scholarly journals Evaluating the impact of buffers to account for scientific uncertainty when setting TACs: application to red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 624-634 ◽  
Author(s):  
André E. Punt ◽  
M. S. M. Siddeek ◽  
Brian Garber-Yonts ◽  
Michael Dalton ◽  
Louis Rugolo ◽  
...  

Abstract Punt, A. E., Siddeek, M. S. M., Garber-Yonts, B., Dalton, M., Rugolo, L., Stram, D., Turnock, B. J., and Zheng, J. 2012. Evaluating the impact of buffers to account for scientific uncertainty when setting TACs: application to red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 624–634. Increasingly, scientific uncertainty is being accounted for in fisheries management by implementing an uncertainty buffer, i.e. a difference between the limit catch level given perfect information and the set catch. An approach based on simulation is outlined, which can be used to evaluate the impact of different buffers on short- and long-term catches, discounted revenue, the probability of overfishing (i.e. the catch exceeding the true, but unknown, limit catch), and the stock becoming overfished (i.e. for crab, mature male biomass, MMB, dropping below one-half of the MMB corresponding to maximum sustainable yield). This approach can be applied when only a fraction of the uncertainty related to estimating the limit catch level is quantified through stock assessments. The approach is applied for illustrative purposes to the fishery for red king crab, Paralithodes camtschaticus, in Bristol Bay, AK.

2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genevieve Briand ◽  
Thomas Heckelei ◽  
Scott C Matulich ◽  
Ron C Mittelhammer

Because of concern about the inability to manage the Bristol Bay red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) fishery in Alaska and, in particular, to use in-season fishery performance to close the fishery at or near the preseason guideline harvest level, increasingly stringent pot limits were adopted to elongate the collapsing seasons. This paper provides a rigorous examination of the effect that pot limits had on season elongation and whether a redistribution of wealth occurred between large and small fishing vessels as a result of the policy. A simulation model of the fishery shows that pot limits did not elongate the season sufficiently to improve in-season management. Moreover, the policy allowed vessels to capture efficiency gains arising from an industry-wide reduction in fishing capacity. Both vessel size classes benefited from mutual gear reduction in all years except 1992. Redistribution of wealth was found to occur only in one year of the five years examined.


1997 ◽  
Vol 54 (5) ◽  
pp. 1121-1134 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Zheng ◽  
M C Murphy ◽  
G H Kruse

A modifiable harvest rate constrained by a minimum spawning abundance (threshold) is currently used to set the annual harvest level for Bristol Bay red king crab, Paralithodes camtschaticus. A length-based simulation model was constructed to evaluate effects of recruitment, natural mortality, and handling mortality on this harvest strategy. Evaluation criteria included mean yield, stability of yield, harvest opportunity, and stability of spawning stock. Optimal mature male harvest rates were strongly negatively related to handling mortality. For any given harvest rate, handling mortality is a key factor influencing optimal thresholds. The current harvest strategy produces a high mean yield and low variability in yield under low handling mortality scenarios, but the population is at high risk of collapse with a high handling mortality. Given uncertainties of recruitment, natural mortality, and handling mortality estimates, we recommend reducing mature male harvest rate from 20 to 15% and maximum legal male harvest rate cap from 60 to 50%. If handling mortality rate is greater than 30%, then we recommend increasing the threshold from 6600 to 11<|>000 metric tons of effective spawning biomass. Our recommended harvest strategy produces a mean yield similar to the current harvest strategy and safeguards against recruitment overfishing.


2014 ◽  
Vol 285 ◽  
pp. 39-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
André E. Punt ◽  
Dusanka Poljak ◽  
Michael G. Dalton ◽  
Robert J. Foy

1995 ◽  
Vol 52 (6) ◽  
pp. 1229-1246 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Zheng ◽  
M. C. Murphy ◽  
G. H. Kruse

A length-based population model was constructed for Bristol Bay red king crab, Paralithodes camtschaticus, incorporating stochastic growth, gradual recruitment over length, and a bowl-shaped pattern for instantaneous natural mortality as a function of length. A nonlinear least squares approach was used to estimate abundance, recruitment, and natural mortality. The model was applied to abundance and catch data from 1968 to 1993. The observed population abundances fit well with the model. Natural mortality was estimated to be three to six times higher in the early 1980s than during other periods. High natural mortality coupled with high harvest rates and followed by low spawning biomass may have contributed to the collapse of the population in the early 1980s and its continued lack of recovery. The stock–recruitment data estimated from the length-based model provided a good fit to both general and autocorrelated Ricker models. The general Ricker model is supported by strong recruitment associated with intermediate levels of spawning biomass and extremely low recruitment related to low spawning stock; the autocorrelated Ricker model fit the data slightly better and is supported by the fact that extremely strong and weak recruitment occurred successively over two separate periods.


2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terri S. Hogue ◽  
◽  
Samuel Saxe ◽  
Ryan Logan ◽  
Kyle Knipper ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 240 ◽  
pp. 105964
Author(s):  
Cory Lescher ◽  
Noëlle Yochum ◽  
Brad Harris ◽  
Nathan Wolf ◽  
John Gauvin

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1019
Author(s):  
Barbara Frączek ◽  
Aleksandra Pięta ◽  
Adrian Burda ◽  
Paulina Mazur-Kurach ◽  
Florentyna Tyrała

The aim of this meta-analysis was to review the impact of a Paleolithic diet (PD) on selected health indicators (body composition, lipid profile, blood pressure, and carbohydrate metabolism) in the short and long term of nutrition intervention in healthy and unhealthy adults. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials of 21 full-text original human studies was conducted. Both the PD and a variety of healthy diets (control diets (CDs)) caused reduction in anthropometric parameters, both in the short and long term. For many indicators, such as weight (body mass (BM)), body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC), impact was stronger and especially found in the short term. All diets caused a decrease in total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), albeit the impact of PD was stronger. Among long-term studies, only PD cased a decline in TC and LDL-C. Impact on blood pressure was observed mainly in the short term. PD caused a decrease in fasting plasma (fP) glucose, fP insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in the short run, contrary to CD. In the long term, only PD caused a decrease in fP glucose and fP insulin. Lower positive impact of PD on performance was observed in the group without exercise. Positive effects of the PD on health and the lack of experiments among professional athletes require longer-term interventions to determine the effect of the Paleo diet on athletic performance.


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