Application of hierarchical clustering to identify high risk pests to Sitka spruce: Ireland as a case study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catriona Duffy ◽  
Melanie G Tuffen ◽  
Rowan Fealy ◽  
Christine T Griffin
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Hierarchical Clustering ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Sitka Spruce ◽  
Picea Sitchensis ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
Biological Realism ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Invertebrate forest pests and pathogens can cause considerable economic losses and modern patterns of trade have facilitated the international movement of pest species on an unprecedented level. This upsurge in trade has increased the pathways available to high risk species, facilitating entry and potential establishment in nations where they were previously absent. To support policy and pest prioritization, pest risk analyses are conducted to decide ‘if’ and ‘how’ pests should be regulated in order to prevent entry or establishment; however, they cannot be carried out for every potential pest. This paper utilizes a hierarchical clustering (HC) approach to analyse distribution data for pests of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) in order to identify species of high risk to Ireland, as well as potential source regions of these pests. The presence and absence of almost a 1000 pests across 386 regions globally are clustered based on their similarity of pest assemblages, to provide an objective examination of the highest risk pests to Irish forestry. Regional clusters were produced for each taxon analysed including the Coleoptera, Diptera, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Nematoda, Lepidoptera and the Fungi. The results produced by the HC analysis were interpreted with regard to biological realism and climate. Biologically meaningful clusters were produced for each of the groups, except for the Diptera and Nematoda, and each of the species analysed were ranked within their group by a quantitative risk index specific to the island of Ireland. The impact of uncertainty in the distribution data is also examined, in order to assess its influence over the final groupings produced. The outputs from this analysis suggest that the highest risk pests for Ireland’s Sitka spruce plantations will originate from within Europe. Ultimately, Ireland could benefit from seeking regulation for some of the higher ranking pests identified in this analysis. This analysis provides the first of its type for Sitka spruce, as well as its application in Ireland. It also serves to highlight the potential utility of HC as a ‘first approach’ to assessing the risk posed by alien species to hitherto novel regions.

scholarly journals The Use of Lee and Co-Workers’ Index to Assist a Risk Adjusted Audit of Perioperative Cardiac Outcome

2008 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Moran ◽  
T. Ghidella ◽  
G. Power ◽  
A. S. Jenkins ◽  
D. Whittle
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Positive Result ◽  
Cardiac Event ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Cardiac Risk ◽  
Noncardiac Surgery ◽  
Frequent Use ◽  
Cardiac Outcome ◽  
The Impact

Lee and co-workers’ revised cardiac risk index was used to study the perioperative cardiac outcome of 296 patients. The index uses a history of ischaemic heart disease, congestive cardiac failure, diabetes treated with insulin, a creatinine greater than 180 μmol/l, cerebrovascular disease and high risk surgery as the risk factors involved in predicting a perioperative cardiac event. It was derived on the basis of data from patients over the age of 50 years undergoing elective, noncardiac surgery with an expected inpatient stay of two or more days. The presence of one, two and three or more risk factors predicted a risk of a major cardiac event of 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7 to 2.1), 3.6% (95% CI 2.1 to 5.6) and 9% (95% CI 5.5 to 13.8) respectively in Lee's derivation group of 2,893 patients. In our audit of 296 patients we observed a cardiac event rate of 0.8% (95% CI 0 to 2.3%), 6.7% (95% CI 1.6 to 10%) and 2% (95% CI 0 to 5.9%), in patients with one, two and three or more risk factors respectively. The more frequent use of ECGs and troponin levels in the routine postoperative care of high risk patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery is recommended on the basis of the frequency of a positive result and the impact of a positive result on a patient's management.

scholarly journals Improving Firm’s Economic and Environmental Performance Through the Sustainable and Innovative Environment: Evidence From an Emerging Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naveed Ahmad ◽  
Miklas Scholz ◽  
Esra AlDhaen ◽  
Zia Ullah ◽  
Philippa Scholz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Environmental Performance ◽  
Industrial Pollution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
The Impact

Businesses in the present era are dealing with a complex and unprecedented brew of social, environmental, and technological trends. This requires sophisticated, sustainability-based management. Yet organizations are often reluctant to place sustainability core to their business strategies with the mistaken belief that the costs associated with environmental investments outweigh the benefits. The Global Climate Risk Index has placed Pakistan on 5th position in the list of nations, most susceptible to climate change in its recent report. Pakistan lost the lives of 9,989 people, incurred economic losses of $ 3.8 billion, and faced 152 shocking climates between 1999 and 2018. Based on this information, it is established that Pakistan’s susceptibility to climate change is growing unprecedentedly and industrial pollution is one of the biggest contributors in this respect. The country needs to take emergency measures to address this issue. With this background, the present study aims to investigate the impact of environmental sustainability on environmental and economic performance (EP) with the mediating effect of environmental innovation (EI) in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan. The results show that environmental sustainability is a significant predictor of environmental performance and EP and EI mediates this relationship. The findings of the present study provide better insights to policymakers to address the environmental degradation, resulting from industrial pollution.

scholarly journals A New Relative Risk Index for Hospitals Exposed to Tsunami

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Baiguera ◽  
Tiziana Rossetto ◽  
Juan Palomino ◽  
Priyan Dias ◽  
Susana Lopez-Querol ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Healthcare Provision ◽  
Hospital System ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Survey Form ◽  
Functional Aspects ◽  
Hospital Building ◽  
The Impact

The failure of hospitals in recent tsunami have caused extensive social and economic losses. A simple but quantitative approach is required to assess the resilience of healthcare systems to tsunami, which relates not only to hospital building integrity, but also to maintaining hospital functionality. This paper proposes a new tsunami relative risk index (TRRI) that quantifies the impact of tsunami on critical units, (e.g. Intensive Care Unit, Maternity Ward, etc) in individual hospitals, as well as the impact on service provision across a network of hospitals. A survey form is specifically developed for collecting of field data on hospitals for the TRRI evaluation. In its current form TRRI is designed for hospital buildings of reinforced concrete construction, as these are the building types most commonly used worldwide for housing critical units. The TRRI is demonstrated through an application to three hospitals located along the southern coast of Sri Lanka. The TRRI is evaluated for three potential tsunami inundation events and is shown to be able to identify issues with both the building and functional aspects of hospital critical units. Three “what-if” intervention scenarios are presented and their effect on the TRRI is assessed. Through this exercise, it is shown that the TRRI can be used by decision makers to simply explore the effectiveness of individual and combined interventions in improving the tsunami resilience of healthcare provision across the hospital system.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal genetic variation of Drosophila suzukii in Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Petermann ◽  
Sabine Otto ◽  
Gerrit Eichner ◽  
Marc F. Schetelig
Keyword(s):  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
Drosophila Suzukii ◽  
Genetic Changes ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Invasive Pest Species ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Multiple Invasions ◽  
The Impact

AbstractNative to Southeast Asia, the spotted wing drosophila (SWD), Drosophila suzukii Matsumura, rapidly invaded America and Europe in the past 20 years. As a crop pest of soft-skinned fruits with a wide range of host plants, it threatens the fruit industry worldwide, causing enormous economic losses. To control this invasive pest species, an understanding of its population dynamics and structure is necessary. Here, we report the population genetics and development of SWD in Germany from 2017–19 using microsatellite markers over 11 different sample sites. It is the first study that examines SWD’s genetic changes over 3 years compared to multiple international SWD laboratory strains. Results show that SWD populations in Germany are highly homogenous without differences between populations or years, which indicates that populations are well adapted, migrate freely, and multiple invasions from outside Germany either did not take place or are negligible. Such high genetic variability and migration between populations could allow for a fast establishment of the pest species. This is especially problematic with regard to the ongoing spread of this invasive species and could bear a potential for developing pesticide resistance, which could increase the impact of the SWD further in the future.

Welfare Reform and the Delivery of Welfare-to-Work Programs to AAPIs: What Works?

2007 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Chow ◽  
Grace Yoo ◽  
Catherine Vu
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Welfare Reform ◽  
Asian American ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Personal Responsibility ◽  
Welfare To Work ◽  
Work Program ◽  
What Works ◽  
One Stop ◽  
The Impact

The passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act (PRWORA) of 1996 has major implications for low-income Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) populations. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the research currently examining the impact of welfare reform on AAPI recipients and the welfare-to-work services available to this population. This article highlights AAPI participation and their timing-out rates in California’s CalWORKs program and their barriers to transitioning to work. Four welfare-to-work program models and recommendations are presented to illustrate strategies that can be used to address the unique needs of AAPI in order to alleviate their high risk for timing-out: one-stop-shops, transitional jobs programs, providing comprehensive and family focused services, and additional research and evaluation of programs specific to assisting the AAPI population on CalWORKs.

THE MAIN DIRECTIONS OF ECONOMIC SUPPORT OF THE REGIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM OF THE POPULATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (11) ◽  
pp. 133-140
Author(s):  
E. V. DMITRIEVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Management ◽  
Security System ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Crisis Situations

The article considers topical issues of economic support for the development of the regional security system of the population against various risks. The dependence of the impact of the scale of crisis situations on economic activities in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which become a serious barrier to the sustainable development of the regions of the country, was investigated. The increasing importance of risks of economic losses from accidents and disasters at potentially dangerous facilities as a result of the complex influence of natural, manmade and fire factors has been established. An analysis was carried out and proposals were developed to implement the key tasks of the state in the field of ensuring the protection of the population and territories of the country from disasters in order to ensure the stability of the economy. The organizational structure, division of tasks and functions between officials, crisis management structures and responding units were analyzed, taking into account the reduction in current financial costs. On the basis of a study of the peculiarities of the regions of the country, recommendations were formed to fulfill the necessary tasks by the anti-crisis management bodies in the field of reducing economic damage on the basis of preventing crisis situations and ensuring fire safety. It is proposed to organize the practical application of a complex automated security system based on modern developments with the application of improving the qualities and efficiency of anti-crisis management processes in order to increase economic efficiency. Initial data were formed to reduce potential threats of a natural, man-made, fire and other nature in the regions using financial and economic mechanisms. It is proposed to implement a set of priority measures to further improve and increase the potential of economic support for the anti-crisis management system. The materials of the article can be used in planning the main directions of the development of the regional population security system and the implementation of socio-economic development programs.

Decision Aids for Generating Analytical Review Alternatives: The Impact of Goal Framing and Audit-Risk Level

2002 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Mueller ◽  
John C. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Cognitive Load ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Decision Aid ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Audit Risk ◽  
Goal Framing ◽  
Analytical Review ◽  
The Impact

An auditor generating potential explanations for an unusual variance in analytical review may utilize a decision aid, which provides many explanations. However, circumstances of budgetary constraints and limited cognitive load deter an auditor from using a lengthy list of explanations in an information search. A two-way between-subjects design was created to investigate the effects of two complementary approaches to trimming down the lengthy list on the number of remaining explanations carried forward into an information search. These two approaches, which represent the same goal (reducing the list) but framed differently, are found to result in a significantly different number of remaining explanations, in both low- and high-risk audit environments. The results of the study suggest that the extent to which an auditor narrows the lengthy list of explanations is important to the implementation of decision aids in analytical review.

scholarly journals Cisplatin +/− rucaparib after preoperative chemotherapy in patients with triple-negative or BRCA mutated breast cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maitri Kalra ◽  
Yan Tong ◽  
David R. Jones ◽  
Tom Walsh ◽  
Michael A. Danso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Neoadjuvant Therapy ◽  
Triple Negative ◽  
Residual Disease ◽  
Disease Free Survival ◽  
Parp Inhibition ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Risk Population ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPatients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) who have residual disease after neoadjuvant therapy have a high risk of recurrence. We tested the impact of DNA-damaging chemotherapy alone or with PARP inhibition in this high-risk population. Patients with TNBC or deleterious BRCA mutation (TNBC/BRCAmut) who had >2 cm of invasive disease in the breast or persistent lymph node (LN) involvement after neoadjuvant therapy were assigned 1:1 to cisplatin alone or with rucaparib. Germline mutations were identified with BROCA analysis. The primary endpoint was 2-year disease-free survival (DFS) with 80% power to detect an HR 0.5. From Feb 2010 to May 2013, 128 patients were enrolled. Median tumor size at surgery was 1.9 cm (0–11.5 cm) with 1 (0–38) involved LN; median Residual Cancer Burden (RCB) score was 2.6. Six patients had known deleterious BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations at study entry, but BROCA identified deleterious mutations in 22% of patients with available samples. Toxicity was similar in both arms. Despite frequent dose reductions (21% of patients) and delays (43.8% of patients), 73% of patients completed planned cisplatin. Rucaparib exposure was limited with median concentration 275 (82–4694) ng/mL post-infusion on day 3. The addition of rucaparib to cisplatin did not increase 2-year DFS (54.2% cisplatin vs. 64.1% cisplatin + rucaparib; P = 0.29). In the high-risk post preoperative TNBC/BRCAmut setting, the addition of low-dose rucaparib did not improve 2-year DFS or increase the toxicity of cisplatin. Genetic testing was underutilized in this high-risk population.

scholarly journals Polygenic burden has broader impact on health, cognition, and socioeconomic outcomes than most rare and high-risk copy number variants

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elmo Christian Saarentaus ◽  
Aki Samuli Havulinna ◽  
Nina Mars ◽  
Ari Ahola-Olli ◽  
Tuomo Tapio Johannes Kiiskinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Copy Number ◽  
Copy Number Variants ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Subjective Health ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Health Cognition

AbstractCopy number variants (CNVs) are associated with syndromic and severe neurological and psychiatric disorders (SNPDs), such as intellectual disability, epilepsy, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder. Although considered high-impact, CNVs are also observed in the general population. This presents a diagnostic challenge in evaluating their clinical significance. To estimate the phenotypic differences between CNV carriers and non-carriers regarding general health and well-being, we compared the impact of SNPD-associated CNVs on health, cognition, and socioeconomic phenotypes to the impact of three genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) in two Finnish cohorts (FINRISK, n = 23,053 and NFBC1966, n = 4895). The focus was on CNV carriers and PRS extremes who do not have an SNPD diagnosis. We identified high-risk CNVs (DECIPHER CNVs, risk gene deletions, or large [>1 Mb] CNVs) in 744 study participants (2.66%), 36 (4.8%) of whom had a diagnosed SNPD. In the remaining 708 unaffected carriers, we observed lower educational attainment (EA; OR = 0.77 [95% CI 0.66–0.89]) and lower household income (OR = 0.77 [0.66–0.89]). Income-associated CNVs also lowered household income (OR = 0.50 [0.38–0.66]), and CNVs with medical consequences lowered subjective health (OR = 0.48 [0.32–0.72]). The impact of PRSs was broader. At the lowest extreme of PRS for EA, we observed lower EA (OR = 0.31 [0.26–0.37]), lower-income (OR = 0.66 [0.57–0.77]), lower subjective health (OR = 0.72 [0.61–0.83]), and increased mortality (Cox’s HR = 1.55 [1.21–1.98]). PRS for intelligence had a similar impact, whereas PRS for schizophrenia did not affect these traits. We conclude that the majority of working-age individuals carrying high-risk CNVs without SNPD diagnosis have a modest impact on morbidity and mortality, as well as the limited impact on income and educational attainment, compared to individuals at the extreme end of common genetic variation. Our findings highlight that the contribution of traditional high-risk variants such as CNVs should be analyzed in a broader genetic context, rather than evaluated in isolation.

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