scholarly journals Review of 'An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling'

2011 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-329
Author(s):  
B. Mason
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Modelling

scholarly journals Providing laypeople with results from dynamic infectious disease modelling studies affects their allocation preference for scarce medical resources—a factorial experiment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Rübsamen ◽  
Benno Garcia Voges ◽  
Stefanie Castell ◽  
Carolina Judith Klett-Tammen ◽  
Jérôme Oppliger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Factorial Experiment ◽  
Disease Modelling ◽  
Allocation Scheme ◽  
Transmitted Infection ◽  
Medical Resources ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Modelling Studies

Abstract BackgroundAllocation of scarce medical resources can be based on different principles. It has not yet been investigated which allocation schemes are preferred by medical laypeople in a particular situation of medical scarcity like an emerging infectious disease and how the choices are affected by providing information about expected population-level effects of the allocation scheme based on modelling studies.MethodsIn a two-way factorial experiment (n = 878 participants), we investigated if prognosis of the disease or information about expected effects on mortality at population-level (based on dynamic infectious disease modelling studies) influenced the choice of preferred allocation schemes for prevention and treatment of an unspecified sexually transmitted infection. A qualitative analysis of the reasons for choosing specific allocation schemes supplements our results.ResultsPresence of the factor “information about the population-level effects of the allocation scheme” substantially increased the probability of choosing a resource allocation system that minimized overall harm among the population, while prognosis did not affect allocation choices. The main reasons for choosing an allocation scheme differed among schemes, but did not differ among those who received additional model-based information on expected population-level effects and those who did not.ConclusionsProviding information on the expected population-level effects from dynamic infectious disease modelling studies resulted in a substantially different choice of allocation schemes. This finding supports the importance of incorporating model-based information in decision-making processes and communication strategies.

scholarly journals Triple contagion: a two-fears epidemic model

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (181) ◽  
pp. 20210186
Author(s):  
Joshua M. Epstein ◽  
Erez Hatna ◽  
Jennifer Crodelle
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Differential Equations ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Fear Learning ◽  
Disease Modelling ◽  
Behavioural Adaptation ◽  
Contagious Disease ◽  
Behavioural Dynamics

We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears evolve and interact in ways that shape distancing behaviour, vaccine uptake, and their relaxation. These behavioural dynamics in turn can amplify or suppress disease transmission, which feeds back to affect behaviour. The model reveals several coupled contagion mechanisms for multiple epidemic waves. Methodologically, the paper advances infectious disease modelling by including human behavioural adaptation, drawing on the neuroscience of fear learning, extinction and transmission.

scholarly journals A STUDY ON MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL SIMULATION APPLIED TO COVID19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAYDIP DATTA
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Gaussian Distribution ◽  
Statistical Simulation ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Disease Modelling ◽  
Mortality Statistics ◽  
Molecular Bonding

In this combinatorial study let us try to simulate the four cases starting from viral spreading kinetics ,Gaussian distribution of the infectious disease , modelling of remdesivir on the basis of molecular bonding approach and finally the most important mortality statistics like infection fatality ratio ( IFR ) with the distribution of age of the patient through sigmoid regression method .

scholarly journals Editorial: Infectious Disease Modelling

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Simpson ◽  
Geoffry N. Mercer
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Modelling
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