Climate change scenarios reveal that Turkey’s wheat production area is under the combined effects of heat and drought stresses. The adverse effects of climate change have just begun to be experienced in Turkey’s spring and the winter wheat zones. However, climate change is likely to affect the winter wheat zone more severely. Fortunately, there is a fast, repeatable, reliable and relatively affordable way to predict climate change effects on winter wheat (e.g., testing winter wheat in the spring wheat zone). For this purpose, 36 wheat genotypes in total, consisting of 14 spring and 22 winter types, were tested under the field conditions of the Southeastern Anatolia Region, a representative of the spring wheat zone of Turkey, during the two cropping seasons (2017–2018 and 2019–2020). Simultaneous heat (>30 °C) and drought (<40 mm) stresses occurring in May and June during both growing seasons caused drastic losses in winter wheat grain yield and its components. Declines in plant characteristics of winter wheat genotypes, compared to those of spring wheat genotypes using as a control treatment, were determined as follows: 46.3% in grain yield, 23.7% in harvest index, 30.5% in grains per spike and 19.4% in thousand kernel weight, whereas an increase of 282.2% in spike sterility occurred. On the other hand, no substantial changes were observed in plant height (10 cm longer than that of spring wheat) and on days to heading (25 days more than that of spring wheat) of winter wheat genotypes. In general, taller winter wheat genotypes tended to lodge. Meanwhile, it became impossible to avoid the combined effects of heat and drought stresses during anthesis and grain filling periods because the time to heading of winter wheat genotypes could not be shortened significantly. In conclusion, our research findings showed that many winter wheat genotypes would not successfully adapt to climate change. It was determined that specific plant characteristics such as vernalization requirement, photoperiod sensitivity, long phenological duration (lack of earliness per se) and vulnerability to diseases prevailing in the spring wheat zone, made winter wheat difficult to adapt to climate change. The most important strategic step that can be taken to overcome these challenges is that Turkey’s wheat breeding program objectives should be harmonized with the climate change scenarios.
Is adaptation to climate change really constrained in niche specialists?