scholarly journals Partitioning prediction uncertainty in climate-dependent population models

2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1845) ◽  
pp. 20162353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Gauthier ◽  
Guillaume Péron ◽  
Jean-Dominique Lebreton ◽  
Patrick Grenier ◽  
Louise van Oudenhove
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Sampling Variance ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Prediction Uncertainty ◽  
The Future ◽  
Process Variance

The science of complex systems is increasingly asked to forecast the consequences of climate change. As a result, scientists are now engaged in making predictions about an uncertain future, which entails the efficient communication of this uncertainty. Here we show the benefits of hierarchically decomposing the uncertainty in predicted changes in animal population size into its components due to structural uncertainty in climate scenarios (greenhouse gas emissions and global circulation models), structural uncertainty in the demographic model, climatic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity unexplained by climate–demographic trait relationships, and sampling variance in demographic parameter estimates. We quantify components of uncertainty surrounding the future abundance of a migratory bird, the greater snow goose ( Chen caeruslescens atlantica ), using a process-based demographic model covering their full annual cycle. Our model predicts a slow population increase but with a large prediction uncertainty. As expected from theoretical variance decomposition rules, the contribution of sampling variance to prediction uncertainty rapidly overcomes that of process variance and dominates. Among the sources of process variance, uncertainty in the climate scenarios contributed less than 3% of the total prediction variance over a 40-year period, much less than environmental stochasticity. Our study exemplifies opportunities to improve the forecasting of complex systems using long-term studies and the challenges inherent to predicting the future of stochastic systems.

How Is the Future Unknown?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martijn van der Steen ◽  
Mark van Twist
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Organizational Strategies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Uncertain Future

The future is inherently uncertain. However, most policies are deliberate attempts to anticipate the future and to change and shape the future in an intended way. This chapter provides concepts for three key elements that are necessary to prepare for an unknown future. First, it conceptualizes what makes the future uncertain; uncertainty does not stem from the amount of time itself, but rather from the dynamics that can play out in that time. That is why it matters significantly if a system is complex or complicated; complex systems are much more dynamic and unpredictable, and complicated systems are much more stable and predictable. Second, there are different approaches for “studying” the dynamics; forecasting and foresight depart from entirely different angles of looking at the future, and both have their own strengths and weakness. Third, there are different organizational strategies for preparing for an unknown future; robustness, resilience, and adaptivity are three possible principles for organizing and preparing for uncertainty. In order to prepare for an uncertain future, or to study the uncertain future, scholars and policymakers should systematically take these three essential steps into account; how is the future unknown, how do we study the future, and what concept for anticipation do we apply here?

Invited review: Importance of animal health and welfare for the stability of the three pillars of sustainability of livestock systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-214
Author(s):  
P. Chemineau
Keyword(s):  
Animal Welfare ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Strong Interactions ◽  
Essential Components ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Livestock Systems

The future livestock systems at the world level will have to produce more in the perspective of the population increase in the next 30 years, whereas reducing their environmental footprint and addressing societal concerns. In that perspective, we may wonder if animal health and animal welfare, which are two essential components of production systems, may play an important role in the stability of the three pillars of sustainability of the livestock systems. We already know that objectives driven by economy, environment and society may modify animal welfare and animal health, but is the reverse true? The answer is yes and in 11 cases out of 12 of the matrix health-welfare×3 pillars of sustainability×positive or negative change, we have many examples indicating that animal health and animal welfare are able to modify, positively or negatively, the three pillars of sustainability. Moreover, we also have good examples of strong interactions between health and welfare. These elements play in favour of an holistic approach at the farm level and of a multicriterial definition of what could be the sustainable systems of animal production in the future which will respect animal welfare and maintain a good animal health.

Crossing the Chasm

2012 ◽  
pp. 280-289
Author(s):  
Theresa M. Vitolo
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Serious Games ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Serious Game ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
Current State ◽  
Gaming Technology ◽  
The Future

Serious games are technology with unrealized potential as an innovation for reasoning about complex systems. The technology is enticing to technologically-savvy individuals, but the acceptance of serious games into mainstream processes requires addressing several systemic issues spanning social, economic, behavioral, and technological aspects. First, deployment of gaming technology for critical processes needs to embrace statistical and scientific methods appropriate for valid, accurate, and verifiable simulation of such processes. Second, identifying the correct instance and application breadth for a serious game within an organization needs to be articulated and supported with research. Third, funding for serious-games initiatives will need to be won as the funding will displace monies previously allocated and championed for other projects. Last, the endeavor faces the problem of negative connotations about its appropriateness as a viable technology for mainstream processes rather than for entertainment and diversion. The chapter examines the chasm serious games must traverse by examining the issues and posing approaches to minimize their effect on the adoption of the technology. The histories of other technologies that faced similar hurdles are compared to the current state of serious games, offering a perspective on the hurdle’s resolution. In the future, the hurdles can be minimized as curricula are developed with the solutions to the issues incorporated in the content.

Effect of soil C model structural uncertainty on global projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Artem Vladimirov ◽  
Taras Vasilyev ◽  
Nadezda Vasilyeva
Keyword(s):  
Soil Surface ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Soil C ◽  
Prediction Uncertainty ◽  
The Family ◽  
Model Family

<p>In this study we apply the family of mathematical models for soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics to estimate the effect of SOC model structural uncertainty on global scale C  projections. The model family features switchable biological and physical mechanisms (such as explicit microbes, dynamic CUE and turnover, priming effect, dynamic adsorption strength and physical occlusion) in a single modeling framework where mechanisms can be turned on and off without affecting model parameters that are not involved in a given mechanism. The model family fit to experimental chronosequence data provided uncertainty ranges for mechanism-specific parameters and individual models likelihood.</p><p>Selected models were run with litter fall, soil surface temperature and moisture from Earth System Model (ESM) simulation as an input, while model parameters were randomly distributed according to their uncertainties. Variance of obtained model trajectories in a given time frame was assumed as a lower estimate for model prediction uncertainty. Different models in the family were compared by their prediction uncertainty in addition to their likelihoods to obtain the final estimate for efficiency of a certain model for ESM.</p>

Types of scientific rationality in aspects of the three paradigm

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-30
Author(s):  
Карпин ◽  
V. Karpin ◽  
Живогляд ◽  
R. Zhivoglyad ◽  
Гудкова ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Basic Principle ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Scientific Rationality ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
The Third ◽  
Self Development ◽  
The Future

Since the release of the well-known work of W. Weaver «Science and Complexity» (1948) only V.S. Stepin had taken some significant efforts to develop the doctrine of the three types of systems in nature. In this case, the main achievements of V.S. Stepin in postnonclassic reduced to two fundamental results: violation of the basic principle of T. Kuhn´s contradictions when changing paradigms (V.S. Stepin shows the effect of «investments», when complex systems operate classical and nonclassical rationality simultaneously) and repeated emphasis on the possibility of «change ... the probability of emerging of other (the system) conditions». At the same time, V.S. Stepin in his last works (monographs) identified a particular role of self-organization and self-development in case of complex biosocial systems. All this in theory of chaos and self-organization form 5 basic principles of functioning of complexity (or systems of the third type - STT). In fact, V.S. Stepin laid the foundation for the future (new) philosophy and developed now theory of chaos and self-organization in which humanity moved into the area of uncertainty of living (social in particular) systems completely. However, the rationality of the third type (postnonclassic) requires corrections and additions, as shown in a number of monographs of V.S. Stepin.

The Debate in Africa

1973 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 745-747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurice H. King
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
The Public ◽  
Population Policies ◽  
Family Limitation ◽  
Modern Methods ◽  
The Future

The comparative emptiness of Africa in relation to so many other parts of the developing world makes it difficult both for the administrator and the public to see the demographic advantages of a slower rate of population increase. This difficulty is accentuated by tensions among the tribes within a country, and by the racial tensions in the continent as a whole. Political difficulties are compounded by personal ones and there are deep psychologic impediments to family limitation. Although traditional methods of family planning are common in many tribes, there is much resistance to the modern methods that attempt to replace them. Yet even if the economic arguments for family limitation are not widely understood, progress has been made and family planning is slowly coming to be more widely accepted. Still, ominous portents for the future can already be seen. The recent bloodshed in Rwanda, on a scale which has had too little international publicity, seems to have been at least partly due to the pressure of people on land. This is a warning of what the continent can expect if her countries do not make good use of the time that most of them still have to implement rational population policies.

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