Updating Beliefs when Evidence is Open to Interpretation: Implications for Bias and Polarization

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1470-1501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland G Fryer ◽  
Philipp Harms ◽  
Matthew O Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Death Penalty ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
The State ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Online Experiment ◽  
The World ◽  
Current Belief

Abstract We introduce a model in which agents observe signals about the state of the world, and some signals are open to interpretation. Our decision makers first interpret each signal based on their current belief and then form a posterior on the sequence of interpreted signals. This “double updating” leads to confirmation bias and can lead agents who observe the same information to polarize. We explore the model’s predictions in an online experiment in which individuals interpret research summaries about climate change and the death penalty. Consistent with the model, there is a significant relationship between an individual’s prior and their interpretation of the summaries; and over half of the subjects exhibit polarizing behavior.

scholarly journals Development of a Shipment Policy for Collection Centers

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1385
Author(s):  
Irais Mora-Ochomogo ◽  
Marco Serrato ◽  
Jaime Mora-Vargas ◽  
Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Markov Decision Process ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Humanitarian Organizations ◽  
The World ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Unsatisfied Demand

Natural disasters represent a latent threat for every country in the world. Due to climate change and other factors, statistics show that they continue to be on the rise. This situation presents a challenge for the communities and the humanitarian organizations to be better prepared and react faster to natural disasters. In some countries, in-kind donations represent a high percentage of the supply for the operations, which presents additional challenges. This research proposes a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model to resemble operations in collection centers, where in-kind donations are received, sorted, packed, and sent to the affected areas. The decision addressed is when to send a shipment considering the uncertainty of the donations’ supply and the demand, as well as the logistics costs and the penalty of unsatisfied demand. As a result of the MDP a Monotone Optimal Non-Decreasing Policy (MONDP) is proposed, which provides valuable insights for decision-makers within this field. Moreover, the necessary conditions to prove the existence of such MONDP are presented.

scholarly journals Right to life and possible interference in its implementation: Constitutional and legal aspect

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 453-457
Author(s):  
Marina L. Voronkova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Death Penalty ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Legal Aspect ◽  
The State ◽  
Human Embryos ◽  
Right To Life ◽  
Legal Method ◽  
The World ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Right

Introduction. The problems of realizing the right to life are relevant to varying degrees in all countries of the world. Their importance can hardly be overestimated, since the preservation of a full-fledged family, society and the state as a whole depends on their solution. The article examines the problems associated with abortion, surrogacy, the development of biotechnology, death penalty, and analyzes the legislative experience of various states and Russia in these areas. The purpose of the study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the problems arising in connection with the realization of the right to life and its possible restrictions. In the course of studying the problems, both general scientific and special legal methods were used: historical and dialectical methods, methods of analysis and synthesis, as well as the comparative legal method. Theoretical analysis. Russia (RSFSR) was the first country in the world to legislate in 1920 to allow abortion. According to the author, artificial termination of pregnancy solely at the request of a woman (without taking into account medical and social factors) causes irreparable harm to society, especially given the difficult demographic situation in modern Russia. In addition, this does not correspond to the guiding thesis of responsibility to future generations, enshrined in the preamble to the Constitution of the Russian Federation. In the context of realizing the right to life, each state faces a problem related to death penalty. Can a state, where the right to life is guaranteed, take the life of criminals? Apparently, each state should decide this issue based on the extent to which a particular crime poses a threat to society, a threat to life and health of people. Results. In our opinion, in countries with liberal legislation in relation to abortion, such as Russia, it is necessary to prohibit abortion at the request of a woman, since in this case the woman’s desire violates the right to life of an unborn child. The state should protect the right to life from the moment of conception, not birth, but this is a long process that should lead to an extensive interpretation of Part 2 of Art. 17 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation by the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation. In addition, Russia needs to pay attention to the legislative experience of Germany and France in relation to surrogacy. In these countries, the legislator has clearly substantiated why surrogacy is in fact a crime against the family. In these countries, surrogacy is criminalized. Also, with the development of biotechnology all over the world, the problems of IVF and cryopreservation of human embryos are acute. This problem can also be solved at the level of legislation by allowing IVF only to married couples (man and woman) who cannot give birth to a child, and by limiting the number of fertilized eggs to a minimum, so that later the issue of destroying unclaimed embryos is not resolved. In general, it seems that in a mature society that wants to develop and tries to prevent the destruction of its state, it is necessary to protect the right to life by all possible legislative methods.

Windstorm and storm surges in Europe: loss trends and possible counter-actions from the viewpoint of an international reinsurer

2005 ◽  
Vol 363 (1831) ◽  
pp. 1431-1440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Berz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Design Code ◽  
The World

Windstorm disasters (including storm surges) account for about one-third of all natural disasters throughout the world (by number, fatalities and economic losses), but for more than two-thirds of the corresponding insured losses. Trend analyses reveal that major windstorm disasters and the losses generated by them have increased drastically in recent decades. Risk partnership between the state, the affected population and the insurance industry assumes a key role with regard to the windstorm hazard. Scientists, engineers and insurers must work together in formulating their requirements and shaping them in such a way that politicians can derive clearly recognizable policy options (e.g. land-use, restrictions, design-code adjustments) from them. Another important aspect is stepping up the efforts being made towards curbing climate change, which will, otherwise, exacerbate the risk in the future.

scholarly journals Effective Policy Applications of Psychological Science: Drawing Parallels between COVID-19 and Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehrgol Tiv ◽  
David Livert ◽  
Trisha Dehrone ◽  
Maya Godbole ◽  
Laura López-Aybar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Psychological Perspective ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
The World ◽  
Effective Policy

In 2021, the world continues to face a serious, widespread challenge from the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments and civil society are grappling with unprecedented impacts on healthcare and the economy as well as restrictions of normal social interactions of millions. Still, the climate emergency has not rested. Unless addressed, carbon levels will continue to rise through this pandemic, the development and disbursements of vaccines, and the next pandemic. From a psychological perspective, there are many commonalities between the current COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing crisis of climate change. This whitepaper begins by summarizing the broad similarities between these two crises. From there, we draw parallels between COVID-19 and climate change across four domains of psychological research. In doing this, we identify evidence-based approaches that policymakers and other key decision-makers can adopt to holistically respond to the two global crises of climate change and public health. We conclude with a broad discussion on the role of psychological science (and other social and behavioral sciences) in policy.

scholarly journals Insurance Against Extreme Weather Events: An Overview

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-95
Author(s):  
Kati Kraehnert ◽  
Daniel Osberghaus ◽  
Christian Hott ◽  
Lemlem Teklegiorgis Habtemariam ◽  
Frank Wätzold ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
The State ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The World ◽  
Negative Side Effects ◽  
State Of Research

Abstract Extreme weather events increasingly threaten the economic situation of households and enterprises around the world. Insurance against extreme weather events is among the climate change adaptation instruments that are currently discussed by the policy community. This overview paper provides a synopsis of the state of research on insurance against extreme weather events, outlining advantages and limitations inherent in three main types of insurance: indemnity-based insurance, index-based insurance, and insurance-linked securities. The paper discusses issues related to insurance uptake, distributional effects, misleading incentives and potentially negative side effects, as well as the role of the state.

scholarly journals Transformational Change for People and the Planet: Evaluating Environment and Development – Introduction

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Juha I. Uitto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Transformational Change ◽  
Biological Species ◽  
The State ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Development Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Approaches ◽  
Change Mitigation

AbstractThe world is facing multiple crises as manifested in runaway climate change, a global pandemic, loss of ecosystems and biological species, and rapidly growing inequality. These are all closely interlinked as recognized in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Addressing them will require broad transformational change that encompasses the economy, institutions, and how we interact with the natural environment. This chapter introduces the book that is intended to highlight how evaluation can contribute to such transformations. The chapter first reviews the state of development evaluation. It then briefly introduces the state of the global environment before discussing the implications of this context for evaluation, and how evaluation as a profession and practice must change in order to respond to the challenges of sustainability. The chapter ends by explaining the flow of the book in its four parts that focus on: transformational change, drivers of sustainability, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and evaluation approaches.

scholarly journals Post-Combustion CO2 Capture from Exhaust Gas by Amines and Membranes

2016 ◽  
Vol 830 ◽  
pp. 19-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Diego Tachy ◽  
C.S. José Andrade ◽  
B. Sérgio Neves
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
The State ◽  
Exhaust Gas ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Chemical Absorption ◽  
Hybrid Processes ◽  
The World ◽  
In Series ◽  
Installation Cost

There is a necessity to reduce GHG emission because climate change may have critical consequences in many places around the world. The main gas which causes climate change is CO2 which is released into atmosphere mainly by industries and vehicles. This research aims to compare two technologies for CO2 capture: chemical absorption with membranes, and to present hybrid processes using both of these. A review of the state of art for CO2 capture is used in this research. The capture by absorption with amines is the state of the art for post-combustion because it produces CO2 with higher purity and is cheaper. However, the energy and installation cost are high which does do not encourage its applicability. Membrane for CO2 capture from natural gas is promissory because of this. Thus, researchers have studied other technologies for CO2 capture to replace or add through including hybrid processes. Capture by membrane is a promising technology for this, provided that since it presents appropriate selectivity and permeability. This paper presents a comparison between CO2 capture by absorption with amines and by membranes. The goal is to discuss hybrid processes with these two technologies in series.

The Evolution of Cognitive Representational Decision Making

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armin W. Schulz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mental States ◽  
The State ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Efficiency Gains ◽  
Cognitive Efficiency ◽  
The Core ◽  
The World ◽  
Core Idea

This chapter develops a new account of the evolution of cognitive representational decision making—i.e. of decision making that relies on representations about the state of the world. The core idea behind this account is that cognitive representational decision making can—at times—be more cognitively efficient than non-cognitive representational decision making. In particular, cognitive representational decision making, by being able to draw on the inferential resources of higher-level mental states, can enable organisms to adjust more easily to changes in their environment and to streamline their neural decision making machinery (relative to non-representational decision makers). While these cognitive efficiency gains will sometimes be outweighed by the costs of this way of making decisions—i.e. the fact that representational decision making is generally slower and more concentration- and attention-hungry than non-representational decision making—this will not always be the case. Moreover, it is possible to say in more detail which kinds of circumstances will favor the evolution of cognitive representational decision making, and which do not.

scholarly journals Relationship Between Economic Growth and Environmental Pressures (Legal Aspects)

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 127-139
Author(s):  
Galyna V. Moroz ◽  
Olga A. Grytsan ◽  
Oleh A. Vivcharenko ◽  
Nadiia R. Kobetska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Legal Aspect ◽  
The State ◽  
Waste Generation ◽  
Environmental Pressures ◽  
The World ◽  
State Of The Environment

The problem of the impact of economic development of the world on the state of the environment is quite relevant today. Entrepreneurs usually defend their private interests and try to increase profits in every possible way, without caring about the state of the environment and the future. If in the economically developed countries of the world the government is trying hard to control compliance with environmental legislation and implement a green economy, Ukraine is hopelessly behind, and only in recent years is beginning to actively think about preserving the environment and develop mechanisms to achieve this goal. It is important to explore how the legal aspect can help address the balance between Ukraine's economic development and environmental quality, especially in terms of its impact on climate change, where air pollution, waste generation and energy security are key factors. The purpose of the study was to investigate the legal aspect of the interrelation between economic growth and environmental pressures. As a result, the world experience in finding ways of mutually beneficial activities for the economic development of countries and the preservation of the environment was analysed. The study examined the factors influencing climate change, waste generation and energy security in the projection of economic development. The main principles (strategy) of the state ecological policy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030 are analysed; regulations of Ukraine and the European Union, which regulate the preservation of the environment in terms of the legal effect on solving the problem of the interrelation between economic growth and pressure on the environment.

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