scholarly journals Network geometry and market instability

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 201734
Author(s):  
Areejit Samal ◽  
Hirdesh K. Pharasi ◽  
Sarath Jyotsna Ramaia ◽  
Harish Kannan ◽  
Emil Saucan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Ricci Curvature ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
System Level ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Major Market ◽  
Pairwise Interactions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Market Instability ◽  
Business As Usual

The complexity of financial markets arise from the strategic interactions among agents trading stocks, which manifest in the form of vibrant correlation patterns among stock prices. Over the past few decades, complex financial markets have often been represented as networks whose interacting pairs of nodes are stocks, connected by edges that signify the correlation strengths. However, we often have interactions that occur in groups of three or more nodes, and these cannot be described simply by pairwise interactions but we also need to take the relations between these interactions into account. Only recently, researchers have started devoting attention to the higher-order architecture of complex financial systems, that can significantly enhance our ability to estimate systemic risk as well as measure the robustness of financial systems in terms of market efficiency. Geometry-inspired network measures, such as the Ollivier–Ricci curvature and Forman–Ricci curvature, can be used to capture the network fragility and continuously monitor financial dynamics. Here, we explore the utility of such discrete Ricci curvatures in characterizing the structure of financial systems, and further, evaluate them as generic indicators of the market instability. For this purpose, we examine the daily returns from a set of stocks comprising the USA S&P-500 and the Japanese Nikkei-225 over a 32-year period, and monitor the changes in the edge-centric network curvatures. We find that the different geometric measures capture well the system-level features of the market and hence we can distinguish between the normal or ‘business-as-usual’ periods and all the major market crashes. This can be very useful in strategic designing of financial systems and regulating the markets in order to tackle financial instabilities.

scholarly journals Ricci curvature: An economic indicator for market fragility and systemic risk

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. e1501495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romeil S. Sandhu ◽  
Tryphon T. Georgiou ◽  
Allen R. Tannenbaum
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Ricci Curvature ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
System Level ◽  
Geometric Feature ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Standard And Poor's ◽  
High Level ◽  
Business As Usual

Quantifying the systemic risk and fragility of financial systems is of vital importance in analyzing market efficiency, deciding on portfolio allocation, and containing financial contagions. At a high level, financial systems may be represented as weighted graphs that characterize the complex web of interacting agents and information flow (for example, debt, stock returns, and shareholder ownership). Such a representation often turns out to provide keen insights. We show that fragility is a system-level characteristic of “business-as-usual” market behavior and that financial crashes are invariably preceded by system-level changes in robustness. This was done by leveraging previous work, which suggests that Ricci curvature, a key geometric feature of a given network, is negatively correlated to increases in network fragility. To illustrate this insight, we examine daily returns from a set of stocks comprising the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) over a 15-year span to highlight the fact that corresponding changes in Ricci curvature constitute a financial “crash hallmark.” This work lays the foundation of understanding how to design (banking) systems and policy regulations in a manner that can combat financial instabilities exposed during the 2007–2008 crisis.

Stricter microprudential supervision versus macroprudential supervision

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 354-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry D Wall
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop an explicitly macroprudential supervisory framework designed to identify threats to financial stability use existing mechanisms to reduce the risk of these threats and to provide information to the authorities to more efficiently mitigate any instability that does arise. Design/methodology/approach – This paper begins with an analysis of the limitations of microprudential regulation. It then develops a macroprudential surveillance framework focused on those financial markets that have the potential to undermine financial stability. It concludes with a discussion of how the surveillance results may be used to enhance financial stability. Findings – The current supervisory focus on microprudential supervision of systemically important institutions is insufficient; an explicitly macroprudential focus is required. Research limitations/implications – Although this paper’s conceptual framework is applicable to all advanced financial systems the discussion of specific regulatory structures focuses on the USA. Practical implications – An explicit supervisory focus on the threats posed by major financial markets is feasible and desirable. Social implications – The probability of a financial crisis and the economic damage caused by a crisis can be significantly reduced by redirecting some regulatory efforts toward in-depth analysis of major financial markets. Originality/value – The paper emphasizes that macroprudential supervision must include both quantitative and detailed analysis of the qualitative aspects of key markets.

scholarly journals Impact of Innovative Financial Products on Financial Systems: Exchange Traded Products and the Polish Financial System

2016 ◽  
pp. 114-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Marszk
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Financial Products ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Key Topics ◽  
Fast Transmission

Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) are one of the most recent and most rapidly developing financial products. As their assets grow they have an increasing impact on financial systems in many countries, including the USA, UK or Japan. Development of ETPs is linked with many opportunities and threats for the local financial systems. Their correct assessment is becoming more difficult due to the growing complexity of the available products, thus posing problems not only for the participants of the financial markets (including buyers and sellers of ETPs as well as intermediaries) but also for the supervising authorities. The main ETP development trends (e.g. size of the global assets under management) are outlined in this article. Structural changes are discussed in the context of their impact on both local and global financial systems. One of the key topics is the consequences of the changing landscape of the most popular type of ETP – Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Simple and safe physical ETFs are being replaced by complicated synthetic ETFs, significantly increasing possible risks for the holders of such products, for other entities involved in their creation and distribution, and, consequently, for the whole financial system. The last part of the article is devoted to the Polish perspective on this topic. It may be argued that in Poland the role of ETPs (even ETFs) is still marginal. ETPs can influence the Polish financial system, however, through a number of links between Polish and foreign financial institutions and markets. As a result, fast transmission of the future shocks caused by such products is increasingly more probable.

Opportunities for improving the insider laws: A comparative analysis of the practice in the USA and Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 796-814
Author(s):  
E.K. Ovakimyan
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Insider Trading ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Market Manipulation ◽  
Insider Information ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Legislative Perfection ◽  
Definition Of

Subject. The article examines the laws regulating insider trading. Objectives. The study outlines recommendations for refining Law On Countering the Illegal Use of Insider Information and Market Manipulation and Amendments to Some Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation, № 224-ФЗ of July 27, 2010. Methods. The methodological framework includes a general dialectical method, analysis and synthesis, induction and deductions, and some specific methods, such as comparative and formal logic analysis to specify the definition of insider information, structural logic and functional analysis to improve the mechanism for countering insider trading and market manipulation. Results. We discovered key drawbacks to be addressed so as to improve the business environment in Russia. Although the Russia laws mainly mirror the U.S. laws, they present a more extended list of terms concerning the insider information. I believe the legislative perfection should be continued. Conclusions and Relevance. The study helps apply the findings to outline a new legislative regulation or amend the existing ones, add a new mention on the course of financial markets to students’ books, develop new methods for detecting and countering and improving the existing ones. If all parties to insider relationships use the findings, they will prevent insider trading crimes in financial markets and (or) reduce the negative impact of such crimes on the parties.

scholarly journals Do Share Repurchases Distort Stock Prices? Evidence from the United States and Malaysia

2021 ◽  
pp. 232102222110243
Author(s):  
Chong-Meng Chee ◽  
Nazrul Hisyam bin Ab Razak ◽  
Bany Ariffin bin Amin Noordin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Share Repurchases ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Share Repurchase ◽  
Price Support ◽  
Global Finance ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Sample Support

Heavy share buyback years after the global finance crisis 2008–2009 drew criticism from scholars and financial press that share repurchases were being used by firms to manipulate their stock prices. This paper examines whether a greater firm’s repurchase intensity distorts stock prices reflecting to information. We analyse 2 sets of unbalanced panel data that contain a sample of 337 US and another sample of 167 Malaysian repurchasing firms between 2012 and 2016. Contrary to the criticism, we find that a greater firms’ share buyback intensity in the USA stimulates faster incorporation of information in price and results in more efficient stock prices. The main findings hold true and are robust when an alternative measure of share repurchase intensity was used. The findings of US sample support the notion that share repurchase serves as a signalling tool and price support to promote more efficient stock prices. We also find no strong evidence supporting the notion that shares repurchased by Malaysian firms distort stock prices. JEL Classification: G10, G14, G35

Experimental study on fire resistance of a full-scale composite floor assembly in a two-story steel framed building

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Choe ◽  
Selvarajah Ramesh ◽  
Xu Dai ◽  
Matthew Hoehler ◽  
Matthew Bundy
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Fire Resistance ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
System Level ◽  
Compartment Fire ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Standard Fire ◽  
Fire Experiment ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Floor System

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to report the first of four planned fire experiments on the 9.1 × 6.1 m steel composite floor assembly as part of the two-story steel framed building constructed at the National Fire Research Laboratory.Design/methodology/approachThe fire experiment was aimed to quantify the fire resistance and behavior of full-scale steel–concrete composite floor systems commonly built in the USA. The test floor assembly, designed and constructed for the 2-h fire resistance rating, was tested to failure under a natural gas fueled compartment fire and simultaneously applied mechanical loads.FindingsAlthough the protected steel beams and girders achieved matching or superior performance compared to the prescribed limits of temperatures and displacements used in standard fire testing, the composite slab developed a central breach approximately at a half of the specified rating period. A minimum area of the shrinkage reinforcement (60 mm2/m) currently permitted in the US construction practice may be insufficient to maintain structural integrity of a full-scale composite floor system under the 2-h standard fire exposure.Originality/valueThis work was the first-of-kind fire experiment conducted in the USA to study the full system-level structural performance of a composite floor system subjected to compartment fire using natural gas as fuel to mimic a standard fire environment.

Risk Factors in Equilibrium Models of Open Economies

2010 ◽  
pp. 23-28
Author(s):  
D. Kuz'min
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Equilibrium Models ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Cyclic Processes ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Liquidity Crisis

World liquidity crisis, which started in the USA in 2007, is reputed to be the first full-fledged global financial crisis. The liquidity crisis became global exactly due to the influence of large economies' national financial markets on many small ones. The analysis of the crisis expansion and development in these states (the USA, China, Iceland, Mexico, CEE countries) demonstrated that not only working accounts and reserves, but also foreign and internal borrowings, and therefore, household consumption, investments and government consumption proved to be affected by cyclic processes.

scholarly journals The Effect of FOMC Votes on Financial Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 101 (5) ◽  
pp. 921-932
Author(s):  
Carlos Madeira ◽  
João Madeira
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Federal Open Market Committee ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
Treasury Securities ◽  
Stock Market Reaction

This paper shows that since votes of members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been included in press statements, stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but fall when dissent (which typically is due to preference for higher interest rates) occurs. This pattern started prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The differences in stock market reaction between unanimity and dissent remain, even controlling for the stance of monetary policy and consecutive dissent. Statement semantics also do not seem to explain the documented effect. We find no differences between unanimity and dissent with respect to impact on market risk and Treasury securities.

scholarly journals Spillovers of US Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies to Russian Financial Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigeki Ono
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

This paper investigates the spillovers of US conventional and unconventional monetary policies to Russian financial markets using VAR-X models. Impulse responses to an exogenous Federal Funds rate shock are assessed for all the endogenous variables. The empirical results show that both conventional and unconventional tightening monetary policy shocks decrease stock prices whereas an easing monetary policy shock does not increase stock prices. Moreover, the results suggest that an unconventional tightening monetary policy shock increases Russian interest rates and decreases oil prices, implying reduced liquidity in international financial markets.

scholarly journals Financial Markets’ Governance, Transparency and Informational Efficiency: Role of IfRS Norms, Auditors and Financial Analysts

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Imen Lamiri ◽  
Adel Boubaker
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Informational Efficiency

<p>This article explores the informational role of three essential modern financial markets actors such IFRS norms, the Big”4” and the financial analysts for a panel of emergent and developed countries during the period from 2001 to 2010. We hypothesis that these mechanisms help improving the quality of specific information incorporated into stock prices measured by the stock price synchronicity (SPS). The main result is that both financial analyst’s coverage and IFRS adoption's effects seem to be stronger for emerging than developed markets. The results also show a negative relationship between auditors’ opinion and coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>).</p>

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