scholarly journals Quantifying the risk of vector-borne disease transmission attributable to genetically modified vectors

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 201525
Author(s):  
Geoffrey R. Hosack ◽  
Adrien Ickowicz ◽  
Keith R. Hayes

The relative risk of disease transmission caused by the potential release of transgenic vectors, such as through sterile insect technique or gene drive systems, is assessed with comparison with wild-type vectors. The probabilistic risk framework is demonstrated with an assessment of the relative risk of lymphatic filariasis, malaria and o'nyong'nyong arbovirus transmission by mosquito vectors to human hosts given a released transgenic strain of Anopheles coluzzii carrying a dominant sterile male gene construct. Harm is quantified by a logarithmic loss function that depends on the causal risk ratio, which is a quotient of basic reproduction numbers derived from mathematical models of disease transmission. The basic reproduction numbers are predicted to depend on the number of generations in an insectary colony and the number of backcrosses between the transgenic and wild-type lineages. Analogous causal risk ratios for short-term exposure to a single cohort release are also derived. These causal risk ratios were parametrized by probabilistic elicitations, and updated with experimental data for adult vector mortality. For the wild-type, high numbers of insectary generations were predicted to reduce the number of infectious human cases compared with uncolonized wild-type. Transgenic strains were predicted to produce fewer infectious cases compared with the uncolonized wild-type.

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Nace Kranjc ◽  
Andrea Crisanti ◽  
Tony Nolan ◽  
Federica Bernardini

The increase in molecular tools for the genetic engineering of insect pests and disease vectors, such as Anopheles mosquitoes that transmit malaria, has led to an unprecedented investigation of the genomic landscape of these organisms. The understanding of genome variability in wild mosquito populations is of primary importance for vector control strategies. This is particularly the case for gene drive systems, which look to introduce genetic traits into a population by targeting specific genomic regions. Gene drive targets with functional or structural constraints are highly desirable as they are less likely to tolerate mutations that prevent targeting by the gene drive and consequent failure of the technology. In this study we describe a bioinformatic pipeline that allows the analysis of whole genome data for the identification of highly conserved regions that can point at potential functional or structural constraints. The analysis was conducted across the genomes of 22 insect species separated by more than hundred million years of evolution and includes the observed genomic variation within field caught samples of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii, the two most dominant malaria vectors. This study offers insight into the level of conservation at a genome-wide scale as well as at per base-pair resolution. The results of this analysis are gathered in a data storage system that allows for flexible extraction and bioinformatic manipulation. Furthermore, it represents a valuable resource that could provide insight into population structure and dynamics of the species in the complex and benefit the development and implementation of genetic strategies to tackle malaria.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron C. Ericsson ◽  
Marcia L. Hart ◽  
Jessica Kwan ◽  
Louise Lanoue ◽  
Lynette R. Bower ◽  
...  

AbstractThe mouse is the most commonly used model species in biomedical research. Just as human physical and mental health are influenced by the commensal gut bacteria, mouse models of disease are influenced by the fecal microbiome (FM). The source of mice represents one of the strongest influences on the FM and can influence the phenotype of disease models. The FM influences behavior in mice leading to the hypothesis that mice of the same genetic background from different vendors, will have different behavioral phenotypes. To test this hypothesis, colonies of CD-1 mice, rederived via embryo transfer into surrogate dams from four different suppliers, were subjected to phenotyping assays assessing behavior and physiological parameters. Significant differences in behavior, growth rate, metabolism, and hematological parameters were observed. Collectively, these findings show the profound influence of supplier-origin FMs on host behavior and physiology in healthy, genetically similar, wild-type mice maintained in identical environments.


2007 ◽  
Vol 51 (11) ◽  
pp. 3988-4000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnold Louie ◽  
David L. Brown ◽  
Weiguo Liu ◽  
Robert W. Kulawy ◽  
Mark R. Deziel ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT The prevalence of fluoroquinolone-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae is slowly rising as a consequence of the increased use of fluoroquinolone antibiotics to treat community-acquired pneumonia. We tested the hypothesis that increased efflux pump (EP) expression by S. pneumoniae may facilitate the emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance. By using an in vitro pharmacodynamic infection system, a wild-type S. pneumoniae strain (Spn-058) and an isogenic strain with EP overexpression (Spn-RC2) were treated for 10 days with ciprofloxacin or levofloxacin in the presence or absence of the EP inhibitor reserpine to evaluate the effect of EP inhibition on the emergence of resistance. Cultures of Spn-058 and Spn-RC2 were exposed to concentration-time profiles simulating those in humans treated with a regimen of ciprofloxacin at 750 mg orally once every 12 h and with regimens of levofloxacin at 500 and 750 mg orally once daily (QD; with or without continuous infusions of 20 μg of reserpine/ml). The MICs of ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin for Spn-058 were both 1 μg/ml when susceptibility testing was conducted with each antibiotic alone and with each antibiotic in the presence of reserpine. For Spn-RC2, the MIC of levofloxacin alone and with reserpine was also 1 μg/ml; the MICs of ciprofloxacin were 2 and 1 μg/ml, respectively, when determined with ciprofloxacin alone and in combination with reserpine. Reserpine, alone, had no effect on the growth of Spn-058 and Spn-RC2. For Spn-058, simulated regimens of ciprofloxacin at 750 mg every 12 h or levofloxacin at 500 mg QD were associated with the emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance. However, the use of ciprofloxacin at 750 mg every 12 h and levofloxacin at 500 mg QD in combination with reserpine rapidly killed Spn-058 and prevented the emergence of resistance. For Spn-RC2, levofloxacin at 500 mg QD was associated with the emergence of resistance, but again, the resistance was prevented when this levofloxacin regimen was combined with reserpine. Ciprofloxacin at 750 mg every 12 h also rapidly selected for ciprofloxacin-resistant mutants of Spn-RC2. However, the addition of reserpine to ciprofloxacin therapy only delayed the emergence of resistance. Levofloxacin at 750 mg QD, with and without reserpine, effectively eradicated Spn-058 and Spn-RC2 without selecting for fluoroquinolone resistance. Ethidium bromide uptake and efflux studies demonstrated that, at the baseline, Spn-RC2 had greater EP expression than Spn-058. These studies also showed that ciprofloxacin was a better inducer of EP expression than levofloxacin in both Spn-058 and Spn-RC2. However, in these isolates, the increase in EP expression by short-term exposure to ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin was transient. Mutants of Spn-058 and Spn-RC2 that emerged under suboptimal antibiotic regimens had a stable increase in EP expression. Levofloxacin at 500 mg QD in combination with reserpine, an EP inhibitor, or at 750 mg QD alone killed wild-type S. pneumoniae and strains that overexpressed reserpine-inhibitable EPs and was highly effective in preventing the emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance in S. pneumoniae during therapy. Ciprofloxacin at 750 mg every 12 h, as monotherapy, was ineffective for the treatment of Spn-058 and Spn-RC2. Ciprofloxacin in combination with reserpine prevented the emergence of resistance in Spn-058 but not in Spn-RC2, the EP-overexpressing strain.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (402) ◽  
pp. eaam8060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel J. Taylor ◽  
Johanna M. Duyvestyn ◽  
Samantha A. Dagger ◽  
Emma J. Dishington ◽  
Catherine A. Rinaldi ◽  
...  

We describe an approach to inhibit chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression. We found that short-term exposure of mice to the FLT3 inhibitor quizartinib induced the transient quiescence of multipotent progenitors (MPPs). This property of quizartinib conferred marked protection to MPPs in mice receiving fluorouracil or gemcitabine. The protection resulted in the rapid recovery of bone marrow and blood cellularity, thus preventing otherwise lethal myelosuppression. A treatment strategy involving quizartinib priming that protected wild-type bone marrow progenitors, but not leukemic cells, from fluorouracil provided a more effective treatment than conventional induction therapy in mouse models of acute myeloid leukemia. This strategy has the potential to be extended for use in other cancers where FLT3 inhibition does not adversely affect the effectiveness of chemotherapy. Thus, the addition of quizartinib to cancer treatment regimens could markedly improve cancer patient survival and quality of life.


2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (11) ◽  
pp. e2019225118
Author(s):  
Robert A. Shumsky ◽  
Laurens Debo ◽  
Rebecca M. Lebeaux ◽  
Quang P. Nguyen ◽  
Anne G. Hoen

We examine how operational changes in customer flows in retail stores affect the rate of COVID-19 transmission. We combine a model of customer movement with two models of disease transmission: direct exposure when two customers are in close proximity and wake exposure when one customer is in the airflow behind another customer. We find that the effectiveness of some operational interventions is sensitive to the primary mode of transmission. Restricting customer flow to one-way movement is highly effective if direct exposure is the dominant mode of transmission. In particular, the rate of direct transmission under full compliance with one-way movement is less than one-third the rate under two-way movement. Directing customers to follow one-way flow, however, is not effective if wake exposure dominates. We find that two other interventions—reducing the speed variance of customers and throughput control—can be effective whether direct or wake transmission is dominant. We also examine the trade-off between customer throughput and the risk of infection to customers, and we show how the optimal throughput rate drops rapidly as the population prevalence rises.


2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (138) ◽  
pp. 20170696 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Morozova ◽  
Ted Cohen ◽  
Forrest W. Crawford

Epidemiologists commonly use the risk ratio to summarize the relationship between a binary covariate and outcome, even when outcomes may be dependent. Investigations of transmissible diseases in clusters—households, villages or small groups—often report risk ratios. Epidemiologists have warned that risk ratios may be misleading when outcomes are contagious, but the nature of this error is poorly understood. In this study, we assess the meaning of the risk ratio when outcomes are contagious. We provide a mathematical definition of infectious disease transmission within clusters, based on the canonical stochastic susceptible–infective model. From this characterization, we define the individual-level ratio of instantaneous infection risks as the inferential target, and evaluate the properties of the risk ratio as an approximation of this quantity. We exhibit analytically and by simulation the circumstances under which the risk ratio implies an effect whose direction is opposite that of the true effect of the covariate. In particular, the risk ratio can be greater than one even when the covariate reduces both individual-level susceptibility to infection, and transmissibility once infected. We explain these findings in the epidemiologic language of confounding and Simpson's paradox, underscoring the pitfalls of failing to account for transmission when outcomes are contagious.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie James ◽  
Karen Tountas

After years of success in reducing the global malaria burden, the World Health Organization (WHO) recently reported that progress has stalled. Over 90% of malaria deaths world-wide occurred in the WHO African Region. New tools are needed to regain momentum and further decrease the burden of malaria. Gene drive, an emerging technology that can enhance the inheritance of beneficial genes, offers potentially transformative solutions for overcoming these challenges. Gene drives may decrease disease transmission by interfering with the growth of the malaria parasite in the mosquito vector or reducing mosquito reproductive capacity. Like other emerging technologies, development of gene drive products faces technical and non-technical challenges and uncertainties. In 2018, to begin addressing such challenges, a multidisciplinary group of international experts published comprehensive recommendations for responsible testing and implementation of gene drive-modified mosquitoes to combat malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa. Considering requirements for containment, efficacy and safety testing, monitoring, stakeholder engagement and authorization, as well as policy and regulatory issues, the group concluded that gene drive products for malaria can be tested safely and ethically, but that this will require substantial coordination, planning, and capacity development. The group emphasized the importance of co-development and co-ownership of products by in-country scientists.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Levente Kriston

Abstract Background Infectious disease predictions models, including virtually all epidemiological models describing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, are rarely evaluated empirically. The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictive accuracy of a prognostic model for forecasting the development of the cumulative number of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases in countries and administrative regions worldwide until the end of May 2020. Methods The cumulative number of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases was forecasted in 251 regions with a horizon of two weeks, one month, and two months using a hierarchical logistic model at the end of March 2020. Forecasts were compared to actual observations by using a series of evaluation metrics. Results On average, predictive accuracy was very high in nearly all regions at the two weeks forecast, high in most regions at the one month forecast, and notable in the majority of the regions at the two months forecast. Higher accuracy was associated with the availability of more data for estimation and with a more pronounced cumulative case growth from the first case to the date of estimation. In some strongly affected regions, cumulative case counts were considerably underestimated. Conclusions With keeping its limitations in mind, the investigated model may be used for the preparation and distribution of resources during the initial phase of epidemics. Future research should primarily address the model’s assumptions and its scope of applicability. In addition, establishing a relationship with known mechanisms and traditional epidemiological models of disease transmission would be desirable.


2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (5) ◽  
pp. 1141-1146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jifeng Bian ◽  
Vadim Khaychuk ◽  
Rachel C. Angers ◽  
Natalia Fernández-Borges ◽  
Enric Vidal ◽  
...  

Adaptation of prions to new species is thought to reflect the capacity of the host-encoded cellular form of the prion protein (PrPC) to selectively propagate optimized prion conformations from larger ensembles generated in the species of origin. Here we describe an alternate replicative process, termed nonadaptive prion amplification (NAPA), in which dominant conformers bypass this requirement during particular interspecies transmissions. To model susceptibility of horses to prions, we produced transgenic (Tg) mice expressing cognate PrPC. Although disease transmission to only a subset of infected TgEq indicated a significant barrier to EqPrPCconversion, the resulting horse prions unexpectedly failed to cause disease upon further passage to TgEq. TgD expressing deer PrPCwas similarly refractory to deer prions from diseased TgD infected with mink prions. In both cases, the resulting prions transmitted to mice expressing PrPCfrom the species of prion origin, demonstrating that transmission barrier eradication of the originating prions was ephemeral and adaptation superficial in TgEq and TgD. Horse prions produced in vitro by protein misfolding cyclic amplification of mouse prions using horse PrPCalso failed to infect TgEq but retained tropism for wild-type mice. Concordant patterns of neuropathology and prion deposition in susceptible mice infected with NAPA prions and the corresponding prion of origin confirmed preservation of strain properties. The comparable responses of both prion types to guanidine hydrochloride denaturation indicated this occurs because NAPA precludes selection of novel prion conformations. Our findings provide insights into mechanisms regulating interspecies prion transmission and a framework to reconcile puzzling epidemiological features of certain prion disorders.


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