Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows

1988 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enzo R. Grilli ◽  
Maw Cheng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Primary Commodity ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Manufactured Goods

A Note on the Structure of Pakistan's Foreign Trade (Notes & Comments)

1969 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph J. Stern
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Primary Commodity ◽  
Primary Products ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact

Developing countries generally are not only concerned with the level of their export earnings but also with the commodity and geographic composition of exports, and, to a lesser extent, of imports. Concern over a high degree of commo¬dity structure in exports is usually based on its presumed association with adverse price movements. A more diversified export commodity structure will reduce the impact on the overall level of foreign-exchange earnings from price fluctuations in any particular commodity. While concentration on a few commodities need not be identified with being a primary commodity exporter, for many developing countries a high degree of commodity concentration is often correlated with the exports of primary commodities [6 ; 9]. The familiar terms-of-trade argument, the belief that the relative price of primary commodity exports will fall, over the long run, as compared to the price of industrial goods imports, provides a second rationale for seeking a diversification in the composition of exports. Even in the short run the prices of most primary products in interna¬tional trade vary more sharply from year to year than those of most industrial products thus providing an additional incentive for decreasing commodity con¬centration [5].

The Determinants of Long-run Real Exchange Rate in South Africa: A Fundamental Equilibrium Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Njindan Iyke ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run

In this paper, we identify the fundamental determinants of the long-run exchange rate in South Africa. We then estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for this country using a dataset covering the period 1975–2012. In order to account for possible short-run fluctuations in the real exchange rate, we conducted a cointegration test using the ARDL bounds testing procedure. First, we found terms of trade, trade openness, government consumption, net foreign assets and real commodity prices to be the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa. Second, we found that nearly 68.06% of the real exchange-rate disequilibrium is corrected annually. Overall, the estimated equilibrium rate indicates that the Rand has been depreciating in real terms over the years. Tightening trade openness is not an option, given international agreements; on the other hand, terms of trade and real commodity prices are determined by the world market. The obvious policy alternative is for South Africa to increase government spending and moderately decrease her net foreign asset position.

scholarly journals Review of the Terms of Trade in Selected Countries and Iran

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 75-78
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kazem Naziri ◽  
Morteza Nemati ◽  
Hadi Darabi ◽  
Ghasem Raisi
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Economic Welfare ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Income Gap ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
The Relationship

Nowadays the terms of trade have great importance for developing countries compared to developed countries. Because worsening terms of trade, that all other conditions are constant, reduces economic welfare. It is believed that the decline in the terms of trade of developing countries to developed countries causes the transfer of income from developing countries to developed countries and increases the income gap between these two groups of countries. This paper aims to examine the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis in different countries. The study examines the relationship between net terms of trade and income terms of trade between oil -exporting developing countries, agricultural commodities exporting developing countries and developed countries exporter of manufactured goods as well as the terms of trade of Iran in 1980-2010. Prebisch-Singer hypothesis states about changes in net terms of trade that this variable, changes to the detriment of developing countries and primary commodities exporter (other than oil and agricultural commodities) and to the benefit of developed countries exporter of manufactured goods.

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