scholarly journals Breeding experience and population density affect the ability of a songbird to respond to future climate variation

2007 ◽  
Vol 274 (1625) ◽  
pp. 2539-2545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Wilson ◽  
D. Ryan Norris ◽  
Amy G Wilson ◽  
Peter Arcese
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Variation ◽  
Mixed Effects Models ◽  
Breeding Date ◽  
Cohort Differences

Predicting how populations respond to climate change requires an understanding of whether individuals or cohorts within populations vary in their response to climate variation. We used mixed-effects models on a song sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ) population in British Columbia, Canada, to examine differences among females and cohorts in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climatic variables, age and population density were strong predictors of timing of breeding, but we also found considerable variation among individual females and cohorts. Within cohorts, females differed markedly in their breeding date and cohorts also differed in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity. The plasticity of a cohort appeared to be due primarily to an interaction between the environmental conditions (climate and density) experienced at different ages rather than innate inter-cohort differences. Cohorts that expressed higher plasticity in breeding date experienced warmer El Niño springs in their second or third breeding season, suggesting that prior experience affects how well individuals responded to abnormal climatic conditions. Cohorts born into lower density populations also expressed higher plasticity in breeding date. Interactions between age, experience and environmental conditions have been reported previously for long-lived taxa. Our current results indicate that similar effects operate in a short-lived, temperate songbird.

scholarly journals El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climatic Conditions around the World during the Latter Half of the Twenty-First Century

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (15) ◽  
pp. 6189-6207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott B. Power ◽  
François P. D. Delage
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The World ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Mean State

Increases in greenhouse gas emissions are expected to cause changes both in climatic variability in the Pacific linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and in long-term average climate. While mean state and variability changes have been studied separately, much less is known about their combined impact or relative importance. Additionally, studies of projected changes in ENSO have tended to focus on changes in, or adjacent to, the Pacific. Here we examine projected changes in climatic conditions during El Niño years and in ENSO-driven precipitation variability in 36 CMIP5 models. The models are forced according to the RCP8.5 scenario in which there are large, unmitigated increases in greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. We examine changes over much of the globe, including 25 widely spread regions defined in the IPCC special report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). We confirm that precipitation variability associated with ENSO is projected to increase in the tropical Pacific, consistent with earlier research. We also find that the enhanced tropical Pacific variability drives ENSO-related variability increases in 19 SREX regions during DJF and in 18 during JJA. This externally forced increase in ENSO-driven precipitation variability around the world is on the order of 15%–20%. An increase of this size, although substantial, is easily masked at the regional level by internally generated multidecadal variability in individual runs. The projected changes in El Niño–driven precipitation variability are typically much smaller than projected changes in both mean state and ENSO neutral conditions in nearly all regions.

scholarly journals Effect of climate variability on Collaria scenica (Hemiptera: Miridae) on the Bogotá plateau

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-61
Author(s):  
Andrea Rodríguez-Roa ◽  
Blanca Arce-Barboza ◽  
Francisco Boshell-Villamarin ◽  
Nancy Barreto-Triana
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Population Fluctuations ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Thermal Amplitude

The aim of this research was to study the effect of climatic conditions on the population of the grass bug Collaria scenica (Stal, 1859) using agroclimatic models and analyzing its behavior under interannual variability scenarios related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The population fluctuations of this grass bug were modeled, estimating significant climatic variables in the presence of nymphs and adults with a multiple linear regression analysis. The population distribution of this insect in relation to the occurrence of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena on the Bogota plateau was analyzed based on variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and their impact on climate variables. The maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and evapotranspiration showed higher significance for this pest than the other variables. The optimal growth and development conditions for this grass bug occurred during periods with a higher daily thermal amplitude and high precipitation values, which highlights the positive effect of abundant, but not excessive, rain. This study helped to determine the population growth during the two seasons of the year with higher rainfall in the area, which correspond to March-May (MAM) and September-November (SON), mainly in the following season after the dry quarter of December-February (DJF). Important increases occur in the El Niño event because of the greater accumulation of heat units during this phenomenon based on increases in air temperature that favor insect growth.

scholarly journals Lag effect of climatic variables on dengue burden in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satya Ganesh Kakarla ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni ◽  
Andrew P Morse ◽  
Suryanaryana Murty Upadhyayula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Surveillance Program ◽  
Lag Period ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractDengue is a widespread vector-borne disease believed to affect between 100 and 390 million people every year. The interaction between vector, host and pathogen is influenced by various climatic factors and the relationship between dengue and climatic conditions has been poorly explored in India. This study explores the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and dengue cases in India. Additionally, distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the delayed effects of climatic factors on dengue cases. The weekly dengue cases reported by the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program (IDSP) over India during the period 2010–2017 were analysed. The study shows that dengue cases usually follow a seasonal pattern, with most cases reported in August and September. Both temperature and rainfall were positively associated with the number of dengue cases. The precipitation shows the higher transmission risk of dengue was observed between 8 and 15 weeks of lag. The highest relative risk (RR) of dengue was observed at 60 mm rainfall with a 12-week lag period when compared with 40 and 80 mm rainfall. The RR of dengue tends to increase with increasing mean temperature above 24 °C. The largest transmission risk of dengue was observed at 30 °C with a 0–3 weeks of lag. Similarly, the transmission risk increases more than twofold when the minimum temperature reaches 26 °C with a 2-week lag period. The dengue cases and El Niño were positively correlated with a 3–6 months lag period. The significant correlation observed between the IOD and dengue cases was shown for a 0–2 months lag period.

scholarly journals Properties of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Different Equilibrium Climates with HadCM3

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (19) ◽  
pp. 4854-4876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Toniazzo
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Stable Steady State ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The ENSO variability in three long, stable, steady-state integrations of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) is analyzed, relevant to climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), of the preindustrial period [control (CTL)], and of a greenhouse stabilization scenario (GHS) at 4 times the preindustrial CO2 concentration. It is found that progressively from LGM to CTL and GHS, the SST variability pattern associated with ENSO is centered farther west, and the oscillation acquires a shorter dominant period. While there are no large changes in total SST variability, very strong events become less frequent, and El Niño events develop over a narrower period within the seasonal cycle. The westward ENSO pattern shift is concurrent with a similar shift in the climatological wind stress distribution and with increased convective activity over the west equatorial Pacific. The wind response to anomalous SSTs follows this shift and increases in strength. The thermocline feedback becomes stronger in the 4 × CO2 integration, but the largest SST anomalies are associated with surface processes. The role of surface flux damping for the decay of anomalous SSTs is reduced in LGM and increased in GHS. From the analysis, the principal changes in mean climate that appear to affect the evolution of ENSO-related SST anomalies in HadCM3 are thus the changes in zonal wind stress over the equator, the depth of the equatorial thermocline, and the sensitivity of atmospheric convection to equatorial SST anomalies.

scholarly journals Climate change alters impacts of extreme climate events on a tropical perennial tree crop

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Creedy ◽  
Rebecca A. Asare ◽  
Alexandra C. Morel ◽  
Mark Hirons ◽  
Yadvinder Malhi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Perennial Crop ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Increasing Temperature

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change causes more frequent and intense fluctuations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Understanding the effects of ENSO on agricultural systems is crucial for predicting and ameliorating impacts on lives and livelihoods, particularly in perennial tree crops, which may show both instantaneous and delayed responses. Using cocoa production in Ghana as a model system, here we show that in recent times, El Niño years experience reductions in cocoa production followed by several years of increased production, a significantly different pattern than prior to the 1980s. ENSO phase affects the climate in Ghana, and over the same time period, we see concomitant significant shifts in the climatic conditions resulting from ENSO extremes, with increasing temperature and water stress. Our results illustrate the big data analyses necessary to improve understanding of perennial crop responses to climate change in general, and climate extremes in particular.

ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN LITTLE TUNA [Eutynnus affinis (Cantor, 1849)] CATCHES: A CASE FOR THE NORTH INDRAMAYU WATERS, JAVA SEA

2016 ◽  
Vol 78 (4-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mega Syamsuddin ◽  
Sunarto Sunarto ◽  
Lintang Yuliadi
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ocean Climate ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The North ◽  
Favorable Environmental Condition ◽  
Java Sea

Environmental variability during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) derived from satellite imagery of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll a were investigated during 2010 to 2014. This study investigates how ocean climate variability of ENSO affects environmental conditions and further addresses their relations with Eastern Little Tuna catches. Changes in environmental conditions during ENSO events resulted in perceivable variations in catches, with an average catches of 839.6 t during El Niño. The La Niña event, with an average catches of 602.6 t was less favorable for catches. Major fishing location located around 3.22-6.59ºS and 108.20-109.67ºE could have been suggested as the most favorable environmental condition to Eastern Little Tuna catch in the North Indramayu waters, Java Sea.

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