scholarly journals The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 3305-3336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Drago ◽  
Roberto Galbiati ◽  
Francesco Sobbrio
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Prison Population ◽  
The Political ◽  
Recidivism Rate ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Cost ◽  
Crime News

Abstract This study analyzes voters’ response to criminal justice policies by exploiting a natural experiment. The 2006 Italian Collective Pardon Bill, designed and promoted by the incumbent center-left (CL) coalition, unexpectedly released about one-third of the prison population, creating idiosyncratic incentives to recidivate across pardoned individuals. Municipalities where resident pardoned individuals had a higher incentive to recidivate experienced a higher recidivism rate. We show that in those municipalities voters “punished” the CL coalition in the 2008 parliamentary elections. A one standard deviation increase in the incentive to recidivate—corresponding to an increase of recidivism of 15.9%—led to a 3.06% increase in the margin of victory of the center-right (CR) coalition in the post-pardon national elections (2008) relative to the last election before the pardon (2006). We also provide evidence of newspapers being more likely to report crime news involving pardoned individuals and of voters hardening their views on the incumbent national government’s ability to control crime. Our findings indicate that voters keep politicians accountable by conditioning their vote on the observed effects of public policies.

scholarly journals The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Drago ◽  
Roberto Galbiati ◽  
Francesco Sobbrio
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Cost

scholarly journals The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Drago ◽  
Roberto Galbiati ◽  
Francesco Sobbrio
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Cost

The Effects of Malapportionment on Cabinet Inclusion: Subnational Evidence from India

2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikhil R. Bhavnani
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Formation Process ◽  
The Political ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Parliamentary Systems ◽  
Constituency Size

Malapportionment doubly penalizes people from relatively large electoral districts or constituencies by under-representing them in the legislature and in the political executive or cabinet. The latter effect has not been studied. This article develops theoretical reasons for large constituency disadvantage in the cabinet formation process, and tests them using a new repeated cross-sectional dataset on elections and cabinet formation in India’s states, from 1977–2007. A one-standard-deviation increase in relative constituency size is associated with a 22 per cent fall in the probability of a constituency’s representative being in the cabinet. Malapportionment affects cabinet inclusion by causing large parties to focus on winning relatively small constituencies. These effects are likely to hold in parliamentary systems, and in other contexts where the legislature influences cabinet inclusion.

scholarly journals The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Drago ◽  
Roberto Galbiati ◽  
Francesco Sobbrio
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Cost

Selection and Sanctioning in European Parliamentary Elections

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara B. Hobolt ◽  
Bjørn Høyland
Keyword(s):  
European Parliament ◽  
The Political ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
National Elections ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
First Order ◽  
Political Experience ◽  
Electoral Cycle ◽  
Unique Dataset

Elections are inherently about selecting good candidates for public office and sanctioning incumbents for past performance. Yet, in the low salience context of ‘second-order elections’ to the European Parliament, empirical evidence suggests that voters sanction first-order national incumbents. However, no previous study has examined whether voters also use these elections to select good candidates. This article draws on a unique dataset on the political experience of party representatives in eighty-five national elections to the European Parliament to evaluate the extent to which voters prefer candidates with more political experience. The results show that selection considerations do matter. Parties that choose experienced top candidates are rewarded by voters. This effect is greatest when European elections are held in the middle of the national electoral cycle.

Ein Ende mit Schrecken – Frankreich nach den Wahlen

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (188) ◽  
pp. 495-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Syrovatka
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Economic Transformations ◽  
Crisis Of Representation ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Deep Crisis

The presidential and parliamentary elections were a political earthquake for the French political system. While the two big parties experienced massive losses of political support, the rise of new political formations took place. Emmanuel Macron is not only the youngest president of the V. Republic so far, he is also the first president not to be supported by either one of the two biggest parties. This article argues that the election results are an expression of a deep crisis of representation in France that is rooted in the economic transformations of the 1970s. The article analyses the political situation after the elections and tries to give an outlook on further political developments in France.

Richard Sisson and Leo E. Rose. War and Secession: Pakistan, India and the Creation of Bangladesh. New Delhi: Vistaar Publications. 1990. 338 pp.Price Rs 225.00 (Hardbound).

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-99
Author(s):  
Ziaul Haque
Keyword(s):  
Political Polarization ◽  
The Political ◽  
New Delhi ◽  
Historical Events ◽  
National Elections ◽  
The Real ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
Political Events ◽  
The Creation

After thirteen long years of military dictatorship, national elections on the basis of adult franchise were held in Pakistan in December 1970. The Awami League, led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and the Pakistan Peoples Party, under Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, emerged as the two majority political parties in East Pakistan and West Pakistan respectively. The political party commanding a majority in one wing of the country had almost no following in the other. This ended in a political and constitutional deadlock, since this split mandate and political exclusiveness gradually led to the parting of ways and political polarization. Power was not transferred to the majority party (that is, the Awami League) within the legally prescribed time; instead, in the wake of the political/ constitutional crisis, a civil war broke out in East Pakistan which soon led to an open war between India and Pakistan in December 1971. This ultimately resulted in the dismemberment of Pakistan, and in the creation of Bangladesh as a sovereign country. The book under review is a political study of the causes and consequences of this crisis and the war, based on a reconstruction of the real facts, historical events, political processes and developments. It candidly recapitulates the respective roles of the political elites (both of India and Pakistan), their leaders and governments, and assesses their perceptions of the real situation. It is an absorbing narrative of almost thirteen months, from 7 December, 1970, when elections were held in Pakistan, to 17 December, 1971 when the war ended after the Pakistani army's surrender to the Indian army in Dhaka (on December 16, 1971). The authors, who are trained political scientists, give fresh interpretations of these historical events and processes and relate them to the broader regional and global issues, thus assessing the crisis in a broader perspective. This change of perspective enhances our understanding of the problems the authors discuss. Their focus on the problems under discussion is sharp, cogent, enlightening, and circumspect, whether or not the reader agrees with their conclusions. The grasp of the source material is masterly; their narration of fast-moving political events is superbly anchored in their scientific methodology and political philosophy.

Turnout in Multi-Level Systems

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sona N. Golder ◽  
Ignacio Lago ◽  
André Blais ◽  
Elisabeth Gidengil ◽  
Thomas Gschwend
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
The Body ◽  
Political Community ◽  
The Political ◽  
European Level ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Different Levels

Voters face different incentives to turn out to vote in one electoral arena versus another. Although turnout is lowest in European elections, it is found that the turnout is only slightly lower in regional than in national elections. Standard accounts suggest that the importance of an election, in terms of the policy-making power of the body to be elected, drives variation in turnout across elections at different levels. This chapter argues that this is only part of the story, and that voter attachment to a particular level also matters. Not all voters feel connected to each electoral arena in the same way. Although for some, their identity and the issues they most care about are linked to politics at the national level, for others, the regional or European level may offer the political community and political issues that most resonate with them.

scholarly journals Pharmacogenetic Polygenic Risk Score for Bronchodilator Response in Children and Adolescents with Asthma: Proof-of-Concept

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Joanne E. Sordillo ◽  
Sharon M. Lutz ◽  
Michael J. McGeachie ◽  
Jessica Lasky-Su ◽  
Scott T. Weiss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Association Studies ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Genome Wide Association Studies ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Bronchodilator Response ◽  
Children With Asthma

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of response to asthma medications have primarily focused on Caucasian populations, with findings that may not be generalizable to minority populations. We derived a polygenic risk score (PRS) for response to albuterol as measured by bronchodilator response (BDR), and examined the PRS in a cohort of Hispanic school-aged children with asthma. We leveraged a published GWAS of BDR to identify relevant genetic variants, and ranked the top variants according to their Combined Annotation Dependent Depletion (CADD) scores. Variants with CADD scores greater than 10 were used to compute the PRS. Once we derived the PRS, we determined the association of the PRS with BDR in a cohort of Hispanic children with asthma (the Genetics of Asthma in Costa Rica Study (GACRS)) in adjusted linear regression models. Mean BDR in GACRS participants was5.6% with a standard deviation of 10.2%. We observed a 0.63% decrease in BDR in response to albuterol for a standard deviation increase in the PRS (p = 0.05). We also observed decreased odds of a BDR response at or above the 12% threshold for a one standard deviation increase in the PRS (OR = 0.80 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.95)). Our findings show that combining variants from a pharmacogenetic GWAS into a PRS may be useful for predicting medication response in asthma.

scholarly journals Atrial fibrillation progression risk factors and associated cardiovascular outcome in well-phenotyped patients: data from the AF-RISK study

EP Europace ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 352-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruben R De With ◽  
Ernaldo G Marcos ◽  
Elton A M P Dudink ◽  
Henri M Spronk ◽  
Harry J G M Crijns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Left Atrial ◽  
Left Atrial Volume ◽  
Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor 1 ◽  
Atrial Volume ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Recent Onset ◽  
Pai 1

Abstract Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a progressive disease, but identifying patients at risk for AF progression is challenging. We aimed to identify factors associated with AF progression. Methods and results Atrial fibrillation progression was assessed in 392 patients with recent-onset paroxysmal or persistent AF included in the prospective, observational, multicentre identification of a risk profile to guide atrial fibrillation (AF-RISK) study. Progression of AF was assessed by Holter monitoring and 2-week event recorder at baseline and 1-year follow-up. AF progression was defined as: (i) doubling in AF burden at 1 year compared to baseline with a minimum AF burden of 10% in paroxysmal AF; or (ii) transition from paroxysmal to persistent or permanent AF; or (iii) persistent to permanent AF. Age was 60 ± 11 years, 62% were men, and 83% had paroxysmal AF. At 1 year, 52 (13%) had AF progression (11% in paroxysmal; 26% in persistent AF). Multivariable logistic regression showed that left atrial volume [odds ratio (OR) per 10 mL 1.251, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.078–1.450; P < 0.001], N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; OR per standard deviation increase 1.583, 95% CI 1.099–2.281; P = 0.014), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1; OR per standard deviation increase 0.660, 95% CI 0.472–0.921; P = 0.015) were associated with AF progression. In an additional follow-up of 1.9 (0.9–3.3) years patients with AF progression developed more cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality (12.4%/year vs. 2.3%/year, P < 0.001). Conclusion Atrial fibrillation progression occurred in 13% of patients with recent-onset AF during 1-year follow-up. Left atrial volume, NT-proBNP, and PAI-1 were associated with AF progression. Patients with AF progression had a higher event rate. Trial registration number Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01510210.

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