scholarly journals The coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 568-572 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Ohlemüller ◽  
Barbara J Anderson ◽  
Miguel B Araújo ◽  
Stuart H.M Butchart ◽  
Otakar Kudrna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Cold Adapted ◽  
The Past ◽  
Species Rarity

Why do areas with high numbers of small-range species occur where they do? We found that, for butterfly and plant species in Europe, and for bird species in the Western Hemisphere, such areas coincide with regions that have rare climates, and are higher and colder areas than surrounding regions. Species with small range sizes also tend to occur in climatically diverse regions, where species are likely to have been buffered from extinction in the past. We suggest that the centres of high small-range species richness we examined predominantly represent interglacial relict areas where cold-adapted species have been able to survive unusually warm periods in the last ca 10 000 years. We show that the rare climates that occur in current centres of species rarity will shrink disproportionately under future climate change, potentially leading to high vulnerability for many of the species they contain.

scholarly journals Assessment of the climate change risks for inflow into Sagami Dam reservoir using a hydrological model

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sho Momiyama ◽  
Masaki Sagehashi ◽  
Michihiro Akiba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Calibration Method ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Dam Reservoir ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
The Past ◽  
Comprehensive Method

Abstract Adverse effects of future climate change on water supply systems are of concern. High turbidity caused by abrupt flood, and drought caused by continuous dry days are the major risks. To assess such risks, a comprehensive method to simulate hydrology with high spatiotemporal resolution should be developed. In this study, a series of methods from parameter estimation to future simulation using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was demonstrated for Sagami Dam reservoir, which is a typical water supply reservoir in Japan. A proposed parameter calibration method by optimizing percent bias followed by optimizing Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency gave good performance of model prediction of the daily average reservoir inflow in the past. Using this model, the changes in inflow under expected climate change were simulated. Three predicted daily climates by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) under three representative concentration pathways, i.e., RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, in 2081–2100 were used for the simulation, whereas observed daily climate during 1981–2000 was used as the past reference. The risks were discussed by considering their seasonality, indicating increases in flood and drought in June and July, and in February and April, respectively.

scholarly journals Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 697-713
Author(s):  
Tao Ye ◽  
Weihang Liu ◽  
Jidong Wu ◽  
Yijia Li ◽  
Peijun Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Tibet Autonomous Region ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Abstract. Understanding risk using quantitative risk assessment offers critical information for risk-informed reduction actions, investing in building resilience, and planning for adaptation. This study develops an event-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model for livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) region and derives risk assessment results based on historical climate conditions (1980–2015) and present-day prevention capacity. In the model, a hazard module was developed to identify and simulate individual snow disaster events based on boosted regression trees. By combining a fitted quantitative vulnerability function and exposure derived from vegetation type and grassland carrying capacity, we estimated risk metrics based on livestock mortality and mortality rate. In our results, high-risk regions include the Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tanggula Range, Bayankhar Mountains and the region between the Kailas Range and the neighbouring Himalayas. In these regions, annual livestock mortality rates were estimated as >2 % and mortality was estimated as >2 sheep unit km−1 at a return period of 20 years. Prefectures identified with extremely high risk include Guoluo in Qinghai Province and Naqu, and Shigatse in the Tibet Autonomous Region. In these prefectures, a snow disaster event with a return period of 20 years or higher can easily claim total losses of more than 500 000 sheep units. Our event-based PRA results provide a quantitative reference for preparedness and insurance solutions in reducing mortality risk. The methodology developed here can be further adapted to future climate change risk analyses and provide important information for planning climate change adaption in the QTP region.

scholarly journals Marine biodiversity–ecosystem functions under uncertain environmental futures

2010 ◽  
Vol 365 (1549) ◽  
pp. 2107-2116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark T. Bulling ◽  
Natalie Hicks ◽  
Leigh Murray ◽  
David M. Paterson ◽  
Dave Raffaelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Ecosystem Functioning ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Nutrient Release ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Invertebrate Species ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon

Anthropogenic activity is currently leading to dramatic transformations of ecosystems and losses of biodiversity. The recognition that these ecosystems provide services that are essential for human well-being has led to a major interest in the forms of the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship. However, there is a lack of studies examining the impact of climate change on these relationships and it remains unclear how multiple climatic drivers may affect levels of ecosystem functioning. Here, we examine the roles of two important climate change variables, temperature and concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, on the relationship between invertebrate species richness and nutrient release in a model benthic estuarine system. We found a positive relationship between invertebrate species richness and the levels of release of NH 4 -N into the water column, but no effect of species richness on the release of PO 4 -P. Higher temperatures and greater concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide had a negative impact on nutrient release. Importantly, we found significant interactions between the climate variables, indicating that reliably predicting the effects of future climate change will not be straightforward as multiple drivers are unlikely to have purely additive effects, resulting in increased levels of uncertainty.

scholarly journals The first record of the Siberian northern shrike (Lanius borealis sibiricus) in Lithuania with molecular confirmation

Biologija ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vytautas Eigirdas ◽  
Vesta Jonikė
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Species ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
First Record ◽  
Mitochondrial Cytochrome ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mitochondrial Cytochrome B ◽  
The World ◽  
A New Species

Climate change significantly affects biological diversity around the world. Trends of this phenomenon have also been noticed in Lithuania: in the past decades, 55 new bird species have been recorded. The recent record of a new species was done on 3 December 2019. During ordinary birds ringing carried out in Ventės Ragas Ornithological Station in Lithuania, an individual Siberian northern shrike (Lanius borealis sibiricus) was caught and ringed. Additional blood sample was collected for species confirmation. Based on identification keys and molecular mitochondrial cytochrome b analysis, we report that this is the first record of the Siberian northern shrike in Lithuania.

scholarly journals Risk to North American Birds from Climate Change-Related Threats

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brooke L. Bateman ◽  
Lotem Taylor ◽  
Chad Wilsey ◽  
Joanna Wu ◽  
Geoffrey S. LeBaron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Weather Events

AbstractClimate change is a significant threat to biodiversity globally, compounded by threats that could hinder species’ ability to respond through range shifts. However, little research has examined how future bird ranges may coincide with multiple stressors at a broad scale. Here, we assess the risk to 544 birds in the United States from future climate change threats under a mitigation-dependent global warming scenario of 1.5°C and an unmitigated scenario of 3.0°C. Threats considered included sea level rise, lake level change, human land cover conversion, and extreme weather events. We developed a gridded index of risk based on coincident threats, species richness, and richness of vulnerable species. To assign risk to individual species and habitat groups, we overlaid future bird ranges with threats to calculate the proportion of species’ ranges affected in both the breeding and non-breeding seasons. Nearly all species will face at least one new climate-related threat in each season and scenario analyzed. Even with lower species richness, the 3.0°C scenario had higher risk for species and groups in both seasons. With unmitigated climate change, multiple coincident threats will affect over 88% of the conterminous United States, and 97% of species could be affected by two or more climate-related threats. Some habitat groups will see up to 96% species facing three or more threats. However, climate change mitigation would reduce risk to birds from climate change-related threats across over 90% of the US. Across the threats included here, extreme weather events have the most significant influence on risk and the most extensive spatial coverage. Urbanization and sea level rise will also have disproportionate impacts on species relative to the area they cover. By incorporating threats into predictions of climate change impacts, this assessment provides a comprehensive picture of how climate change will affect birds and the places they need.

scholarly journals Demographic history and divergence of sibling grouse species inferred from whole genome sequencing reveal past effects of climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Song ◽  
Bin Gao ◽  
Peter Halvarsson ◽  
Yun Fang ◽  
Siegfried Klaus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Effective Population Size ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Hazel Grouse ◽  
Chinese Grouse

Abstract Background The boreal forest is one of the largest biomes on earth, supporting thousands of species. The global climate fluctuations in the Quaternary, especially the ice ages, had a significant influence on the distribution of boreal forest, as well as the divergence and evolution of species inhabiting this biome. To understand the possible effects of on-going and future climate change it would be useful to reconstruct past population size changes and relate such to climatic events in the past. We sequenced the genomes of 32 individuals from two forest inhabiting bird species, Hazel Grouse (Tetrastes bonasia) and Chinese Grouse (T. sewerzowi) and three representatives of two outgroup species from Europe and China. Results We estimated the divergence time of Chinese Grouse and Hazel Grouse to 1.76 (0.46–3.37) MYA. The demographic history of different populations in these two sibling species was reconstructed, and showed that peaks and bottlenecks of effective population size occurred at different times for the two species. The northern Qilian population of Chinese Grouse became separated from the rest of the species residing in the south approximately 250,000 years ago and have since then showed consistently lower effective population size than the southern population. The Chinese Hazel Grouse population had a higher effective population size at the peak of the Last Glacial Period (approx. 300,000 years ago) than the European population. Both species have decreased recently and now have low effective population sizes. Conclusions Combined with the uplift history and reconstructed climate change during the Quaternary, our results support that cold-adapted grouse species diverged in response to changes in the distribution of palaeo-boreal forest and the formation of the Loess Plateau. The combined effects of climate change and an increased human pressure impose major threats to the survival and conservation of both species.

scholarly journals The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 1393-1407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Titeux ◽  
Dirk Maes ◽  
Toon Van Daele ◽  
Thierry Onkelinx ◽  
Risto K. Heikkinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Data

scholarly journals Towards Modelling Future Trends of Quebec’s Boreal Birds’ Species Distribution under Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 335
Author(s):  
Jonathan Gaudreau ◽  
Liliana Perez ◽  
Saeed Harati
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Species Abundance ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Adaptation to climate change requires prediction of its impacts, especially on ecosystems. In this work we simulated the change in bird species richness in the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada, under climate change scenarios. To do so, we first analyzed which geographical and bioclimatic variables were the strongest predictors for the spatial distribution of the current resident bird species. Based on canonical redundancy analysis and analysis of variance, we found that annual temperature range, average temperature of the cold season, seasonality of precipitation, precipitation in the wettest season, elevation, and local percentage of wet area had the strongest influence on the species’ distributions. We used these variables with Random Forests, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Maximum Entropy models to explain spatial variations in species abundance. Future species distributions were calculated by replacing present climatic variables with projections under different climate change pathways. Subsequently, maps of species richness change were produced. The results showed a northward expansion of areas of highest species richness towards the center of the province. Species are also likely to appear near James Bay and Ungava Bay, where rapid climate change is expected.

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