scholarly journals Relating marine ecosystem indicators to fishing and environmental drivers: an elucidation of contrasting responses

2009 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 787-795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason S. Link ◽  
Dawit Yemane ◽  
Lynne J. Shannon ◽  
Marta Coll ◽  
Yunne-Jai Shin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Ecosystem Sensitivity ◽  
Ecosystem Indicators ◽  
Proxy Indicators ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Ecosystem Drivers

Abstract Link, J. S., Yemane, D., Shannon, L. J., Coll, M., Shin, Y-J., Hill, L., and Borges, M. F. 2010. Relating marine ecosystem indicators to fishing and environmental drivers: an elucidation of contrasting responses. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 787–795. The usefulness of indicators in detecting ecosystem change depends on three main criteria: the availability of data to estimate the indicator (measurability), the ability to detect change in an ecosystem (sensitivity), and the ability to link the said change in an indicator as a response to a known intervention or pressure (specificity). Here, we specifically examine the third aspect of indicator change, with an emphasis on multiple methods to explore the “relativity” of major ecosystem drivers. We use a suite of multivariate methods to explore the relationships between a pre-established set of fisheries-orientated ecosystem status indicators and the key drivers for those ecosystems (particularly emphasizing proxy indicators for fishing and the environment). The results show the relative importance among fishing and environmental factors, which differed notably across the major types of ecosystems. Yet, they also demonstrated common patterns in which most ecosystems, and indicators of ecosystem dynamics are largely driven by fisheries (landings) or human (human development index) factors, and secondarily by environmental drivers (e.g. AMO, PDO, SST). How one might utilize this empirical evidence in future efforts for ecosystem approaches to fisheries is discussed, highlighting the need to manage fisheries in the context of environmental and other human (e.g. economic) drivers.

scholarly journals Seasonal biological carryover dominates northern vegetation growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Lian ◽  
Shilong Piao ◽  
Anping Chen ◽  
Kai Wang ◽  
Xiangyi Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Subsequent Growth ◽  
Ecosystem Models ◽  
Carryover Effect ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Sequestration Potential ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractThe state of ecosystems is influenced strongly by their past, and describing this carryover effect is important to accurately forecast their future behaviors. However, the strength and persistence of this carryover effect on ecosystem dynamics in comparison to that of simultaneous environmental drivers are still poorly understood. Here, we show that vegetation growth carryover (VGC), defined as the effect of present states of vegetation on subsequent growth, exerts strong positive impacts on seasonal vegetation growth over the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, this VGC of early growing-season vegetation growth is even stronger than past and co-occurring climate on determining peak-to-late season vegetation growth, and is the primary contributor to the recently observed annual greening trend. The effect of seasonal VGC persists into the subsequent year but not further. Current process-based ecosystem models greatly underestimate the VGC effect, and may therefore underestimate the CO2 sequestration potential of northern vegetation under future warming.

scholarly journals Marine ecosystem indicators are sensitive to ecosystem boundaries and spatial scale

2021 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 107522
Author(s):  
Kurt C. Heim ◽  
Lesley H. Thorne ◽  
Joseph D. Warren ◽  
Jason S. Link ◽  
Janet A. Nye
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Boundaries ◽  
Ecosystem Indicators

Distribution and abundance of euphausiids and pelagic amphipods in Kongsfjorden, Isfjorden and Rijpfjorden (Svalbard) and changes in their relative importance as key prey in a warming marine ecosystem

Polar Biology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (10) ◽  
pp. 1765-1784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Padmini Dalpadado ◽  
Haakon Hop ◽  
Jon Rønning ◽  
Vladimir Pavlov ◽  
Erik Sperfeld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Relative Importance

scholarly journals Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3301-3320 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. B. Rodgers ◽  
J. Lin ◽  
T. L. Frölicher
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Biological Productivity ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Ecosystem Drivers

Abstract. Marine ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes. Marine ecosystem drivers that contribute to stressing ecosystems – including warming, acidification, deoxygenation and perturbations to biological productivity – can co-occur in space and time, but detecting their trends is complicated by the presence of noise associated with natural variability in the climate system. Here we use large initial-condition ensemble simulations with an Earth system model under a historical/RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway 8.5) scenario over 1950–2100 to consider emergence characteristics for the four individual and combined drivers. Using a 1-standard-deviation (67% confidence) threshold of signal to noise to define emergence with a 30-year trend window, we show that ocean acidification emerges much earlier than other drivers, namely during the 20th century over most of the global ocean. For biological productivity, the anthropogenic signal does not emerge from the noise over most of the global ocean before the end of the 21st century. The early emergence pattern for sea surface temperature in low latitudes is reversed from that of subsurface oxygen inventories, where emergence occurs earlier in the Southern Ocean. For the combined multiple-driver field, 41% of the global ocean exhibits emergence for the 2005–2014 period, and 63% for the 2075–2084 period. The combined multiple-driver field reveals emergence patterns by the end of this century that are relatively high over much of the Southern Ocean, North Pacific, and Atlantic, but relatively low over the tropics and the South Pacific. For the case of two drivers, the tropics including habitats of coral reefs emerges earliest, with this driven by the joint effects of acidification and warming. It is precisely in the regions with pronounced emergence characteristics where marine ecosystems may be expected to be pushed outside of their comfort zone determined by the degree of natural background variability to which they are adapted. The results underscore the importance of sustained multi-decadal observing systems for monitoring multiple ecosystems drivers.

Personalized Key Drivers for Individual Responses in Regression Modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 15-30
Author(s):  
Stan Lipovetsky
Keyword(s):  
Cooperative Game Theory ◽  
Marketing Research ◽  
Regression Modeling ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Predictor Importance ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Numerical Estimations

Identification of personalized key drivers is useful to managers in finding a special set of tools for each customer for a better contingency to a higher satisfaction and loyalty and for diminishing risk and uncertainty of decision making. Finding the most attractive attributes of a product for a buyer, or the main helpful features of a medicine for a patient, can be considered via identifying the key drivers in regression modeling. The problem of predictor importance is usually considered on the aggregate level for a set of all respondents. This article shows how to identify a specific set of key drivers for each individual respondent. Two techniques are proposed: the orthonormal matrices used for the relative importance by Gibson and R. Johnson, and the cooperative game theory by Shapley value of predictors in regression. Numerical estimations show that a specific set of key drivers can be found for each respondent or customer, that can be valuable for managerial decisions in marketing research and other areas of practical statistical modeling.

The use of optimization techniques to model marine ecosystem dynamics at the JGOFS station at 47° N 20° W

1995 ◽  
Vol 348 (1324) ◽  
pp. 203-209 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Best Fit

A seven-compartment model of the mixed layer ecosystem was used to fit a time series of observations derived from data obtained during the 1989 JGOFS North Atlantic Bloom Experiment. A nonlinear optimization technique was used to obtain the best fit to the combined observation set. It was discovered that a solution which gave a good fit to primary production gave a bad fit to zooplankton and vice versa. The solution which fitted primary production also showed good agreement with a number of other independent data sets, but overestimated bacterial production. Further development is necessary to create a model capable of reproducing all the important features of the nitrogen flows within the mixed layer.

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