scholarly journals Correlation of the epidemic spread of COVID-19 and urban population migration in the major cities of Hubei Province, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qun Chen ◽  
Jiao Yan ◽  
Helai Huang ◽  
Xi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Weak Correlation ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This study analyses the relationship between the epidemic spread of COVID-19 and urban population migration in Hubei Province, China. Based on an improved gravity model, the population inflow numbers for each city from 10 January to 23 February are estimated. A correlation analysis is done to reveal the impact of population inflow on the number of infected people in the 14 days after 23 January, the day Wuhan was locked down. The results show that: (i) the population outflow from Wuhan was mostly distributed between Xiaogan, Huanggang, Ezhou and Huangshi in Hubei Province; (ii) the number of accumulated confirmed patients is closely associated with inflows from Wuhan, which displayed by correlation coefficient 1 with a mean of 0.88 and a maximum of 0.93. Meanwhile, there is a weak correlation between the number of people that came from cities except Wuhan and accumulated confirmed patients, which indicated by correlation coefficient 2 with a mean of 0.65 and a maximum of 0.75; and (iii) the total population inflow is a greater predictor of epidemic spread than the population inflow from Wuhan.

scholarly journals Building a modification of the SEIRD model of epidemic spread that takes into account the features of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-27
Author(s):  
Нина Игоревна Еремеева
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Relative Number ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Статья посвящена построению математической модели SEIIRDm, учитывающей некоторые особенности распространения COVID-19. Представляемая модель построена на основе классической SEIRD-модели распространения эпидемий. В созданной модели, в отличие от базовой, учитывается то, что латентные носители COVID-19 являются в некоторой степени заразными, и что у существенного количества инфицированных болезнь протекает бессимптомно. В SEIIRDm-модели отражен тот факт, что выявленные больные изолируются (госпитализируются) и вероятность заражения от них резко уменьшается, а также, что карантинные меры имеют массовый характер, причем важна как степень их жесткости, так и момент введения. Кроме того, в статье обращается внимание на то, что зависимость между скоростью изменения относительного числа заболевших и относительным количеством заразных и восприимчивых может быть нелинейной, и этот факт отражен в построенной модели. Статья содержит примеры численного прогнозирования развития эпидемиологического процесса, а также моделирования влияния массовых карантинных мер, рассчитанные на основе созданной математической модели. The article is devoted to the construction of a mathematical model that takes into account some features of COVID-19 propagation. The presented model is based on the classic SEIRD epidemic distribution model. The created model, in contrast to the basic one, takes into account the fact that latent COVIND-19 carriers are somewhat contagious and that in a significant number of infected people, the disease is asymptomatic. The SEIIRDm model reflects the fact that identified patients are isolating (hospitalizing) and the probability of infection from them decreases sharply and also that the measures taken over the quarantine are massive moreover, both the degree of their rigidity and the moment of introduction are important. Besides, the article draws attention to the fact that the relationship between the rate of change in the relative number of cases and susceptible and the relative number of infected may be nonlinear, and this fact is reflected in the built model. The article provides examples of numerical forecasting of the development of the epidemiological process as well as modeling the impact of mass quarantine measures, calculated on the basis of the created mathematical model.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Government Expenditures on Education and Economic Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Ilkin Mammadov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Educational Investment ◽  
Concerted Effort ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the impact of government’s education expenditures, gross capital formation and total population on economic growth in Azerbaijan during 1995-2018 using the different cointegration methods, namely, ARDLBT, DOLS, and CCR. The results from cointegration methods approve presence of long-run relationship among the variables. The estimation results show that government’s expenditures on education, gross capital formation and total population have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth in the long-run. The paper concludes that a concerted effort should be made by policy makers to increase educational investment in order to escelate economic growth.

scholarly journals The influence of tourism development on the economic structure of the population of Belgrade

2020 ◽  
pp. 23-36
Author(s):  
Marko Sedlak ◽  
Dejan Šabić ◽  
Snežana Vujadinović
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Strong Connection ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
Methodological Procedures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The City

The paper analyzed the impact of tourism development on changes in the employed population in the service sectors by individual activities. The aim of this paper is to point out the relationship between changes in the number of tourists and changes in the number of employed population in service activities. The area of research is limited to the territory of the city of Belgrade. It cover an area of 3.223km2 . The basic methodological procedures used for research are mathematical - statistical methods: Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), testing the significance of the correlation coefficient (t test) and causal relationship (R). By applying the mentioned methods, a strong connection has been established between the growth of tourist traffic and the growth of the number of employed population in the service delivery activities on the territory of Belgrade.

scholarly journals The nexus between the economic growth and unemployment in Jordan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hala Hjazeen ◽  
Mehdi Seraj ◽  
Huseyin Ozdeser
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of unemployment on Jordan's economy over the period 1991–2019. This study used the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to investigate the relationship between the unemployment rate and the other variables. Also, we employ the ARDL bootstrap cointegration approach to examine the correlation and long-run relationship among the variables. The empirical finding indicated a long-run relationship between the unemployment rate, economic growth, education, female population, and urban population in Jordan. Our finding shows the negative linkage between economic growth and unemployment, and a positive relationship among the education, female population, and urban population and unemployment in Jordan.

scholarly journals Analysis of residents' travel characteristics along Beijing rail transit line based on binary choice model

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 19-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaoyang Cai ◽  
Jianwei Yan
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Urban Transportation ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Binary Choice ◽  
Rail Transit ◽  
Compact City ◽  
Binary Choice Model ◽  
The Relationship

From ancient to modern times, in the historical process of urban development, urban transportation has been developing along with the development of the city's political, economic and cultural industries, and the relationship between each other has always been a topic constantly discussed by planning scholars. The development of urban transportation promotes the urban population gathering and industrial development, and promotes the development of urban geographical space. At the same time, it also brings endless convenience to urban residents, so that they can complete the displacement from the beginning to the destination with relatively low cost. However, with the rapid development of urban scale and the rapid growth of urban population, the problems of traffic congestion and land resource shortage in big cities of China seriously restrict the improvement of the quality of life of residents and the further development of the city. In this context, compact city is the inevitable choice for future urban development, while the transportation system supporting compact city form can only be public transportation. As a high-volume, efficient and rapid public transport mode, rail transit can not only solve the traffic congestion problem in high-density areas of cities, but also optimize the development and utilization of urban land and adjust the urban spatial layout, which is of great significance for the sustainable development of cities. The network of rail transit in Beijing becomes the backbone of public passenger transport system, and play an irreplaceable role in guiding the urban space layout adjustment, population migration and the transformation of traffic structure. The study of travel characteristics of the residents who live along the rail transit, in-depth analysis the relationship of the rail transit, the population migration and commuter travel, it is of great significance providing decision support for urban planning. Based on binary choice model, establishing the residents' travel choice model, rail transit impact model of different crowds. Study the relationship between rail transit and residents' travel characteristics, predict the rail transit to guide the trend of population migration.

scholarly journals Population migration, spread of COVID-19, and epidemic prevention and control: empirical evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Yuanyang Wu ◽  
Mohan Su ◽  
Lin Xie ◽  
Anqi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background This study applied the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Methods The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission. Results This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that the combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media were important routes affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then controlling population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration. Conclusions This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.

scholarly journals Population migration, spread of COVID-19, and epidemic prevention and control: empirical evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Yuanyang Wu ◽  
Hualei Yang ◽  
Xie Lin ◽  
Anqi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: This study applied the SEIR model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Methods: The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission.Results: This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that a combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media was an important route affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then stemming population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration. Conclusions: This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.

scholarly journals Population migration, spread of COVID-19, and epidemic prevention and control: empirical evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Yuanyang Wu ◽  
Hualei Yang ◽  
Xie Lin ◽  
Anqi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: This study applied the SEIR model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Methods: The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission.Results: This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that a combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media was an important route affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then stemming population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration. Conclusions: This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.

scholarly journals EQUITY MANAGEMENT OF THE TOURISM SECTOR ENTERPRISES IN THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC

2020 ◽  
pp. 147-166
Author(s):  
Katarína Tasáryová ◽  
◽  
Renáta Pakšiová ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Equity Management ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Since its expansion at the beginning of the 20th century, tourism has shown its strength and importance. Tourism is a link between several economic sectors, thanks to its accumulated development potential. One of the main goals of business entities from the financial point of view is to achieve profit. The second is the maximize the value of the company, which can be affected by the achievement of profit. Companies operating in the field of tourism in the Slovak Republic are no exception. The chapter deals with the analysis of their equity, including its individual items with an emphasis on the going concern. Using Pearson’s correlation coefficient, we identify the relationship between equity and its individual items. The aim of the chapter is, based on indebtedness indicators, specifically total indebtedness and the degree of self-financing to assess the adequacy of own resources needed to finance its activities in this sector in the Slovak Republic, while marginally analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector in Slovakia.

scholarly journals Online learning and students' mo A research study on the effect of online learning and students' motivation in IAIN Padangsidimpuan

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 09-16
Author(s):  
Sri minda Nasution
Keyword(s):  
Online Learning ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Weak Correlation ◽  
State Institute ◽  
Language Program ◽  
Islamic Studies ◽  
The Relationship

An investigation was carried out to determine the strength of the relationship between online-learning and students’ motivation among  the students who participated in this research. The objective of the research is to know whether online learning can increase the students’ motivation or not This research was conducted in State Institute for Islamic Studies Padangsidimpuan in which 100 students took part as the samples of the research. The samples of this research were the students in Intensive Language Program IAIN Padangsidimpuan. Questionnaire was applied to access the data from the students participating in this process. The data was stattistically computed by using Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The findings of this research proved that online-learning and students’ motivation have a weak correlation. Using Pearson Correlation Coefficient it was found that r=0.156 is lower than r table = 0.5.  This internet-based learning poorly affected the students’ willingness to learn. The students were demotivated when they have to learn through online. As a matter of fact, motivation is the most essential element in influencing the students in learning virtually. This is happened because of several reasons including lack of technology skill, poor online learning designing, money and time consuming, and the inadequate internet access.

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