scholarly journals Incorporating density dependence in pup production in a stock assessment of NE Atlantic spurdog Squalus acanthias

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
pp. 1341-1353 ◽  
Author(s):  
José A. A. De Oliveira ◽  
James R. Ellis ◽  
Helen Dobby
Keyword(s):  
Density Dependence ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Squalus Acanthias ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Ne Atlantic ◽  
Commercial Catch ◽  
Gear Selectivity ◽  
Production Growth ◽  
Future Population ◽  
Early Fecundity

Abstract De Oliveira, J. A. A., Ellis, J. R., and Dobby, H. 2013. Incorporating density dependence in pup production in a stock assessment of NE Atlantic spurdog Squalus acanthias. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: . An age- and sex-structured stock assessment model for Northeast Atlantic spurdog Squalus acanthias is presented that includes length-based processes, such as maturation, pup production, growth, and gear selectivity, with a length-at-age relationship to convert length to age. It relates pup production functionally to numbers of pregnant females, allowing for density-dependent effects. The model was fitted to a combined Scottish groundfish survey biomass index, to proportion-by-length category data from both trawl surveys and commercial catch sampling from target and non-target fisheries, and to fecundity data. The model was run from 1905 to better reflect virgin conditions and to allow early fecundity data to be fitted in order to estimate the extent of density dependence in pup production. The model estimated 2010 population levels to be about 23% relative to 1955 and 19% relative to 1905. Results confirm that the stock is depleted, but not to the extent estimated in a previous assessment. Current estimates of depletion would support an IUCN listing of “Endangered”, but not “Critically Endangered”. Model projections showed that a TAC of 1422 t (the last non-zero TAC) would allow future population growth.

A length-based Bayesian stock assessment model for the New Zealand abalone Haliotis iris

2003 ◽  
Vol 54 (5) ◽  
pp. 619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Breen ◽  
Susan W. Kim ◽  
Neil L. Andrew
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Commercial Catch ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Common Component ◽  
Joint Posterior Distribution

We describe a length-based Bayesian model for stock assessment of the New Zealand abalone Haliotis iris (paua). We fitted the model to five data sets: catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and a fishery-independent survey index, proportions-at-length from both commercial catch sampling and population surveys, and tag–recapture data. We estimated a common component of error and used iterative re-weighting of the data sets to balance the residuals, removing the arbitrary data set weightings used in previous assessments. Estimates at the mode of the joint posterior distribution were used to explore sensitivity of the results to model assumptions and input data; the assessment itself was based on marginal posterior distributions estimated from Markov chain–Monte Carlo simulation. Assessments are presented for two stocks in the south of New Zealand. One may be recovering after recent catch reductions; the other is over-exploited and likely to decline further. Assessment for the first stock was robust; assessment for the second stock was sensitive to the CPUE data and may be too optimistic. We discuss future directions and potential problems with this approach.

Relationship between settlement of southern rock lobster pueruli, Jasus edwardsii, and recruitment to the fishery in Tasmania, Australia

2001 ◽  
Vol 52 (8) ◽  
pp. 1271 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Gardner ◽  
S. D. Frusher ◽  
R. B. Kennedy ◽  
A. Cawthorn
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Catch Rate ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Rock Lobster ◽  
Commercial Catch ◽  
Jasus Edwardsii ◽  
Catch Rates ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
Northeast Coast

Puerulus catches on artificial collectors were measured monthly at four sites around Tasmania from 1991 to April 2000, with the aim of predicting future changes in recruitment to the fishery. Support for the potential of catch-rate prediction in Tasmania was provided at the two sites that have overlap of several years between indices of puerulus settlement and indices of the abundance of recruits to the fishery. At Bicheno, on the northeast coast, correlations between annual puerulus index and commercial catch rates were highly significant, with a lag of 5 years (P< 0.01). Similar interannual trends in puerulus index and estimates from a stock-assessment model of the biomass of recruits to the fishery provided additional support for a link with puerulus index. A 5-fold interannual variation in puerulus index detected at Bicheno, with a peak in 1995, was preceded by 3 years of relatively low puerulus catch. The peak in puerulus index appears to lead to an increase in the abundance of sublegal males in research sampling 3 years later. Correlation between annual measures of puerulus index and catch rate also appeared significant at King Island (P= 0.06) although data at this site had less contrast.

scholarly journals Consequences of variations in carrying capacity or migration for the perception of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) population dynamics

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (5) ◽  
pp. 827-836 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Marc Fromentin ◽  
Laurence T Kell
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Bluefin Tuna ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Thunnus Thynnus ◽  
Commercial Catch ◽  
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna

Spectacular long-term cycles (around 110 years), independent of human exploitation, have been seen in historical catches of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus). Previous studies indicated that such variations could have been generated by contrasting but equally plausible dynamic processes, i.e., changes in carrying capacity or migration. A simulation framework was therefore used to test whether the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tuna stock assessment model, i.e., a virtual population analysis (VPA), can capture such dynamics. The main outcome is that knowledge of the underlying process is crucial, because distinct hypotheses lead to different population dynamics and contrasting performances of the stock assessment model. The VPA is indeed able to reconstruct accurately the historical stock parameters under the carrying-capacity hypothesis, but not under the migratory hypothesis, for which there is often strong bias (up to 500%) in absolute values and in trends of spawning stock biomass and F. Furthermore, it was shown that (i) different phases between exploitation and long-term cycle can induce contrasting terminal F for a same effort and (ii) that there was considerable confounding between the dynamics and increasing effort (as currently seen). We conclude that it is difficult to infer the actual dynamics on the basis of commercial catch data and that novel fishery-independent observation is needed.

scholarly journals Applying a two-stage Bayesian dynamic model to a short lived species, the anchovy in the Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean). Comparison with an Integrated Catch at Age stock assessment model.

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 350 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. GIANNOULAKI ◽  
L. IBAIBARRIAGA ◽  
K. ANTONAKAKIS ◽  
A. URIARTE ◽  
A. MACHIAS ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Aegean Sea ◽  
Production Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Commercial Catch ◽  
The North

Two different stock assessment models were applied to the North Aegean Sea anchovy stock (Eastern Mediterranean Sea): an Integrated Catch at age Analysis and a Bayesian two-stage biomass based model. Commercial catch data over the period 2000-2008 as well as acoustics and Daily Egg Production Method estimates over the period 2003-2008 were used. Both models results were consistent, indicating that anchovy stock is exploited sustainably in relation to an exploitation rate reference point. Further, the stock biomass appears stable or increasing. However, the limitations in age-composition data, potential problems related to misinterpretation of age readings along with the existence of missing values in the survey data seem to favour the two-stage biomass method, which is based on a simplified age structure.  

scholarly journals Stock assessment and projections incorporating discard estimates in some years: an application to the hake stock in ICES Divisions VIIIc and IXa

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 1185-1197 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Fernández ◽  
S. Cerviño ◽  
N. Pérez ◽  
E. Jardim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Marine Science ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Change Over Time ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Fernández, C., Cerviño, S., Pérez, N., and Jardim, E. 2010. Stock assessment and projections incorporating discard estimates in some years: an application to the hake stock in ICES Divisions VIIIc and IXa. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 1185–1197. A Bayesian age-structured stock assessment model is developed to take into account available information on discards and to handle gaps in the time-series of discard estimates. The model incorporates mortality attributable to discarding, and appropriate assumptions about how this mortality may change over time are made. The result is a stock assessment that accounts for information on discards while, at the same time, producing a complete time-series of discard estimates. The method is applied to the hake stock in ICES Divisions VIIIc and IXa, for which the available data indicate that some 60% of the individuals caught are discarded. The stock is fished by Spain and Portugal, and for each country, there are discard estimates for recent years only. Moreover, the years for which Portuguese estimates are available are only a subset of those with Spanish estimates. Two runs of the model are performed; one assuming zero discards and another incorporating discards. When discards are incorporated, estimated recruitment and fishing mortality for young (discarded) ages increase, resulting in lower values of the biological reference points Fmax and F0.1 and, generally, more optimistic future stock trajectories under F-reduction scenarios.

scholarly journals Correcting density-dependent effects in abundance estimates from bottom-trawl surveys

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (5) ◽  
pp. 1107-1116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stan Kotwicki ◽  
James N. Ianelli ◽  
André E. Punt
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Dead Zone ◽  
Walleye Pollock ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Bottom Trawl ◽  
Trawl Survey ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Index Of Abundance

Abstract Indices of abundance are important for estimating population trends in stock assessment and ideally should be based on fishery-independent surveys to avoid problems associated with the hyperstability of the commercial catch per unit effort (cpue) data. However, recent studies indicate that the efficiency of the survey bottom trawl (BT) for some species can be density-dependent, which could affect the reliability of survey-derived indices of abundance. A function qe∼f(u), where qe is the BT efficiency and u the catch rate, was derived using experimentally derived acoustic dead-zone correction and BT efficiency parameters obtained from combining a subset of BT catch data with synchronously collected acoustic data from walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS). We found that qe decreased with increasing BT catches resulting in hyperstability of the index of abundance derived from BT survey. Density-dependent qe resulted in spatially and temporarily variable bias in survey cpue and biased population age structure derived from survey data. We used the relationship qe∼f(u) to correct the EBS trawl survey index of abundance for density-dependence. We also obtained a variance–covariance matrix for a new index that accounted for sampling variability and the uncertainty associated with the qe. We found that incorporating estimates of the new index of abundance changed outputs from the walleye pollock stock assessment model. Although changes were minor, we advocate incorporating estimates of density-dependent qe into the walleye pollock stock assessment as a precautionary measure that should be undertaken to avoid negative consequences of the density-dependent qe.

Interaction Between Stock Area, Stock Abundance, and Catchability Coefficient

1985 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 989-998 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. H. Winters ◽  
J. P. Wheeler
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Clupea Harengus ◽  
Atlantic Herring ◽  
Population Abundance ◽  
Commercial Catch ◽  
Standard Manner ◽  
Clupea Harengus Harengus ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Stock Abundance

The relationship between commercial catch-rates and population density upon which many stock assessment models depend assumes that stock area (A) is constant and independent of population abundance. Starting from a theoretical demonstration that the catchability coefficient (q) is inversely proportional to A, we establish the empirical basis of this relationship through comparisons of q and A of various Northwest Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus harengus) stocks and, in more detail, for Fortune Bay herring. For these stocks the relationship was of the form q = cA−b. For Atlantic herring stocks, levels of b were in excess of 0.80. In Fortune Bay herring, reductions in abundance were accompanied by proportional reductions in A, which in turn was inversely correlated with changes in q. School size, measured as catch per set, also declined as population levels declined but the change was not proportional. Published findings indicate that pelagic stocks in particular, and fish stocks in general, exhibit a common response of reductions in A with interactive increases in the q during periods of rapid population decline. We conclude that the conventional assumption of a constant stock area is usually violated due to the systematic interaction between A and population abundance which is reflected in an inverse relationship between stock abundance and q. Calibration of sequential population models should therefore be restricted to research vessel data collected in a standard manner and covering the distributional area of the stock.

Improved approximations for estimation of size-transition probabilities within size-structured models

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (8) ◽  
pp. 1305-1313
Author(s):  
Russell B. Millar ◽  
Christopher D. Nottingham
Keyword(s):  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Approximation Error ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Individual Variability ◽  
Size Class ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Accurate Approximation ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Incremental Growth

Modelling annual growth of individuals in a size-structured model requires calculation of the size-transition probabilities for moving from one size class to another. This requires evaluation of two-dimensional integrals when there is individual variability in growth. For computational simplicity, it is common to approximate the integrals by setting all individuals in a size class to the midsize of that class or by ignoring the individual variability. We develop a more accurate approximation that assumes a uniform distribution in size within each size class. The approximation is fast and hence feasible for Bayesian models in which the matrix of transition probabilities must be computed for each posterior sample. The improved accuracy of the new approximation is shown to hold over a diverse range of formulations for incremental growth. For the New Zealand Paua 5A (Haliotis iris) stock assessment model, it was found to reduce the average approximation error of the size-transition probabilities by 86% and 98% compared with the midpoint and deterministic growth approximations, respectively. Moreover, the midpoint and deterministic approximations inflated the estimated maximum sustainable yield by 6% and 8%, respectively, and the current biomass by almost 30% in comparison with the more accurate approximation.

Eels at the Edge: Science, Status, and Conservation Concerns

2009 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Management System ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Commercial Catch ◽  
The North ◽  
Anguilla Australis ◽  
Unit Effort ◽  
Access Rights ◽  
Quota Management

<em>Abstract.</em>—The New Zealand eel fishery comprises two species, the shortfin eel <em>Anguilla australis </em>and the New Zealand longfin eel <em>A. dieffenbachii</em>. A third species, the speckled longfin eel <em>A. reinhardtii</em>, is present in small numbers in some areas. Major fisheries in New Zealand are managed under the Quota Management System. Individual transferable quotas are set as a proportion of an annual total allowable commercial catch. The Quota Management System was introduced into the South Island eel fishery on 1 October 2000 and the North Island fishery on 1 October 2004. Freshwater eels have particular significance for customary Maori. Management policies allow for customary take and the granting of commercial access rights on introduction into the Quota Management System. Eel catches have remained relatively constant since the early 1970s. The average annual catch from 1989–1990 to 2001–2002 (fishing year) was 1,313 mt. Catch per unit effort remained constant from 1983 to 1989 and reduced from 1990 to 1999. Statistically significant declines in catch per unit effort for New Zealand longfin eel were found in some areas over the latter period. For management, an annual stock-assessment process provides an update on stock status.

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