scholarly journals 615. Overlooking those at Intermediate Risk? ASCVD Prevention Measures among People Living with HIV at an Urban Academic Medical Center

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S367-S368
Author(s):  
Mark Liotta ◽  
Peter Cangialosi ◽  
Jeanne Ho ◽  
Diana Finkel ◽  
Shobha Swaminathan ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The American College of Cardiology (ACC) recognizes HIV as a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, 2019 guidelines do not address people living with HIV (PLWH), aside from stating that their Risk Estimator Plus tool, which is used to calculate a 10-year risk for ASCVD and advise management, likely underestimates CVD risk in PLWH. This quality assessment project examines rates of ACC guideline adherence for ASCVD prevention for PLWH who have calculated risk scores in the low (< 7.5%), intermediate (> 7.5% & < 20%), and high-risk (> 20%) ranges. Patients analyzed are from an HIV registry of University Hospital Infectious Disease Outpatient clinic in Newark, NJ. The clinic’s 2451 total patients are 40% female, 63% non-Hispanic black, 23% Hispanic, and 64% > 45 years old. Methods This project was approved by the Rutgers IRB. Patients (40-79 years) with a clinic visit from 2/1/2019 to 1/31/2020 were reviewed. ASCVD risk scores were calculated using the Risk Estimator Plus for all patients when data was available. Guideline adherence rate was defined as following 2019 ACC guidelines for appropriate statin therapy, while considering medication interactions. Results Of the 1127 patients who met criteria, 744 ASCVD risk scores were calculated. Lipid values outside the calculator range (229) or no documented lipids (154) resulted in non-calculatable scores. Guideline adherence rate for the intermediate-risk group was significantly less than the high-risk and low-risk groups (P< 0.05): low-risk 92.8% (95% CI 90.0-95.1, n=346), intermediate-risk 35.2% (95% CI 29.7-41.1, n=270), and high-risk 52.3% (95% CI 43.8-60.8, n=128). Adherence rates within the intermediate-risk group for patients with hypertension (HTN) and smokers were significantly less than those with CVD (P< 0.05). Table 1: Patients with Calculated ASCVD Risk Score > 20 for PLWH from 2/1/2019 – 1/31/2020 Table 2: Patients with Calculated ASCVD Risk Score > 7.5 & < 20 for PLWH from 2/1/2019 – 1/31/2020 Table 3: Patients with Calculated ASCVD Risk Score < 7.5 for PLWH from 2/1/2019 – 1/31/2020 Conclusion Lower overall guideline adherence rates within the intermediate risk group, and particularly among those with a history of HTN and smoking, highlights the need for targeted care. Provider education on the calculation and application of ASCVD risk scores, as well as increased awareness of the risk-enhancing nature of HIV infection in coexistence with the traditional risk factors of CVD history, diabetes, HTN, and smoking are important steps to increase adherence rates. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoqing Yin ◽  
Fuad A. Abdu ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Siling Xu ◽  
Bin Xu ◽  
...  

Myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries (MINOCA) is a special type of myocardial infarction (MI). The GRACE risk score is commonly used to predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients, and the suitability of the GRACE risk score for prognostic stratification in patients with MINOCA remains uncertain. This study aimed to investigate whether the GRACE risk score is capable of predicting MACE in MINOCA patients with NSTE. We calculated the GRACE risk score for 340 consecutive MINOCA patients with NSTE. Patients were divided into a low-intermediate risk group (≤ 140, 48.8%) and a high risk group (>140, 51.2%) according to their GRACE risk scores. The clinical characteristics and outcomes of the patients were assessed. Patients in the high risk group tended to be older and to have more comorbidities. At the 1-year follow-up, the rate of cardiac death in the high risk group was significantly higher than that in the low-intermediate-risk group (p = 0.010). There was no significant difference in non-fatal MI, stroke, heart failure, or cardiovascular-related rehospitalization. The incidence of total MACE was significantly higher in patients with high GRACE risk scores than in patients with low GRACE risk scores (p = 0.006). ROC curve analysis showed that the GRACE risk score has moderate value in predicting MACE in NSTE-MINOCA patients. The area under the ROC curve was 0.710 (95% CI 0.625–0.796, P < 0.001). The GRACE risk score provides potentially valuable prognostic information on clinical outcome when applied to MINOCA patients with NSTE.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chia Goh ◽  
Henry Mwandumba ◽  
Alicja Rapala ◽  
Willard Tingao ◽  
Irene Sheha ◽  
...  

HIV is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Despite the high prevalence of HIV in low income subSaharan Africa, there are few data on the assessment of CVD risk in the region. In this study, we aimed to compare the utility of existing CVD risk scores in a cohort of Malawian adults, and assess to what extent they correlate with established markers of endothelial damage: carotid intima media thickness (IMT) and pulse wave velocity (PWV). WHO/ISH, SCORE, FRS, ASCVD, QRISK2 and D:A:D scores were calculated for 279 Malawian adults presenting with HIV and low CD4. Correlation of the calculated 10year CVD risk score with IMT and PWV was assessed using Spearmans rho. The median (IQR) age of patients was 37 (31 to 43) years and 122 (44%) were female. Median (IQR) blood pressure was 120/73mmHg (108/68 to 128/80) and 88 (32%) study participants had a new diagnosis of hypertension. The FRS and QRISK2 scores included the largest number of participants in this cohort (96% and 100% respectively). D:A:D, a risk score specific for people living with HIV, identified more patients in moderate and high risk groups. Although all scores correlated well with physiological markers of endothelial damage, FRS and QRISK2 correlated most closely with both IMT [r2 0.51, p<0.0001 and r2 0.47, p<0.0001 respectively] and PWV [r2 0.47, p<0.0001 and r2 0.5, p<0.0001 respectively]. Larger cohort studies are required to adapt and validate risk prediction scores in this region, so that limited healthcare resources can be effectively targeted.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4718-4718
Author(s):  
Afsaneh M. Shariatpanahi ◽  
Sarah Grasedieck ◽  
Matthew C. Jarvis ◽  
Faezeh Borzooee ◽  
Reuben S. Harris ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The prognosis of MM is determined by affected organs, tumor burden as measured by e.g., the international staging system (ISS), disease biology such as cytogenetic abnormalities, and response to therapy. The outcome of high-risk MM patients classified by ISS or adverse risk cytogenetics is not uniform and patients show heterogeneous survival. Recent insights into the pathogenesis of MM highlighted genome/transcriptome editing as well as inflammation as drivers for the onset and progression of MM. We hypothesized that inclusion of molecular features into risk stratification could potentially resolve the challenge of accurately distinguishing between high-risk and low-risk MM patients at initial diagnosis and improve outcome. Aim: We aimed to create a simple molecular risk score to identify unrecognized patient subgroups, who have been previously misclassified by current risk stratifiers. Method: The Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation CoMMpass study genomics dataset, combining mRNA Seq and clinical data from more than 700 MM patients, allowed us to evaluate the prognostic value of demographic and clinical parameters, cytogenetics, and gene expression levels of APOBEC genes as well as inflammation-modulating cytokines in MM patients. We calculated hazard ratios and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for all extracted features. Combining clinical variables that were significantly associated with PFS and OS, we then applied machine learning approaches to identify the most accurate classification model to define a new risk score that is easy to compute and able to stratify NDMM patients more accurately than cytogenetics-based classifiers. Based on a Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis, we then evaluated the performance of our newly built EI score in sub-classifying of current multiple myeloma risk stratifiers. Results: Based on machine learning models, we defined a weighted OS/PFS risk score (Editor-Inflammation (EI) score) based on mRNA expression of APOBEC2, APOBEC3B, IL11, TGFB1, TGFB3, as well as ß2-microglobulin and LDH serum levels. We showed that the EI score subclassified patients into high-risk, intermediate-risk, and low-risk prognostic groups and demonstrated superior performance (C-index: 0.76) compared to ISS (C-index: 0.66) and R-ISS (C-index: 0.64). We further showed that EI low-risk patients do not benefit from autograft and maintenance therapy. Re-classification of ISS (Figure 1a, b, c) and R-ISS risk groups further confirmed the superiority of the EI score. In addition, the EI score identified previously unrecognized distinct subgroups of MM patients with adverse risk cytogenetics but good prognosis (Figure 1d, e, f). For example, the EI score excellently subclassified del(17p) MM patients into three main risk subgroups including a super low-risk group (none of them has p53 mut) with 5-year OS of 100%, an intermediate-risk group (30% of these patients also have p53 mut) with 5-year OS rate of 75%, and a very poor prognosis group of patients (40% of these patients also have p53 mut) with 5-year OS rate of 0% (2y OS: 40%) (Figure 1f). In line, we could show that patients with del(17p) and high EI score exhibit an enrichment of APOBEC induced genomic mutations compared to intermediate-risk and low-risk patients supporting the hypothesis that del(17p) along with high APOBEC expression levels activate the APOBEC mutation program and thus create an optimal environment for tumor progression. These findings support the necessity of a prognostic score that more accurately reflects MM disease biology. Conclusion: Although MM is considered as an incurable disease, an improved risk stratification could help to identify previously unrecognized low- and high-risk patient subgroups that are over- or undertreated and lead to improved outcomes. Our EI score is a simple score that is based on recent insights into MM biology and accurately identifies high-risk and low-risk newly diagnosed MM patients as well as misclassified MM patients in different cytogenetic and ISS risk subgroups. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2017 ◽  
Vol 126 (5) ◽  
pp. 382-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Soo Chang ◽  
Ji Eun Choi ◽  
Jungmin Ahn ◽  
Nam-Gyu Ryu ◽  
Il Joon Moon ◽  
...  

Objectives/Hypothesis: Predicting the prognosis of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSHL) remains challenging. This investigation aimed to apply Framingham Risk Scores (FRS) to assess the combination of prognostic factors following ISSHL and investigate the predictive role of FRS in patients with multiple comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia. Study design: Retrospective study. Methods: Twenty-one patients presenting with unilateral idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss and multiple comorbidities were surveyed. Framingham Risk Score was calculated, and patients were assigned into high-risk (FRS ≥20%) and low-risk (FRS <20%) groups. Mean pure tone audiometry (PTA) threshold of both groups and hearing outcomes following established criteria were investigated. All patients were treated with the same protocol of oral methylprednisolone. Results: Overall successful recovery rate (complete + marked recovery) was 23.81%. The mean PTA threshold of the low-risk group showed significant improvement (mean PTA ± standard error, SE: pretreatment, 73.23 ± 11.80; posttreatment, 54.89 ± 10.25, P = .002), while the high-risk group did not show significant improvement in mean PTA threshold (mean PTA ± SE: pretreatment, 71.94 ± 11.77; posttreatment, 68.89 ± 12.81, P = .73). Conclusion: Framingham Risk Scores may be useful in predicting outcomes for ISSHL patients with multiple comorbidities.


Author(s):  
Tze‐Fan Chao ◽  
Chern‐En Chiang ◽  
Tzeng‐Ji Chen ◽  
Jo‐Nan Liao ◽  
Ta‐Chuan Tuan ◽  
...  

Background Although several risk schemes have been proposed to predict new‐onset atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical prediction models specific for Asian patients were limited. In the present study, we aimed to develop a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score) for AF prediction using the whole Taiwan population database with a long‐term follow‐up. Methods and Results Among 7 220 654 individuals aged ≥40 years without a past history of cardiac arrhythmia identified from the Taiwan Health Insurance Research Database, 438 930 incident AFs occurred after a 16‐year follow‐up. Clinical risk factors of AF were identified using Cox regression analysis and then combined into a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score). The Taiwan AF score included age, male sex, and important comorbidities (hypertension, heart failure, coronary artery disease, end‐stage renal disease, and alcoholism) and ranged from −2 to 15. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Taiwan AF scores in the predictions of AF are 0.857 for the 1‐year follow‐up, 0.825 for the 5‐year follow‐up, 0.797 for the 10‐year follow‐up, and 0.756 for the 16‐year follow‐up. The annual risks of incident AF were 0.21%/year, 1.31%/year, and 3.37%/year for the low‐risk (score −2 to 3), intermediate‐risk (score 4 to 9), and high‐risk (score ≥10) groups, respectively. Compared with low‐risk patients, the hazard ratios of incident AF were 5.78 (95% CI, 3.76–7.75) for the intermediate‐risk group and 8.94 (95% CI, 6.47–10.80) for the high‐risk group. Conclusions We developed a clinical AF prediction model, the Taiwan AF score, among a large‐scale Asian cohort. The new score could help physicians to identify Asian patients at high risk of AF in whom more aggressive and frequent detections and screenings may be considered.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
D S Harrington ◽  
Y Zhao ◽  
A Simonini ◽  
N Wong

Abstract Background Global cardiovascular risk scores frequently underestimate risk in persons with underlying asymptomatic cardiac lesions who eventually experience cardiovascular events. The Get-With-The-Guidelines Initiative analysis revealed that over 70% of patients with a first cardiac event were well within guideline targets for lipid values. Most artery flow-disrupting events occur at locations with less than 50% lumen narrowing. From clinical studies published in the late 1990s using IVUS (in-the-artery-ultrasound) to visualize disease status, the typical heart attack occurs at locations with about 20% stenosis (narrowing), prior to sudden lumen closure and resulting ACS. This sudden lumen closure is caused by rupture of an unstable cardiac lesion causing a blood clot and occlusion in up to 75% of heart attacks. The role of multi-biomarker algorithms to identify vulnerable patients with these lesions at risk of short-term ACS events is of great interest. Methods We studied 725 adults (≥18 yrs) from Cardiology practices who received a 5-year modified Framingham Risk Score (mFRS), and a coronary artery disease predictive algorithm (CADPA) multi-biomarker score. CADPA incorporates 9 biomarkers (CTACK, Eotaxin, Fas Ligand, HGF, IL-16, MCP-3, sFas, HDL, and HbA1c) with age, sex, diabetes, and family history of myocardial infarction, previously shown to more accurately reclassify risk of cardiovascular events (cNRI=43%). Patients were classified into low (<3.5%), intermediate (3.5% - <7.5%), and high (≥7.5%) 5-year risk categories with both mFRS and CADPA. Patients low or intermediate risk by mFRS, but reclassified high by CADPA are reported and compared. Results Persons at low, intermediate, and high global risk categories were successively more likely to demonstrate high-risk scores with CADPA (Figure). However, 349 (65%) in the low mFRS risk group were reclassified into higher CADPA risk groups and 104 (70%) intermediate risk patients were reclassified into the high-risk group (p<0.0001 for CADPA vs. mFRS). Analysis demonstrated that 89% (309) of the low or intermediate mFRS [125 females (99%); 184 males (83%); p<0.0001] and, 86 below 65 years (93%) and 223 above 65 years (88%); p=0.26)] were classified as high-risk by CADPA, indicating that many persons who may be at high risk are not identified as such by global risk assessment. CADPA Risk Reclassification Conclusions We conclude that this novel multi-biomarker panel (CADPA) identifies many persons at increased risk of cardiac events due to asymptomatic cardiac lesions missed by traditional global risk methods. Further investigation of the value of such a test for prediction of near-term CVD events is required.


Author(s):  
M. MAHIMA SWAROOPA ◽  
REDDY PRAVEEN ◽  
S. K. LAL SAHEB ◽  
S. K. SAI RINNISHA ◽  
P. SARANYA ◽  
...  

Objective: To assess the individual’s predicted risk of developing a CVD event in 10 y using risk scores among persons with other disorders/diseases. Methods: This is a cross-sectional observational study conducted for a period of 6 mo among 283 subjects. Total risk was estimated individually by using Framingham Risk Scoring Algorithm and ASCVD risk estimator. Results: According to Framingham Risk score the prevalence of low risk (<10%) identified as 67.84% (192), followed by intermediate risk (10%-19%), 19.08% (54), and high risk (≥20%) 13.07% (37). By using ASCVD Risk estimator, risk has reported in our study population was low risk (<5%) is 48.76% (138), borderline risk (5-7.4%) is 13.07% (37), intermediate risk (7.5-19.9%) is about 25.09% (71), high risk (>20%) is about 13.07% (37). Conclusion: In this study burden of CVD risk was relatively low, which was estimated by both the Framingham scale and ASCVD Risk estimator. Risk scoring of individuals helps us to identify the patients at high risk of CV diseases and also helps in providing management strategies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junjie Guo ◽  
Xiaoyang Li ◽  
Shen Shen ◽  
Xuejian Wu

AbstractCancer immunotherapy is a promising therapeutic approach, but the prognostic value of immune-related genes in osteosarcoma (OS) is unknown. Here, Target-OS RNA-seq data were analyzed to detect differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between OS subgroups, followed by functional enrichment analysis. Cox proportional risk regression was performed for each immune-related gene, and a risk score model to predict the prognosis of patients with OS was constructed. The risk scores were calculated using the risk signature to divide the training set into high-risk and low-risk groups, and validation was performed with GSE21257. We identified two immune-associated clusters, C1 and C2. C1 was closely related to immunity, and the immune score was significantly higher in C1 than in C2. Furthermore, we validated 6 immune cell hub genes related to the prognosis of OS: CD8A, KIR2DL1, CD79A, APBB1IP, GAL, and PLD3. Survival analysis revealed that the prognosis of the high-risk group was significantly worse than that of the low-risk group. We also explored whether the 6-gene prognostic risk model was effective for survival prediction. In conclusion, the constructed a risk score model based on immune-related genes and the survival of patients with OS could be a potential tool for targeted therapy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Zemin Zhu ◽  
Caixi Tang ◽  
Tao Xu ◽  
Zhijian Zhao

Background. Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) family members play a vital role in anticancer therapy. This study aimed to screen the critical markers for the prognostic analysis of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAAD) by analyzing the clustering patterns of TNF family members in PAAD. Methods. In this study, the NMF clustering method was adopted to cluster samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) to acquire the clustering pattern of the TNF family in PAAD. Differential gene analysis was performed according to TNF family gene clusters. The support vector machine (SVM) method was conducted for further gene screening, and the risk score model of the screened genes was constructed by Lasso. The single sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA) method was adopted for immunoenrichment analysis and tumor immune cycle analysis. Genes associated with risk scores were analyzed by Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analysis. Results. We clustered PAAD into two groups based on TNF family genes. Nineteen TNF family genes were significantly associated with the clinical characteristics of PAAD patients. The risk score formula was composed of RHOD, UBE2C, KLHDC7b, MSLN, ADAM8, NME3, GNG2, and MCOLN3. GSE57495 and GSE62452 datasets verified that patients in the high-risk group had a worse prognosis than those in the low-risk group. The risk score-related genes analyzed by GO and KEGG were mainly involved in the modulation of chemical synaptic transmission and synaptic vesicle cycle pathway. There were significant differences in the expression of 15 immune cells between the high-risk group and the low-risk group. The risk score was positively correlated with HCK, interferon, MHC-I, and STAT1. The expression of genes relevant to chemokine, immunostimulator, MHC, and receptor was strongly associated with the risk score. Conclusion. The risk score model based on the TNF family can predict the prognosis and immune status of PAAD patients. Further research is needed to verify the clinical prognostic value of risk scores.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song Shi ◽  
Shuaijie Yang ◽  
Zhenyu Zhou ◽  
Kai Sun ◽  
Ran Tao ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundRNA sequencing has become a powerful tool for exploring tumor recurrence or metastasis mechanisms. In this study, we aimed to develop a signature to improve the prognostic predictions of osteosarcoma.Materials and methodsBy comparing the expression profiles between metastatic and non-metastatic samples, we obtained 57 metastatic-related gene signatures. Then we constructed a 3‐gene signature to predict the prognostic risk of osteosarcoma patients by the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The risk score derived from this signature could successfully stratify osteosarcoma patients into subgroups with different survival outcomes.ResultsPatients in the low-risk group showed more prolonged overall survival than those in the high-risk group. And the performance was validated with another independent dataset. Multivariate cox regression revealed that the risk score served as an independent risk factor. Besides, we found that patients with low-risk scores had higher expression levels of immune-related signatures, suggesting an active immune status in those patients. Using the CIBERSORT database, we further systematically analyzed the relationships between the risk score and immune cell infiltration levels, as well as the immune activation markers. Higher infiltration of immune cells (CD8 T cells, monocytes, M2 macrophages, and memory B cells) and higher levels of immune cytotoxic markers (GZMA, GMZB, IFNG, and TNF) were observed in patients in the low-risk group.ConclusionsIn summary, this 3-gene signature could be a reliable marker for prognostic evaluation and help clinicians identify high‐risk patients.


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