scholarly journals Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 200599
Author(s):  
Ann Kristin Klose ◽  
Volker Karle ◽  
Ricarda Winkelmann ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Real World ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Unified Theory ◽  
Nutrient Input ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Lake Chain

In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Complex interactions exist between tipping elements, e.g. physical mechanisms connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behaviour of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behaviour allowing for tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The (narrative) application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements indicates that tipping cascades with profound consequences may occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging cascading tipping dynamics calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements.

Dynamic emergence of domino effects in systems of interacting tipping elements in ecology and climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Kristin Klose ◽  
Volker Karle ◽  
Ricarda Winkelmann ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Real World ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Tipping Behavior ◽  
Lake Chain ◽  
Long Term Behavior

<p>In ecology, climate and other fields, systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Tipping elements are not independent from each other as there exist complex interactions, e.g. through physical mechanisms that connect subsystems of the climate system. <br>Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behavior of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behavior allowing for domino effects and tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. <br>The application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements shows that domino effects with profound consequences can occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels.   <br>The possibility of emerging domino effects calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements.</p>

scholarly journals The Polycentric Dynamics of Melbourne and Sydney: suburb attractiveness divides a city at the home ownership level

2021 ◽  
Vol 477 (2245) ◽  
pp. 20200514
Author(s):  
Emanuele Crosato ◽  
Mikhail Prokopenko ◽  
Michael S. Harré
Keyword(s):  
Population Distribution ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Urban Dynamics ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Population Distributions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Two Cities

Urban dynamics in large metropolitan areas result from complex interactions across social, economic and political factors, including population distribution, flows of wealth and infrastructure requirements. We develop a Census-calibrated model of urban dynamics for the Greater Sydney and Melbourne areas for 2011 and 2016, highlighting the evolution of population distributions and the housing market structure in these two cities in terms of their mortgage and rent distributions. We show that there is a tendency to homophily between renters and mortgage holders: renters tend to cluster nearer commercial centres, whereas mortgagors tend to populate the outskirts of these centres. We also identify a critical threshold at which the long-term evolution of these two cities will bifurcate between a ‘sprawling’ and a ‘polycentric’ configuration, showing that both cities lie on the polycentric side of the critical point in the long-run. Importantly, there is a divergence of these centric tendencies between the renters and mortgage holders. The polycentric patterns characterizing the mortgagors are focused around commercial centres, and we show that the emergent housing patterns follow the major transport routes through the cities.

878-P: Real-World Data from U.S. Patients Using a Long-Term Implantable Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) System: Age Effect on Glycemic Control

Diabetes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 878-P
Author(s):  
KATHERINE TWEDEN ◽  
SAMANWOY GHOSH-DASTIDAR ◽  
ANDREW D. DEHENNIS ◽  
FRANCINE KAUFMAN
Keyword(s):  
Glycemic Control ◽  
Continuous Glucose Monitoring ◽  
Real World ◽  
Glucose Monitoring ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
World Data

scholarly journals Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1928) ◽  
pp. 20200538
Author(s):  
Warren S. D. Tennant ◽  
Mike J. Tildesley ◽  
Simon E. F. Spencer ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
British India ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
The World ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

OP48 Nursing Requirements In Long-Term Care: A Health Technology Assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (S1) ◽  
pp. 11-12
Author(s):  
Paula Corabian ◽  
Charles Yan ◽  
Susan Armijo-Olivo ◽  
Bing Guo
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Care ◽  
Nursing Staff ◽  
Real World ◽  
Research Evidence ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Staff Time ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Relationship

IntroductionThe objectives of this study were to systematically review published research on the relationship between nursing staff coverage, care hours, and quality of care (QoC) in long-term care (LTC) facilities; and to conduct a real world evidence (RWE) analysis using Alberta real world data (RWD) to inform policy makers on whether any amendments could be made to current regulations.MethodsA systematic review (SR) of research evidence published between January 2000 and May 2018 on the relationship between nursing staff coverage, care hours, and QoC in LTC facilities was conducted. Panel data regressions using available RWD from Alberta, Canada, were performed to assess associations between nursing care hours and LTC outcomes. Outcomes of interest included quality indicators related to resident outcomes, hospital admissions, emergency room visits and family satisfaction. Nursing care hours considered in SR and RWE analysis included those provided by registered nurses (RNs) and licensed practical nurses (LPNs).ResultsThe SR found inconsistent and poor quality evidence relevant to the questions of interest, indicating a great uncertainty about the association between nursing staff time and type of coverage and QoC. Although some positive indications were suggested, major weaknesses of reviewed studies limited interpretation of SR results. RWE analysis found that impact of care hours on LTC outcomes was heterogeneous, dependent on outcome measurements. There was evidence that total staff, RN, and LPN hours had positive effects on some resident outcomes and magnitude of effect differed for different nursing staff.ConclusionsNo definitive conclusion could be drawn on whether changing nursing staff time or nursing staff coverage models would affect residents’ outcomes based on the research evidence gathered in the SR. RWE analysis helped to fill a gap in the available published literature and allowed policy makers to better understand the impact of revising current regulations based on actual outcomes.

scholarly journals Improving the robustness of a service robot for continuous indoor monitoring: An incremental approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 172988142110121
Author(s):  
David Portugal ◽  
André G Araújo ◽  
Micael S Couceiro
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Service Robots ◽  
Service Robot ◽  
Technology Readiness ◽  
Incremental Approach ◽  
Technology Readiness Level ◽  
Readiness Level ◽  
Software And Hardware ◽  
Indoor Monitoring

To move out of the lab, service robots must reveal a proven robustness so they can be deployed in operational environments. This means that they should function steadily for long periods of time in real-world areas under uncertainty, without any human intervention, and exhibiting a mature technology readiness level. In this work, we describe an incremental methodology for the implementation of an innovative service robot, entirely developed from the outset, to monitor large indoor areas shared by humans and other obstacles. Focusing especially on the reliability of the fundamental localization system of the robot in the long term, we discuss all the incremental software and hardware features, design choices, and adjustments conducted, and show their impact on the performance of the robot in the real world, in three distinct 24-h long trials, with the ultimate goal of validating the proposed mobile robot solution for indoor monitoring.

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