydrocarbon selectivity continues to...

scholarly journals The Race of Mankind: Global Warming In the 21rst Century

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Erik Lane
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Third World ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Implementation Process ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Third World ◽  
First World

The implementation process of the global accord on climate change has to start now in order to be implementable. The decentralized process if implementation should take the lessons from the theory of policy implementation into account (Pressman & Wildavsky, 1984; Wildavsky, 1987). The dependency upon various forms of coal (wood, stone) and fossil fuels is so large in the Third World that only massive financial assistance from the First World can mean a difference for the COP21 objectives. And many advanced countries (except Uruguay) also need to make great changes to comply with COP21.

scholarly journals Subcritical and Supercritical Operation of Innovative Thermal Mechanical Refrigeration System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sleiti ◽  
Wahib Al-Ammari ◽  
Mohammed Al-Khawaja ◽  
Maxim Glushenkov ◽  
Alexander Kronberg
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Waste Heat ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Refrigeration System ◽  
Heat System ◽  
Global Warming Potentials ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

Around 17% of the globally generated energy is consumed for residential, commercial, and transportation refrigeration. The current cooling technologies utilize refrigerants with high Ozone Depletion and Global Warming Potentials. Furthermore, the current technologies are expensive alongside with toxicity and flammability hazards. On the other side, energy produced by combustion of fossil fuels results in substantial amounts of waste heat. Therefore, it is necessary to develop new refrigeration technologies that utilize waste heat as a source of energy with ecofriendly refrigerants with zero ozone depletion potential and zero global warming potential. In addition, this thermal mechanical refrigeration (TMR) technology improves the energy efficiency of the source of waste heat system and minimizes the emissions of the carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, a novel thermo-mechanical refrigeration system is proposed. It operates with low-grade energy sources (such as waste heat) at temperature range of 60 oC to 100 oC. Furthermore, it has the advantage of working with low-frequency driver-compressor unit, which eliminates noise and increases its lifetime. Moreover, the TMR system is adaptable to commercial, transportation, and residential refrigeration applications.

scholarly journals Effective CO<sub>2</sub> lifetime and future CO<sub>2</sub> levels based on fit function

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 1591-1596 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. R. Sonnemann ◽  
M. Grygalashvyly
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Power Function ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Atmospheric Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Effective Lifetime ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations

Abstract. The estimated global CO2 emission rates and the measured atmospheric CO2 concentrations show that only a certain share of the emitted CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. For given atmospheric emissions of CO2, the effective lifetime determines its accumulation in the atmosphere and, consequently, its impact on the future global warming. We found that on average the inferred effective lifetime of CO2 decreases as its atmospheric concentration increases, reducing the rate of its accumulation in the atmosphere. We derived a power function that fits the varying lifetimes. Based on this fitting function, we calculated the increase of CO2 for different scenarios of future global emission rates.

scholarly journals Environmental Payback of Renovation Strategies in a Northern Climate—the Impact of Nuclear Power and Fossil Fuels in the Electricity Supply

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Ramírez-Villegas ◽  
Ola Eriksson ◽  
Thomas Olofsson
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Radioactive Waste ◽  
Global Warming Potential ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to assess how the use of fossil and nuclear power in different renovation scenarios affects the environmental impacts of a multi-family dwelling in Sweden, and how changes in the electricity production with different energy carriers affect the environmental impact. In line with the Paris Agreement, the European Union has set an agenda to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by means of energy efficiency in buildings. It is estimated that by the year 2050, 80% of Europe’s population will be living in buildings that already exist. This means it is important for the European Union to renovate buildings to improve energy efficiency. In this study, eight renovation scenarios, using six different Northern European electricity mixes, were analyzed using the standard of the European Committee for Standardization for life cycle assessment of buildings. This study covers all life cycle steps from cradle to grave. The renovation scenarios include combinations of photovoltaics, geothermal heat pumps, heat recovery ventilation, and improvement of the building envelope. The results show that while in some electricity mixes a reduction in the global warming potential can be achieved, it can be at the expense of an increase in radioactive waste production, and, in mixes with a high share of fossil fuels, the global warming potential of the scenarios increases with time, compared with that of the original building. It also shows that in most electricity mixes, scenarios that reduce the active heat demand of the building end up in reducing both the global warming potential and radioactive waste, making them less sensitive to changes in the energy system.

Nitrous Oxide: Trends and Global Mass Balance Over the Last 3000 Years

1988 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 73-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.A.K. Khalil ◽  
R.A. Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Nitrous Oxide ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Average Concentration ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Nitrogen Fertilizers ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Slow Increase

We analyzed ice cores from both northern and southern polar regions to determine the concentrations of nitrous oxide in the pre-industrial and ancient atmospheres from about 150 years to 3000 yearsB.P.We found that the pre-industrial concentration of nitrous oxide remained constant over the period we studied and that the average atmospheric concentration was 285 ± 1 ppb volume (90% confidence limits), representing about 2100 Tg (2100 × 1012g) of N20 in the atmosphere, whereas the average concentration in 1984 was about 307 ppb volume or 2260 Tg. This is a change of 22 ppb volume (160 Tg), or about 8%, between pre-industrial and present times. Now the rate of change is between 0.7 and 0.9 ppb volume/year or 5 and 6.5 Tg/year, which is a slow increase of about 0.3% per year. The changes observed are probably caused by increasing use of fossil fuels, particularly coal and oil, and perhaps to a lesser extent by the use of nitrogen fertilizers in recent years. The atmospheric lifetime of N2O is probably between 100 and 150 years. The pre-industrial concentrations, present levels, and a lifetime of 100 years are consistent with natural sources, mostly soils and oceans, of about 22 Tg/year and the present anthropogenic sources of about 8.7 Tg/year. In the next 50 years we expect nitrous oxide levels to reach 360–390 ppb volume, or about 16–25% more than present.

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