scholarly journals Species richness changes lag behind climate change

2006 ◽  
Vol 273 (1593) ◽  
pp. 1465-1470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosa Menéndez ◽  
Adela González Megías ◽  
Jane K Hill ◽  
Brigitte Braschler ◽  
Stephen G Willis ◽  
...  

Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970–82, but much more slowly than predicted from changes of climate: on average, only one-third of the predicted increase has taken place. The resultant species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species that were able to respond quickly. The time lag is confirmed by the successful introduction of many species to climatically suitable areas beyond their ranges. Our results imply that it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate.

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 245-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Schickhoff ◽  
M. Bobrowski ◽  
J. Böhner ◽  
B. Bürzle ◽  
R. P. Chaudhary ◽  
...  

Abstract. Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines and rather insignificant responses. The inconsistency of findings suggests distinct differences in the sensitivity of global treelines to recent climate change. It is still unclear where Himalayan treeline ecotones are located along the response gradient from rapid dynamics to apparently complete inertia. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding sensitivity and response of Himalayan treelines to climate warming, based on extensive field observations, published results in the widely scattered literature, and novel data from ongoing research of the present authors. Several sensitivity indicators such as treeline type, treeline form, seed-based regeneration, and growth patterns are evaluated. Since most Himalayan treelines are anthropogenically depressed, observed advances are largely the result of land use change. Near-natural treelines are usually krummholz treelines, which are relatively unresponsive to climate change. Nevertheless, intense recruitment of treeline trees suggests a great potential for future treeline advance. Competitive abilities of seedlings within krummholz thickets and dwarf scrub heaths will be a major source of variation in treeline dynamics. Tree growth–climate relationships show mature treeline trees to be responsive to temperature change, in particular in winter and pre-monsoon seasons. High pre-monsoon temperature trends will most likely drive tree growth performance in the western and central Himalaya. Ecological niche modelling suggests that bioclimatic conditions for a range expansion of treeline trees will be created during coming decades.


Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1330
Author(s):  
Michelle Knaggs ◽  
Samuel Haché ◽  
Scott E. Nielsen ◽  
Rhiannon F. Pankratz ◽  
Erin Bayne

Research Highlights: The effects of fire on birds in the most northern parts of the boreal forest are understudied. We found distinct differences in bird communities with increasing fire severity in two vegetation types with naturally different burn severity. The highest severity burns tended to have communities dominated by generalist species, regardless of the original vegetation type. Background and Objectives: Wildfire is the primary natural disturbance in the boreal ecosystems of northwestern Canada. Increased wildfire frequency, extent, and severity are expected with climate change in this region. In particular, the proportion of burns that are high severity and the area of peatlands burned are increasing, and how this influences birds is poorly understood. Materials and Methods: We quantified the effects of burn severity (low, moderate, and high severity) in uplands and peatlands on occupancy, density, richness, community composition, and functional diversity using point counts (n = 1158) from the first two years post-fire for two large fires in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Results: Burn severity had a significant effect on the occupancy and density of 86% of our focal species (n = 20). Responses to burn severity depended on vegetation type for four of the 18 species using occupancy and seven of the 18 using density, but were typically in a similar direction. Species richness and functional diversity were lower in areas of high severity burns than unburned areas and low severity burns in peatlands. Richness was not related to severity in uplands, but functional diversity was. Peatlands had higher species richness than uplands in all burn severities, but as burn severity increased the upland and peatland communities became more similar. Conclusions: Our results suggest that high severity burns in both vegetation types support five generalist species and two fire specialists that may benefit from alterations in vegetation structure as a result of climate induced changes to fire regimes. However, eight species avoided burns, particularly birds preferring peatlands, and are likely to be more susceptible to fire-driven changes to their habitat caused by climate change. Understanding the long-term risks to these species from climate change requires additional efforts that link fire to bird populations.


2006 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Anne Harris ◽  
Brian F. Cumming ◽  
John P. Smol

New Brunswick lakes are subjected to multiple environmental stressors, such as atmospheric acid deposition and climate change. In the absence of long-term environmental data, the impacts of these stressors are not well understood. Long-term effects of environmental change on diatom species assemblages were assessed in the sediments of 16 New Brunswick lakes using paleolimnological approaches. A regional trend of increasing Cyclotella stelligera Cleve & Gunrow and decreasing Aulacoseira species complex was recorded in most lakes. Detailed paleolimnological analyses of Wolfe, Cundy, and West Long lakes revealed varying degrees of species change, with assemblage shifts beginning ca. 1900 CE (common era). These species trends are not consistent with acidification. However, linear regression of mean July temperature with time for two New Brunswick historical instrumental temperature records revealed statistically significant warming over the past century. The shift from heavily silicified tychoplanktonic Aulacoseira species to small planktonic diatom species, such as C. stelligera, is consistent with paleolimnological inferences of warming trends recorded in several other lake regions of the Northern Hemisphere. These assemblage shifts are likely due to recent climate change and may be mediated by reduced ice cover and (or) increased thermal stability (decreased lake mixing) during the open water period.


1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 362-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Essery

Northern Hemisphere snow cover varies greatly through the year, and the presence of snow has a large impact on interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere. This paper outlines the representation of snow cover in the Hadley Centre GCM, and compares simulated snow cover with satellite and ground-based observations. Climate warming in a simulation with increased concentrations of CO2 and sulphate aerosols is found to lead to larger reductions in snow cover over North Ameriea and Europe than over Asia.


2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1776) ◽  
pp. 20131800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon R. Bridle ◽  
James Buckley ◽  
Edward J. Bodsworth ◽  
Chris D. Thomas

Generalist species and phenotypes are expected to perform best under rapid environmental change. In contrast to this view that generalists will inherit the Earth, we find that increased use of a single host plant is associated with the recent climate-driven range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly. Field assays of female host plant preference across the UK reveal a diversity of adaptations to host plants in long-established parts of the range, whereas butterflies in recently colonized areas are more specialized, consistently preferring to lay eggs on one host plant species that is geographically widespread throughout the region of expansion, despite being locally rare. By common-garden rearing of females’ offspring, we also show an increase in dispersal propensity associated with the colonization of new sites. Range expansion is therefore associated with an increase in the spatial scale of adaptation as dispersive specialists selectively spread into new regions. Major restructuring of patterns of local adaptation is likely to occur across many taxa with climate change, as lineages suited to regional colonization rather than local success emerge and expand.


2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 717-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alemu Gonsamo ◽  
Jing M. Chen ◽  
Drew T. Shindell ◽  
Gregory P. Asner

Abstract. A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980–2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gonsamo ◽  
J. M. Chen ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
G. P. Asner

Abstract. A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using three decades (1980−2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology and thaw, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of ENSO, North American Pattern and East Atlantic Pattern, whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.


1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 362-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Essery

Northern Hemisphere snow cover varies greatly through the year, and the presence of snow has a large impact on interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere. This paper outlines the representation of snow cover in the Hadley Centre GCM, and compares simulated snow cover with satellite and ground-based observations. Climate warming in a simulation with increased concentrations of CO2and sulphate aerosols is found to lead to larger reductions in snow cover over North Ameriea and Europe than over Asia.


2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1809) ◽  
pp. 20150441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren B. Buckley ◽  
César R. Nufio ◽  
Evan M. Kirk ◽  
Joel G. Kingsolver

Annual species may increase reproduction by increasing adult body size through extended development, but risk being unable to complete development in seasonally limited environments. Synthetic reviews indicate that most, but not all, species have responded to recent climate warming by advancing the seasonal timing of adult emergence or reproduction. Here, we show that 50 years of climate change have delayed development in high-elevation, season-limited grasshopper populations, but advanced development in populations at lower elevations. Developmental delays are most pronounced for early-season species, which might benefit most from delaying development when released from seasonal time constraints. Rearing experiments confirm that population, elevation and temperature interact to determine development time. Population differences in developmental plasticity may account for variability in phenological shifts among adults. An integrated consideration of the full life cycle that considers local adaptation and plasticity may be essential for understanding and predicting responses to climate change.


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakub Langhammer ◽  
Jana Bernsteinová

This study analyzed the long-term alterations in runoff regime, seasonality and variability in headwater montane basins in Central Europe in response to the manifestations of climate change. We tested the common hypotheses on climate change effects on surface runoff dynamics in the Central Europe region, assuming that (i) recent climate warming will result in shifts in the seasonality of runoff, (ii) the runoff balance will remain without significant changes and (iii) that higher variability in runoff can be expected. The analyses were done on eight montane catchments in four mid-latitude mountain ranges in Central Europe, based on the uninterrupted time series of daily discharge observations from 1952 to 2018. We used 33 indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA), 34 indicators of environmental flow components, the baseflow index, the calculation of surplus and deficit volumes and the frequency of peak and low flows. Homogeneity testing using Buishand, Pettitt and SNHT tests was applied to test the response of the hydrological alteration indicators to climate warming. We have proved the significant shifts in runoff seasonality, coinciding with the timing of the air temperature rise, marked by earlier snowmelt, followed by a decline in spring flows and a prolonged period of low flows. There was detected a rise in the baseflow index across the mountain ranges. Unlike the common hypotheses, the expected rise of runoff variability and frequency of peak flows was not demonstrated. However, we have identified a significant change of the flood hydrographs, tending to steeper shape with shorter recessing limbs as a sign of rising inner dynamics of flood events in montane catchments.


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