scholarly journals Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes

2018 ◽  
Vol 86 (5) ◽  
pp. 2035-2091 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Dustmann ◽  
Kristine Vasiljeva ◽  
Anna Piil Damm

Abstract To estimate the causal effect of refugee migration on voting outcomes in parliamentary and municipal elections in Denmark, our study is the first that addresses the key problem of immigrant sorting by exploiting a policy that assigned refugee immigrants to municipalities on a quasi-random basis. We find that in all but the most urban municipalities, allocation of larger refugee shares between electoral cycles leads to an increase in the vote share for right-leaning parties with an anti-immigration agenda, and we show large differences in voters’ responses to refugee allocation according to pre-policy municipal characteristics. However, in the largest and urban municipalities, refugee allocation has—if anything—the opposite effect on vote shares for anti-immigration parties. This coincides with a sharp divide in attitudes to refugees between urban and rural populations, which may be partly explained by distinctive interactions between natives and those with different background in cities and rural areas. Refugee allocation also has a large impact on the anti-immigration parties’ choice of where to stand for municipal election, and we provide some evidence that it influences voter turnout.

2021 ◽  
pp. 107808742110311
Author(s):  
Scott Matthews ◽  
R. Michael McGregor ◽  
Laura B. Stephenson

Since Angus Campbell and colleagues first introduced the “levels of conceptualization” (LoC) framework as a measure of political sophistication, a number of scholars have applied the approach to subsequent American national elections. In this study, we present the first application of the LoC framework to a municipal election, and focus upon the 2018 Toronto mayoral race. After describing the method and data we use to adapt the framework to this new context, we replicate previous analyses, and find that LoC is related to local voter turnout and several measures of political sophistication. We then consider the question of whether major candidates were discussed at different LoC, and if their supporters view local politics at different LoC. We conclude by making the case that the LoC framework is helpful for resolving the debate over whether local politics are ideological or managerial in nature.


2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS G. HANSFORD ◽  
BRAD T. GOMEZ

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.


2021 ◽  
pp. 003232922110507
Author(s):  
Gillian Slee ◽  
Matthew Desmond

In recent years, housing costs have outpaced incomes in the United States, resulting in millions of eviction filings each year. Yet no study has examined the link between eviction and voting. Drawing on a novel data set that combines tens of millions of eviction and voting records, this article finds that residential eviction rates negatively impacted voter turnout during the 2016 presidential election. Results from a generalized additive model show eviction’s effect on voter turnout to be strongest in neighborhoods with relatively low rates of displacement. To address endogeneity bias and estimate the causal effect of eviction on voting, the analysis treats commercial evictions as an instrument for residential evictions, finding that increases in neighborhood eviction rates led to substantial declines in voter turnout. This study demonstrates that the impact of eviction reverberates far beyond housing loss, affecting democratic participation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-431
Author(s):  
María Vallejo ◽  
Maribel Caicedo

We take the concept of the economics of deforestation to analyse the consumption of firewood in Ecuador during 2018. We identify poor rural populations as being at risk, since the incomplete burning of firewood generates emissions of CO2 that can reach levels that are harmful to their health. We calculate that 95% of the impacts associated with the consumption of firewood are concentrated in rural areas, most of them in poverty conditions: the deforestation of 5,935 hectares, the emission of 1,317.38 Gg of CO2 and 94.58 Gg of CO due to the consumption of 782.08 Gg of firewood. We suggest an energy policy based on solidarity to reduce health risks for these communities, which in turn will enable other impacts to be mitigated. However, it will be necessary to include specific policies for commercial, industrial and productive uses of firewood, where about 65% of firewood consumption and its impacts are concentrated.


1987 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peverill Squire ◽  
Raymond E. Wolfinger ◽  
David P. Glass

We examine the characteristics of a largely ignored low-turnout group—people who have recently moved. We find that neither demographic nor attitudinal attributes explain their lower turnout. Instead, the requirement that citizens must register anew after each change in residence constitutes the key stumbling block in the trip to the polls. Since nearly one-third of the nation moves every two years, moving has a large impact on national turnout rates. We offer a proposal to reduce the effect of residential mobility on turnout and estimate that turnout would increase by nine percentage points if the impact of moving could be removed. The partisan consequences of such a change would be marginal.


2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 678-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
SACHA KAPOOR ◽  
ARVIND MAGESAN

We estimate the causal effect of independent candidates on voter turnout and election outcomes in India. To do this, we exploit exogenous changes in the entry deposit candidates pay for their participation in the political process, changes that disproportionately excluded candidates with no affiliation to established political parties. A one standard deviation increase in the number of independent candidates increases voter turnout by more than 6 percentage points, as some voters choose to vote rather than stay home. The vote share of independent candidates increases by more than 10 percentage points, as some existing voters switch who they vote for. Thus, independents allow winning candidates to win with less vote share, decrease the probability of electing a candidate from the governing coalition by about 31 percentage points, and ultimately increase the probability of electing an ethnic-party candidate. Altogether, the results imply that the price of participation by independents is constituency representation in government.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 264
Author(s):  
Patricia Maria Uchôa SIMÕES ◽  
Mariana Uchôa Simões BARBOSA

RESUMONo Brasil, a história da educação institucionalizada dos bebês inicia-se com instituições voltadas para o atendimento das populações mais pobres das cidades e está relacionada à industrialização e urbanização. Essa origem explica, em parte, a escassa oferta de Educação Infantil para as populações rurais, até hoje. O estudo debate a trajetória das creches das zonas rurais, analisa alguns dos indicadores educacionais e dados da implantação do Proinfância nessas áreas. As conclusões apontam para os avanços na legislação e a melhoria dos indicadores educacionais nas primeiras décadas desse século, também apresenta o Proinfância como uma alternativa para as zonas rurais, com a oferta de apoio aos municípios na construção de políticas de inclusão dos bebês em creche com maior qualidade de atendimento. Faz-se necessário a afirmação desses bebês como sujeitos de direitos, da sua educação como condição de cidadania e da especificidade da creche nas zonas rurais como direito à diferença.Bebês. Creche. Educação Infantil do Campo. Babies in daycare centers in rural BrazilABSTRACT In Brazil, the history of institutionalized baby education begins with institutions aimed at serving the poorest populations in cities and is related to industrialization and urbanization. This origin explains, in part, the scarce offer of Early Childhood Education for rural populations, even today. The study debates the trajectory of daycare centers in rural areas, analyzes some of the educational indicators and data on the implementation of Proinfância in these areas. The conclusions point to advances in legislation and the improvement of educational indicators in the first decades of this century, it also presents Proinfância as an alternative for rural areas, with the offer of support to municipalities in the construction of policies for the inclusion of babies in daycare centers with higher quality of care. It is necessary to affirm these babies as subjects of rights, their education as a condition of citizenship and the specificity of daycare in rural areas as the right to difference.Babies. Nursery. Rural Early Childhood Education. Bebés en guarderías en zonas rurales de BrasilRESUMEN En Brasil, la historia de la educación institucionalizada de bebes comienza con instituciones destinadas a servir a las poblaciones más pobres de las ciudades y está relacionada con la industrialización y la urbanización. Este origen explica, en parte, la escasa oferta de educación de la primera infancia para las poblaciones rurales, incluso hoy en día. El estudio debate la trayectoria de las guarderías en áreas rurales, analiza algunos de los indicadores educacionales y los datos sobre la implementación de “Proinfância” en estas áreas. Las conclusiones apuntan a avances en la legislación y la mejora de los indicadores educacionales en las primeras décadas de este siglo, también presenta a “Proinfância” como una alternativa para las zonas rurales, ofreciendo apoyo a los municipios en la construcción de políticas para la inclusión de bebés en guarderías con mejor calidad de cuidado. Es necesario afirmar que estos bebés son sujetos de derechos, su educación debe ser entendida como condición de ciudadanía y la especificidad de la guardería en las zonas rurales como un derecho a la diferencia.Bebés. Guardería. Educación de la primera infancia rural. Bambini in asili nele aree rurali del BrasileSINTESEIn Brasile, la storia dell'educazione al bambino istituzionalizzata inizia con istituzioni progettate per servire le popolazioni più povere delle città ed è legata all'industrializzazione e all'urbanizzazione. Questa origine spiega, in parte, l'offerta limitata di educazione della prima infanzia per le popolazioni rurali, anche oggi. Lo studio discute la traiettoria degli asili nelle aree rurali, analizza alcuni degli indicatori e dati educativi sull'attuazione di "Proinfância" in queste aree. Le conclusioni indicano i progressi della legislazione e il miglioramento degli indicatori educativi nei primi decenni di questo secolo, inoltre presenta "Proinfância" come alternativa alle aree rurali, offrendo supporto ai comuni nella costruzione di politiche per l'inclusione dei bambini negli asili nido con una migliore qualità delle cure. È necessario affermare che questi bambini sono soggetti di diritti, la loro educazione deve essere intesa come una condizione di cittadinanza e la specificità dell'assistenza all'infanzia nelle aree rurali come un diritto alla differenza.


2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (No. 12) ◽  
pp. 575-581
Author(s):  
J. Čmejrek

The objective of this paper is to show the mediation between citizens and political power by political parties in Czech rural areas. The position of political parties in rural municipalities is demonstrated in two perspectives. The top-down perspective is based on the distribution of several tens of thousands mandates in local municipal councils between political parties. The opposite perspective provides the bottom-up point of view – from the level of the individual municipalities, their party systems and party organisational structures. The analysis of the municipal election results reveals clearly that the role of political parties in local politics depends namely on the size of the given municipality. In this sense, the Czech Republic represents a very interesting example as it is characterised by a dense and heavily fragmented population settlement with a large number of small rural municipalities. In rural municipalities, we encounter incomplete party spectra and the absence of political parties in the smallest municipalities. Besides, the lists of candidates in rural municipalities reveal the weakness of the local party organisations that cannot avoid cooperating with the independent candidates. The small distance between the citizen and the elected body in a rural community significantly determines the forms of the local politics; the ideological and party mediation is superfluous, in fact, it is often seen as something harmful which divides the rural community.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-206
Author(s):  
Maarit Sireni

AbstractDrawing on an empirical analysis of Finnish local policy-makers’ views on land use planning aims in rural areas, this paper investigates local responses to the new national planning regulations set out by the Government. According to the new norms, a dense settlement structure should be promoted not only in urban centres but also in rural areas in order to curb climate change and improve the viability of communities. Based on the data obtained from an internet-based survey conducted by a regional newspaper in western Finland before municipal elections in 2008 and 2012, this paper shows that the majority of the local policy-makers challenge the new norms. They do not believe that sustainable development can be promoted by constraining building rights in the rural region characterised by a dispersed settlement structure.


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