scholarly journals Comparison of Bayesian Random-Effects and Traditional Life Expectancy Estimations in Small-Area Applications

2012 ◽  
Vol 176 (10) ◽  
pp. 929-937 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. F. Jonker ◽  
F. J. van Lenthe ◽  
P. D. Congdon ◽  
B. Donkers ◽  
A. Burdorf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Small Area

scholarly journals Applying the Spatial EBLUP to Place-Based Policing. Simulation Study and Application to Confidence in Police Work

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 901-924
Author(s):  
David Buil-Gil ◽  
Angelo Moretti ◽  
Natalie Shlomo ◽  
Juanjo Medina
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Police Work ◽  
Best Linear Unbiased Predictor ◽  
Spatial Random Effects ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Best Linear Unbiased ◽  
Estimation Models

Abstract There is growing need for reliable survey-based small area estimates of crime and confidence in police work to design and evaluate place-based policing strategies. Crime and confidence in policing are geographically aggregated and police resources can be targeted to areas with the most problems. High levels of spatial autocorrelation in these variables allow for using spatial random effects to improve small area estimation models and estimates’ reliability. This article introduces the Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (SEBLUP), which borrows strength from neighboring areas, to place-based policing. It assesses the SEBLUP under different scenarios of number of areas and levels of spatial autocorrelation and provides an application to confidence in policing in London. The SEBLUP should be applied for place-based policing strategies when the variable’s spatial autocorrelation is medium/high, and the number of areas is large. Confidence in policing is higher in Central and West London and lower in Eastern neighborhoods.

Adaptive Hierarchical Bayes Estimation of Small Area Proportions

2017 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benmei Liu ◽  
Partha Lahiri
Keyword(s):  
Random Effects ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Hierarchical Bayes ◽  
Bayes Estimation ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Exponential Power ◽  
Power Class

Unit-level logistic regression models with mixed effects have been used for estimating small area proportions in the literature. Normality is commonly assumed for the random effects. Nonetheless, real data often show significant departures from normality assumptions of the random effects. To reduce the risk of model misspecification, we propose an adaptive hierarchical Bayes estimation approach in which the distribution of the random effect is chosen adaptively from the exponential power class of probability distributions. The richness of the exponential power class ensures the robustness of our hierarchical Bayes approach against departure from normality. We demonstrate the robustness of our proposed model using both simulated and real data. The results suggest that the proposed model works reasonably well to incorporate potential kurtosis of the random effects distribution.

scholarly journals Comparison of three small-area mortality metrics according to urbanity in Korea: the standardized mortality ratio, comparative mortality figure, and life expectancy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ikhan Kim ◽  
Hwa-Kyung Lim ◽  
Hee-Yeon Kang ◽  
Young-Ho Khang
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Standardized Mortality Ratio ◽  
Mortality Figure ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Mortality Ratio

Abstract Background: This study aimed to compare three small-area level mortality metrics according to urbanity in Korea: the standardized mortality ratio (SMR), comparative mortality figure (CMF), and life expectancy (LE) by urbanity.Methods: We utilized the National Health Information Database to obtain annual age-specific numbers of population and deaths for all neighborhood-level areas in Korea between 2013 and 2017. First, differences in the SMR by urbanity were examined, assuming the same age-specific mortality rates in all neighborhoods. Second, we explored the differences in ranking obtained using the three metrics (SMR, CMF, and LE). Third, the ratio of CMF to SMR by population was analyzed according to urbanity.Results: We found that the age-specific population distributions in urbanized areas were similar, but rural areas had a relatively old population structure. The age-specific mortality ratio also differed by urbanity. Assuming the same rate of age-specific mortality across all neighborhoods, we found that comparable median values in all areas. However, areas with a high SMR showed a strong predominance of metropolitan areas. The ranking by SMR differed markedly from the rankings by CMF and LE, especially in areas of high mortality, while the latter two metrics did not differ notably. The ratio of CMF to SMR showed larger variations in neighborhoods in rural areas, particularly in those with small populations, than in metropolitan and urban areas.Conclusions: In a comparison of multiple SMRs, bias could exist if the study areas have large differences in population structure. The use of CMF or LE should be considered for comparisons if it is possible to acquire age-specific mortality data for each neighborhood.

scholarly journals Comparison of three small-area mortality metrics according to urbanity in Korea: the standardized mortality ratio, comparative mortality figure, and life expectancy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ikhan Kim ◽  
Hwa-Kyung Lim ◽  
Hee-Yeon Kang ◽  
Young-Ho Khang
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Standardized Mortality Ratio ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Mortality Figure ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Small Area Level ◽  
Mortality Ratio

Abstract Background: This study aimed to compare three small-area level mortality metrics according to urbanity in Korea: the standardized mortality ratio (SMR), comparative mortality figure (CMF), and life expectancy (LE) by urbanity.Methods: We utilized the National Health Information Database to obtain annual small-area level age-specific numbers of population and deaths in Korea between 2013 and 2017. First, differences in the SMR by urbanity were examined, assuming the same age-specific mortality rates in all small-areas. Second, we explored the differences in ranking obtained using the three metrics (SMR, CMF, and LE). Third, the ratio of CMF to SMR by population was analyzed according to urbanity.Results: We found that the age-specific population distributions in urbanized areas were similar, but rural areas had a relatively old population structure. The age-specific mortality ratio also differed by urbanity. Assuming the same rate of age-specific mortality across all small-areas, we found that comparable median values in all areas. However, areas with a high SMR showed a strong predominance of metropolitan areas. The ranking by SMR differed markedly from the rankings by CMF and LE, especially in areas of high mortality, while the latter two metrics did not differ notably. The ratio of CMF to SMR showed larger variations in small-areas in rural areas, particularly in those with small populations, than in metropolitan and urban areas.Conclusions: In a comparison of multiple SMRs, bias could exist if the study areas have large differences in population structure. The use of CMF or LE should be considered for comparisons if it is possible to acquire age-specific mortality data for each small-area.

scholarly journals Differential Privacy Applications to Bayesian and Linear Mixed Model Estimation

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Abowd ◽  
Matthew J. Schneider ◽  
Lars Vilhuber
Keyword(s):  
Random Effects ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Differential Privacy ◽  
Predictive Distribution ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Posterior Predictive Distribution ◽  
Computationally Intensive

We consider a particular maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and a computationally intensive Bayesian method for differentially private estimation of the linear mixed-effects model (LMM) with normal random errors. The LMM is important because it is used in small-area estimation and detailed industry tabulations that present significant challenges for confidentiality protection of the underlying data. The differentially private MLE performs well compared to the regular MLE, and deteriorates as the protection increases for a problem in which the small-area variation is at the county level. More dimensions of random effects are needed to adequately represent the time dimension of the data, and for these cases the differentially private MLE cannot be computed. The direct Bayesian approach for the same model uses an informative, reasonably diffuse prior to compute the posterior predictive distribution for the random effects. The empirical differential privacy of this approach is estimated by direct computation of the relevant odds ratios after deleting influential observations according to various criteria.

Modeling Random Effects Using Global–Local Shrinkage Priors in Small Area Estimation

2018 ◽  
Vol 113 (524) ◽  
pp. 1476-1489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueying Tang ◽  
Malay Ghosh ◽  
Neung Soo Ha ◽  
Joseph Sedransk
Keyword(s):  
Random Effects ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Shrinkage Priors
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