Utility of repeated therapeutic endoscopies for pediatric esophageal anastomotic strictures

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica L Yasuda ◽  
Gabriela N Taslitsky ◽  
Steven J Staffa ◽  
Susannah J Clark ◽  
Peter D Ngo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Endoscopic Therapy ◽  
Balloon Dilation ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Esophageal Leak ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Post Surgery ◽  
Initial Surgery ◽  
Anastomotic Strictures ◽  
History Of

Summary Anastomotic stricture is a common complication of esophageal atresia (EA) repair. Such strictures are managed with dilation or other therapeutic endoscopic techniques such as steroid injections, stenting, or endoscopic incisional therapy (EIT). In situations where endoscopic therapy is unsuccessful, patients with refractory strictures may require surgical stricture resection; however, the point at which endoscopic therapy should be abandoned in favor of repeat thoracotomy is unclear. We hypothesized that increasing numbers of therapeutic endoscopies are associated with increased likelihood of stricture resection. We retrospectively reviewed the records of patients with EA who had an initial surgery at our institution resulting in an esophago-esophageal anastomosis between August 2005 and May 2019. Up to 2 years of post-surgery endoscopy data were collected, including exposure to balloon dilation, intralesional steroid injection, stenting, and EIT. Primary outcome was need for stricture resection. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed. There were 171 patients who met inclusion criteria. The number of therapeutic endoscopies was a moderate predictor of stricture resection by ROC curve analysis (AUC = 0.720, 95% CI 0.617–0.823). With increasing number of therapeutic endoscopies, the probability of remaining free from stricture resection decreased. By Youden’s J index, a cutoff of ≥7 therapeutic endoscopies was optimal for discriminating between patients who had versus did not have stricture resection, though an absolute majority of patients (≥50%) remained free of stricture resection at each number of therapeutic endoscopies through 12 endoscopies. Significant predictors of needing stricture resection by univariate regression included ≥7 therapeutic endoscopies, Foker surgery for long-gap EA, fundoplication, history of esophageal leak, and length of stricture ≥10 mm. Multivariate analysis identified only history of leak as statistically significant, though this regression was underpowered. The utility of repeated therapeutic endoscopies may diminish with increasing numbers of endoscopic therapeutic attempts, with a cutoff of ≥7 endoscopies identified by our single-center experience as our statistically optimal discriminator between having stricture resection versus not; however, a majority of patients remained free of stricture resection well beyond 7 therapeutic endoscopies. Though retrospective, this study supports that repeated therapeutic endoscopies may have clinical utility in sparing surgical stricture resection. Esophageal leak is identified as a significant predictor of needing subsequent stricture resection. Prospective study is needed.

DOZ047.14: Endoscopic incisional therapy and other novel strategies for treatment of congenital esophageal stenosis

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
J L Yasuda ◽  
S J Staffa ◽  
S J Clark ◽  
P D Ngo ◽  
R W Jennings ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Endoscopic Therapy ◽  
Care Center ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Balloon Dilation ◽  
Esophageal Stenosis ◽  
Esophageal Leak ◽  
Durable Response ◽  
Endoscopic Techniques ◽  
Congenital Esophageal Stenosis ◽  
Anastomotic Strictures

Abstract Summary Management of congenital esophageal stenosis (CES) often involves dilation with reversion to myotomy or stricture resection in refractory cases.1,2 However, surgery often fails to produce durable response, with anastomotic strictures requiring ongoing dilation and stenotic symptoms plaguing more than half of the patients in published series.3 Methods In this study, the medical records of all patients with CES treated by our tertiary care center who had at least one endoscopy between July 2007 and October 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. Success was defined as full when the diet included all age-appropriate textures with dysphagia once per month or less, or partial when the diet included most textures with dysphagia at most 1–2 times per week. Results Thirty patients with CES had at least one endoscopic intervention. All patients had balloon dilation(s) and at least one other therapy such as endoscopic incisional therapy (EIT), steroid injection, or stenting. Esophageal vacuum-assisted closure (EVAC) was used for treatment or prevention of esophageal leak. Of patients who had EIT at their CES (N = 18), 14 (77.8%) achieved full (N = 13) or partial (N = 1) success with endoscopic therapy alone; 3 (16.7%) required surgery to achieve full (N = 3) success; 1 nonsurgical patient does not yet eat by mouth due to oral aversion. Of patients who did not undergo EIT at their CES (N = 12), 5 (41.7%) achieved full success with endoscopic therapy alone; 7 (58.3%) required surgery (2 full success, 4 partial success, and 1 does not eat by mouth due to airway comorbidities). The rate of surgical intervention was significantly lower in the group that received EIT (Fisher's exact test, P = 0.045). Twenty-five endoscopies (8.9%) were associated with complications, including esophageal leak (N = 21) or stent migration (N = 4). Of endoscopies with a complication, 16 (64%) involved EIT. Odds of complications after therapeutic endoscopies involving EIT were significantly higher than those without EIT (odds ratio 6.15; 95% CI (2.44, 15.52); P < 0.001). The rates of esophageal leak significantly decreased over time as the use of EVAC increased (P = 0.003). Conclusion EIT shows promise as an alternative to surgery in CES; however, further study is needed. Complementary endoscopic techniques such as injection, stenting, and EIT broaden the toolbox of the treating physician and may allow for avoidance of surgery in CES.

Anastomotic stricture indexes for endoscopic balloon dilation after esophageal atresia repair: a single-center study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinshi Huang ◽  
Junmin Liao ◽  
Shen Yang ◽  
Yanan Zhang ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Esophageal Atresia ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Balloon Dilatation ◽  
Anastomotic Stricture ◽  
Balloon Dilation ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Endoscopic Balloon Dilatation ◽  
Endoscopic Balloon

Summary We investigated changes in anastomotic stricture indexes (SIs) and stricture diameter (SD) between before and 6 months after the first dilatation in children with anastomotic stricture after esophageal atresia (EA) repair and identified predictors of medium-term dilatation success (success for at least 3 months). We retrospectively reviewed the records and measurement indexes of patients who underwent post-EA repair endoscopic balloon dilatation between November 2017 and August 2019 in our hospital. We identified diagnostic and performance indicators that predicted medium-term dilatation success by univariate and multivariate analyses and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Sixty patients (34 boys and 26 girls) showed post-EA repair anastomotic stricture. Paired sample t-tests showed that SD (P &lt; 0.001), upper pouch SI (U-SI, P &lt; 0.001), lower pouch SI (L-SI, P &lt; 0.001), upper pouch esophageal anastomotic SI (U-EASI, P &lt; 0.001) and lower pouch EASI (L-EASI, P &lt; 0.001) were significantly better at 6 months after than before the first dilatation. Logistic regression analysis showed that dilatation number (P = 0.002) and U-SI at 6 months after the first dilatation (P = 0.019) significantly predicted medium-term dilatation success. ROC curve analysis revealed that combining U-SI (cut-off value = 55.6%) and dilatation number (cut-off value = 10) had good accuracy in predicting medium-term dilatation success 6 months after the first dilatation (area under the curve-ROC: 0.95). In conclusion, endoscopic balloon dilatation significantly improved SD and SIs in children with post-EA repair anastomotic stricture. Dilatation number and U-SI at 6 months after the first dilatation were useful in predicting medium-term dilatation success and could represent a supplementary method to improve judgment regarding whether further dilatation is needed 6 months after the first dilatation.

scholarly journals AB0182 HEMOGLOBIN RATE AS A PREDICTOR OF SUBCLINICAL LEFT VENTRICULAR SYSTOLIC DYSFUNCTION IN RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1116.2-1116
Author(s):  
Y. Ben Abderrazek ◽  
R. Dhahri ◽  
W. Lahmar ◽  
M. Slouma ◽  
B. Louzir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction ◽  
Systolic Dysfunction ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Myocardial Deformation ◽  
Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
History Of

Background:The role of rheumatoid arthritis as an ischemic heart disease and heart failure risk factor is well acknowledged even if the physiopathological pathways are still debated. The effect of anemia on myocardial deformation has already been established and a hemoglobin level below 9g/dL was associated with a significantly lower global longitudinal strain (GLS) patients with no history of CVD or chronic inflammatory diseases.[1]Objectives:In the present study, we looked into the effect of anemia and hemoglobin on the myocardial impairement in RA patients.Methods:We conducted a monocentric cross-sectional study between march 2019 and september 2019 on 36 RA patients without any history of cardiovascular disease and non-altered left ventricular ejection fraction in the outpatient population of the rheumatology department of the military hospital of Tunis matched with 36 healthy control subjects. Both groups underwent conventional echocardiography and STE to measure GLS; subclinical left ventricular systolic dysfunction was defined as a GLS > −18%, and a complete blood cell count; anemia was defined as Hemoglobin levels < 12 g/dL for women and < 13 g/dL for men.Results:Myocardial deformation study revealed that rheumatoid arthritis patients had a significantly worse GLS than healthy controls (18.99±2.81% vs 20.42±1.33%; P=.015). We also observed that third of the RA patients had subclinical left ventricular systolic dysfunction.In our report 36% of RA patients were anemic. In our univariate analysis anemia was found to be significantly correlated with GLS (r=−0.368, P=.027) and hemoglobin was found to be the best predictor of subclinical LVSD in our ROC curve analysis (AUC=0.752, 95% CI: 0.577-0.927, P=.02). In our multivariate analysis anemia was the only factor that was independently related to subclinical LVSD (OR: 11.39, 95% CI: 1.57-82.89, P=.016).Figure 1.ROC curve analysis for Hemoglobin as a predictor of subclinical left ventricular systolic dysfunctionConclusion:To our knowledge, this is the first study to look into the relationship between GLS and anemia among RA patients, and now it is safe to say that anemia is yet another added burden on the myocardial function in RA patients that needs to be taken into account when discussing therapeutic action.References:[1]Zhou Q, Shen J, Liu Y, Luo R, Tan B, Li G. Assessment of left ventricular systolic function in patients with iron deficiency anemia by three-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiography. Anatol J Cardiol. 2017;18(3):194–9.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

scholarly journals Using Iron Studies to Target Testing for Hereditary Haemochromatosis in New Zealand

Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 2150-2150
Author(s):  
Rebecca O'Toole ◽  
Collette Bromhead ◽  
Kenneth R. Romeril
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Primary Care Physicians ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Hfe Gene ◽  
Molecular Testing ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Hereditary Haemochromatosis ◽  
History Of ◽  
Test Ordering

Abstract Objective: Hereditary haemochromatosis (HH) follows a prolonged pre-symptomatic phase. The clinical features of HH are non-specific and subsequently, an accurate diagnosis may not be reached until the irreversible manifestations of the disease are apparent. Genetic testing for SNPs of the HFE gene is diagnostic of HH; however it is not economically viable in New Zealand to screen all patients with molecular testing unless there is sound clinical, familial or biochemical evidence to indicate testing. Abnormalities in iron biochemical assays are often the first indicator of HH and it has now become widely accepted that transferrin saturation (TS) and serum ferritin (SF) are the best initial tests for HH (Bacon et al 2011; King and Barton, 2006). These results however, particularly SF, may be affected by other conditions, making interpretation difficult and often misunderstood e.g. acute phase response. There is currently no national guideline for requesting HFE testing in New Zealand and existing recommendations are based on international data. This study evaluates the correlation between the iron phenotype and HFE genotype to inform future guidelines and cost-effective clinical pathways specific to our population. Materials and Methods: We audited the results from 2388 patients genotyped for HFE at Aotea Pathology Ltd; Wellington, between 2007 and 2013, and compared their C282Y, H63D and S65C genotypes to their iron status as quantified by SF and TS, as well as serum iron (SI) and serum transferrin (ST). The predictive power of the iron studies markers was evaluated by Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and if a statistically significant association for a variable was seen, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated at varying intervals. Results: Test ordering patterns showed that the majority (62%) of HFE genotyping tests were ordered on the basis of an elevated SF alone, without a full iron studies profile performed (which includes TS). Furthermore, only 11% of these patients had a C-Reactive Protein (CRP) test performed, which is a clinically useful marker of inflammatory states to establish if an elevated SF is acute phase in origin. In ROC curve analysis, the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of TS is larger than any other marker and a decision threshold of 45% produces the most favourable outcomes for patients in statistical analysis. Our results show that there is little association between SF and individual HFE genotypes and that SF values < 1000 µg/L are relatively insensitive to genotype. A SF of >1000 μg/L was found in one at-risk patient (C282Y homozygote) who had a TS < 45%, which provides some evidence to support the incorporation of SF into a diagnostic screening strategy for HH. AUCs for SI are analogous to that of TS, however, the sensitivity is poor at cut-offs above the normal range. ST showed no statistically significant association with any HFE genotype in ROC curve analysis. Using the thresholds of SF ≥ 1000 µg/L or TS ≥ 45% for consideration of HFE genotyping, any additional misidentified C282Y homozygotes in this study cohort were found to have a family history of HH, highlighting the importance of HFE testing on this basis. Conclusion: We conclude that an elevated SF of <1000 μg/L alone is not a predictor of HH since these levels are commonly encountered in the normal population. Our analysis of test ordering patterns however; proves that local primary care physicians rely heavily on SF as a predictor of HH, and suggest that there is little adherence to existing guidelines with regard to TS. Based on the lack of CRP testing requested, it also appears that HFE genotyping is being inappropriately requested without consideration of other causes of elevated SF. On the contrary, this study confirms that TS is a more accurate marker of HFE-related iron overload than SF. All C282Y homozygous patients would have been identified using a diagnostic algorithm requiring a TS ≥ 45%, a SF ≥ 1000 µg/L and/or a family history of HH. The data yielded by this study could be used by primary care physicians as a clinical guide for screening to identify appropriate candidates for genetic testing of the HFE gene which will facilitate earlier detection of a higher number of at-risk individuals. This strategy offers clinically appropriate solution which will enhance the accuracy of HFE genotyping requests and improve the cost effectiveness of molecular testing. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Acute heart failure: predicting early in-hospital outcomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Santos ◽  
S Paula ◽  
I Almeida ◽  
H Santos ◽  
H Miranda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Acute Heart Failure ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Invasive Ventilation ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Patients (P) with acute heart failure (AHF) are a heterogeneous population. Risk stratification at admission may help predict in-hospital complications and needs. The Get With The Guidelines Heart Failure score (GWTG-HF) predicts in-hospital mortality (M) of P admitted with AHF. ACTION ICU score is validated to estimate the risk of complications requiring ICU care in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes. Objective To validate ACTION-ICU score in AHF and to compare ACTION-ICU to GWTG-HF as predictors of in-hospital M (IHM), early M [1-month mortality (1mM)] and 1-month readmission (1mRA), using real-life data. Methods Based on a single-center retrospective study, data collected from P admitted in the Cardiology department with AHF between 2010 and 2017. P without data on previous cardiovascular history or uncompleted clinical data were excluded. Statistical analysis used chi-square, non-parametric tests, logistic regression analysis and ROC curve analysis. Results Among the 300 P admitted with AHF included, mean age was 67.4 ± 12.6 years old and 72.7% were male. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 131.2 ± 37.0mmHg, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was 57.1 ± 23.5ml/min. 35.3% were admitted in Killip-Kimball class (KKC) 4. ACTION-ICU score was 10.4 ± 2.3 and GWTG-HF was 41.7 ± 9.6. Inotropes’ usage was necessary in 32.7% of the P, 11.3% of the P needed non-invasive ventilation (NIV), 8% needed invasive ventilation (IV). IHM rate was 5% and 1mM was 8%. 6.3% of the P were readmitted 1 month after discharge. Older age (p &lt; 0.001), lower SBP (p = 0,035) and need of inotropes (p &lt; 0.001) were predictors of IHM in our population. As expected, patients presenting in KKC 4 had higher IHM (OR 8.13, p &lt; 0.001). Older age (OR 1.06, p = 0.002, CI 1.02-1.10), lower SBP (OR 1.01, p = 0.05, CI 1.00-1.02) and lower left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) (OR 1.06, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.03-1.09) were predictors of need of NIV. None of the variables were predictive of IV. LVEF (OR 0.924, p &lt; 0.001, CI 0.899-0.949), lower SBP (OR 0.80, p &lt; 0.001, CI 0.971-0.988), higher urea (OR 1.01, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.005-1.018) and lower sodium (OR 0.92, p = 0.002, CI 0.873-0.971) were predictors of inotropes’ usage. Logistic regression showed that GWTG-HF predicted IHM (OR 1.12, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.05-1.19), 1mM (OR 1.10, p = 1.10, CI 1.04-1.16) and inotropes’s usage (OR 1.06, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.03-1.10), however it was not predictive of 1mRA, need of IV or NIV. Similarly, ACTION-ICU predicted IHM (OR 1.51, p = 0.02, CI 1.158-1.977), 1mM (OR 1.45, p = 0.002, CI 1.15-1.81) and inotropes’ usage (OR 1.22, p = 0.002, CI 1.08-1.39), but not 1mRA, the need of IV or NIV. ROC curve analysis revealed that GWTG-HF score performed better than ACTION-ICU regarding IHM (AUC 0.774, CI 0.46-0-90 vs AUC 0.731, CI 0.59-0.88) and 1mM (AUC 0.727, CI 0.60-0.85 vs AUC 0.707, CI 0.58-0.84). Conclusion In our population, both scores were able to predict IHM, 1mM and inotropes’s usage.

scholarly journals Presepsin values and prognostic nutritional index predict mortality in intensive care unit patients with sepsis: a pilot study

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuichiro Shimoyama ◽  
Osamu Umegaki ◽  
Noriko Kadono ◽  
Toshiaki Minami
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Prognostic Nutritional Index ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Log Rank Test ◽  
Nutritional Index

Abstract Objective Sepsis is a major cause of mortality for critically ill patients. This study aimed to determine whether presepsin values can predict mortality in patients with sepsis. Results Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Log-rank test, and multivariate analysis identified presepsin values and Prognostic Nutritional Index as predictors of mortality in sepsis patients. Presepsin value on Day 1 was a predictor of early mortality, i.e., death within 7 days of ICU admission; ROC curve analysis revealed an AUC of 0.84, sensitivity of 89%, and specificity of 77%; and multivariate analysis showed an OR of 1.0007, with a 95%CI of 1.0001–1.0013 (p = 0.0320).

scholarly journals Soluble cytotoxic T-lymphocyte–associated antigen 4 (sCTLA-4) as a potential biomarker for diagnosis and evaluation of the prognosis in Glioma

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiajia Liu ◽  
Xiaoyi Tian ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Xixiong Kang ◽  
Wenqi Song
Keyword(s):  
T Lymphocyte ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte ◽  
Tumor Grade ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Healthy Individuals ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Background The cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 (CTLA-4) is widely considered as a pivotal immune checkpoint molecule to suppress antitumor immunity. However, the significance of soluble CTLA-4 (sCTLA-4) remains unclear in the patients with brain glioma. Here we aimed to investigate the significance of serum sCTLA-4 levels as a noninvasive biomarker for diagnosis and evaluation of the prognosis in glioma patients. Methods In this study, the levels of sCTLA-4 in serum from 50 patients diagnosed with different grade gliomas including preoperative and postoperative, and 50 healthy individuals were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). And then ROC curve analysis and survival analyses were performed to explore the clinical significance of sCTLA-4. Results Serum sCTLA-4 levels were significantly increased in patients with glioma compared to that of healthy individuals, and which was also positively correlated with the tumor grade. ROC curve analysis showed that the best cutoff value for sCTLA-4 for glioma is 112.1 pg/ml, as well as the sensitivity and specificity with 82.0 and 78.0%, respectively, and a cut-off value of 220.43 pg/ml was best distinguished in patients between low-grade glioma group and high-grade glioma group with sensitivity 73.1% and specificity 79.2%. Survival analysis revealed that the patients with high sCTLA-4 levels (> 189.64 pg/ml) had shorter progression-free survival (PFS) compared to those with low sCTLA-4 levels (≤189.64 pg/ml). In the univariate analysis, elder, high-grade tumor, high sCTLA-4 levels and high Ki-67 index were significantly associated with shorter PFS. In the multivariate analysis, sCTLA-4 levels and tumor grade remained an independent prognostic factor. Conclusion These findings indicated that serum sCTLA-4 levels play a critical role in the pathogenesis and development of glioma, which might become a valuable predictive biomarker for supplementary diagnosis and evaluation of the progress and prognosis in glioma.

scholarly journals Predictive CT features for the diagnosis of primary pulmonary mucoepidermoid carcinoma: comparison with squamous cell carcinomas and adenocarcinomas

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohua Ban ◽  
Xinping Shen ◽  
Huijun Hu ◽  
Rong Zhang ◽  
Chuanmiao Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Ct Imaging ◽  
Squamous Cell Carcinomas ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Imaging Features ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Ct Features

Abstract Background To determine the predictive CT imaging features for diagnosis in patients with primary pulmonary mucoepidermoid carcinomas (PMECs). Materials and methods CT imaging features of 37 patients with primary PMECs, 76 with squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) and 78 with adenocarcinomas were retrospectively reviewed. The difference of CT features among the PMECs, SCCs and adenocarcinomas was analyzed using univariate analysis, followed by multinomial logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results CT imaging features including tumor size, location, margin, shape, necrosis and degree of enhancement were significant different among the PMECs, SCCs and adenocarcinomas, as determined by univariate analysis (P < 0.05). Only lesion location, shape, margin and degree of enhancement remained independent factors in multinomial logistic regression analysis. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve of the obtained multinomial logistic regression model was 0.805 (95%CI: 0.704–0.906). Conclusion The prediction model derived from location, margin, shape and degree of enhancement can be used for preoperative diagnosis of PMECs.

scholarly journals Mortality risk prediction in lupus patients complicated with invasive infection in the emergency department: LUPHAS score

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 1759720X1988555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanlong Wu ◽  
Jun Ma ◽  
Yuhong Zhou ◽  
Chao Tang ◽  
Feng Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Invasive Infection ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Qsofa Score

Background: Infection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed to establish a clinical prediction model for the 3-month all-cause mortality of invasive infection events in patients with SLE in the emergency department. Methods: SLE patients complicated with invasive infection admitted into the emergency department were included in this study. Patient’s demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics on admission were retrospectively collected as baseline data and compared between the deceased and the survivors. Independent predictors were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. A prediction model for all-cause mortality was established and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: A total of 130 eligible patients were collected with a cumulative 38.5% 3-month mortality. Lymphocyte count <800/ul, urea >7.6mmol/l, maximum prednisone dose in the past ⩾60 mg/d, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, and age at baseline were independent predictors for all-cause mortality (LUPHAS). In contrast, a history of hydroxychloroquine use was protective. In a combined, odds ratio-weighted LUPHAS scoring system (score 3–22), patients were categorized to three groups: low-risk (score 3–9), medium-risk (score 10–15), and high-risk (score 16–22), with mortalities of 4.9% (2/41), 45.9% (28/61), and 78.3% (18/23) respectively. ROC curve analysis indicated that a LUPHAS score could effectively predict all-cause mortality [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.86, CI 95% 0.79–0.92]. In addition, LUPHAS score performed better than the qSOFA score alone (AUC = 0.69, CI 95% 0.59–0.78), or CURB-65 score (AUC = 0.69, CI 95% 0.59–0.80) in the subgroup of lung infections ( n = 108). Conclusions: Based on a large emergency cohort of lupus patients complicated with invasive infection, the LUPHAS score was established to predict the short-term all-cause mortality, which could be a promising applicable tool for risk stratification in clinical practice.

scholarly journals Right choice of a method for determination of cut-off values: A statistical tool for a diagnostic test

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 30-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balkishan Sharma ◽  
Ravikant Jain
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Diagnostic Test ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Traditional Method ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Objective: The clinical diagnostic tests are generally used to identify the presence of a disease. The cutoff value of a diagnostic test should be chosen to maximize the advantage that accrues from testing a population of human and others. When a diagnostic test is to be used in a clinical condition, there may be an opportunity to improve the test by changing the cutoff value. To enhance the accuracy of diagnosis is to develop new tests by using a proper statistical technique with optimum sensitivity and specificity. Method: Mean±2SD method, Logistic Regression Analysis, Receivers Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and Discriminant Analysis (DA) have been discussed with their respective applications. Results: The study highlighted some important methods to determine the cutoff points for a diagnostic test. The traditional method is to identify the cut-off values is Mean±2SD method. Logistic Regression Analysis, Receivers Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and Discriminant Analysis (DA) have been proved to be beneficial statistical tools for determination of cut-off points.Conclusion: There may be an opportunity to improve the test by changing the cut-off value with the help of a correctly identified statistical technique in a clinical condition when a diagnostic test is to be used. The traditional method is to identify the cut-off values is Mean ± 2SD method. It was evidenced in certain conditions that logistic regression is found to be a good predictor and the validity of the same can be confirmed by identifying the area under the ROC curve. Abbreviations: ROC-Receiver operating characteristics and DA-Discriminant Analysis. Asian Journal of Medical Science, Volume-5(3) 2014: 30-34 http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ajms.v5i3.9296      

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